There's a good piece to read over at N-TV today (commercial German news) that discusses the impact of mafia operations in Germany, and money-laundering.
German authorities have come to this realization that the mafia operations have a serious problem in funneling or using their cash-flow, and they came to discover that real estate was a great place to push the money into.
Quoting off N-TV.....the number spoken by the authorities for 2017? Thirty-billion Euro (roughly 36-billion dollars)....for ONE single year.
The figure is that around 15 to 30 percent of mafia money.....moves into real estate transactions. Buying, building, or renting.
Correcting this behavior? You'd have to remove various fixtures in place and readily ID every single investor or investor-company. Just because Teddy-Bear-X comes up with sixteen million Euro to buy some apartment building in Berlin....you have to ask, who is Teddy-Bear-X? So you come to twenty-odd backers....some of which are shell companies out of Greece or Cyprus....then begs more questions. You could reach some stage where you know five of the twenty backers are legit and real people, and the rest are all fictional. Then what?
So this brings me to this odd question...what if, since 1998 (twenty years ago).....you had 20-percent of all major building construction or purchases in Germany....and they led back to a mafia money-laundering operation? What if you found out tomorrow that sixteen major condo buildings under construction in Frankfurt today.....are mafia-funded?
I tend to think they've insulated themselves so much and made their 'contribution' such a big deal....that trying to take them out or destroy their core initiative....might be a major negative on the German economy.
I sat and watched an interview in the 2008 period where they talked about all this Russian billionaire money which was being funneled to Greece and Cyprus. The question of 'why' came up, and the answer given was......none of the Russian billionaires trusted the Russian banking system because they were so corrupted and incompetent. If you reflect upon that....wouldn't the same logic affect the mafia folks and their money-laundering.....that they think it'd be better to funnel this into building real estate and build new buildings.....than bring the money back into their own hands?
Saturday, December 8, 2018
Short Chat Over Freight Law
This week, I essayed a piece on the EU's new law....that says in the very near future (likely to be four years away)....truckers from across all of the EU will be getting 'equal pay' and overnight truckers will get hotel rooms compliments of the company. Since that news piece, I've gone to a couple of forums and read commentary by truckers, and freight operations people.
One guy came to point out a consequence of this EU law. As he said....freight movement could be going up by forty-to-fifty percent.....if equal pay and hotel rooms are part of the future of freight movement in Europe.
As he pointed out....a significant amount of research is going on with driverless buses, cars, and freight trucks. Generally, everyone expects driverless cars to be introduced on the road by 2025. This past summer, I had a chance to observe a driverless bus (big enough for 15 passengers) operating in Wiesbaden. The driverless freight vehicles? It's a slightly bigger deal and people are generally predicting a longer period of introduction. However.....if this equal-pay deal and hotel situation were being pushed....this guy suggested that the big freight companies would start dumping money into research and get the driverless freight trucks earlier.
The impact here? Well....you could have driverless freight vehicles on the road, and no need for discussion over equal-pay or hotel offerings. Yep, you could have X-truck running 24 hours a day, with no breaks, no hotel cost, and no equal-pay.
So as this guy suggested at the end....the EU didn't really help the truck drivers....they just speeded up the process where human freight drivers won't be necessary. It might be ten years away, but you can anticipate that driverless freight movement will occur.
As I always stress with the EU business.....as much as they want you to think they are helping you.....there's this 20-percent chance that they are screwing you over.
One guy came to point out a consequence of this EU law. As he said....freight movement could be going up by forty-to-fifty percent.....if equal pay and hotel rooms are part of the future of freight movement in Europe.
As he pointed out....a significant amount of research is going on with driverless buses, cars, and freight trucks. Generally, everyone expects driverless cars to be introduced on the road by 2025. This past summer, I had a chance to observe a driverless bus (big enough for 15 passengers) operating in Wiesbaden. The driverless freight vehicles? It's a slightly bigger deal and people are generally predicting a longer period of introduction. However.....if this equal-pay deal and hotel situation were being pushed....this guy suggested that the big freight companies would start dumping money into research and get the driverless freight trucks earlier.
The impact here? Well....you could have driverless freight vehicles on the road, and no need for discussion over equal-pay or hotel offerings. Yep, you could have X-truck running 24 hours a day, with no breaks, no hotel cost, and no equal-pay.
So as this guy suggested at the end....the EU didn't really help the truck drivers....they just speeded up the process where human freight drivers won't be necessary. It might be ten years away, but you can anticipate that driverless freight movement will occur.
As I always stress with the EU business.....as much as they want you to think they are helping you.....there's this 20-percent chance that they are screwing you over.
Jihadist Court Case
This week....a rather unusual court case in Frankfurt concluded....over actions that occurred in 2013 (five years ago). HR (our local Hessen public TV network told the basis of the story).
