Over the past five years, I've essayed a number of pieces talking over the disenchantment of working-class people who used to be politically attached to the SPD Party (the left-of-center group, more attuned to the US Democratic Party). Those with frustration will make the observation that the party no longer cares about working people, ensuring jobs, or keeping wages/taxes at a reasonable level.
So today, there's a short piece that came up via Focus (the German news magazine), which brings up an 'icon' who belonged to the party and made public forums into a passionate episode.
Susanne Neumann was actually a recognizable individual, who was a cleaning lady. Yes....a working-class German....who who was noted as very sharp on politics, economics and the problems of the working class German.
She'd appeared on various chat forums and was able to make an impression on the general public.
So it came up yesterday.....she's quitting the SPD Party.....giving up on them.
Going to another party? No, she didn't say that. My impression is that she's just another disenfranchised German who doesn't see any need to support the political climate.
Will the public chat forums bring her out again? Right now....we are three years away from another national election, and I think the SPD is trying to rebuild their situation. The chat forum folks might try to avoid people like Neumann because she is awful direct in her confrontational style. But this is a sign of the times.....things are evolving.
Wednesday, December 5, 2018
Tuesday, December 4, 2018
The 'Slippery Slopes' of German Deportation
Prior to 2013, and our current period of 'migration-turbulence'....it's safe to say that deportation rarely ever came up as a regional or national topic in Germany. A great portion of those who wanted the German visa....applied in their home-country, passing the paperwork drill, and they at least had a statistically high average of staying. Since 2013, and with the new method of just showing up and letting the German authorities know that you are already in the country.....has led onto the problem of deportation.
Who grants visas or deportation paperwork? BAMF, the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, based out of Nuremberg. Note....this is a federal agency within the German government. They receive the paperwork, note priorities given to them by the Bundestag figures, and assign eventually a pass-fail situation to the paperwork.
Who actually deports you? Curiously, the state authorities (remember, there are 16 German states).
Generally, with a failed visa application....most everyone immediately goes to the German system (regionally) with an appeal. They will receive help to funnel a request to delay the deportation, and attempt to get their case heard. Virtually every single appeal is processed and heard by a regional/state judge. Statistics occasionally come up and somewhere in the 10-to-15 percent range of folks with appeals....win. That means the bulk.....fail on appeal.
The chief argument that comes up next? Even with a deportation order....the pro-asylum folks will then suggest that the country that the deportee is supposed to return to.....is too dangerous (either in civil war or just regular war). This argument typically does work for Syria and Iraq to some degree, but their rate of acceptance is rather high for visa applications (usually over 95-percent). Afghanistan? Well....that's different.
This came up today in the news....our regional public TV folks.....HR....did a report on what was to be a deportation out of Frankfurt, via our local airport.
The deportation authorities had fourteen individuals set for yesterday's deportation effort.....all to be flown back to Afghanistan. A pro-asylum group was opening criticizing the effort....wanting to delay the deportation.
The primary backers of the pro-asylum group? The Green Party of Hessen.
Under the criticism of this effort.....the chief issue.....is it safe in Afghanistan? Most folks would tend to say no. Between bombings, continued thug-behavior, and radical Islam....on the safe scale of one to ten....it probably only gets a 'three'.
But if some guy (it's mostly all guys who end up in this process.....you rarely have women who apply for asylum/immigration).....has failed the process, what exactly do you want to do with him? In this case, the pro-asylum folks can't really answer that question. There in....lies this enormous pit of public discontent.
Nationally, polls will tell you that Germans are fed up with this long line of failed visa applicants....still remaining in Germany.....a year, even two years....after they've failed the visa and the appeal.
Naturally, these Germans would like to hold someone responsible (like some minister in Berlin, or the Chancellor herself). But they aren't in charge of the deportation efforts. So they try to find the state authority in charge.....but that's always a mystery as to who runs the program and why the deportation effort is lagging. State by state, things are hindered in various ways.
Some attempt came up in early 2018....to have a national program of deportation, and a couple of deportation centers where you'd stack up the potential deportees to hold until their flight is arranged. This effort to plan this and get coalition acceptance (by the SPD) ran into various issues. Some parts of this have been implemented....some were pushed back.
