Saturday, August 25, 2018

The Italian Poker Play

It's a curious 'play' by Italy and NTV (commercial news) lays out the story.

As most of you know....over the past year or two, the smuggling folks have shifted from Turkey over to the waters of the south Med.  Charity groups have vessels and they loiter around to pick up folks and then 'dump' them at European ports (mostly Italy).  The Italians have been frustrated because they really don't want to continue this game, and they are stuck with migrants to feed and shelter.  The EU?  They can't invent a system to force the 28 members of the EU to 'take' refugees.

So the newest move by Italy is to suggest that they will reduce their contribution to the EU.

Go figure the amount discussed at near 20-billion Euro. 

Legally....can they do that?  There's really not a mechanism where you punish the EU by withholding money.  The EU, at least the ways that I've heard the situation described in recent months, was smart enough not to write this into the rules. 

In this case, Italy is making up a rule or standard....to see how the EU will react. 

The EU could react and say they won't send any 'gifts' to the Italian farmers, or fund any Italian construction projects (roads, bridges, etc).  Italy would just disperse the 20-billion to their own system and continue on (my humble guess).

This solution over the migrant crisis?  The clock is ticking.  June of 2019, there's another EU election and I suspect that various right-wing political groups will get serious representation in the EU (maybe up to 25-percent).  The EU really needs to shuffle this problem around and find some common ground, but it's hard to see how this gets solved.

Could other members start withholding money?  It's best not to suggest that.  With BREXIT coming and no deal on the table so far.....the UK might withhold money when they realize the deal won't occur. 

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