So you go back to the early fall of 2013, and this local kid in Frankfurt got some urging from a local Islamic 'leader' to leave Frankfurt....travel to Turkey....cross the border and join up with a jihadist military group. With some minor boot-camp-like training....the kid got sent into combat and ended up dead in the spring of 2014.
A long process occurred where questions were asked by the authorities in Frankfurt. What this led to was a 'network' that had been created with funding (no one says from where) and it went to this local 29-year-old (today) Frankfurt guy. What this court did was evaluate the actions committed, the victims, and the pain/suffering of the relatives, and this accused guy ended up with a guilty situation (right now, 3 years and 6 months in jail).
The one obvious factor in this whole saga....is that without the travel money....this kid wouldn't have made the trip.
A blunt message? It's hard to say that. Once this recruitment era started up....you just didn't see much action by the German authorities to hinder or prevent the recruitment or the travel arrangements into Turkey (then onto Syria).
Will this sentence business be the end, or will the guy appeal? I suspect that he'll appeal and maybe find some way to carve off half the sentence.
Some Germans will say this is fair....others will just shake their head because the recruitment should have been identified as a major crime back in 2013.
So you go back to the early fall of 2013, and this local kid in Frankfurt got some urging from a local Islamic 'leader' to leave Frankfurt....travel to Turkey....cross the border and join up with a jihadist military group. With some minor boot-camp-like training....the kid got sent into combat and ended up dead in the spring of 2014.
A long process occurred where questions were asked by the authorities in Frankfurt. What this led to was a 'network' that had been created with funding (no one says from where) and it went to this local 29-year-old (today) Frankfurt guy. What this court did was evaluate the actions committed, the victims, and the pain/suffering of the relatives, and this accused guy ended up with a guilty situation (right now, 3 years and 6 months in jail).
The one obvious factor in this whole saga....is that without the travel money....this kid wouldn't have made the trip.
A blunt message? It's hard to say that. Once this recruitment era started up....you just didn't see much action by the German authorities to hinder or prevent the recruitment or the travel arrangements into Turkey (then onto Syria).
Will this sentence business be the end, or will the guy appeal? I suspect that he'll appeal and maybe find some way to carve off half the sentence.
Some Germans will say this is fair....others will just shake their head because the recruitment should have been identified as a major crime back in 2013.
The Difference in Kohl's CDU and Merkel's CDU
Last year, before the election period in September....I was sitting through another chat forum on public TV, and this political strategist got onto the topic of 'centralist'. He laid out ten different political areas, and on each single one of them....the CDU had selected a policy that was absolutely on the center-point of the left and right. He then came to the conclusion point.....this was not the CDU of Helmet Kohl who tended to have a more conservative view of politics....this was Merkel's CDU who was firmly anchored to center-point politics.
What happens with this type of strategy planning? One key thing is that it literally destroys any inertia or charm with the SPD Party (who is supposed to be left-of-center). You could probably engage a hundred people who say they generally vote SPD, and find that since the Merkel years started....at least ten of them have voted for the CDU in elections.
Yesterday, as the big CDU meeting was wrapping up in Hamburg, Merkel was on-stage with 'AKK' (her replacement as party-chief), and in the background, the theme for this big hyped-up political party meeting.....the German word for center. AKK's intent? To carry the centralist view forward.
The sad thing here is that strategy left the SPD Party with few options, and a continual downward trend on numbers. They are sitting near 14 to 16 percent of the national polling now (actually even with the AfD Party). Ahead of them? The Greens and Merkel's CDU.
But this one odd topic came up after the party vote on Friday.....are half the members of the CDU disenchanted with following the Merkel/AKK path ahead? If so.....what happens? Generally, if you were conserative in voting patterns and you didn't want to give your vote to the CDU.....you were left with the FDP (mostly a 7-to-9 percent party), or the AfD (who you wouldn't admit that you voted for them). Some guy last night did a joke suggestion that this disenfranchised group of CDU folks could run off and make up another new party. It probably wouldn't happen, but stranger things have occurred over the past decade.
Are we at some evolutionary stage of German politics? I think so.
What happens with this type of strategy planning? One key thing is that it literally destroys any inertia or charm with the SPD Party (who is supposed to be left-of-center). You could probably engage a hundred people who say they generally vote SPD, and find that since the Merkel years started....at least ten of them have voted for the CDU in elections.
Yesterday, as the big CDU meeting was wrapping up in Hamburg, Merkel was on-stage with 'AKK' (her replacement as party-chief), and in the background, the theme for this big hyped-up political party meeting.....the German word for center. AKK's intent? To carry the centralist view forward.
The sad thing here is that strategy left the SPD Party with few options, and a continual downward trend on numbers. They are sitting near 14 to 16 percent of the national polling now (actually even with the AfD Party). Ahead of them? The Greens and Merkel's CDU.
