Once you establish a pro-view on immigration or migration in your city or urbanized region (doesn't matter which party runs things)....you have a list of priorities facing the city and the future of that political party.
1. You face a uphill problem of preventing a ghetto from forming. If you have one end of the city or town....which is a magnet for the incoming migrants....it attracts public attention. If crime, assaults, or 'problems' require more policing in that part of the city.....more cops have to be hired, thus triggering more arrests/detentions, and more reports get filed which might get dragged out by the newspapers.
2. Once the guy is delivered on day one.....a clock is ticking away on getting him accumulated or integrated, with the language classes and the German integration class. Then the local Job-Center gets involved and see if they can fit the guy, or get him into some job-training situation. If after three years....this guy and his family are still on welfare....the odds are heavily in favor of a more permanent situation developing....where the guy and the family never leave welfare.
3. Drug-usage escalation. There should be no escalation of drug sales in your town, but if the cops are telling you that escalation is taking place, and that virtually all of the dealers are non-Germans, then it starts to become public knowledge and leads to questions. Even if you are only talking about twenty-five non-German dealers in a city of 100,000 residents....it begs questions and could potentially erode public confidence in the mayor and political players.
4. A virtual competition between the 'losers' and 'winners' in the migration game. It's high odds that of every ten migrants.....at least eight will make an effort and attempt to make a success out of their 'adventure' in life. The other two? That's the group that you will continue have to work on....put pressure upon them to compete, or to force them into a return to their homeland. This competition thing gets to being an item that the public views.
5. Finally, you come to stupid evening drinking or drug binges, where this new guy has gotten himself into an aggressive state of mind....creating a potential assault. Virtually every single mayor in Germany has to think about these events and have a scripted answer ready to go on Monday when the news folks come and ask stupid questions. Maybe it only comes up once or twice a year.....maybe it's once a month.
All of these simply add to the frustration level of politicians because they'd prefer the image of pro-asylum and pro-migration to be a 100-percent feel-good situation. And it's simply not ever going to be that way. So as things add up...your 'tally' really amounts to the way that the public feels every five years, and whether your party gets 'fired' or 'rehired' over their success or lack of success.
Saturday, August 31, 2019
Italy's 'Comedy'
Around ten days ago....Italy's coalition government collapsed.
The Five-Star Movement and the League Party have ended their coalition. It's best to say that they were both on the right more conservative 'lean', with the Five-Star Movement less conservative.
What's going on now? The Five-Star Movement and the Social Democrats (considered left-of-center) are talking on a coalition.
The amusing thing here, if you go back a decade (around 2009)....the whole mechanical apparatus to create the Five-Star Movement, was centered on one central theme....anti-Social Democrat.
So to join up with them now? If you are Italian and over the age of thirty....remembering the 2009 era, and the past decade....you have to be laughing because it makes no sense.
So a collapse of Five-Star Movement in the next year? I'll go and predict that the coalition will occur, but half the voters for the Five-Star crowd will just walk away laughing. The only reason to exist for them....was being anti-Social Democrat....and now they are your partner?
The Five-Star Movement and the League Party have ended their coalition. It's best to say that they were both on the right more conservative 'lean', with the Five-Star Movement less conservative.
What's going on now? The Five-Star Movement and the Social Democrats (considered left-of-center) are talking on a coalition.
The amusing thing here, if you go back a decade (around 2009)....the whole mechanical apparatus to create the Five-Star Movement, was centered on one central theme....anti-Social Democrat.
So to join up with them now? If you are Italian and over the age of thirty....remembering the 2009 era, and the past decade....you have to be laughing because it makes no sense.
So a collapse of Five-Star Movement in the next year? I'll go and predict that the coalition will occur, but half the voters for the Five-Star crowd will just walk away laughing. The only reason to exist for them....was being anti-Social Democrat....and now they are your partner?
Thursday, August 29, 2019
Interview Article
There's a magazine printed in Germany for political culture....called 'Cicero'. It's named after the famous Roman statesman, who passed on around 43 BC. He generally offered advice and reasoning into arguments. For the most part, that's what this magazine does.
I won't say that this is a top ten type reading material, but politicians generally read it and quote off it.
So in the September issue coming up....they did an interview with the Saarland Premier President (Governor of the Saarland). It's a CDU guy....Tobias Hans.
So Hans was asked about the CDU Party and where it lies right now.
He's kinda blunt. He references the 'soul of the party', and suggested that under Merkel....there's been this 'drain on meaning'. As he points out....various debates have occurred over the past decade, and various members of the party have felt left-behind.
