Choices

Since the announcement of Chancellor Merkel dropping the head of the CDU Party job....the German news media has been busy analyzing the four likely candidates in the running.....which you can figure ONE of the four will become Chancellor in 2021, as Merkel retires.

The four?  Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (noted as AKK) who currently is the general manager or chief of staff of the CDU Party (heavily favored by Merkel).  Health Minister Jens Spahn.  Former parliamentary group leader Friedrich Merz, who has been out of politics for almost a decade.  And finally North Rhine-Westphalia's Premier President (Governor) Armin Laschet.

So, I tend to evaluate the four on five levels. 

1.  Competency.  AKK has served a good bit of time in the Saarland as their Premier President, and has proven herself.  Laschet can claim the same background.  Spahn?  No time as Premier President for any of the states, and this job as Health Minister is really only the second big job within the political spectrum.  Merz had left politics in 2009, and gone into the business world.....as a board guy.  All four probably have the minimum amount of competency, with Spahn at the lesser end of the spectrum.

2.  Carbon copy of Merkel.  Well.....AKK fits perfectly.  Merz and Spahn would likely be at the opposite end of the spectrum and might offer a fresh new prospective on politics.  Laschet probably fits better in the middle.

3.  Hyped-up nature. AKK and Laschet are fairly low-key and I doubt if you could get hyped-up much over their speeches.  Merz, I would describe as a light-weight 'Jack Kemp' type speaker and might raise the crowd a notch or two.  Spahn?  Dynamic speaker, and the most hyped-up of the four.

4.  The immigrate and migrant position.  AKK and Laschet are fairly close to the Merkel 'norm' for the immigration policy.  Spahn has made several speeches noting the need for migrants to integrate and be part of German society.  Merz has made a number of speeches (some going back to the 2000 to 2009 era) which noted that Middle-Eastern types needed to integrate. 

5.  Public appeal.  Most working-class Germans will tell you that the country needs to take a turn and be less Merkel-like.  In that case, AKK and Laschet probably aren't the ones that they would vote for.  Between Merz and Spahn?  The news media has hyped that Merz is 'unclean' because he's been in the speculation market.  Spahn?  He is fairly argumentative and direct when he makes a statement.....so he could easily make some folks hostile. 

So from the CDU, this is the option list.  For the Greens and SPD....they have two years to shake the tree and find their candidates to oppose the CDU pick.