First, he'd give a letter to President Steinmeier, and he'd (Steinmeier) ask Merz to stay as a 'temp'. He can decline this, and Steinmeier would then ask the SPD back-up Chancellor (Lars Klingbeil) to assume the job temporarily.
We move to step two then.
A new Chancellor must then be elected by the Bundestag under Article 63. The process has up to three rounds: The President proposes a candidate (one assumes a CDU-guy/gal), but he might shock folks by picking a non-party person. That person needs an absolute majority of all 630 Bundestag members (316 votes).
If that fails, the Bundestag has 14 days to elect someone with an absolute majority on its own.....meaning no suggestion by the President works.
If that also fails, a third ballot is held. A relative majority (most votes) is then enough. The President then decides whether to appoint that person (even if it produces a minority government) or dissolve the Bundestag and call snap elections.
Minority gov't? It'd dampen 2027 state elections, and likely hurt both the CDU-CSU Party and the SPD Party.
Getting a SPD Chancellor out of this? I'd give it better than 50-percent odds. Top guy? Boris Pistorius (Defense Minister currently).
Helpful for the AfD brand? Some folks might argue that having Merz resign...is very helpful for the AfD brand.
Steinmeier gone in January 2027? Well....term ends, and there's folks planning nominees.....probably to have a Bundestag 'vote' by November. CDU might be hoping that they get their person put into place, and a Merz-exit would have better conditions. Could this secret CDU 'winner' put their own name up for the Chancellor job? The law has conditions....to prevent that.
Any of this scenario being discussed currently...in the open? Oddly....no.
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