There is an interesting social 'problem' that has popped up in Germany, and N-TV (commercial news) carried a good explanation of this issue.
In the Basic Law (the German Constitution), there is a paragraph that deals with race. It basically says that no one should be advantaged or disadvantaged because of their race.
The 'chatter' here is that article 3 of the Basic Law is outdated, and this whole discussion on race, should be either removed entirely, or reworded. Some of this discussion is over the idea of clarifying race, and indicating exactly what the Basic Law means, or doesn't mean.
So I went to look up this paragraph. It's fairly simple and direct: "Nobody may be disadvantaged or favored because of their gender, their descent, their race, their language, their home and origin, their beliefs, their religious or political views."
After you read it three or four times....you kinda come to the opinion that it's pretty simple, straightforward, and avoids complications. Whoever sat down decades ago and wrote the piece....probably did a fair amount of thinking and figured they would cover just about every possibility.
Why drag up a change? All this 'chatter' in the US has brought up racism, and Germans are worried that they might have some. So the discussions are now open and political folks are hyped up.
Is there racism in Germany? To some degree, yes....but it's more of a individual thing, and not where a government policy or school program is the trigger of racism. This goes back to something that I've noted for years....you can't really force everyone to think and act alike. There's always going to be 10-percent to 20-percent of society who simply don't flow with the 'norm'.
What'll happen with this debate over the Basic Law reference? An entire summer period will be wasted with intellectuals hyped up over this and wondering if they need to resolve something, or just let it be. Maybe it's a good thing....to keep them busy on this and not meddling with other problems instead.
Wednesday, June 10, 2020
Tuesday, June 9, 2020
The 'KPD'
The topic came up today, and I reviewed how an American journalist told the story, and felt it was rather marginal on details.....so this is my essay over the German KPD Party and it's relationship to history.
Prior to WW I, in Germany....you had a number of political parties, but the 'master' of all parties in Germany was the SPD Party (which is still around today). You'd describe today as 'left-of-center'.
But prior to 1914, they were in some ways a collection of groups, and some folks were mildly left-of-center, and some folks were extreme far-left-of-center.
In the summer of 1914, things change, and the Kaiser presents his war declaration, and the SPD Party stamps its approval. But in the ranks....this element of the far-left exists, and they aren't happy with the war idea.
This is where Karl Liebknecht and Rosa Luxemburg come into the picture, in the summer of 1914. They mount an effort to lead folks out of the SPD....into a new group....the USPD (basically the Independent Social Democrat Party). For five years, you hear mostly nothing out of the group. This is the war period, and marginal political bickering is allowed.
War ends on 11 November 1918, and the Kaiser is forced to leave. Things are shaky for the next seven weeks. The USPD then come to this new reality on 30 December 1918....the Communist Party of Germany will exist (the KPD).
It's safe to say over the next four months....it's a major disaster in Munich and the KPD or it's thugs are in the middle of a civil war. This is eventually put down, but along the way....there's a lot of chat over the future.
From this period, until 1933, the KPD is a significant political player in Germany. Voting-wise? Typically, they can get 15-percent of the vote....but it's mostly all in highly urbanized areas.
The KPD had various minor groups who were versions of the Brownshirts, but their numbers never did amount to much.
After the election of 1933, the KPD was dissembled, and those who did remain....transformed into Antifa, and their enemy were the Nazis. KPD and Antifa being 'anti-commerce' or 'anti-capitalism'? Well....yes, absolutely.
Stories of cooperation between KPD and the Nazi Party......to take down the SPD? Yes, those stories are mostly true, and the belief in KPD's leadership's minds....if the SPD didn't exist....then people would flock to the KPD. It's not clear if this was a brilliant idea or simply made the Nazis stronger. The fact that Antifa/KPD considered the left-of-center SPD as a threat to society? That was far-fetched as well.