Logically speaking, if you failed the visa process and the dangers of your home-country exist....what can be done? This is where people sit and talk for hours without any real end-point. If the guy had applied from his home-country in the first place and been fully reviewed while in the home-country....the odds are that the bulk of applicants would fail the visa application, and still be in their home-country....thus not creating this deportation episode. It's best not to suggest that, because it really irritates the pro-asylum folks.
A mess? Yes. And politically, it drains enthusiasm for various political parties. They can't fix this, or resolve it....to make the average voter happy.
Who grants visas or deportation paperwork? BAMF, the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, based out of Nuremberg. Note....this is a federal agency within the German government. They receive the paperwork, note priorities given to them by the Bundestag figures, and assign eventually a pass-fail situation to the paperwork.
Who actually deports you? Curiously, the state authorities (remember, there are 16 German states).
Generally, with a failed visa application....most everyone immediately goes to the German system (regionally) with an appeal. They will receive help to funnel a request to delay the deportation, and attempt to get their case heard. Virtually every single appeal is processed and heard by a regional/state judge. Statistics occasionally come up and somewhere in the 10-to-15 percent range of folks with appeals....win. That means the bulk.....fail on appeal.
The chief argument that comes up next? Even with a deportation order....the pro-asylum folks will then suggest that the country that the deportee is supposed to return to.....is too dangerous (either in civil war or just regular war). This argument typically does work for Syria and Iraq to some degree, but their rate of acceptance is rather high for visa applications (usually over 95-percent). Afghanistan? Well....that's different.
This came up today in the news....our regional public TV folks.....HR....did a report on what was to be a deportation out of Frankfurt, via our local airport.
The deportation authorities had fourteen individuals set for yesterday's deportation effort.....all to be flown back to Afghanistan. A pro-asylum group was opening criticizing the effort....wanting to delay the deportation.
The primary backers of the pro-asylum group? The Green Party of Hessen.
Under the criticism of this effort.....the chief issue.....is it safe in Afghanistan? Most folks would tend to say no. Between bombings, continued thug-behavior, and radical Islam....on the safe scale of one to ten....it probably only gets a 'three'.
But if some guy (it's mostly all guys who end up in this process.....you rarely have women who apply for asylum/immigration).....has failed the process, what exactly do you want to do with him? In this case, the pro-asylum folks can't really answer that question. There in....lies this enormous pit of public discontent.
Nationally, polls will tell you that Germans are fed up with this long line of failed visa applicants....still remaining in Germany.....a year, even two years....after they've failed the visa and the appeal.
Naturally, these Germans would like to hold someone responsible (like some minister in Berlin, or the Chancellor herself). But they aren't in charge of the deportation efforts. So they try to find the state authority in charge.....but that's always a mystery as to who runs the program and why the deportation effort is lagging. State by state, things are hindered in various ways.
Some attempt came up in early 2018....to have a national program of deportation, and a couple of deportation centers where you'd stack up the potential deportees to hold until their flight is arranged. This effort to plan this and get coalition acceptance (by the SPD) ran into various issues. Some parts of this have been implemented....some were pushed back.
Logically speaking, if you failed the visa process and the dangers of your home-country exist....what can be done? This is where people sit and talk for hours without any real end-point. If the guy had applied from his home-country in the first place and been fully reviewed while in the home-country....the odds are that the bulk of applicants would fail the visa application, and still be in their home-country....thus not creating this deportation episode. It's best not to suggest that, because it really irritates the pro-asylum folks.
A mess? Yes. And politically, it drains enthusiasm for various political parties. They can't fix this, or resolve it....to make the average voter happy.
Former Post Conversion
One of the former US military sites in Wiesbaden....the smaller barracks area along Wiesbadener Strasse....going along the river and heading toward the bridge to cross the Rhine into Mainz.....came up in the news today.
The city of Wiesbaden announced that the smaller former Army post will be converted over to residential housing. No dates were mentioned, but you can figure it's at least three years into the future before you see this completed.
There's also a line or two of text indicating a new school would be part of the long-term planning for the site.
