Friday, May 12, 2023

Is There a Migrant/Asylum Crisis Going On in Germany?

No.

But there are around a dozen issues brewing, and the SPD-led coalition is in a worried posture....as are the sixteen German states.

First, lets note that around one-million Ukrainians.....mostly women and kids....temporarily reside in Germany, and have NOT asked for asylum status.   They've sought safe conditions until the war ends, and based on 'chatter'....I'd say tha the vast majority will leave within six months after the war ends.

Those one-million require lodging and German-gov't support....meaning money from each of the sixteen states.  

Second, if you go and review news reports over the past year or two.....a number of German schools are admitting that immigrant kids are having language issues, and the funding isn't there to really 'bump' them up.  Some of these kids are disenchanted, and they represent problems in the future....if actions aren't corrected.

Third, crime numbers are mostly where they were five years ago.  More cops have been hired, and in urban areas.....there's a fair amount of patrols that occur (I can attest to that in the Mainz, Wiesbaden, and Frankfurt areas). 

It's just that news reporting now talks about this....where five to ten years ago....only the worst stuff was reported.....so you see more.

You see more about knife crimes or assaults....because the public news sector has been accused so often of just avoiding the subject.  

Fourth, as far as I've seen....migrant numbers are leveling off or going down.  At the current pace for 2023, unless changes occur, I'd say 500,000 to 600,000 migrants are now possible.  Before 2013?  The average was around 200,000 a year, and most all of them had approved visas as they arrived (doing the paperwork in their home-country).  

This worries the sixteen states....because they'd like to see a controlled path. 

Finally, to housing.  Lets be honest....in the top forty cities of Germany, there is a crisis going on with affordable living.  The SPD coalition had a goal of x-number of apartments built per year, and in 2023....it'll miss the goal.  

If you were a town like Heidelberg and had 2,000 migrants that you trying to help find local housing?  Good luck with that.  If you do find a residence and settle up on the cost factor....that guy or gal, or family....probably won't be able to pay their living cost....for at least three or our years.  The burden falls back to the state....to pay what is outrageous rent situations. 

There is a mess here....which politically could trigger election chaos in 2024 and 2025.   

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