It's likely to get shoved into the top ten news items for this week....as a murder associated with refugees. N-TV (a German commercial news network) carries the basic story this morning.
Out of Sankt Augustin (NW Germany, near Bonn)....parents called the cops on Friday over a missing daughter. The seventeen-year-old had gone out to meet up with another girl, but then went missing.
Sunday night, with 150 cops and emergency services folks looking....they finally found the body.....near a refugee shelter in a industrial park. Some evidence led onto an arrest, but no details on the guy involved yet (some people via social media suggest he's from the refugee center and a Kenyan, but there is absolutely no confirmation or evidence to support that).
The problem with these migrant-associated murders (probably averaging one every quarter now)....it's a small statistical average and not indicating a real immigrant or asylum issue....but, Germans look at the potential threat and view the significant numbers of migrants in various towns and cities as a problem.
I've commented in recent days.....a fair number of Germans have dumped statistical numbers and simply look at what they 'perceive' as a threat, and measure it in their own way. The journalists can't do much to calm them, and all the politicians can do is hire more cops (10,000 nationally will be hired in 2019/2020 on top of the normal number).
The key fact that few ever grasp? You can't find a single murder of a German by a migrant female over the past five years. In all cases, it's a male attacker....usually under the age of twenty-five. A behavioral problem with drugs or alcohol involved? Probably so, but no one wants to open that door and discuss the topic.
UPDATE: 4:30 PM, authorities now say that the Kenyan migrant guy admitted to the murder....a violent act was committed (not an accident). The guy in question....mixed German-Kenyan background (he actually grew up in Germany)....19 years old. He was in a refugee housing complex because he could not find normal housing/apartment offerings. The body of the girl? Actually in the room. No weapon was used....so there are some questions about what really happened.
Monday, December 3, 2018
Sunday, December 2, 2018
Computer Talk in Germany for Schools
In general, German states (the 16 of them) run their own school 'business'. So you can go from state to state....finding slight variations on how things are run....how teachers are hired....how certain books are used here but not in another state. Up until the 1930s....this was standard practice, then the Nazis got into the act, and made it a nationally-run program. After the war, the Bundestag leadership decided that they were revert back to a state-by-state program.
This past month or two....an issue has come up where the Bundestag is on a 'mission' to write itself back into some form of management over the state's school system. The particular 'slant'? Digitalization, basically the introduction of computers, rights for students to have computers, etc.
I'll reference part of this story back to the ARD (public German TV, Channel One) from this morning.
The big push? Well....to make this mandatory....the Bundestag wants to write this as a Constitutional Right. The first part of the plan has gone through....the Bundestag packaged this up and it passed there. But to be part of the Constitution....you have to go to the state chamber itself.....where the states have representatives and rights. Here, the Bundesrat....there's this little rule. If five of the sixteen state members stand up....saying 'no'....it can't be pass.
Well....five states stood up (Hessen and Bavaria are in the mix).
Their fear is that the Berlin crowd would have a strong hand over money/funding, and that would cripple any worries by individual states to monitor or lead their own education program.
In simple terms....they don't want Berlin-directed orders.
What kind of funding is the federal government offering? Five billion Euro. Is it enough? No one says. You can sit and imagine all the schools in Germany, the LAN system required, the TABs, the educational programs, etc.
My guess is that some of the negativity goes to the funding issue and the fact that everyone wants a funnel that isn't limited to three to five years....they want an eternal amount of money flowing each and every year....without having to go back and beg the Bundestag every couple of years for more cash flow. They have a point, but getting an eternal path of funding?
This past month or two....an issue has come up where the Bundestag is on a 'mission' to write itself back into some form of management over the state's school system. The particular 'slant'? Digitalization, basically the introduction of computers, rights for students to have computers, etc.
I'll reference part of this story back to the ARD (public German TV, Channel One) from this morning.
The big push? Well....to make this mandatory....the Bundestag wants to write this as a Constitutional Right. The first part of the plan has gone through....the Bundestag packaged this up and it passed there. But to be part of the Constitution....you have to go to the state chamber itself.....where the states have representatives and rights. Here, the Bundesrat....there's this little rule. If five of the sixteen state members stand up....saying 'no'....it can't be pass.