This is one of the four sites in the Wiesbaden area which have been turned over to the state agency and slated for future German use (the American Arms hotel area is slated to be torn down in 2019) and a condo type structure will be going up there.
The city of Wiesbaden announced that the smaller former Army post will be converted over to residential housing. No dates were mentioned, but you can figure it's at least three years into the future before you see this completed.
There's also a line or two of text indicating a new school would be part of the long-term planning for the site.
This is one of the four sites in the Wiesbaden area which have been turned over to the state agency and slated for future German use (the American Arms hotel area is slated to be torn down in 2019) and a condo type structure will be going up there.
Swinging Axe Story
If you go three hours NE of Wiesbaden.....while still in the state of Hessen, you will eventually come to Witzenhausen (a town of 15,000 residents).
The Christmas market business opened up this past week, and over the weekend.....they had this fairly chaotic event happen.
At some point, Saturday evening around 10:30 PM.....a drunk Libyan migrant came upon the market area where folks were drinking Gluhwein and partying. The 38-year old? Well....he had a hand-axe in his hand....waving it around, and shouting out 'God is great' in Arabic.
As you can imagine, this freaked out Germans big-time.
They call the cops and it takes a few minutes for them to arrive. Some folks had watched the guy (he never swung at or hurt anyone. After he'd stepped through the market.....he got on a bike and rode off. Cops got a description and knew the direction he was going.
The drunk guy ended back at some apartment, where the cops soon arrived and arrested him.
Charges? Unknown. He was detained for a number of hours, and I suspect he'll have to appear in front of some judge. The hand-axe? He'll probably have to hand that over to the cops.
The problem here is that Germans look at situations like this.....perceive some threat, and then start to be reactionary. You can't blame them. In this case? The drunk Libyan may have done some drunken joke and didn't realize how far it would go or how it'd be perceived. The odds that more cops will be deployed in this village Christmas market area? I'd bet you see it tripled over the next weekend or two....to reassure the public of safety.
The Christmas market business opened up this past week, and over the weekend.....they had this fairly chaotic event happen.
At some point, Saturday evening around 10:30 PM.....a drunk Libyan migrant came upon the market area where folks were drinking Gluhwein and partying. The 38-year old? Well....he had a hand-axe in his hand....waving it around, and shouting out 'God is great' in Arabic.
As you can imagine, this freaked out Germans big-time.
They call the cops and it takes a few minutes for them to arrive. Some folks had watched the guy (he never swung at or hurt anyone. After he'd stepped through the market.....he got on a bike and rode off. Cops got a description and knew the direction he was going.
The drunk guy ended back at some apartment, where the cops soon arrived and arrested him.
Charges? Unknown. He was detained for a number of hours, and I suspect he'll have to appear in front of some judge. The hand-axe? He'll probably have to hand that over to the cops.
The problem here is that Germans look at situations like this.....perceive some threat, and then start to be reactionary. You can't blame them. In this case? The drunk Libyan may have done some drunken joke and didn't realize how far it would go or how it'd be perceived. The odds that more cops will be deployed in this village Christmas market area? I'd bet you see it tripled over the next weekend or two....to reassure the public of safety.
CDU Political Chatter
Last night, ARD (public TV in Germany, Channel One) featured roughly 2.5 hours of documentary news and forum chat over the CDU 'battle' to replace Merkel as head of the CDU Party. A major topic for most Germans? Not so much, but it more or less will indicate who the likely next Chancellor will be after 2021's election.
So this started at 8:15 PM with a 45-minute documentary piece entitled 'Der Machtkampf'. You can go to the site and for the next week or two....review the piece (all in German). It's very detailed and examines the history on the CDU process.
The second piece came on at 9:00 PM, Hart Aber Fair, with a live chat....five guests with one moderator. The video feed is there for you to follow the piece.....all in German of course.
For the most part, Jens Spahn is ruled out (his time has yet to come). So it's a two-person race.
Is it guaranteed that one of these two will be the next Chancellor after the 2021 election? No. There are various scenarios where the SPD might win, or even the Green Party.
This vote? It's limited to the national membership of the CDU Party.
