About two months ago, a new book came out in Germany.....written by Thilo Sarrazin. For about twenty years, Sarrazin was a SPD Party member.....fairly well known for business management....and eventually becoming a auditor for the Deutsche Bahn (the railway system) and later for a short period ....serving on the Board for Deutsche Bundesbank.
He reached a point where he started talking over the immigration, social welfare (it's shortcomings) and the failures of Islamic Germans. He took positions that the SPD Party couldn't accept and they more or less....forced him out of the party.
This new book? The title is "Feindliche Übernahme: Wie der Islam den Fortschritt behindert und die Gesellschaft bedroht" or in English: "Hostile takeover – how Islam impairs progress and threatens society."
My wife picked up the audio version of the book. So I've gleaned over bits and pieces of it.
One of the shortcomings which Sarrazin gets into....is the educational path for the migrant families. Since 2013, you have thousands of Syrian, Iraqi, and Middle Eastern families that came in, received visas to stay, and their kids....for better or worse, were put into the German school system.
What Sarrazin took from various interviews and discussions with educational workers....is that the vast majority of the kids are on a failure path. The schools out of Syria and Iraq....for the most part, did what they were capable of doing. But when the families departed and the kids arrived in Germany....the attitude was that the kid last wrapped up the sixth-grade....so he ought to start the seventh-grade in the German system.
Well...as the experts explained....the kids weren't prepared for that level. Administrators and the authorities who would have gone to some resolution....weren't capable of saying this in public. So the general trend, since 2013....has been to just pretend the system works.....if the kid fails the year, you just let nature take it's place and the kid repeats the year.
These parents confused by this class failure? I would imagine they are standing there and in some denial and unable to understand this whole German education path.
The younger kids? They are entering into the 1st or 2nd grade, and maybe proceeding ahead. The brighter kids? They make up for the tougher path and find tutors or smart kids to latch onto....to survive each school year.
But what Sarrazin points out is that you are producing some 15 and 16 year old kids who are supposed to go onto apprentice positions, and they just aren't capable of handling the requirements. What happens now? You end up shuffling the kids around and making excuses over why they can't handle apprentice schooling. The administrators and politicians can say they aren't at fault, which is basically true. But resolving this and moving on? It'll never happen.
I would imagine....somewhere down the line....maybe 2030, some national discussion will take place over why you have 200,000 young adults of a migrant background....stacked up into some welfare situation, and massive hostility over failed education. If Sarrazin is still alive....he'll probably be writing another book over this failure.
Thursday, December 6, 2018
AKK or Merz?
This weekend, the CDU Party will hold the internal election of who becomes the next head of the party.....thus becoming the prime candidate to be Chancellor after Merkel retires in 2021.
What is shaping up? Basically.....while three are in the running, you can readily dismiss Jens Spahn (mostly because of his youth). I don't think he'll raise more than 10-percent of the vote.
There are to be 1,001 members at this Hamburg meeting, who will each have a vote.
The two prime runners now? Friedrich Merz and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (often referred to by journalists as AKK).
There are two camps running this election. The first camp is the Merkel-group, who want AKK as their chosen leader. Most German journalists will say that AKK is a carbon-copy of Merkel and if you were happy with the way things run.....then you can only get that future with AKK.
The second group is the Bundestag President Wolfgang Schäuble group.....who are mostly over the age of forty, and have a memory of how things were before Merkel. This group prefers Friedrich Merz.
Right now the odds? Last weekend, BILD (the national newspaper) went and attempted chats with the thousand members who will be at the conference. Only about a quarter of them were willing to discuss the matter....with most (3 to 2) preferring Merz.
My humble opinion? If AKK is the winner, I think the German Green Party has an absolute chance in 2021 to defeat AKK and the CDU Party....at a heavy cost to the SPD Party. If Merz is the winner, some enthusiasm might be found and the CDU might go back to 40-percent numbers like they've done twenty years ago.
And Spahn? I think if AKK moves up a notch....Spahn ends up as the General Secretary of the Party. He'll sit there for seven or more years....chilling out and gaining support.
What is shaping up? Basically.....while three are in the running, you can readily dismiss Jens Spahn (mostly because of his youth). I don't think he'll raise more than 10-percent of the vote.
