Thursday, November 8, 2018

After the Merkel Era

This is one of those essays where I'm simply laying out what I perceive as the landscape in 2021 or the decade after Chancellor Merkel leaves office in Germany.

I suspect the bulk of German society (maybe even up to eighty-percent) will let out a sigh of relief and just suggest that it's time to 'move on'.  Then you....the non-German....will ask, what exactly do you believe is the 'move on' goal?

Well....that will draw this long moment of silence because I don't think Germans really know where this era will take them....just that they seem to feel things are sluggish and stagnant.

Better economy?  Back in 2009, at around 7.8-percent unemployment and that banking disaster period in full-bloom....folks needed a decent 'ship and sail' to move forward.  Today....the unemployment rate is near 3.5 percent, and for the past five years....almost each quarter has brought the unemployment level down a notch.  Most major German businesses....with the exception of the banking sector, can sit and brag over their opportunistic feelings.  The fact that storefronts are appearing empty in cities across Germany?  Well....you might owe part of that to overbuilding in the past decade.

Better relations within the EU?  Other than blunt words over Poland, Hungary, and Czech in the past year, and maybe some irritated British feelings over BREXIT talks.....you can't find many Germans whining over their European partners. 

Better relations with the US or Russia?  Most Germans perceive that both Trump and Putin have to leave before things can improve, so sweeping out Merkel for a replacement....probably won't do much of anything.

Better social structure?  Well....there is a massive poverty issue being discussed weekly in Germany, but unless you have a ton of money, I don't see much of that getting resolved.

Better environmental decisions?  I think most Germans will say that Germany is already at the top of the 'save-the-Earth' crowd and there's little to be done within Germany.

Better the immigration system?  This is probably the one single area where people in the decade after Merkel leaves....are hoping on some major shift and feeling that the issues are getting resolved.  How?  This is drawn upon a significant amount of speculation for people.  The public thinks too many 'losers' made it into the system, that the chaos is creating too many problems for public safety, and the new folks aren't acting German-enough.  The fact that various opposition political groups have drawn lines and intend to oppose any shift on migration and immigration?  That will be part of this limited solution mandate for the new Chancellor.

The truth is that people now observe Chancellor Merkel as more of a professor Chancellor, than a true leader.  She avoided corruption....took soft-spoken conclusions....dragged the CDU into highly neutral territory (almost convincing people they were a combo system of CDU-SPD combined)....and avoid just about all controversy possible.  In the end, the non-controversial Chancellor kinda reminded people of a older model Mercedes (say a 1970s 300 SEL model) which weathered various weather conditions, good streets and poor country roads, and simply delivered fine service with few breakdowns.

I would speculate a decade or two after Merkel leaves, some historians will miss her because things were so quiet and peaceful within German politics. 

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