Friday, November 16, 2018

"Ehrenmann"?

Every year in Germany, there is a contest where teachers, administrators and counselors come to announce the 'youth-word-of-the-year'.  It tends to be some creative phrase that kids just start using in social media and people wake up to realize that it's gone national.

So this year? "Ehrenmann".

What's it really mean?  Well....."honorary wife",  You'd use it in a German youth group to note someone who has done something really great or special for you (like making you cupcakes, or doing your homework for you).

Two other phrases came up during the ranking? 

"Leeks", which tends to be jerks.

Another one...."verbuggt", which means you wrote something or produced something, and it's loaded with problems or mistakes.

How do these phrase come to be created?  Some German kid is just sitting there and something happens....then he just says something off the top of his head.  It gets passed around....social media takes it from school to school, and everybody knows the word in less than a year.

Fake Cop?

This morning, via the local Hessen public TV network news....there is this odd story out of Frankfurt which I noted.

On one of the Autobahns around Frankfurt (A66)....cops noticed this BMW that drew their attention.....I suspect because of the color scheme....the same tint of blue as a German police-car.

So they pulled the guy over and asked for an ID and papers.

Problems?  No insurance papers.  No drivers license on his person.  Some drug usage noted and a blood test taken.  Lights, signals and acoustic-type equipment added to make the car appear to be a cop-car. 

Nationality?  German.

The suspicion?  Well....they think he might have been pulling people over and issuing fake fines.  But there's little proof of that. 

The color decals that represent a cop car?  All there except the word 'polizei'.

My guess is that he'll end up in some court and have to explain to the judge what his activity has been, and get some word of warning....then a suspended license possibly for the drug-use while driving. 

The 'What If' Hitler Scenario

In May of 1945.....the Soviets are on the schedule to take Berlin.  Adolf Hitler and his 'entourage' are sitting in the bunker, with a dismal future hanging over them.

Around the second week of May....there is a basic plan laid out for the Fuhrer and his entourage to leave the bunker....board a couple of planes kept on standby in Berlin....and fly south into the Austrian mountains.

In early May, there is this idea that a last-minute effort can be put up and the Soviets stalled....maybe for six to eight weeks (that's being overly optimistic).  This force has no real tank support....the troops are mostly young teens or old men....and the equipment is simply not there.

The staff plan is for Hitler to get up on the 20th (his birthday)....probably around early afternoon (remember, he has a sleep issue)....dress....then leave the bunker and board the plane. 

In the two or three days prior....the general in charge of this last Berlin effort is demanding some support....some additional force, and admitting that the Russians will take Berlin by 30 May.  Hitler takes the news in a negative way.  Mentality and physically.....he's in bad shape and probably suffering through a mental breakdown. 

He decides, much to the negativity of his entourage....to stay.  But he gives them the option of boarding the planes and leaving.  Some fight over the seating and leave.....some are left in Berlin.

So the what-if scenario is this....what if the general had come and said he'd hold Berlin for six weeks, and just plain lied?  One last effort to make the Fuhrer happy?

Hitler would have taken this.....boarded the plane on 20 May, and left for the Alps. 

It's hard to estimate the rest of this scenario.  Both the Americans and Russians would have centered their efforts on the Alps once they knew that Hitler had left.  There are various tunnels and bunkers in the region....he could have stayed hid for a month or two.  My best guess is that four weeks into this Alps escape....some last effort to get Hitler on a plane and fly him south toward Africa, and then across the Atlantic to Argentine would have occurred. 

With quiet surroundings, less stress....he might have physically recovered (the Parkinsons problem would still be there), and maybe lived three to five years in some mountainous village in Argentina.  All of this....naturally goes back to this moment of the general, and his assessment of Berlin falling in a matter of days, and Hitler wanting to lead one last battle. 

The Railway Story

I sat through some early morning German news (via N-TV, the commercial network) and this odd piece on railway travel came up.

The EU....always out to 'fix' things....decided that railway travelers are being 'cheated' in some fashion when they buy a ticket, and the train runs late.

So there is this draft proposal going on.  The jest of this?  Starting in 2020....you as a passenger on railways in Europe, would have rights.

The 'pain' put upon rail services?  If you are more than one hour late on arriving where you were destined.....half of the ticket would be reimbursed.  90 minutes late?  Then you'd get three-quarters of the ticket price back.  And if two hours late.....well....you'd get the entire ticket cost back.

The general reaction by railway services across Europe?  Fairl negative.

Right now, if you live in Germany.....if your train dumps you for the night and won't finish the trip, then they have to cover the cost of a hotel room.  This more or less....pushes the Bahn folks into making every single effort to wrap up a planned trip.

Another odd piece to the EU draft legislation.....they want to force the rail services to provide parking on board the trains for bicycles. 

If this all passes?  I would offer these three thoughts on the future of railway service in Europe:

1.  Ticket prices are going to escalate 'big-time' (maybe a 25-percent jump).  In some countries, it might even go fifty-percent.  Once you start to lay out pay-back deals....the companies have no choice but to anticipate problems and make the cost factored into the system. 

2.  How you get the money back for your lateness?  You can anticipate this being a significant mess and likely taking at least three months.