There are to be 1,001 members at this Hamburg meeting, who will each have a vote.
The two prime runners now? Friedrich Merz and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (often referred to by journalists as AKK).
There are two camps running this election. The first camp is the Merkel-group, who want AKK as their chosen leader. Most German journalists will say that AKK is a carbon-copy of Merkel and if you were happy with the way things run.....then you can only get that future with AKK.
The second group is the Bundestag President Wolfgang Schäuble group.....who are mostly over the age of forty, and have a memory of how things were before Merkel. This group prefers Friedrich Merz.
Right now the odds? Last weekend, BILD (the national newspaper) went and attempted chats with the thousand members who will be at the conference. Only about a quarter of them were willing to discuss the matter....with most (3 to 2) preferring Merz.
My humble opinion? If AKK is the winner, I think the German Green Party has an absolute chance in 2021 to defeat AKK and the CDU Party....at a heavy cost to the SPD Party. If Merz is the winner, some enthusiasm might be found and the CDU might go back to 40-percent numbers like they've done twenty years ago.
And Spahn? I think if AKK moves up a notch....Spahn ends up as the General Secretary of the Party. He'll sit there for seven or more years....chilling out and gaining support.
What Was the French Fuel Tax Really All About?
This is a topic which hasn't drawn much analytical chat from journalists. So let's pick up the topic for a minute and think about what the end-product of this tax increase was about.
The facts on the tax? Two fuel taxes were being set up. Gas taxes would go up to roughly 12 additional US cents a gallon. Diesel taxes would go up 24 additional US cents a gallon.
The driving force? There are two unique pieces to this story. France has around 70-percent of the car inventory which runs on diesel (more than most other European countries). Pollution-wise....in major cities, it's a problem (at least the environmental folks say this). Why did they go so heavily to diesel? You got better mileage, which was driving people back in the 1970s and onto today....to think better mileage was more important.
The second piece of this story is an effort that came up shortly after being elected President in France.....to ban gas and diesel cars by 2030.
A fair number of people now believe the tax business was connected to convincing the public that it'd all be better to switch to electrical or hybrid cars with the massive taxation. Yes, using taxes as a tool to manipulate people into doing something that they aren't that keen upon. And we aren't talking about a ten-year period of switch.....that you'd already start to see a doubling up of electric car purchases (if you used 2018's numbers) by the end of 2019.
Does Macron admit either of these two reasons in public? No. If he did....the public would have blasted off even earlier.
Were the tax increases cancelled or just suspended? Well....suspended for six months, meaning he's giving the police six months to develop more capabilities to take down protests or riots.
Is Macron playing with 'fire'? The amount of damage done in the interior of Paris has surprised folks. The fact that these were not 18-year old punks who typically do the riots? That probably was a bit of a shocker....watching 50-year old guys with yellow vests, in action.
So all of this returns in early spring (May 2019)? More or less....right as the EU election occurs.
The facts on the tax? Two fuel taxes were being set up. Gas taxes would go up to roughly 12 additional US cents a gallon. Diesel taxes would go up 24 additional US cents a gallon.
The driving force? There are two unique pieces to this story. France has around 70-percent of the car inventory which runs on diesel (more than most other European countries). Pollution-wise....in major cities, it's a problem (at least the environmental folks say this). Why did they go so heavily to diesel? You got better mileage, which was driving people back in the 1970s and onto today....to think better mileage was more important.
The second piece of this story is an effort that came up shortly after being elected President in France.....to ban gas and diesel cars by 2030.
A fair number of people now believe the tax business was connected to convincing the public that it'd all be better to switch to electrical or hybrid cars with the massive taxation. Yes, using taxes as a tool to manipulate people into doing something that they aren't that keen upon. And we aren't talking about a ten-year period of switch.....that you'd already start to see a doubling up of electric car purchases (if you used 2018's numbers) by the end of 2019.
Does Macron admit either of these two reasons in public? No. If he did....the public would have blasted off even earlier.
Were the tax increases cancelled or just suspended? Well....suspended for six months, meaning he's giving the police six months to develop more capabilities to take down protests or riots.
Is Macron playing with 'fire'? The amount of damage done in the interior of Paris has surprised folks. The fact that these were not 18-year old punks who typically do the riots? That probably was a bit of a shocker....watching 50-year old guys with yellow vests, in action.