You can look back and just say that the SPD folks were mildly interested in socialism, and wanted capitalism to be part of the path ahead. That wasn't the KPD agenda.
Just about every group today that exists within Antifa.....considers themselves warriors and attached to the 1933 period to 1945....fighting the evil Nazis. Unfortunately, they also identified the SPD as targets, and gave the Nazis a chance to grow and expand.
Attachment to Marxism? That's the curious part of the story. Commerce and free-market activities are a major problem for any Antifa member to accept.
Developed originally as simply an alternate to the SPD? That's really a big part of the story, and how they never seemed to get beyond 15-percent of the vote. The use of violence or intimidation as part of the brand? That's also a part of the story that makes the general public a bit stand-offish.
Finally, I should bring up this little part of their history. The KPD folks who escaped Germany and went into Russia....felt safe. In 1937-1938....Stalin had a little 'purge', and a fair number of the members were either executed or sent to Siberia. Stalin, himself....didn't really feel that much attachment to the German brand of the KPD or the Antifa.
Prior to WW I, in Germany....you had a number of political parties, but the 'master' of all parties in Germany was the SPD Party (which is still around today). You'd describe today as 'left-of-center'.
But prior to 1914, they were in some ways a collection of groups, and some folks were mildly left-of-center, and some folks were extreme far-left-of-center.
In the summer of 1914, things change, and the Kaiser presents his war declaration, and the SPD Party stamps its approval. But in the ranks....this element of the far-left exists, and they aren't happy with the war idea.
This is where Karl Liebknecht and Rosa Luxemburg come into the picture, in the summer of 1914. They mount an effort to lead folks out of the SPD....into a new group....the USPD (basically the Independent Social Democrat Party). For five years, you hear mostly nothing out of the group. This is the war period, and marginal political bickering is allowed.
War ends on 11 November 1918, and the Kaiser is forced to leave. Things are shaky for the next seven weeks. The USPD then come to this new reality on 30 December 1918....the Communist Party of Germany will exist (the KPD).
It's safe to say over the next four months....it's a major disaster in Munich and the KPD or it's thugs are in the middle of a civil war. This is eventually put down, but along the way....there's a lot of chat over the future.
From this period, until 1933, the KPD is a significant political player in Germany. Voting-wise? Typically, they can get 15-percent of the vote....but it's mostly all in highly urbanized areas.
The KPD had various minor groups who were versions of the Brownshirts, but their numbers never did amount to much.
After the election of 1933, the KPD was dissembled, and those who did remain....transformed into Antifa, and their enemy were the Nazis. KPD and Antifa being 'anti-commerce' or 'anti-capitalism'? Well....yes, absolutely.
Stories of cooperation between KPD and the Nazi Party......to take down the SPD? Yes, those stories are mostly true, and the belief in KPD's leadership's minds....if the SPD didn't exist....then people would flock to the KPD. It's not clear if this was a brilliant idea or simply made the Nazis stronger. The fact that Antifa/KPD considered the left-of-center SPD as a threat to society? That was far-fetched as well.
You can look back and just say that the SPD folks were mildly interested in socialism, and wanted capitalism to be part of the path ahead. That wasn't the KPD agenda.
Just about every group today that exists within Antifa.....considers themselves warriors and attached to the 1933 period to 1945....fighting the evil Nazis. Unfortunately, they also identified the SPD as targets, and gave the Nazis a chance to grow and expand.
Attachment to Marxism? That's the curious part of the story. Commerce and free-market activities are a major problem for any Antifa member to accept.
Developed originally as simply an alternate to the SPD? That's really a big part of the story, and how they never seemed to get beyond 15-percent of the vote. The use of violence or intimidation as part of the brand? That's also a part of the story that makes the general public a bit stand-offish.
Finally, I should bring up this little part of their history. The KPD folks who escaped Germany and went into Russia....felt safe. In 1937-1938....Stalin had a little 'purge', and a fair number of the members were either executed or sent to Siberia. Stalin, himself....didn't really feel that much attachment to the German brand of the KPD or the Antifa.