Well....five states stood up (Hessen and Bavaria are in the mix).
Their fear is that the Berlin crowd would have a strong hand over money/funding, and that would cripple any worries by individual states to monitor or lead their own education program.
In simple terms....they don't want Berlin-directed orders.
What kind of funding is the federal government offering? Five billion Euro. Is it enough? No one says. You can sit and imagine all the schools in Germany, the LAN system required, the TABs, the educational programs, etc.
My guess is that some of the negativity goes to the funding issue and the fact that everyone wants a funnel that isn't limited to three to five years....they want an eternal amount of money flowing each and every year....without having to go back and beg the Bundestag every couple of years for more cash flow. They have a point, but getting an eternal path of funding?
The IRA Suggestion
As we approach this CDU Party 'chief' internal election, Friedrich Merz has put one curious item on the table in the last day or two.....the suggestion of a IRA-type situation for Germans. I'll reference this via a ARD (German public TV, Channel One) article.
There are a lot of key things that you notice after a couple of years in Germany....but the missing IRA-type deal is one that pops up if you work for a German company.
On the list of 500 desires by the average working-class German? No. You can prioritize and ask folks about what their wishes and desires are, and a IRA-type program wouldn't typically come up. Most would say that they are already heavily taxed and there's just not that much money left that they could go and invest. On this, I would agree. You take out your income tax, your health insurance cost, your church tax, then your rent/mortgage, your utilities, and for the average guy....I doubt if they could throw more than 500 Euro a year at something like this.
The guys taking home 4,000 or more Euro a month? Oh, they might like this idea and maybe be able to funnel 3,000 Euro a year into some retirement fund with tax-credit incentives attached to it. You go and figure 30 years of contributions, dividends, and growth....you might have 150,000 Euro of a nest-egg sitting there at age 65.
So this being a big positive for the CDU to sell the general public? No. There might be fifteen-percent of the public who find it curious and worth discussing.
There are a lot of key things that you notice after a couple of years in Germany....but the missing IRA-type deal is one that pops up if you work for a German company.
On the list of 500 desires by the average working-class German? No. You can prioritize and ask folks about what their wishes and desires are, and a IRA-type program wouldn't typically come up. Most would say that they are already heavily taxed and there's just not that much money left that they could go and invest. On this, I would agree. You take out your income tax, your health insurance cost, your church tax, then your rent/mortgage, your utilities, and for the average guy....I doubt if they could throw more than 500 Euro a year at something like this.
The guys taking home 4,000 or more Euro a month? Oh, they might like this idea and maybe be able to funnel 3,000 Euro a year into some retirement fund with tax-credit incentives attached to it. You go and figure 30 years of contributions, dividends, and growth....you might have 150,000 Euro of a nest-egg sitting there at age 65.
So this being a big positive for the CDU to sell the general public? No. There might be fifteen-percent of the public who find it curious and worth discussing.
Saturday, December 1, 2018
The One in Four Story
A study came in the news today (via Focus news magazine)....which talks about German perceptions (not statistics but pure personal feeling), and this odd thing came up on Frankfurt (one of my more favorites German cities). It's a short two-line item buried in the story.
Since 2015, the polling reveals that from Frankfurt residents....one in four residents now try to avoid the region around the train station (the Bahnhof). Chief reason? Perceived crime (meaning just 'shady characters', drug usage, perceived lack of cops, etc). It doesn't matter if crime is rare around the Bahnhof....it's that people see something and it bothers them.
I can remember the Bahnhof from 1978, later in the mid-80s, still later here in the past twenty years. Every ten years, I'd say that the half-mile area around the Bahnhof has stepped down one degree, and you just shake your head. There's potentially a thousand drug addicts (heroin, etc) who live in the shadow of the Bahnhof now. You can walk via the tunnels from the sidewalk to the deepest point of the subway, and find a twenty to forty addicts at 7AM laying there from their morning 'juice'. If you make it to the sidewalk area....there's probably another two-hundred in some attempt to buy their stuff or find the right price.
