Turks and Lira Woes

For a week, there's been hype in Germany over the idea that the Germans might FUND a recovery pot of money for the Turks (in serious trouble).

I have sat and read through at least twenty pieces written on the topic, and will offer these four observations:

1.  No one says the amount that might be considered, which is odd....unless the amount frightens people enough to just avoid saying it in public.  A couple of billion Euro?  No.  More than 20-billion Euro?  More than likely.  Exceeding 200-billion?  I would take a guess that is just the minimum.  And that would freak a bunch of Germans out.....because there is NO way that they'd agree to that massive of a loan.

2.  Conditions.  When German loaned Greece money.....conditions were set, and it freaked the Greeks out big time.  So in this case, I'm guessing the Germans will say that the folks arrested in the coup from two years ago....have to be released.  And the Turks aren't likely to agree to that.  Other changes?  I'm guessing that a minimum of ten major conditions will be established. 

3.  Would accepting the German loan harm Erdogan's reputation?  Well....yeah.  He'll have to bend over a bit, and he's not the type to respect that type of 'force'.

4.  If you loan them the money.....will they recover?  You'd have to undo the coup damage and restructure the government spending plans.  I don't think they want to recover in that fashion.....so it's hard to envision this going well.

Am I suggesting all this German hype is for NOTHING?  Yes.