So all of this returns in early spring (May 2019)? More or less....right as the EU election occurs.
Wednesday, December 5, 2018
German Public Polling
ZDF (Channel Two on the public TV landscape of Germany)....conducted another national poll back in the 3rd week of November on where the parties stand:
CDU/CSU: 27-percent (Nearly 10 points dropped since this period of 2017)
SPD: 14-percent (a fairly dramatic drop of ten-plus points since this time of last year).
Linke Party: 9-percent
FDP: 8-percent
Greens: 22-percent
AfD: 16-percent
What this leads onto? The Greens are on a turbo-blast episode and attracting a lot of SPD votes. Its entirely possible in 2019....that the SPD falls to the 10-percent level and the Greens might be able to take on the CDU/CSU team.
Elections in 2019? An EU election in May, and three German state elections in east German states. Now of this helps the SPD or CDU folks. Both the Greens and AfD folks are likely to pick up more interest in those four elections.
CDU/CSU: 27-percent (Nearly 10 points dropped since this period of 2017)
SPD: 14-percent (a fairly dramatic drop of ten-plus points since this time of last year).
Linke Party: 9-percent
FDP: 8-percent
Greens: 22-percent
AfD: 16-percent
What this leads onto? The Greens are on a turbo-blast episode and attracting a lot of SPD votes. Its entirely possible in 2019....that the SPD falls to the 10-percent level and the Greens might be able to take on the CDU/CSU team.
Elections in 2019? An EU election in May, and three German state elections in east German states. Now of this helps the SPD or CDU folks. Both the Greens and AfD folks are likely to pick up more interest in those four elections.
What Drove the French Riots in Reality
Focus (the German news magazine) picked up the pieces of this French story which has been missed over the past five or six weeks by most journalists.
Somewhere in the south of France, near Brittany....a 51-year old female hypnotherapist got fairly hyped up over taxation and the Macron government.....so she went and created a 4:38 second video of her anger over the upcoming diesel/gas tax increase.
The video went out over Facebook and Youtube. She notes the rural nature of her village and the conditions of which they have to put up with.....being mostly unfair but they live with it. The new taxes? No....they didn't want to live with that.
What Focus points out.....this video got national attention and convinced a large segment of society to come out and riot against the taxation increase. As of yesterday, the taxation is suspended (six months) and it will likely bring great harm to the EU election in France if it's not cancelled.
So what you have to wonder now.....that one single person could make a blunt statement of only five minutes and create a wave of anger that shakes the foundation of government existing in France.
The question to ask....is Madam Jacline Mouraud finished....or is she just starting?
Somewhere in the south of France, near Brittany....a 51-year old female hypnotherapist got fairly hyped up over taxation and the Macron government.....so she went and created a 4:38 second video of her anger over the upcoming diesel/gas tax increase.
The video went out over Facebook and Youtube. She notes the rural nature of her village and the conditions of which they have to put up with.....being mostly unfair but they live with it. The new taxes? No....they didn't want to live with that.
What Focus points out.....this video got national attention and convinced a large segment of society to come out and riot against the taxation increase. As of yesterday, the taxation is suspended (six months) and it will likely bring great harm to the EU election in France if it's not cancelled.
So what you have to wonder now.....that one single person could make a blunt statement of only five minutes and create a wave of anger that shakes the foundation of government existing in France.
The question to ask....is Madam Jacline Mouraud finished....or is she just starting?
Lack of Applicants Story
Back around two years ago in Germany, there was this enormous amount of chatter (politically) about the newest immigrant topic....allowing incoming migrants to bring their family members into Germany. The Greens, Linke Party and a fair number of SPD/CDU members came to support this measure. On the opposition side....some CDU folks, AfD members, and German residents voiced concern.
The Bundestag eventually came to an agreement. Yes, family members could be supported and 'nominated' to get German visas. It would be limited to 5,000 requests per year. The opposition folks went to extremes to condemn this low number and make a significant amount of criticism of the unfriendly nature of the program.
Today, the government spoke up via ARD (public German TV, Channel One) on the lack of success of the program.
Right now, they are at the 3,480 applications have been filed for 2018. In fact....in the last quarter, it's only around 800 of which were approved/issued (declining in terms of numbers).