Economical News
It's not a crisis, but it is an indication of bad times approaching for the German economy. This morning, if you view the ARD public news channel network....the export story came out.
What the companies are reporting....is that demand for German items is on the decline. In fact, it's the largest drop in German exports, since 1950.
The Federal Statistical Office? They say that goods fell by around 30-percent (in the range of 75.7 billion Euro).
The numbers to March of 2020? 24-percent down.
Recession in the mix.....no doubt.
The sad thing is that it's going to affect job numbers in the next couple of months. Added to this....tax revenue is going to be a problem for the remainder of 2020.
What the companies are reporting....is that demand for German items is on the decline. In fact, it's the largest drop in German exports, since 1950.
The Federal Statistical Office? They say that goods fell by around 30-percent (in the range of 75.7 billion Euro).
The numbers to March of 2020? 24-percent down.
Recession in the mix.....no doubt.
The sad thing is that it's going to affect job numbers in the next couple of months. Added to this....tax revenue is going to be a problem for the remainder of 2020.
Corona Chatter
There was a three-line report in the AM news of Germany....out of the state of Rhineland Pfalz.
What they are saying is that some Coronavirus episode has started up and affecting five schools in the state.
Action? Well.....they say that the classes closed down, with kids, teachers and anyone contacted....going back home and playing home-quarantine.
Odds of more of these occurring? Oh, I'd give it a 99-percent chance that dozens more episodes will occur by the end of the month. But the basic gameplan is to last until summer vacation, and then restart the school year in the fall.
What they are saying is that some Coronavirus episode has started up and affecting five schools in the state.
Action? Well.....they say that the classes closed down, with kids, teachers and anyone contacted....going back home and playing home-quarantine.
Odds of more of these occurring? Oh, I'd give it a 99-percent chance that dozens more episodes will occur by the end of the month. But the basic gameplan is to last until summer vacation, and then restart the school year in the fall.
Monday, June 8, 2020
The News Story
The University of Erfurt put out a study today. It's a curious piece that they've been on....for the past couple of weeks.
What they say is that news consumers are just about maxed out on Corona-related news.
'Flat emotional response' is the key term used, and I think most everyone in Germany would grin and readily agree with that comment.
How they did the study? They basically called up around 1,000 Germans....once in March....once in April, and just asked some in-depth questions. I'll admit....it's probably not a five-star study, and if you'd done this a third month (end of May)....probably 99-percent of people would have said as 'flat' as you can imagine it.
At some point in mid-to-late March....the 8:00 PM national news on ARD (public TV) went 'turbo' and they would quickly move on with days with 'EXTRA', which was another 15-minute full-up Coronavirus only news program. Toss in public forums going on at least five times a week on ZDF or ARD, and the news off newspapers....you were getting 300-percent of what you really needed.
Even my German wife called it too-much around the very end of April and began to mute the TV or flip to some wildlife channel with elephants lounging around.
But I would go and suggest that virtually of these special events....reach a peak. It's the same with the Greta-business and Fridays-for-whatever....it's probably reached a peak. The chatter of the German soccer league in serious financial trouble.....that probably has reached a peak as well. The doom over Trump....that probably peaked out back in February.
People are getting to the point where there is simply too much news.
What they say is that news consumers are just about maxed out on Corona-related news.
'Flat emotional response' is the key term used, and I think most everyone in Germany would grin and readily agree with that comment.
How they did the study? They basically called up around 1,000 Germans....once in March....once in April, and just asked some in-depth questions. I'll admit....it's probably not a five-star study, and if you'd done this a third month (end of May)....probably 99-percent of people would have said as 'flat' as you can imagine it.