But this one odd topic came up after the party vote on Friday.....are half the members of the CDU disenchanted with following the Merkel/AKK path ahead? If so.....what happens? Generally, if you were conserative in voting patterns and you didn't want to give your vote to the CDU.....you were left with the FDP (mostly a 7-to-9 percent party), or the AfD (who you wouldn't admit that you voted for them). Some guy last night did a joke suggestion that this disenfranchised group of CDU folks could run off and make up another new party. It probably wouldn't happen, but stranger things have occurred over the past decade.
Are we at some evolutionary stage of German politics? I think so.
If Things Weren't Bad Enough in France
One of the oddball things which came out toward the end of the week in France.....was the re-establishment of mandatory service to the country. A 'kinder and gentler' draft.
Here's the big rub....it extends down to age 16. Yeah, you can guess how that sold over to the 'punks'. Total negative. I sat and watched several clips.....extremely negative attitude.
The basis of the return? To bring national unity back into society, and to have people ready to go, if some civic emergency were to occur.
What makes this one different from the past? Well....it affects girls just as much as boys.
There would be two stages to this. Stage one is a mandatory 30-day period of 'placement' (not fully explained).
My guess is that they want to dump you off with some local charity operation and you have to show up daily to get your credit on the 30-day business. This could also include operations with the police, the fire department, conservation and forestry folks, etc.
Stage two (probably two or three years later), would be voluntary and involve three to twelve months. The suggestion is that you'd do basically the same thing as in stage one....just longer periods.
From what I can observe, it really isn't being taken well by the youth. They won't cooperate and you will end up with fairly aggressive kids who won't agree to go to stage one or two. A bigger mess? If you have half the 16-year olds in the country who thumb their nose at this....it'll be taken as a joke. Macron's planning staff really screwed up on this, from a timing point of view.
Here's the big rub....it extends down to age 16. Yeah, you can guess how that sold over to the 'punks'. Total negative. I sat and watched several clips.....extremely negative attitude.
The basis of the return? To bring national unity back into society, and to have people ready to go, if some civic emergency were to occur.
What makes this one different from the past? Well....it affects girls just as much as boys.
There would be two stages to this. Stage one is a mandatory 30-day period of 'placement' (not fully explained).
My guess is that they want to dump you off with some local charity operation and you have to show up daily to get your credit on the 30-day business. This could also include operations with the police, the fire department, conservation and forestry folks, etc.
Stage two (probably two or three years later), would be voluntary and involve three to twelve months. The suggestion is that you'd do basically the same thing as in stage one....just longer periods.
From what I can observe, it really isn't being taken well by the youth. They won't cooperate and you will end up with fairly aggressive kids who won't agree to go to stage one or two. A bigger mess? If you have half the 16-year olds in the country who thumb their nose at this....it'll be taken as a joke. Macron's planning staff really screwed up on this, from a timing point of view.
Friday, December 7, 2018
2021 and What I Predict
While I'm not leaning for, or hyping up any votes for the guy.....I tend to think after this CDU Party meeting in Hamburg, and AKK's 'win'.....she will be the CDU Chancellor candidate in 2021. I don't think she has the charisma or voter-support to win such an election with the party. Yes, I'm hinting that the combined CDU-CSU vote....might be around 24-percent, which would be a fairly dynamic drop.
So my prediction goes to the Green Party.....that they will put up Robert Habeck as the Chancellor candidate, and somehow find 25 to 28 percent of the national vote.....enough to win. Who is Habeck? My ten observations:
1. He turns fifty next year.
2. He got noticed around 2009 up in the extreme north of Germany.....as a major local party member. Every year or two, he's taken a step up. People like his style (low confrontation).
3. He has a doctorate degree in philosophy.
4. In the 2017 national election.....he was in the running as the Green Chancellor candidate....but got edged out at the last minute.
5. He was a commissioner on a group which headed up nuclear waste material, and helped to approve the export of some waste to Sweden....which drew negativity and criticism by the bulk of Greens for taking that position.
6. He's written a couple of books...some leveled at kids....some at just plain fictional literature. He's not a historian type, if you were wondering.
7. He speaks German and Danish (not English).
8. He's married and his wife is a writer.
9. In forums and debates.....he does well, but there are people better than him. He can be a spirited talker, and show some charisma.
10. In terms of positions like mayor, or Premier-President? No...nothing. That weakness of leadership challenges does stand as something lacking.
Why do I suggest him instead of some SPD figure? Look....the SPD is going through a disintegration phase, with a lot of negativity about their positions, their take on jobs and the economy, and on immigration.