At some point in the article....he goes on to talk about 2015/2016 period with the refugee crisis in full bloom, and the lack of decision-making being obvious.
He comes to this comment that I've often written into essays....that a search is often made for great all-solution type immigration answer to be created under the EU umbrella, with months wasted on this search, and it's mostly a failed solution.
In various ways, the CDU is mostly hanging together as one single group because of the success of Merkel, but it's also forged with various groups who see this Merkel success as the only way the party survived.
A turbulent period of change coming up in 2021's election? Yes. A lot will be discussed over the Merkel era, and how anger built up within her own party.....with the general public desiring some massive shift.
I won't say that this is a top ten type reading material, but politicians generally read it and quote off it.
So in the September issue coming up....they did an interview with the Saarland Premier President (Governor of the Saarland). It's a CDU guy....Tobias Hans.
So Hans was asked about the CDU Party and where it lies right now.
He's kinda blunt. He references the 'soul of the party', and suggested that under Merkel....there's been this 'drain on meaning'. As he points out....various debates have occurred over the past decade, and various members of the party have felt left-behind.
At some point in the article....he goes on to talk about 2015/2016 period with the refugee crisis in full bloom, and the lack of decision-making being obvious.
He comes to this comment that I've often written into essays....that a search is often made for great all-solution type immigration answer to be created under the EU umbrella, with months wasted on this search, and it's mostly a failed solution.
In various ways, the CDU is mostly hanging together as one single group because of the success of Merkel, but it's also forged with various groups who see this Merkel success as the only way the party survived.
A turbulent period of change coming up in 2021's election? Yes. A lot will be discussed over the Merkel era, and how anger built up within her own party.....with the general public desiring some massive shift.
Massive Reforestation Plan
Well, the Minister of Agriculture has come out (Klockner, CDU), and said a bold new plan is needed. She says that a several million seedlings are ready in the nursery operations....the government just needs two things. First, money to buy them, and second.....personnel to plant them.
A billion Euro operation? Probably. Would the SPD and CDU come to agree on this, and sponsor the money? I'm guessing they could find 300 million over three years to sponsor something like this.
But then we come to people to plant. The truth is....you've got a million-plus people on Hartz IV (welfare), and you could easily go and employ 25,000 of them on a 30-to-40 hour a week deal, for two years. Pay-scale? If this were me....I'd offer them what they were making on Hartz IV plus 33-percent. As long as you show up 95-percent of the time on schedule, without playing sick-leave much....I'd even offer a 2,000 Euro bonus at the end of the whole 'expedition'.
The odds of the Germans being this smart? I have my doubts. You will probably see this contracted-out to various Romanian and Bulgarian companies, who bring ten-thousand non-Germans to do the job.
A billion Euro operation? Probably. Would the SPD and CDU come to agree on this, and sponsor the money? I'm guessing they could find 300 million over three years to sponsor something like this.
But then we come to people to plant. The truth is....you've got a million-plus people on Hartz IV (welfare), and you could easily go and employ 25,000 of them on a 30-to-40 hour a week deal, for two years. Pay-scale? If this were me....I'd offer them what they were making on Hartz IV plus 33-percent. As long as you show up 95-percent of the time on schedule, without playing sick-leave much....I'd even offer a 2,000 Euro bonus at the end of the whole 'expedition'.
The odds of the Germans being this smart? I have my doubts. You will probably see this contracted-out to various Romanian and Bulgarian companies, who bring ten-thousand non-Germans to do the job.
Electric Car Story
I noticed this short story today from Switzerland, where a car insurance company put out the statistical information on gas-car versus battery-car accident rates.
Here's the strange thing....which ought to make you pause and wonder. Battery-cars have a 40-percent higher rate of car accidents than gas-cars. Yep.....40-percent higher. Reason? It's not that clear at present.
AXA is the company that did this, and it's centered ONLY on Switzerland.
Will this affect rates? OH YES. That's probably not what people expected....to pay 10-to-20 percent higher insurance rates for their new electrical car.
Why? One might go and speculate that the handling is different, or the take-off ratio might be more than a gas-car. Handling on ice or snow different? I doubt it.
But this will drag out a fair amount of talk if it matches up to countries like the Netherlands, France, or Germany.
Here's the strange thing....which ought to make you pause and wonder. Battery-cars have a 40-percent higher rate of car accidents than gas-cars. Yep.....40-percent higher. Reason? It's not that clear at present.