Would I avoid the station? No. As long as you don't linger or stand there to admire some junkie laying there or some delusional guy yelling at the ceiling....it's probably OK. The area outside of the station? Taunusstrasse for example? Day or night, I'd advise you to go and find another way to get around that part of town.
But this really brings you to the topic of statistics not mattering and people simply having a perception of things gone wrong. Just having 'shady' characters is enough drive a German to a rooted feeling of a bad part of town. The fact that the other 99-percent of Frankfurt is fairly safe and uncomplicated? It doesn't matter to them. So with 700,000 local residents, if you used the one in four situation....that kinda leads onto 150,000 plus people in the city who'd prefer to avoid the train station. That in itself....is a significant factor.
Since 2015, the polling reveals that from Frankfurt residents....one in four residents now try to avoid the region around the train station (the Bahnhof). Chief reason? Perceived crime (meaning just 'shady characters', drug usage, perceived lack of cops, etc). It doesn't matter if crime is rare around the Bahnhof....it's that people see something and it bothers them.
I can remember the Bahnhof from 1978, later in the mid-80s, still later here in the past twenty years. Every ten years, I'd say that the half-mile area around the Bahnhof has stepped down one degree, and you just shake your head. There's potentially a thousand drug addicts (heroin, etc) who live in the shadow of the Bahnhof now. You can walk via the tunnels from the sidewalk to the deepest point of the subway, and find a twenty to forty addicts at 7AM laying there from their morning 'juice'. If you make it to the sidewalk area....there's probably another two-hundred in some attempt to buy their stuff or find the right price.
Would I avoid the station? No. As long as you don't linger or stand there to admire some junkie laying there or some delusional guy yelling at the ceiling....it's probably OK. The area outside of the station? Taunusstrasse for example? Day or night, I'd advise you to go and find another way to get around that part of town.
But this really brings you to the topic of statistics not mattering and people simply having a perception of things gone wrong. Just having 'shady' characters is enough drive a German to a rooted feeling of a bad part of town. The fact that the other 99-percent of Frankfurt is fairly safe and uncomplicated? It doesn't matter to them. So with 700,000 local residents, if you used the one in four situation....that kinda leads onto 150,000 plus people in the city who'd prefer to avoid the train station. That in itself....is a significant factor.
The Migrant Isle?
I saw this short piece in Focus (the German news magazine) this morning....chatting over Denmark and an idea which they are discussing and involving Lindholm Island.
About a 100 km south of Copenhagen....about 3 km away from any Danish land area, this island lays there. It's maybe 7 acres in size, and kinda noted for having zero people permanently living there.
This idea being discussed is that once you've come to Denmark for immigration or migration purposes, and you fail....you will agree to go back to the home-land, or they will settle you into the island for a unspecified waiting period (I suspect they mean forever).
Leaving the island? Well....you could probably swim off the island but you'd have to be capable of 3 km swims.
The Danes are blunt....it's not a prison. If you look over the Google imagery, there's no real buildings there to talk about so they'd have to build some for housing.
My guess....you might be open to accept this....getting fresh food daily, but after six months of island life, you probably would agree to go back to the home-country.
The odds that it'll pass or be acceptable in a EU court test? I have doubts. Most will suggest that it's obviously a prison-island and totally inhumane. The odd thing here is virtually all of the European countries have an island or two like this, and they could all make this discussion a serious one.
About a 100 km south of Copenhagen....about 3 km away from any Danish land area, this island lays there. It's maybe 7 acres in size, and kinda noted for having zero people permanently living there.
This idea being discussed is that once you've come to Denmark for immigration or migration purposes, and you fail....you will agree to go back to the home-land, or they will settle you into the island for a unspecified waiting period (I suspect they mean forever).
Leaving the island? Well....you could probably swim off the island but you'd have to be capable of 3 km swims.
The Danes are blunt....it's not a prison. If you look over the Google imagery, there's no real buildings there to talk about so they'd have to build some for housing.
My guess....you might be open to accept this....getting fresh food daily, but after six months of island life, you probably would agree to go back to the home-country.