At some point in the 2017 talks....there was a 300,000 number thrown around. People were suggesting thousands of folks were desiring to bring in relatives of theirs. The Interior Ministry wanted a 'cap'.
So now? There is still criticism existing....that people aren't getting their chance. But if you look at reality....either the relatives aren't that interested in moving, or the chatter of immigrants in Germany may have some criticism of how things work/run in the 'real' world.
I generally point out that most all of the new immigrants (at least the ones I've bumped into) will have criticism over the way that the Germans run the program....over the cost of living and taxation....and the rough nature of simple things (like getting a driver's license or getting a car-loan).
The Bundestag eventually came to an agreement. Yes, family members could be supported and 'nominated' to get German visas. It would be limited to 5,000 requests per year. The opposition folks went to extremes to condemn this low number and make a significant amount of criticism of the unfriendly nature of the program.
Today, the government spoke up via ARD (public German TV, Channel One) on the lack of success of the program.
Right now, they are at the 3,480 applications have been filed for 2018. In fact....in the last quarter, it's only around 800 of which were approved/issued (declining in terms of numbers).
At some point in the 2017 talks....there was a 300,000 number thrown around. People were suggesting thousands of folks were desiring to bring in relatives of theirs. The Interior Ministry wanted a 'cap'.
So now? There is still criticism existing....that people aren't getting their chance. But if you look at reality....either the relatives aren't that interested in moving, or the chatter of immigrants in Germany may have some criticism of how things work/run in the 'real' world.
I generally point out that most all of the new immigrants (at least the ones I've bumped into) will have criticism over the way that the Germans run the program....over the cost of living and taxation....and the rough nature of simple things (like getting a driver's license or getting a car-loan).
Schäuble Chatter
If you follow German news and the campaign for the new chief of the CDU Party (Merkel's party)....there is a bit of intrigue in the past day or two....with Wolfgang Schäuble (former big-wig of the CDU Party, former Finance Minister, and who would have likely been the Chancellor of Germany in the 2002 general election....had it not been for Kohl's little scandal.
So here is a brief moment in history, which very few journalists or German historians will cover in public.
In 1984, Schäuble began this step-up to be in the inner-circle of Helmet Kohl....when he became the Minister of Special Affairs. Five years later, still under the Kohl 'umbrella'.....he moved up to Minister of the Interior. He was the guy standing there as the Wall came down and the unification of Germany became a project to piece together the 'new' Germany. Every step of the way....Kohl's great moments in this period...really depended upon Schäuble.
The expectation there in the early 1990s....Schäuble would be the person to step up as Kohl retired. The question was 'when'.
When the October 1994 election came up....Kohl expected a very demanding election and stayed on for another election. The CDU was able to piece together a 41-percent win.
1998? It probably was the point where the CDU should have shuffled things around and brought Schäuble in....but instead...the party went to Helmet Kohl who was suffering because of scandal accusations (the party donations sitting in a foreign bank). Kohl lost (by four points).
So with the loss sitting there, it was obvious.....the party needed fresh new leadership and Schäuble would have been that person. But roughly six months into this period....accusations that Schäuble knew about the scandal, the money, and how Kohl did things.....meant a party leadership change.
And so....enter Merkel. She couldn't be the Chancellor candidate in 2002's election because of a large group of the party still looking for experienced leadership. That election was another loss for the CDU.
So September 2005, came with Merkel winning the election.
Schäuble, to some degree, has been kept around for various minister posts, but he has to be somewhat angry over his chances lost for the Chancellor post.
Now? Well....today's news indicates that Schäuble has come out and put his support behind Merz. The Chancellor? She's for AKK.
Does Schäuble's opinion matter? There's still some individuals from the 1990s left in the upper level of the CDU Party, and his recommendation to them....matters.
Does all this scandal business from the Kohl era affect relationships today? One might go and suggest that the 'smell' still lingers.
So here is a brief moment in history, which very few journalists or German historians will cover in public.
In 1984, Schäuble began this step-up to be in the inner-circle of Helmet Kohl....when he became the Minister of Special Affairs. Five years later, still under the Kohl 'umbrella'.....he moved up to Minister of the Interior. He was the guy standing there as the Wall came down and the unification of Germany became a project to piece together the 'new' Germany. Every step of the way....Kohl's great moments in this period...really depended upon Schäuble.
