Monday, September 12, 2016

The Distance Between Fact and Fiction: Germany

For several months, I've watched both US, British and German journalists sit and write stories which were partly true, mostly true, or completely false on events in Germany.  So, I'll take my "whack" at ten things.

1.  Threats to Germans.  Presently, I'd rate my safety level as 99.99-percent safe in the Wiesbaden area....and that's about fifty times safer than Memphis or Atlanta.  And that's even considering walking around at night.

Oh, I admit, there are two areas of this local town (280,000) where I might avoid after 9PM (after dark).....but 99-percent of the city is absolutely safe. The same goes for Mainz....and most German cities.

For Frankfurt, well, if you were to walk around the Taunus Strasse.....I'd rate it a 24-hour a day place to avoid.  The rest of Frankfurt....I'd rate near 97-percent safe.

There are some major urban areas....like Koln, Berlin, or Stuttgart....that might deserve some worry.  The bulk of rural areas in Germany?  You could sip beer on the steps of a local church for the next forty years and never see a potential threat ever.

So when someone chats up a storm about a growing threat.....you need to think about just how safe it is presently and how that compares to cities in the US.

2.  If someone in Germany wants a gun.....all they have to do is go apply at the local station.  If they were in some war zone, or been arrested for violence or threats.....they won't get a license.  If their doctor won't sign off on their mental situation, they won't get a license.  If they can't pass the stupid gun or hunting class.....they won't get a license.  My best guess is that 70-percent of German society, if they desired a gun.....could get the license.  The rest?  They might be people that you'd prefer not to have a weapon.

The odds of anyone in my entire village of 4,000 people getting attacked....in the home?  Pretty much a one-in-ten-billion type scenario.  The odds of me getting assaulted in Wiesbaden?  Pretty close to a one-in-a-billion type scenario....unless I walked in a neighborhood or two after 10PM at night.

So, here's the blunt truth.....I just don't need a gun.  If I wanted to get into hunting (wild boar), then there might be a reason to have a gun.  You can ask any of the 4,000 folks around my village and no one can think of a reason to hold a gun.....other than for hunting purposes.

3.  Taxing the hell out of people.  On this topic, you can view every single tax and how they add up, and an average guy is losing fifty-percent of his pay-check.  What he gets in return?  It's hard to say if a guy gets his fair share of the return.

4.  All of the incoming refugees are lacking education or job skills.  Well.....NO.  If you go and study the overall numbers....roughly 30-percent of all immigrants have a skill, craft or degree which can be put to use.  The remaining 70-percent?  Yeah, they lack the education or skill to do anything and that is troublesome.

But here's the odd thing......Assad from Syria put a lot of effort into educating Syrians.  Different studies exist on this, but you tend to see over sixty-percent of men and women from Syria have some kind of craft or education that leads onto a job after the language business is wrapped up.

From North Africa?  It's probably less than ten-percent who have a skill or craft or education to use.  Eventually, Germans will realize this issue and become very picky about who they accept.

5.  Merkel in serious trouble.  It's pretty much a 100-percent deal that she won't run as the CDU chief in the November 2017 national election.  Up until this immigration business went south, most folks were awful happy over her performance.  Today, they'd just like for her to retire and move on.....and something come to fix the immigration crisis.  Kicking her out early?  Why?  There's literally no one that can fill the shoes and the public has finally come to grasp that.  It's a lousy slate for the national election.

So, if anyone was thinking that Germans are fired up for an election to get rid of Merkel.....well....no.  They might be fired up to change the make-up of the Bundestag and do some reforms on immigration and integration.  But there's no urgent need to hustle "mutti" out because there's just no replacement to fit the position.

6. 500 potential terrorists in Germany?  Yeah.  There might be that many.  It surprises folks about every ten days of a major bust by the national cops.  Some suspect....some group.....some bit of intelligence.  German cops have been aggressive for two years now.  Every bit of usage via social media?  It just leaves a trail and these stupid idiots have never grasped who is viewing all of their stupid comments.

Lately, we've been having some folks note that when they catch these Sarafists or extremists.....based on mental reviews.....they consider most all of these people mentally unfit or having some questionable mental behavior.  I admit.....it would be odd if we reach a point where just acting like an extremist would be enough to get you into a mental facility for the rest of your life.....but this is Germany, and they are pretty creative at facilities (remember the 1930s).

7.  Tons of Muslim kids being born and will outgrow German population.  Well, here's the honest truth.  Any idiot who thinks that he can support a wife and six kids....on a tire-shop salary....is begging for a mental exam.  Getting welfare and supporting these six kids?  Go for it.....you will be living on the edge of society and having just enough to get by.  The kids will continually be asking why Dad can't make more money, and why they are so impoverished?  Studies show that some immigrants try to go on to have kids but they tend to realize by the third kid.....they just won't be able to afford more.  Then other studies show that second-generation immigrants all REVERT to the German attitude.....of one or two kids....max.

Germany has anchored itself down......with low wages, high taxes, and a high cost of living.  No one.....goes to have more kids unless they have a technical skill or craft that really does pay well as the guy hits forty to sixty years old.  Show me what immigrant fits into this highly desired skill or craft deal.

8.  Cities overflowing with immigrants.  Well....cities were overflowing already fifteen years ago.  There's just no affordable housing being constructed for the low-wage earner.  Go to any major urban area.....Frankfurt, Hamburg, Berlin, etc.....it's all the same.

Construction of upper-cost houses and apartments?  That continues.  If you are a low-wage earner.....you'd best be looking for homes or apartments in the "burbs" twenty or thirty kilometers out of town.

One should also note that there's been a trend since the 1970s for people to move further and further out of town.....so those in the middle of towns who remain.....often create little ghetto operations.  No one really cares because the people with real jobs or real money.....left two or three decades ago.

9.  The AfD Party is moving up.  The anti-immigration slant of the AfD Party?  It has a limit.  People agree.....they aren't happy with the various parties within the Bundestag today.  But getting past 25-percent in the national vote?  It won't happen in 2017, and I'd have doubts even for 2021.  But if they just got 10 percent.....they could sit there and ask stupid questions, which the top parties would have to answer in public.  That's really all you need to do.....reinforce people to be honest and to do the right thing when running a government.

10.  The burqa business. To be honest, no one knows how many women wear the facial covering burqa or the open-face burqa.  Nor do I think anyone (even journalists) want to go and count up the number.

If you ask me to make a number up on facial covering burqas.....I have this number in my mind....across all of Germany (16 states) of about 16,000.  It might even be too high.

The true German opinion?  Two years ago.....they probably didn't have much of an opinion....mostly because there weren't that many around.  If you live in a rural section of eastern Germany.....you might go an entire year without seeing a single one.  If you live in some rural section of the Pfalz....unless you went to Mainz or Worms.....you probably won't see any.   Today.....Germans have an opinion and they are mostly (probably 65-to-70 percent anti-facial covering).

Will some law come to fix this or make people happy?  Hard to say.  Some folks think that the courts will throw out such a law.

That's my opinion and humble thoughts on fact and fiction in Germany.

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