At some point in mid-to-late March....the 8:00 PM national news on ARD (public TV) went 'turbo' and they would quickly move on with days with 'EXTRA', which was another 15-minute full-up Coronavirus only news program. Toss in public forums going on at least five times a week on ZDF or ARD, and the news off newspapers....you were getting 300-percent of what you really needed.
Even my German wife called it too-much around the very end of April and began to mute the TV or flip to some wildlife channel with elephants lounging around.
But I would go and suggest that virtually of these special events....reach a peak. It's the same with the Greta-business and Fridays-for-whatever....it's probably reached a peak. The chatter of the German soccer league in serious financial trouble.....that probably has reached a peak as well. The doom over Trump....that probably peaked out back in February.
People are getting to the point where there is simply too much news.
Just Lucky, I Guess
So this study came out today in the German press.....which concerns the Coronavirus, the world, and what 'could have been'.
The PhD folks crunched the numbers and basically said that thanks to bans and rules....3-million people didn't die.
The problem with this, is that it's mostly a model, and they estimated things in the mix. It's also a problem in that it's a nice round number (would have been better to say that 2,987,388 people in my humble opinion).
Added to this problem....Germans kinda question this from various angles. First, this might only be wave number one, with the second wave coming in October....to kill three million at that point. Second, based on China-talk.....maybe there was an extra million dead folks in the mix. Finally, you come to the ban chatter, and how a lot of people are losing faith in this.
So, maybe it's worth pulling out the Johnny Walker Black whiskey you've been keeping and have several shots with your wife or neighbor over our fortunate 'luck'.
The PhD folks crunched the numbers and basically said that thanks to bans and rules....3-million people didn't die.
The problem with this, is that it's mostly a model, and they estimated things in the mix. It's also a problem in that it's a nice round number (would have been better to say that 2,987,388 people in my humble opinion).
Added to this problem....Germans kinda question this from various angles. First, this might only be wave number one, with the second wave coming in October....to kill three million at that point. Second, based on China-talk.....maybe there was an extra million dead folks in the mix. Finally, you come to the ban chatter, and how a lot of people are losing faith in this.
So, maybe it's worth pulling out the Johnny Walker Black whiskey you've been keeping and have several shots with your wife or neighbor over our fortunate 'luck'.
Vote Story
This is a rather complicated story....over illegal voting in Germany (a very rare event). Most Germans will tell you that the current system is fairly stringent, and fraudulent voting is near impossible.
So today, HR (our public TV network in Hessen) lays out what is a corrupted voting scandal.
This happened over Kelsterbach (lies between Wiesbaden and Frankfurt), around four years ago.
What the authorities now say.....after a very long investigation, is that some candidate for a local council position rigged up his election results in the area in some illegal manner.
He got with a couple of associates and then did some false postal voting papers (absentee ballots).
Charges now? Yes, and here's the thing....in Germany, it's a bit rough. Five of years of prison if they go for the max.
The problem here....if you read through the whole investigation and what the journalists lay out....they haven't really stopped with the three. There's apparently 10 more folks, and their 'deeds' might go back over the years, and involve 30 different cases.
A common thing? I would doubt it. It's almost impossible to find a situation where some dead guy votes (unless he dies on election day), or some non-German votes. The absentee system? It might be the one weakest point of their entire system. But if this were about a local election? It would seem that this guy was desperate enough and needing more than just a couple of votes. It just makes you wonder if you were involved into fifty-odd or a hundred-odd vote situations.
So today, HR (our public TV network in Hessen) lays out what is a corrupted voting scandal.
This happened over Kelsterbach (lies between Wiesbaden and Frankfurt), around four years ago.
What the authorities now say.....after a very long investigation, is that some candidate for a local council position rigged up his election results in the area in some illegal manner.
He got with a couple of associates and then did some false postal voting papers (absentee ballots).
Charges now? Yes, and here's the thing....in Germany, it's a bit rough. Five of years of prison if they go for the max.