I, more or less, predict that the SPD will do lousy in 2021 (maybe in the 14-percent range), with the AfD getting near 18-percent, and the Greens barely edging out the CDU-CSU combo. For better or worse, I think the Germans will get Robert Habeck for four years, and come to regret the election, but blame this on lousy choices from all the parties.
So my prediction goes to the Green Party.....that they will put up Robert Habeck as the Chancellor candidate, and somehow find 25 to 28 percent of the national vote.....enough to win. Who is Habeck? My ten observations:
1. He turns fifty next year.
2. He got noticed around 2009 up in the extreme north of Germany.....as a major local party member. Every year or two, he's taken a step up. People like his style (low confrontation).
3. He has a doctorate degree in philosophy.
4. In the 2017 national election.....he was in the running as the Green Chancellor candidate....but got edged out at the last minute.
5. He was a commissioner on a group which headed up nuclear waste material, and helped to approve the export of some waste to Sweden....which drew negativity and criticism by the bulk of Greens for taking that position.
6. He's written a couple of books...some leveled at kids....some at just plain fictional literature. He's not a historian type, if you were wondering.
7. He speaks German and Danish (not English).
8. He's married and his wife is a writer.
9. In forums and debates.....he does well, but there are people better than him. He can be a spirited talker, and show some charisma.
10. In terms of positions like mayor, or Premier-President? No...nothing. That weakness of leadership challenges does stand as something lacking.
Why do I suggest him instead of some SPD figure? Look....the SPD is going through a disintegration phase, with a lot of negativity about their positions, their take on jobs and the economy, and on immigration.
I, more or less, predict that the SPD will do lousy in 2021 (maybe in the 14-percent range), with the AfD getting near 18-percent, and the Greens barely edging out the CDU-CSU combo. For better or worse, I think the Germans will get Robert Habeck for four years, and come to regret the election, but blame this on lousy choices from all the parties.
CDU Party Chief: AKK
It's done.
The CDU Party met this afternoon and voted. Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK) beats Merz.....517 to 482.
Act in front of cameras.....happy-smiley faces. Behind the scenes....I think that forty-percent of the party is disenchanted with the selection, and know that Merkel's entire script and vision....continues on. No changes.
Affect now? AKK will show up on TV a good bit over the next twelve months.
Here's the thing, she has marginal charisma and charm....so when this national election comes (September 2021)....the Green Party will have enough support from disenfranchised SPD voters....to likely carry 30-percent of the vote, and marginally (maybe even by 1-point) win the election. The Chancellorship, I think.....will go to the Greens. Their junior partners? The SPD and FDP.
Spahn? He'll take the General Secretary job (what AKK holds right now). Merz? He'll quietly disappear and show up in the spring of 2019 as some CEO.
The CDU Party met this afternoon and voted. Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK) beats Merz.....517 to 482.
Act in front of cameras.....happy-smiley faces. Behind the scenes....I think that forty-percent of the party is disenchanted with the selection, and know that Merkel's entire script and vision....continues on. No changes.
Affect now? AKK will show up on TV a good bit over the next twelve months.
Here's the thing, she has marginal charisma and charm....so when this national election comes (September 2021)....the Green Party will have enough support from disenfranchised SPD voters....to likely carry 30-percent of the vote, and marginally (maybe even by 1-point) win the election. The Chancellorship, I think.....will go to the Greens. Their junior partners? The SPD and FDP.
Spahn? He'll take the General Secretary job (what AKK holds right now). Merz? He'll quietly disappear and show up in the spring of 2019 as some CEO.
Thursday, December 6, 2018
Luxembourg Story
At some point in the summer period of 2019....Luxembourg (the nation) will go to free public transport. No tickets to be required.
Is it really free? No....somewhere in the system, all costs will be borne by the state....without the income tax and sales tax.
Will it make any difference on traffic? Some PhD types think 'yes'. Proof? None. With 590,000 residents across the small nation....about the size of Rhode Island....it's not exactly a big place. Five rail networks cross the small nation, with a tram service within the capital city itself.
The odds that it will be reversed in five to ten years? Personally....I give it a 50-50 shot that it'll be considered a failure unless they ban entry into the city by cars. In fact, I would suggest by the end of 2020.....you will see some car ban discussion going on....just to encourage more people to ride the buses and trains.
Is it really free? No....somewhere in the system, all costs will be borne by the state....without the income tax and sales tax.
Will it make any difference on traffic? Some PhD types think 'yes'. Proof? None. With 590,000 residents across the small nation....about the size of Rhode Island....it's not exactly a big place. Five rail networks cross the small nation, with a tram service within the capital city itself.
The odds that it will be reversed in five to ten years? Personally....I give it a 50-50 shot that it'll be considered a failure unless they ban entry into the city by cars. In fact, I would suggest by the end of 2020.....you will see some car ban discussion going on....just to encourage more people to ride the buses and trains.
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