Sunday, November 4, 2018

Polling Story

There was a great piece via N-TV news (Germany's commercial news network) this morning on the CDU Party chief business and how the public perceives the figures mentioned.  If you read German, I'd recommend the piece.

So the Emnid organization went and polled regular Germans, and CDU-admitted Germans.....using a base of 1008 German citizens.

Among regular Germans, Friedrich Merz ends up as the favorite of most (38-percent).  The current CDU General Secretary....Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.....gets 27-percent.  And Jens Spahn ends up with 13-percent. 

Among CDU-voters....there's not much splitting Merz and Kramp-Karrenbauer (44 percent for Merz and 39 percent for Kramp-Karrenbauer).  Spahn loses out, with barely 9 percent.

But Emnid wasn't finished with polling....they asked how thrilled folks were to see Merkel leaving the Party Chief job, and nearly 70-percent said they were going to welcome the change.  63 percent said they'd also like to see the CSU head....Horst Seehofer....leave office as well. 

While the public TV news folks suggest a four-person race exists....I think the reality is that it's marginally a three-person race, with Spahn now the outsider.  Merkel's carbon copy.....Kramp-Karrenbauer?  I think she's got a tougher situation because people want some dynamic change, and she can't really offer that. 

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