My Humble View On The EU Election From Yesterday

 I will offer seven observations:

1.  It's NOT the end of the world as some TV journalists on German TV tried to suggest yesterday.  They had the prior-to-the-election belief that left and left-of-center parties (not just in Germany) would do OK, while they lost a fair amount compared to five years ago.

2.  I'll just say that typically (comparing against 2019 and 2014 EU elections)....there's normally not a lot of advertising, program-chatter, promises or debates.  This year, for some odd reason....there was a ton of debates and public display of 'promises'.  Maybe the public got fed up with the fake-promise routine, or people just started to ask questions about all the 'free-stuff' being promised.

3.  There were over 20 'other' parties in the running (the Marx-Party of Germany for example....13,000 voters went for them across the country).  If you were into weird promises or hopes.....you had a chance to vote for any party of your choosing.

4.  Turn-out?  65-percent....which is decent.

5.  If you could say anything about German perception right now (June 2024)....it's that a fair number are simply skeptical of politicians, their 'promises', and that solutions can be formed. If you bring up migration issues....I would imagine a good one-third of German society is fairly disturbed and want some pretty harsh actions on problems.  You can add another one-third of society who see the gov't actions on migration issues so far as ineffective....yet they aren't pro-extreme-right because of the Nazi-chatter. 

6.  It's just an odd color graphic map of districts in Germany, and which party led in each district.   

Almost all of what was old 'West Germany' (say about 90 of those districts)....were CDU or CSU winning.  SPD-winning districts?  There are just 3.....that's it.  Green district wins?  I count 12 on the map.  

AfD (the far-right party)?  About 80-percent of the old DDR region (Eastern Germany)....went for AfD as the districts winner.

The SPD vote?  Extremely split throughout all the districts of Germany.

7.  Finally, all of this chatter leading to the September elections of three German states in the fall?  Well....yeah.

All three in eastern Germany (Brandenburg, Thuringia, and Sachsen.  

So here's the deal....if you look over these results....at least in Sachsen and Thuringia.....I'd expect the AfD to win (lead) in those two states.

Brandenburg?  AfD is polling 4 points higher than the CDU, and it'll be close.

If the AfD were to win all three state elections?  It'd create a number of talking problems for both the CDU and SPD (right-of-center and left-of-center). 

This issue will drive a lot of political chatter for the next four months.