Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Berlin State Election from 2011?

With the Berlin state election coming up in two weeks.....one might go back to look at 2011 and how things went in the last state election there:

SPD: 28.3-percent
CDU: 23.4-percent
Pirate Party: 8.9-percent
Linke Party: 11.6-percent
Green Party: 17.6-percent

The rest went to marginal parties that had no standing in the regional parliament.

This election?

If AfD is successful in getting 250,000 Russian-Germans in the state...that would amount to roughly 20-percent of the vote by itself, and you could throw in another 100,000 of just angry and frustrated Germans.....then this would give them roughly 25-percent of the vote.  My take is that probably won't be the result.

There are several unusual factors in this election.  The Pirate Party has made a large effort this time around and might exceed what they had from the last election.

These Russian-Germans might come out and vote in big numbers....and we exceed the roughly 1.5 million who voted in 2011.

The CDU?  They, and their associates from the SPD....will both lose around three or four points each from the 2011 election.....which will be a problem to explain via the journalists.

The Linke Party?  They probably won't match what they got in 2011, and that will also drag up questions about their strength going into 2017's big election year.

My general take is that the Green Party might actually reach up to around 23-percent this time and win the election.  It is odd.....there's been very few polls accomplished since May in Berlin. Even the local state-run network hasn't said much over how the parties are doing politically.

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