AXA is the company that did this, and it's centered ONLY on Switzerland.
Will this affect rates? OH YES. That's probably not what people expected....to pay 10-to-20 percent higher insurance rates for their new electrical car.
Why? One might go and speculate that the handling is different, or the take-off ratio might be more than a gas-car. Handling on ice or snow different? I doubt it.
But this will drag out a fair amount of talk if it matches up to countries like the Netherlands, France, or Germany.
That Frankfurt Murder
About two months ago, I essayed about a local murder, in the Frankfurt train-station....an eight-year old German kid who'd been pushed on the tracks by a migrant guy from Switzerland.
Well....today, the local doctors have finished their examination of the migrant. Paranoid schizophrenia.
Charges still? Well, the Frankfurt authorities do say that they will still pursue murder charges. I have my doubts that this will occur. Some judge will step in, and ask for a full review. I kinda expect in six months that this will just end up being a guy with serious paranoid schizophrenia being put in a mental facility.
The question left? Did the Swiss doctors handling this guy kinda know the level of paranoid schizophrenia that the migrant guy had? It'll probably be skipped, but it's just a curious part of the story.
Well....today, the local doctors have finished their examination of the migrant. Paranoid schizophrenia.
Charges still? Well, the Frankfurt authorities do say that they will still pursue murder charges. I have my doubts that this will occur. Some judge will step in, and ask for a full review. I kinda expect in six months that this will just end up being a guy with serious paranoid schizophrenia being put in a mental facility.
The question left? Did the Swiss doctors handling this guy kinda know the level of paranoid schizophrenia that the migrant guy had? It'll probably be skipped, but it's just a curious part of the story.
Lost Gun Story
This is a page two type story in Germany this morning, via N-TV (commercial news network) but it will hype up some public interest.
The FDP Party went out and requested a 'answer' via the federal government on lost police weapons. It's an odd question to ask.
Well....the cops had to admit....eleven pistols have been lost in the past year.
Where did the weapons end up? Unknown. None have been recovered.
A national problem? No. I doubt if you'd even go and rank it in the top thousand problems facing Germany today. But it begs some questions over accountability and if the weapons ever turn up in a crime....it'll be a big deal.
The FDP Party went out and requested a 'answer' via the federal government on lost police weapons. It's an odd question to ask.
Well....the cops had to admit....eleven pistols have been lost in the past year.
Where did the weapons end up? Unknown. None have been recovered.
A national problem? No. I doubt if you'd even go and rank it in the top thousand problems facing Germany today. But it begs some questions over accountability and if the weapons ever turn up in a crime....it'll be a big deal.
Daylight-Savings-Time Topic
Around a year ago, the EU got all hyped-up....that they could finally do something that the general public demanded (probably in the 95-percent range)....get rid of daylight-savings time.
Yep. This was going to be the fine moment of the EU.
Well....so far, it's not accomplished, and there is some hint that the EU may not be capable of ridding Europe of DST.
First, it came out as a discussion item....should you stay permanently on summer-time or winter-time. Some countries want summer-time as the permanent fixture. Some folks have suggested winter-time.
Then we came to the problem that various countries were leading toward a patchwork situation....which the EU wanted to avoid at all cost.
Prioritization on this now? Well, that's the other issue appearing. It's not exactly a top-ten problem. Some political folks might even go and suggest it's way down there in number fifty problem area.
In Germany alone? As each shift of time comes up....it's readily apparent that roughly 95-to-99 percent of Germans are fed-up with DST, and want it dumped. It's hard to find anyone....even an intellectual....that supports it. You would think that farmers might find some reason to support it, but generally....that's not true.
The odds that in five years....it still exists, and the EU gives up the change idea? It's looking more and more likely.
Yep. This was going to be the fine moment of the EU.
Well....so far, it's not accomplished, and there is some hint that the EU may not be capable of ridding Europe of DST.
First, it came out as a discussion item....should you stay permanently on summer-time or winter-time. Some countries want summer-time as the permanent fixture. Some folks have suggested winter-time.
Then we came to the problem that various countries were leading toward a patchwork situation....which the EU wanted to avoid at all cost.
Prioritization on this now? Well, that's the other issue appearing. It's not exactly a top-ten problem. Some political folks might even go and suggest it's way down there in number fifty problem area.
In Germany alone? As each shift of time comes up....it's readily apparent that roughly 95-to-99 percent of Germans are fed-up with DST, and want it dumped. It's hard to find anyone....even an intellectual....that supports it. You would think that farmers might find some reason to support it, but generally....that's not true.