3.  Finally, if you look around most German trains (express lines).....they have the room built into the system for bicycle parking.  The same is true for the Netherlands.  Onboard the ICE (the fast intercity trains) vehicles?  Not so much.  I suspect tickets for the bikes to ride will be increased.

All of this of course, has to take into consideration weather issues.....which are the waiver of the entire legislation.

Being a regular traveler via German rail....I will say that it's amazing that they run on-time at the level that they do.  Out of a hundred trips....they typically arrive within ten minutes of the anticipated time....probably 98-percent of the time.  The times that they run 30 to 60 minutes late?  You can bank on it always being in the midst of a snow-storm or bitter cold weather spell. 

Did the EU really need to get into this?  I have my doubts.  This should have been kept as a national issue and not dumped on the EU's doorstep.

Thursday, November 15, 2018

Health Story

There's a piece written up on Focus (the German news magazine) today, which talks to a study by the World Health Organization (WHO).  So they looked at countries across the globe and gave a typical health report and age expectation. 

In Europe....the Germans are at the low end.  It's something you wouldn't expect because of the outstanding medical situation here.  But the experts note ready access to alcohol and cigarettes, along with a growing obesity problem.  Most of Europe was ranked 'better' than the Germans in terms of life expectancy. 

It's a story that will probably get discussed via public forums and the news media for several weeks. 

Green Party Chatter

In the last couple of weeks, there's been a fair amount of hype over a SPD Party idea to just dump Hartz IV (the German welfare system).  Most folks....especially the receivers of Hartz IV, will agree that the welfare program simply hasn't worked (for almost fifteen years) as it was originally promoted to replace the old welfare program.

Today, the Green Party came out with the newest twist on this welfare business....as told by ARD (public TV here in Germany, Channel One).

The Green Party boss....Habeck....now suggests that the entire program, with the compulsions and sanctions...needs to be dumped.  The new term being tossed around?  'Guarantee guarantee'.

One single source of money....the unemployment check, the social assistance, the check for housing/heat/utilities, the kid's money.....all neatly bundled into one single pay-out.

The idea of compulsing people to seek work?  The Greens say....dump it.

Oh yeah....right off the bat....the SPD, CDU and FDP folks got real negative about that idea.

To pay for the higher costs involved?  Habeck suggests more taxes on internet companies and financial organizations (banks, investment groups, etc).  How much?  No one has a good number on this....but it has to be tens of billions on top of the current social welfare program. 

Selling this concept to the general public?  I think the welfare crowd would prefer one single entity and check coming in....with ease of comfort to do the math over survival.  However, let's be honest....once you assign some fair amount of money to folks....the first reaction will be that there is some unfair tactic or strategy being used and the money is not enough.  Some folks living in the inner city of Frankfurt will tell you that to find an apartment big enough for a couple and three kids....on welfare....you'd be talking about 1,600 Euro (roughly 2,000 US dollars), then you start figuring utilities, food, etc....and this adds up to 3,500 Euro (going to 4,100 US dollars) a month.  If you told the general public how much this adds up to....they'd go ballistic.

Most folks are suggesting that looking at the lack of job certification or apprentice accomplishment in their youth....you'd do far better to take welfare folks back into job-training and spend a year coaching them to 'succeed' in life and get them a real job....paying taxes...etc.

But this Green Party chatter ought invoke a number of public forums as they argue how thing will go onto the next mes. 

Raid This Morning

Out of Berlin this morning....according to RBB (Berlin public TV), around 5 to 6 AM....roughly 500 to 600 policemen stormed four sites in Berlin.  One was the leftist 'center' on Riga Strasse, and the three others were in the suburbs of Neukolln and Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg.

What drove the 'raid'?  There is a list of seven suspected criminals from a robbery in Kreuzberg back in May of this year.  Evidence existed that pointed to the four locations.  So far (at least at mid-morning), there's been one single guy detained. 

An Arab-mafia clan?  No one has really suggested that (oddly). 

The significance of Riga Strasse?  Well....that's a curious part of the story.  You can go back over the past decade and find a number of extreme leftists out of this one street area, who are known for taking over deserted properties and occupying them.  Petty crime?  It's rare that you find such a crime and pin it on the Riga Strasse crowd.  The Riga Stasse crowd connected to mafia clans?  That's something new....if proven. 

The use of the federal police?  That's also a small hint that there's some bigger attachment to the crime or evidence that the cops have. 


German Economics Story

Is the German economy stumbling along now?  Well....this morning, the ARD folks (public TV in Germany, Channel One) stood up and laid out this economical issue brewing.

Numbers now say that the German economy did a 'dip' in the third quarter of 2018 (something we haven't seen in three years). 

When you go and look at the gross domestic product....it's off by .2 percent since the last quarter.

Why?  The experts are looking primarily at the car industry in Germany....with the diesel problems out in full display and some companies trimming back production in this period because they are fearful of consequences. 

Exporting?  That slowed down as well.  Some say that the trade conflict with the US might have played a role in this. 

So what does it really mean?  It's not a drastic turn.....but experts always suggest that the German economy is what drives not just Germany.....but Europe itself, and so there's some anxiety that if this is a recession or long period of economical unknowns....it hurts all of the EU.