Friday, September 30, 2016

The Numbers Story

For months here in 2016, the government had stuck by the story of 1.1 million refugees, immigrants and migrants entering Germany in 2015.  In the past twenty-four hours.....they dropped that "fact" and went to the current number of 890,000 (more or less).  That's 210,000 less migrants.

How did they screw up?

A lot of Germans seem to have forgotten that for almost a decade.....Germany had been projecting itself at 82 million residents, then one day....a software team arrived and began to look at the database (this would have been around 2007-2010).  The team eventually went up and spoke to the boss.....there's some duplicates in the master listing.

Well.....how many?  By the end, they had cut almost one-million Germans off the master list of residents.

It seems that when folks pack up and move from one city to another....they go and register themselves at the new city, and the old city "deducts" them.  Well....folks weren't being deducted in every single case.  Some towns lost thousands (like Kaiserslautern for example).  Some complained but the reality was that there just weren't 82-million people existing at that point.  Note: this has changed in the past twelve months and they've pumped themselves back up to 82-million.

So with the refugees....did they so easily add 210,000?

My guess is that as a hundred guys showed up at such-and-such center at the Bavarian border....Huns-the-computer-guy entered all hundred into a database and gave them a small sheet of paper, with a name and special number.  Then they gave the hundred a box lunch and a bottle of water....two hours later, a bus came and took them to the "welcome-center" where they'd get a shower, clean clothing, and a bunk for two or three days.

A couple of the hundred asked questions and noted that they had relatives in Hessen or the Pfalz, and wanted to sent onto that region.....but they'd lost that slip of paper.  So the computer guy asked for info and eventually made another entry, with another number, and printed another slip of paper.

Then a couple of the folks get put on a bus and land in the Pfalz....at a more permanent camp.  Something happens at this point, where another dozen guys arrive, who've lost their slips.....and the next computer guy enters them yet a third time.

Day after day in 2015.....folks were added....maybe a second, a third, a fourth, and maybe even a fifth time.

The system was begging to be fixed, and the leadership just couldn't grasp that fact.  The sad thing is that this overage of 210,000 would have lessen the criticism of the Merkel government, and lessen the push by the AfD in 2015 and 2016.  In some ways, they helped to marginalize the Merkel government by their stupidity.

But this brings me to this odd feature of the problem.  So.....all this money funneled into the chaos.....is it for real people, or just made-up numbers?  Are we all paying taxes into a funnel to cover the migrants and immigrants......who don't exist?

Then we come to other odd question.  The 210,000.....do they come equally from each of the sixteen states....or did they all come from primarily two or three states?  Oddly, they really didn't lay out this part of the issue, nor did the reporters ask any additional questions.

The other funny thing to this.....it radically changes the country-make-up of the migrants.  There were less Iraqis....less Syrians....etc.  Yet no one asked questions about that either.

So here we are....the Berlin crowd admitted to yet another screw-up with this whole thing, but at least it lessen the impact of 2015 (twenty-percent less).

2 comments:

Terrekain said...

I am not sure how much credibility Germany's Interior has with its people. This goes double for the credibility of the Press reporting on "facts".

As an outsider, I view them with the same skepticism as I view the American Homeland Security and the American Press, who's methodology and "facts" are notoriously unreliable, if not manipulative.

Neither the 1.1 million, nor the 890 thousand numbers would make any difference to me since I wouldn't have the time to peruse and verify their methodology, make background checks on their surveyors, auditing, etc. And since I couldn't trust media personalities and entities to investigate the veracity of those numbers, their regurgitation of "facts" are meaningless.

1.1 million or 890 thousand?

11.6 million or 11.5 million?

To many Americans, these numbers are just noise, not "facts" as credulous people would want to believe. The proof of the pudding is in the tasting. Americans are generally more concerned with the chaos they witness in the immigration situation, from falling wages and crime, to the ban on checking voter ID and migration slums that pop up in their neighborhoods. I believe the pronouncements of the American "Interior Ministry" and Press have little weight with most of the American Public.

My guess, given what I perceive as the political troubles of the ruling German politicians today, is that a good chunk of Germans view people, who credulously repeat numbers from dubious institutions as "facts", as themselves suspicious if not malicious.

890,000?

Speaking as a foreigner, I take that with a large grain of salt.

In a larger context, the number of migrants is a distraction from the cultural question of the number of Muslims in Germany. But as an American, I could care less what the Germans do with their country; our soldiers and airmen should have been withdrawn once the wall came down. They belong in America, guarding America's Northern and SOuthern borders from this kind of chaos.

Mark Anthony said...

I agree with Terrekain, the US occupation of Germany should end. I do care what happens in Germany since it is the heart of Western Civilization, if it is debased with a Arab/African/Muslim population it will become a fetid third world swamp and its creative force lost forever - which is unique to Germany and Europe.