Well....it has become a bigger deal than normal....because AfD has the potential to win without the need for a coalition (meaning no partners).
If I offered 'odds'? I'd say it's a 30-percent chance that AfD will get in the 44-to-45 percent range.
No matter what....AfD gets first-place....probably unable to gain a coalition, and the CDU (2nd place) is put into a crappy position....where they form a state-gov't with the SPD, Greens, and Linke Party.
In the aftermath of this gov't form....I might go and suggest nearly half of CDU-voters across the nation grumbling about the conditions laid down by the Linke Party to get their partnership. In simple terms....it'll be discussed a good bit, and be seen as a negative for the CDU leadership.
The idea that some CDU-voters in the state are already grumbling and might vote AfD....just to send a message? There might be a few, but it probably won't change the outcome of the election.
The news media 'framing' a lot of anti-AfD chatter? Yes.
Last night....I watched a commercial TV hour where they tried to lay out the story of AfD n the state. They used 'good' refugees (working, tax-paying) to show that deporting is a bad agenda to support.
So...come Sunday evening...the results will be laid out. If you see AfD up around 44-percent or more....it's a big deal. If you see the CDU bosses a bit gloomy over the prospect of a coalition where they have to partner with the Linke Party....that's also a big deal.
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