Interest of regular citizens? I would suggest that people are following the story but most just want an idea of who follows Merkel. If you use a poll from spring of 2017....around two-thirds of German society want a new leadership situation. Some might go and suggest that they want some dramatic person like Kohl or Schmidt to arrive on the scene....that the Merkel years have been missing that dynamic leadership.
The one thing that you might take from the 2.5 hour news and chat piece laid out....the 500-pound AfD guerrilla still sits in the room, and actively affects politics. The EU election in 2019, with the three German state elections (all in the east)? All affected by the AfD. Once this immigration negativity started up....the Bundestag players (not just the CDU) were all unwittingly helping to bring the Frankenstein-like political creature into being, and are forced to sit there with various scenarios affecting their future in elections.
So this started at 8:15 PM with a 45-minute documentary piece entitled 'Der Machtkampf'. You can go to the site and for the next week or two....review the piece (all in German). It's very detailed and examines the history on the CDU process.
The second piece came on at 9:00 PM, Hart Aber Fair, with a live chat....five guests with one moderator. The video feed is there for you to follow the piece.....all in German of course.
For the most part, Jens Spahn is ruled out (his time has yet to come). So it's a two-person race.
Is it guaranteed that one of these two will be the next Chancellor after the 2021 election? No. There are various scenarios where the SPD might win, or even the Green Party.
This vote? It's limited to the national membership of the CDU Party.
Interest of regular citizens? I would suggest that people are following the story but most just want an idea of who follows Merkel. If you use a poll from spring of 2017....around two-thirds of German society want a new leadership situation. Some might go and suggest that they want some dramatic person like Kohl or Schmidt to arrive on the scene....that the Merkel years have been missing that dynamic leadership.
The one thing that you might take from the 2.5 hour news and chat piece laid out....the 500-pound AfD guerrilla still sits in the room, and actively affects politics. The EU election in 2019, with the three German state elections (all in the east)? All affected by the AfD. Once this immigration negativity started up....the Bundestag players (not just the CDU) were all unwittingly helping to bring the Frankenstein-like political creature into being, and are forced to sit there with various scenarios affecting their future in elections.
Another EU Law
A meeting concluded at the EU yesterday, with member states attending in the form of their Transport Ministers...and reaching a fairly dramatic agreement that involves truck drivers.
I'll reference ARD (German public TV, Channel One) for most of this story.
First, if you go around Europe and notice trucking procedures.....most all drivers will sleep over in their vehicle in the cabin behind the driver's seat. There's a general routine....five to ten days on the road (sleeping in the cabin) and then you return home for two to four days of off-time.
Well....the EU regulation now says that overnight stays in cabins will no longer be allowed. The freight company will be forced to provide a situation either in a hotel, guesthouse, or rented apartment.
Second, the EU now says that equal pay for equal work in the same place is mandatory. The hint here.....it used to be that if you drove for a German trucking company.....you made x-amount, and if you drove for a Polish company.....it might be x-amount-minus-10-percent. So they are basically saying everyone's pay level for trucking.....is level.
Third, the EU mandated that you can only drive for a maximum of four weeks at a time, then you have to return to your home-town and take a break (it's not specified to the length of the break but one might assume it's a minimum of seven days for a full month of work.
So, what does this all bring? I would make three observations:
1. A massive upswing on freight-shipping costs will occur as these rules are implemented. It won't surprise me if it's a 30-percent increase in costs. Consumers across the continent will question how this occurred and voice some frustration at what the EU did.
2. Is there any hotel situations or rentable apartments existing anywhere in Germany along the major autobahns....designed for truckers? Basically no. You will find a handful of hotels for private car drivers.....but the type of hotels that the EU are suggesting here....which would have to go into the thousands....don't exist. Rental apartments? No....they don't exist like this either.
I will admit that they could go and create a cube-like hotel situation (cheaply) along German autobahns, but it'll require a significant amount of space for trucks to park, some security so vehicles won't be robbed, and investment money from someone.
3. This equal pay deal....would be a boom for the lesser countries in the EU. You might see more people wanting to be freight drivers.