The odds that it'll pass or be acceptable in a EU court test? I have doubts. Most will suggest that it's obviously a prison-island and totally inhumane. The odd thing here is virtually all of the European countries have an island or two like this, and they could all make this discussion a serious one.
How I Would Stack the 2021 German Chancellor Race
We are three years away from the next German national election. In roughly two years....the smoke will clear and the six significant parties will lay out their primary candidates. This is view of who is likely the candidates to replace Chancellor Merkel:
CDU/CSU: Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK) or Fredrich Merz
SPD: Olaf Scholz (currently Vice-Chancellor/Finance Minister)
Green Party: Robert Habeck
FDP: Christian Lindner
Linke Party: Katja Kipping or Bernd Riexinger
AfD Party: Jorge Meuthen
I pick this crowd mostly because of the tone of public attention going on and the increased number of appearances they've made in the past six months.
The problems in replacing Merkel? Well....you can start with the SPD's Scholz and look over his period as Hamburg mayor being something you'd go and brag about (the G-20 riot episode probably anchored him down in a negative light). He's not that dynamic of a speaker and I don't think he really captivates the typical average working-class German.
AKK? A mirror image of Merkel. Too many Germans want something different. Merz might attract a bigger crowd, but I suspect that the peak level of CDU votes has already occurred and either of these two will be limited to a max of 28-percent of the vote.
Habeck of the Greens? He's on some trend episode and captivates public attention. I could see him moving up to the 24-to-28 percent point.
Lindner, Kipping or Riexinger? They just aren't 'vote-magnets'. They can probably get their party (FDP or Linke) up to around eight to ten percent at best.
So you come to Meuthen of the AfD. In debates, he does well. But this is a party that has probably peaked out at around 16-percent of the national vote. Being a one-topic party is a negative, and if you could go two years without any serious migrant confrontational episode.....the numbers would slide.
So yeah, I'm suggesting a fairly close race with the Habeck of the Greens making a serious challenge, the SPD really in a marginal election, and the CDU not really capable of finding a true-replacement for Merkel. You could very well see the Habeck as Chancellor in 2021, and the SPD as a very junior-junior party of the coalition....perhaps requiring a third member to make it work.
CDU/CSU: Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK) or Fredrich Merz
SPD: Olaf Scholz (currently Vice-Chancellor/Finance Minister)
Green Party: Robert Habeck
FDP: Christian Lindner
Linke Party: Katja Kipping or Bernd Riexinger
AfD Party: Jorge Meuthen
I pick this crowd mostly because of the tone of public attention going on and the increased number of appearances they've made in the past six months.
The problems in replacing Merkel? Well....you can start with the SPD's Scholz and look over his period as Hamburg mayor being something you'd go and brag about (the G-20 riot episode probably anchored him down in a negative light). He's not that dynamic of a speaker and I don't think he really captivates the typical average working-class German.
AKK? A mirror image of Merkel. Too many Germans want something different. Merz might attract a bigger crowd, but I suspect that the peak level of CDU votes has already occurred and either of these two will be limited to a max of 28-percent of the vote.
Habeck of the Greens? He's on some trend episode and captivates public attention. I could see him moving up to the 24-to-28 percent point.
Lindner, Kipping or Riexinger? They just aren't 'vote-magnets'. They can probably get their party (FDP or Linke) up to around eight to ten percent at best.
So you come to Meuthen of the AfD. In debates, he does well. But this is a party that has probably peaked out at around 16-percent of the national vote. Being a one-topic party is a negative, and if you could go two years without any serious migrant confrontational episode.....the numbers would slide.
So yeah, I'm suggesting a fairly close race with the Habeck of the Greens making a serious challenge, the SPD really in a marginal election, and the CDU not really capable of finding a true-replacement for Merkel. You could very well see the Habeck as Chancellor in 2021, and the SPD as a very junior-junior party of the coalition....perhaps requiring a third member to make it work.
In the Season of Gluhwein
In this period of the four weeks prior to Christmas in Germany.....Gluhwein or mulled wine....is often seen in markets or served at private parties.
