Likely the last poll before Sunday's election, by INSA:
AfD: 43-percent
CDU: 22-percent
SPD: 7-percent
Linke: 12-percent
Greens: 5-percent
So if you take the math-outcomes....projected seats....AfD will not have enough to avoid a coalition, and therefore....will not be the one building the coalition (left to the CDU).
Awkward position? Well....for the CDU....they'd have to partner with the Linke folks, and this is fairly big negative (nation-wide view) for CDU-voters.
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