But I'll end this commentary with this....just because the EU mandated something....doesn't mean that it'll just magically happen. In this case, I doubt if the hotel idea becomes reality for at least ten years....maybe even fifteen years.
I'll reference ARD (German public TV, Channel One) for most of this story.
First, if you go around Europe and notice trucking procedures.....most all drivers will sleep over in their vehicle in the cabin behind the driver's seat. There's a general routine....five to ten days on the road (sleeping in the cabin) and then you return home for two to four days of off-time.
Well....the EU regulation now says that overnight stays in cabins will no longer be allowed. The freight company will be forced to provide a situation either in a hotel, guesthouse, or rented apartment.
Second, the EU now says that equal pay for equal work in the same place is mandatory. The hint here.....it used to be that if you drove for a German trucking company.....you made x-amount, and if you drove for a Polish company.....it might be x-amount-minus-10-percent. So they are basically saying everyone's pay level for trucking.....is level.
Third, the EU mandated that you can only drive for a maximum of four weeks at a time, then you have to return to your home-town and take a break (it's not specified to the length of the break but one might assume it's a minimum of seven days for a full month of work.
So, what does this all bring? I would make three observations:
1. A massive upswing on freight-shipping costs will occur as these rules are implemented. It won't surprise me if it's a 30-percent increase in costs. Consumers across the continent will question how this occurred and voice some frustration at what the EU did.
2. Is there any hotel situations or rentable apartments existing anywhere in Germany along the major autobahns....designed for truckers? Basically no. You will find a handful of hotels for private car drivers.....but the type of hotels that the EU are suggesting here....which would have to go into the thousands....don't exist. Rental apartments? No....they don't exist like this either.
I will admit that they could go and create a cube-like hotel situation (cheaply) along German autobahns, but it'll require a significant amount of space for trucks to park, some security so vehicles won't be robbed, and investment money from someone.
3. This equal pay deal....would be a boom for the lesser countries in the EU. You might see more people wanting to be freight drivers.
But I'll end this commentary with this....just because the EU mandated something....doesn't mean that it'll just magically happen. In this case, I doubt if the hotel idea becomes reality for at least ten years....maybe even fifteen years.
Monday, December 3, 2018
Diesel News Today in Germany
One of the main stories via ARD (German public TV news, Channel One) today....centers on diesel car chatter and trying to get the cities to back down on banning diesel cars from entry into metropolitan urban areas.
It's an interesting fight. The Bundestag really doesn't want to grant some blanket waiver or allow the cities to make decisions on banning certain types of vehicles (it opens the door to a massive number of future problems). The cities? They believe they can wiggle out billions in funding, if they play their cards right.
So today, Chancellor Merkel and a group stood up and said.....here, have at 500 million Euro...spread out among sixteen states, for clean-air projects. But that's it.....no more.
The cities? Oh, that wasn't the amount they were hoping for. But they are careful not to say the magic amount. My humble guess? It's likely in the neighborhood of 20-billion Euro over three years.....to be divided by forty-odd cities.
The gov't angle to the 500 million? Mostly revolving around hardware retrofitting of diesel buses and more electric/battery vehicles for public transport.
What the cities all want? They'd like to create some pattern where all inner-city travel would be public vehicles and free, and they'd start to ban not just diesel cars, but to a great extent.....even gas cars, and make people use public transportation to reach inner metropolitan cities. Just to suggest this type of theme in cities like Hamburg or Frankfurt.....you'd generally scare the crap out of local residents. Bus, subway, and tram services would have to literally double in size....with this all being free in some way.
Do the anti-diesel folks grasp the extent of business operations in their cities? I often wonder about that. Just because you say there are 700,000 residents in Frankfurt....it doesn't really take into consideration the number who come into the city already via bus, tram, the subway system, or by private car. Just by car, I'd take a guess that 150,000 cars per morning make the trip to enter the city limits.
At the heart of the matter, you need transportation infrastructure people who understand the dynamics of private individuals needing to get from point A to B....without a lot of complicated efforts, or excessive time. The anti-diesel crowd? I don't get any impression that they grasp the nature of their 'customers'.