The best description of it? Red wine....with various spices added (occasionally raisins), served hot or warm.
It's mostly in the traditional form of alcohol, but if you ask....there are often non-alcoholic versions which can be offered (even to kids).
Warming you up in a outdoor and chilly environment? Yes. Getting you dopey drunk? One single cup won't do it. If you were to consume three to five cups in a short period of time? Maybe. Some Germans would suggest that the heated wine gets into your system quicker, and that's one reason to avoid more than one cup. The alcohol content often differs....meaning you could have a cup with five-percent alcohol, or one with nine-percent alcohol.
Quality? This gets into a big long debate. If you walk into a major grocery, you can generally buy the single bottles (giving you around five to six cups). Most would prefer to sell it to you in six-pack boxes. The quality stuff....probably goes for 20 to 30 Euro for a six-pack case. The cheaper stuff would go for the 15 to 20 Euro for a six-pack case. Premium stuff made in Sweden and selling for 10 Euro a bottle? Well....the typical German would laugh and just suggest that it's Gluhwein....not some premium drink....that you are wasting your money.
Any reason to avoid it? Well....if you have sugar issues....skip it (it's loaded with sugar). I'd also go and suggest that if this is bitter cold (say below freezing and windy)....standing around for twenty minutes is not that smart in an open area.
The best description of it? Red wine....with various spices added (occasionally raisins), served hot or warm.
It's mostly in the traditional form of alcohol, but if you ask....there are often non-alcoholic versions which can be offered (even to kids).
Warming you up in a outdoor and chilly environment? Yes. Getting you dopey drunk? One single cup won't do it. If you were to consume three to five cups in a short period of time? Maybe. Some Germans would suggest that the heated wine gets into your system quicker, and that's one reason to avoid more than one cup. The alcohol content often differs....meaning you could have a cup with five-percent alcohol, or one with nine-percent alcohol.
Quality? This gets into a big long debate. If you walk into a major grocery, you can generally buy the single bottles (giving you around five to six cups). Most would prefer to sell it to you in six-pack boxes. The quality stuff....probably goes for 20 to 30 Euro for a six-pack case. The cheaper stuff would go for the 15 to 20 Euro for a six-pack case. Premium stuff made in Sweden and selling for 10 Euro a bottle? Well....the typical German would laugh and just suggest that it's Gluhwein....not some premium drink....that you are wasting your money.
Any reason to avoid it? Well....if you have sugar issues....skip it (it's loaded with sugar). I'd also go and suggest that if this is bitter cold (say below freezing and windy)....standing around for twenty minutes is not that smart in an open area.
The EU Seat at the UN Game?
It wasn't front-page news, and I doubt if more than one-percent of Germans actually caught the piece....but the vice-Chancellor of Germany/Finance Minister (Olaf Schloz) spoke up at a speech and made this suggestion....converting the France seat at the UN into a EU seat.
It was Schloz speaking.....not Chancellor Merkel.
How this would be sold? The EU needs to speak with one voice, and at the UN....this one voice would make a difference. The fact that every EU member has a seat within the UN? When you get down to the 'five' (US, UK, China, Russia and France)....they all need to vote to approve something, or it simply doesn't pass.
Would France give up this seat? I have my doubts. There's not much to gain other than appeasing the pro-EU crowd. Maybe there are enough pro-EU folks around in France to push this through. But if you left this to the general public or to a vote.....no, it probably wouldn't change.
So this was just a speech without much value? More or less.
It was Schloz speaking.....not Chancellor Merkel.
How this would be sold? The EU needs to speak with one voice, and at the UN....this one voice would make a difference. The fact that every EU member has a seat within the UN? When you get down to the 'five' (US, UK, China, Russia and France)....they all need to vote to approve something, or it simply doesn't pass.
Would France give up this seat? I have my doubts. There's not much to gain other than appeasing the pro-EU crowd. Maybe there are enough pro-EU folks around in France to push this through. But if you left this to the general public or to a vote.....no, it probably wouldn't change.
So this was just a speech without much value? More or less.
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