Sunday, September 18, 2016

Berlin Election Results

Berlin polling stations closed at 6PM.  Results presently:

SPD: 23-percent
CDU: 18-percent
Green Party: 16.5-percent
Linke Party: 16.5-percent
AfD Party: 11.5-percent
FDP: 5-percent

More results will roll in but these numbers will likely stay within one percent of what is reported at 6PM.

What you can take out of this?  The Pirate Party is finished off.....they barely got 2-percent of the vote.  The SPD fell from five years ago.....but they did win this election.  Both the CDU and SPD lost 5 points off their results of 2011.....which isn't something you'd want to brag about.  The Linke Party did gain five points over 2011 results and this shows they are still active.  Finally, the FDP did exceptionally well....pulling 4.7-points better than in 2011.

AfD was believed last week to be closing in on 15-percent.....which they missed.  But the Berlin election is about a number (over twenty) urban problems or issues, which are totally different from the national election.

Also, it should be pointed out that in West Berlin.....both the CDU and SPD did better than the east-end (old DDR section).  The east-end voted heavily for the Linke Party and the AfD.

Who showed up?  Sixty-six percent of those registered.....voted.


blurij said...

Do you see a time when the AfD and FPD parties would ever coalesce or join in governing given the chance ? Can nationalism and capitalism find common ground ?

What is their current relationship if any? I am aware that the FPD is part of Merkel's governing coalition. Is that relationship fraying any ?

I get the impression that the FPD would rather be part of the ruling government than breaking ranks and bucking up the AfD. The FPD I guess is like our RINO republicans and the AfD is more like our Tea Party.

R Hammond said...

Zero chance that AfD and FDP will have some fundamental moments of agreement.

The current coalition is CDU and SPD. The FDP got pushed out of the Bundestag in the last election because they had less than 5-percent of the vote....missing it by .2 percent (go figure that one). The FDP has been on some rebuilding trend the last year and in state elections....has picked up some interest. For 2017's election...I think they will clear the 5-percent point easily....maybe getting up to 7-percent nationally.

What I will generally say about the FDP is that they are pro-business and talk of lower taxes but never seem to identify where the cuts will come from. The people that vote FDP are (at least in previous decades) casting a frustration vote against the CDU and SPD. Beyond that, they seem to be mostly worthless....although they've had a couple of great debate people who can really jab at both the CDU and SPD.

For the AfD folks? Maybe in ten years, they've got more maturity and removed some of the nuts from within the system. Right now, if they were running a national government, you'd just have to shake your head. If you look for positions on the twenty-odd national topics beyond immigration.....they barely have anything written down for maybe five or six things, and they are acting like a one-topic political party. The bulk of votes in the state elections of the past year? These are mostly all frustration votes by the public to send a message to Berlin. So far, Berlin has not gotten the they will continue.

Toward May, will come the last of the state elections for NRW. Polls aren't being done, which suggests that the news media doesn't want to admit how bad this state election will go. I think the AfD folks will clear 20-percent in this election. If another Koln riot occurs like the evening of 31 December'll really hurt the CDU a massive number of cops will show up in Koln to ensure no repeat, but the public is still angry over what happened.

I do agree that the AfD folks are populists and getting traction strictly because of weak ineffective government out of Berlin, with an amazing number of miscalculations (for an intellectual crowd). Toss in the use of social media which has really changed the political landscape, the use of YouTube to put out messages, and lack of trust with the news media....and you've got a mess brewing with no clear end. The shocker is that there is no clear party or opposition candidate standing there....which seems to be the anti-Merkel or solution to this discontent. To say that the Nov 2017 German election simply opens the door to the 2021 election and more frustration votes, in my humble opinion.