It's an interesting fight. The Bundestag really doesn't want to grant some blanket waiver or allow the cities to make decisions on banning certain types of vehicles (it opens the door to a massive number of future problems). The cities? They believe they can wiggle out billions in funding, if they play their cards right.
So today, Chancellor Merkel and a group stood up and said.....here, have at 500 million Euro...spread out among sixteen states, for clean-air projects. But that's it.....no more.
The cities? Oh, that wasn't the amount they were hoping for. But they are careful not to say the magic amount. My humble guess? It's likely in the neighborhood of 20-billion Euro over three years.....to be divided by forty-odd cities.
The gov't angle to the 500 million? Mostly revolving around hardware retrofitting of diesel buses and more electric/battery vehicles for public transport.
What the cities all want? They'd like to create some pattern where all inner-city travel would be public vehicles and free, and they'd start to ban not just diesel cars, but to a great extent.....even gas cars, and make people use public transportation to reach inner metropolitan cities. Just to suggest this type of theme in cities like Hamburg or Frankfurt.....you'd generally scare the crap out of local residents. Bus, subway, and tram services would have to literally double in size....with this all being free in some way.
Do the anti-diesel folks grasp the extent of business operations in their cities? I often wonder about that. Just because you say there are 700,000 residents in Frankfurt....it doesn't really take into consideration the number who come into the city already via bus, tram, the subway system, or by private car. Just by car, I'd take a guess that 150,000 cars per morning make the trip to enter the city limits.
At the heart of the matter, you need transportation infrastructure people who understand the dynamics of private individuals needing to get from point A to B....without a lot of complicated efforts, or excessive time. The anti-diesel crowd? I don't get any impression that they grasp the nature of their 'customers'.
Plastic Story
I stood there in line at the German grocery today.....at the deli-department. My wife (the German) was naturally 'supervising' me and ensuring I wouldn't buy too much.
But around this point in time, the 2nd butcher associate had to deal with customer behind us.....who'd brought their plastic container with them....wanting the butcher to put the deli selection in this, and avoid the 'evil plastic wrapping'.
If you follow German consumer news via the regional public TV network, they've spent most of 2018 telling the general public about the evils of plastic, and so people want to arrive in grocery operations and put everything in their own containers or paper bags. 'Plastic is evil' is continually pressed as a message to the general public.
The butcher's reaction? No....was the firm answer, we won't put this in a container you bring you along. You have to accept our plastic packing, period. This wasn't going well with the female customer. My wife....dealing a lot in the sales of vinegar....stood there and went through explanation as well....detailing that public news blitz is missing a great deal of the factual data and there's a major sanitation problem if you started putting your deli selection in some container with questionable cleanliness. The other German lady didn't appreciate the butcher's comments....or my wife's comments.
The problem, which I will readily agree....if you start to fiddle around with plastic wrapping used in various grocery purchases.....you will eventually do something stupid and get some bad bacteria that will lead onto issues. Maybe there are good intentions here, but no one really thinks much about the sanitary efforts being made by the grocery operations throughout Germany.
But around this point in time, the 2nd butcher associate had to deal with customer behind us.....who'd brought their plastic container with them....wanting the butcher to put the deli selection in this, and avoid the 'evil plastic wrapping'.
If you follow German consumer news via the regional public TV network, they've spent most of 2018 telling the general public about the evils of plastic, and so people want to arrive in grocery operations and put everything in their own containers or paper bags. 'Plastic is evil' is continually pressed as a message to the general public.
The butcher's reaction? No....was the firm answer, we won't put this in a container you bring you along. You have to accept our plastic packing, period. This wasn't going well with the female customer. My wife....dealing a lot in the sales of vinegar....stood there and went through explanation as well....detailing that public news blitz is missing a great deal of the factual data and there's a major sanitation problem if you started putting your deli selection in some container with questionable cleanliness. The other German lady didn't appreciate the butcher's comments....or my wife's comments.
The problem, which I will readily agree....if you start to fiddle around with plastic wrapping used in various grocery purchases.....you will eventually do something stupid and get some bad bacteria that will lead onto issues. Maybe there are good intentions here, but no one really thinks much about the sanitary efforts being made by the grocery operations throughout Germany.
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