The problem here....if you read through the whole investigation and what the journalists lay out....they haven't really stopped with the three. There's apparently 10 more folks, and their 'deeds' might go back over the years, and involve 30 different cases.
A common thing? I would doubt it. It's almost impossible to find a situation where some dead guy votes (unless he dies on election day), or some non-German votes. The absentee system? It might be the one weakest point of their entire system. But if this were about a local election? It would seem that this guy was desperate enough and needing more than just a couple of votes. It just makes you wonder if you were involved into fifty-odd or a hundred-odd vote situations.
Germany and the Corona App
Well, if you follow German public TV news (ARD), then this is the latest over the weekend about this newly developed Corona App that will be available for your smartphone.
The geeks will say that it was all ready in April....but some privacy issues were laid out and the government approval wasn't forthcoming.
The Health Minister (Spahn, CDU) announced that the App will be released in the next week. Zero cost....at this point.
Two issues basically stalled this from release. First was the privacy of data business, and this has been solved apparently. The second was this problem of power-consumption. Whatever was in the program originally....was a battery-drainer, and this has been resolved in some degree. Most folks admit....if this were to take up a quarter of battery power and trigger constant recharging.....it'd be doomed upon release.
The way this works? You load the App, and come down with the Covid-19 virus. They note your smartphone and proceed to note all the people you 'bumped' into over the past couple of days, and a mass notification takes place.
So you start to think about this. Me? I'm a retiree and I might be all over Wiesbaden and be within 250 people on an average day (at least before the virus period started). I'd be at the ice cream shop....coffee shop.....riding the bus around town.....walking through stores....and just hanging out. So this mass email would go to 250 folks, and the odds are that 20-percent would freak out.
Just ten old guys like me, with Corona....could unsettle 2,500 residents from the town. A hundred old guys like me with Corona? 25,000 residents might be worried.
How many will download the App? Unknown. Right now....it's voluntary. My guess is that in the first month....maybe five-to-ten percent of the population will put it on the phone. Maybe by November....we might reach the forty-percent level.
The conspiracy crowd going against it? Yes, without any doubt. The geeky pro-privacy crowd? They probably won't support the App either.
Me? I'd just be worried that my German wife would hack into this and start tracking my movements throughout the day and figure out my ice cream stops and frequent stops at cafes to sip apple wine in the summer time.
The geeks will say that it was all ready in April....but some privacy issues were laid out and the government approval wasn't forthcoming.
The Health Minister (Spahn, CDU) announced that the App will be released in the next week. Zero cost....at this point.
Two issues basically stalled this from release. First was the privacy of data business, and this has been solved apparently. The second was this problem of power-consumption. Whatever was in the program originally....was a battery-drainer, and this has been resolved in some degree. Most folks admit....if this were to take up a quarter of battery power and trigger constant recharging.....it'd be doomed upon release.
The way this works? You load the App, and come down with the Covid-19 virus. They note your smartphone and proceed to note all the people you 'bumped' into over the past couple of days, and a mass notification takes place.
So you start to think about this. Me? I'm a retiree and I might be all over Wiesbaden and be within 250 people on an average day (at least before the virus period started). I'd be at the ice cream shop....coffee shop.....riding the bus around town.....walking through stores....and just hanging out. So this mass email would go to 250 folks, and the odds are that 20-percent would freak out.
Just ten old guys like me, with Corona....could unsettle 2,500 residents from the town. A hundred old guys like me with Corona? 25,000 residents might be worried.
How many will download the App? Unknown. Right now....it's voluntary. My guess is that in the first month....maybe five-to-ten percent of the population will put it on the phone. Maybe by November....we might reach the forty-percent level.
The conspiracy crowd going against it? Yes, without any doubt. The geeky pro-privacy crowd? They probably won't support the App either.
Me? I'd just be worried that my German wife would hack into this and start tracking my movements throughout the day and figure out my ice cream stops and frequent stops at cafes to sip apple wine in the summer time.
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