Elections and 2019 in Germany

I read over a story from Focus this morning which had to do with three state elections for 2019 in Germany.....all in eastern Germany states. 

So polling has been done....a year out from the three elections.  Pretty much guaranteed that the AfD Party (the anti-immigration folks) will take a minimum of 20-percent in all three elections. 

In fact, in Saxony, it's believed that AfD is resting at 25-percent and just five points away from the leader (the CDU, at 30 percent).  A twist and turn over the next year, and AfD could possibly win the election....although there is zero chance they can get a coalition together.  My guess is that the 2nd place winner (if the AfD did win) would have to move ahead and get two to three weaker parties.....to build a working coalition. 

If this AfD 'expansion' were to play out for the three elections (I'm suggesting 20-to-25 percent in all three elections), what does it really mean or trend into?

First, before the three state elections....there's the June EU election, where typically 55-to-60 percent of people show up to vote (using the past two elections as a measurement).  Germans typically don't care for this election that much.  It's possible that the AfD might mount a real campaign....hype things enough to make the election about EU-immigration policy, and get 25-percent of the nationally (this would be a major shock for the general public).  In turn, three months later...it'd pave the way for bigger wins in the three state elections.

Second, if you read through everything.....the SPD is really going to suffer big in these three elections and they will have to go and find bold leadership for the party 'face' in 2020 and beyond.

Third, a vote for the AfD is really more of a signal that the Merkel vision for migration and immigration simply isn't working well, and the public has to send this message for change.  However, Merkel is incapable of finding a solution, and I think the expected replacement for Merkel (AKK)....is a carbon copy, so you shouldn't expect this public anger to lessen.

Fourth and final.....we are in the midst of a curious 'fit of anger' by roughly a quarter of the population who simply aren't buying into immigration program and decisions made from 2013 to present.  Even if you asked the 'smart' folks on how to repair this and move forward, I don't think you could get a real suggestion out of them.  You'd probably have to start with the Constitution, and reword the text that says everyone gets a chance at requesting asylum, and that just isn't going to happen. 

So I'd prepare for 2019's election year and expect it to be a pretty hectic ride.