The expectation there in the early 1990s....Schäuble would be the person to step up as Kohl retired. The question was 'when'.
When the October 1994 election came up....Kohl expected a very demanding election and stayed on for another election. The CDU was able to piece together a 41-percent win.
1998? It probably was the point where the CDU should have shuffled things around and brought Schäuble in....but instead...the party went to Helmet Kohl who was suffering because of scandal accusations (the party donations sitting in a foreign bank). Kohl lost (by four points).
So with the loss sitting there, it was obvious.....the party needed fresh new leadership and Schäuble would have been that person. But roughly six months into this period....accusations that Schäuble knew about the scandal, the money, and how Kohl did things.....meant a party leadership change.
And so....enter Merkel. She couldn't be the Chancellor candidate in 2002's election because of a large group of the party still looking for experienced leadership. That election was another loss for the CDU.
So September 2005, came with Merkel winning the election.
Schäuble, to some degree, has been kept around for various minister posts, but he has to be somewhat angry over his chances lost for the Chancellor post.
Now? Well....today's news indicates that Schäuble has come out and put his support behind Merz. The Chancellor? She's for AKK.
Does Schäuble's opinion matter? There's still some individuals from the 1990s left in the upper level of the CDU Party, and his recommendation to them....matters.
Does all this scandal business from the Kohl era affect relationships today? One might go and suggest that the 'smell' still lingers.
The Mandate to End German Sales of Gas/Diesel Cars
When 2030 rolls around in Germany, a law is currently on the books to forbid sales of any new gas or diesel car....meaning you have to buy battery-powered or perhaps hydrogen-powered (if the technology ever takes off). We are basically twelve years away from this significant date.
There's almost no discussion over this law....the impact....the anticipated public reaction as we start to get a couple of years away, or the potential failure. So I'm going to make a couple of observations:
1. Virtually all of the German car manufacturers have at least one model in the electric game, and most will suggest in news statements that they've got several models under review to drag along to the battery-powered situation. My best guess is that both BMW and VW will have at least five models each ready to sell by 2023 (five years into the future).
2. Just because they offer it....will Germans buy them? This is something of an unknown. At the end of 2017, with just 'pure' battery cars (not hybrids), there were approximately 75,000 cars registered on the streets of the country. The big push in 2017? Twenty-five thousand were registered in that one year, and I might expect 2018's numbers to between 30,000 and 40,000 registered. Total number of private cars owned in Germany? 45.8-million (Jan 2017 stats).
To even reach the 1-percent point of ownership? You can do the math and estimations, but you can figure it won't happen before 2022.
3. What really hinders the German attraction to the vehicles? First, while it might make sense in an urbanized environment like Essen, Stuttgart, or Berlin....in smaller rural communities, the limitations of the car are readily apparent. Second, even in urbanized neighborhoods.....a lot of Germans don't have their dedicated garage or parking spot.....so how you charge up such a vehicle overnight? Third, this retirement process of the batteries every five to seven years....what's the real cost factor? Germans tend to analyze things like this and if you suggest 2,000 Euro to buy new batteries and pay disposal costs for the old ones....that's a no-go for working-class Germans. Fourth, as you peel back German concerns.....some folks are asking when gas/diesel tax revenues start to drop....won't they have to up electrical tax revenues? Well....no one answers that question. Some Germans will suggest that a massive solar panel scheme will occur around 2030, with everyone trying to generate their own power and avoid the public grid and the taxation situation.
4. Will German companies start to decrease car models in the gas/diesel categories by 2025, and try to 'encourage' you to get closer to their battery-car models? I might go and suggest this will be a national car company policy, but if the public isn't buying a million battery-cars per year by 2028 (ten years away), then this whole situation is kinda doomed as you arrive in 2030.
5. The odds of a lot of Germans buying new gas powered cars in exceptional numbers in 2028 and 2029? I think whatever models are still manufactured in this period.....will be selling at all-time levels and just about everyone trying to get a gas model as their 'last car'.
6. Public discontent by 2030 as the 'future unfolds'? This is a moment where you can sip through a beer or two, and imagine the landscape. Will half of the nation be attempting to dismantle the law, and half the nation be standing on a Green Party pledge to stay the course? It's entirely possible. So the question comes up.....were the political folks just ahead of the power-curve in forcing this transformation? This will be debated to a great degree. Will car companies be so attached to the new technology and their sales strategy.....that they can't offer a gas-engine car in 2030, and foreign competition (I hate to suggest it....but Chevy or Lada) arrives to offer gas options?
7. Finally, the battery funnel. On numbers, you can sense an enormous manufacturing 'creature' needing to exist in a decade, making car batteries day and night....to catch up with demand, and to replace retired car batteries. Could you wake up and find yourself in need of a new battery (say with your 2026 car in the year 2032), and the dealer just grins and says sure, but we have a four-month waiting period on new batteries.
I don't necessarily want to be negative on this transformation date, but the mandated side of this discussion leads onto consequences, and most Germans are likely to study this discussion in a more complete way as we get closer.
There's almost no discussion over this law....the impact....the anticipated public reaction as we start to get a couple of years away, or the potential failure. So I'm going to make a couple of observations:
1. Virtually all of the German car manufacturers have at least one model in the electric game, and most will suggest in news statements that they've got several models under review to drag along to the battery-powered situation. My best guess is that both BMW and VW will have at least five models each ready to sell by 2023 (five years into the future).
2. Just because they offer it....will Germans buy them? This is something of an unknown. At the end of 2017, with just 'pure' battery cars (not hybrids), there were approximately 75,000 cars registered on the streets of the country. The big push in 2017? Twenty-five thousand were registered in that one year, and I might expect 2018's numbers to between 30,000 and 40,000 registered. Total number of private cars owned in Germany? 45.8-million (Jan 2017 stats).
To even reach the 1-percent point of ownership? You can do the math and estimations, but you can figure it won't happen before 2022.
3. What really hinders the German attraction to the vehicles? First, while it might make sense in an urbanized environment like Essen, Stuttgart, or Berlin....in smaller rural communities, the limitations of the car are readily apparent. Second, even in urbanized neighborhoods.....a lot of Germans don't have their dedicated garage or parking spot.....so how you charge up such a vehicle overnight? Third, this retirement process of the batteries every five to seven years....what's the real cost factor? Germans tend to analyze things like this and if you suggest 2,000 Euro to buy new batteries and pay disposal costs for the old ones....that's a no-go for working-class Germans. Fourth, as you peel back German concerns.....some folks are asking when gas/diesel tax revenues start to drop....won't they have to up electrical tax revenues? Well....no one answers that question. Some Germans will suggest that a massive solar panel scheme will occur around 2030, with everyone trying to generate their own power and avoid the public grid and the taxation situation.
4. Will German companies start to decrease car models in the gas/diesel categories by 2025, and try to 'encourage' you to get closer to their battery-car models? I might go and suggest this will be a national car company policy, but if the public isn't buying a million battery-cars per year by 2028 (ten years away), then this whole situation is kinda doomed as you arrive in 2030.
5. The odds of a lot of Germans buying new gas powered cars in exceptional numbers in 2028 and 2029? I think whatever models are still manufactured in this period.....will be selling at all-time levels and just about everyone trying to get a gas model as their 'last car'.
6. Public discontent by 2030 as the 'future unfolds'? This is a moment where you can sip through a beer or two, and imagine the landscape. Will half of the nation be attempting to dismantle the law, and half the nation be standing on a Green Party pledge to stay the course? It's entirely possible. So the question comes up.....were the political folks just ahead of the power-curve in forcing this transformation? This will be debated to a great degree. Will car companies be so attached to the new technology and their sales strategy.....that they can't offer a gas-engine car in 2030, and foreign competition (I hate to suggest it....but Chevy or Lada) arrives to offer gas options?
7. Finally, the battery funnel. On numbers, you can sense an enormous manufacturing 'creature' needing to exist in a decade, making car batteries day and night....to catch up with demand, and to replace retired car batteries. Could you wake up and find yourself in need of a new battery (say with your 2026 car in the year 2032), and the dealer just grins and says sure, but we have a four-month waiting period on new batteries.
I don't necessarily want to be negative on this transformation date, but the mandated side of this discussion leads onto consequences, and most Germans are likely to study this discussion in a more complete way as we get closer.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)