The odds that in five years....it still exists, and the EU gives up the change idea? It's looking more and more likely.
Military Boot Story
I sat last night and watched a 30-second news item from ARD (Channel One) here in Germany. It's a curious piece.
Around 2016, the German military (the Bundeswehr) had a committee come up and agree that the combat boot that is issued out to the Army....wasn't meeting the needs of the troops. So they came to new technology, some tests, and rationalized that there ought to be a 'heavy' boot, and a 'light' boot. It's not really explained how they differ, but I would assume one is for summer periods, and the other for harsh winter climates.
These boots were to be manufactured and issued out by now.
Well....they are behind. In fact, the Army is admitting it might be 2021 before everyone gets one boot of each.
Why not just buy boots off the shelf? That's not really explained. They are also careful not to suggest where they are manufactured....so it might not be in Germany.
For the first eight years of my Air Force period.....I had these 'issue' boots (all-leather, cheaply made, and replaced about every 18-to-24 months). At some point, they authorized 'jungle-boots', and I just went out on my own and bought a pair.
I will admit, they were the most relaxed boot that I've ever owned. Yes, it dd cost in the $45 range and you were really lucky if you got 18 months of use out of it.
Toward year twenty of my time, I was still buying my own boots, and had reached the level where I paid $95 for the last pair. The Germans aren't talking about the cost factor for their two boots, but I'd take a guess that combined....they probably run over 200 Euro.
Around 2016, the German military (the Bundeswehr) had a committee come up and agree that the combat boot that is issued out to the Army....wasn't meeting the needs of the troops. So they came to new technology, some tests, and rationalized that there ought to be a 'heavy' boot, and a 'light' boot. It's not really explained how they differ, but I would assume one is for summer periods, and the other for harsh winter climates.
These boots were to be manufactured and issued out by now.
Well....they are behind. In fact, the Army is admitting it might be 2021 before everyone gets one boot of each.
Why not just buy boots off the shelf? That's not really explained. They are also careful not to suggest where they are manufactured....so it might not be in Germany.
For the first eight years of my Air Force period.....I had these 'issue' boots (all-leather, cheaply made, and replaced about every 18-to-24 months). At some point, they authorized 'jungle-boots', and I just went out on my own and bought a pair.
I will admit, they were the most relaxed boot that I've ever owned. Yes, it dd cost in the $45 range and you were really lucky if you got 18 months of use out of it.
Toward year twenty of my time, I was still buying my own boots, and had reached the level where I paid $95 for the last pair. The Germans aren't talking about the cost factor for their two boots, but I'd take a guess that combined....they probably run over 200 Euro.
Wednesday, August 28, 2019
Railway Chatter
Across Germany today....there are roughly 5,600 railway stations. It's an interesting statistic. Out of that....almost 90-percent of them are today 'unmanned'.
'Unmanned' means that there is a ticket-machine or two....some schedule-posters, and that's it. Within two miles of my house, there are two stations. One has been 'unmanned' for forty-odd years....maybe even going back to the 1920s. The other was a significant little station all the way up to the 1970s. They had a ticket office....a station manager.....and even a pub on the end of the building. In the 1980s, ticket-machines began to arrive and by the early 1990s.....the station manger job went away. Today, it's just a couple of platforms, two ticket-machines, and schedule-posters.
To get actual people or Bahn employees today? You have to be a significant station....with a minimum of hundred trains per day passing through. A town with just 10,000 residents? It probably qualify for actual railway employees.
I noticed today....via the early morning news....the Linke Party has been on the aggressive end, and suggesting that more of the stations need actual real people there. They want to force the Bahn into putting in more people. Added cost? More than likely.
Necessary? Well....this brings up an interesting image. On my Samsung phone, I have an app with the full schedule of local trains. I also have an app for researching railway schedules with cost for trips....for all of Germany. Buying a ticket with my discount (50-percent off) card? Yep, with another app, I can buy the ticket and just walk up to the station....with the App telling me the platform and time. Issues? The app will tell me if the train is going to be late, or cancelled.
Do we really need actual people at the stations?
Part of this story, as the Linke Party tells it.....is that there needs to be more security people around stations. True or not? Here's the funny thing. Most of these 90-percent stations without Bahn employees....are in rural locations where there just isn't any real trouble (even at 10 PM). The trouble-spots? Well....Frankfurt, Koln, Hamburg, Duisburg, etc. Yeah, the stations with Bahn folks, cameras, German police walking the perimeter, and lots of lighting.
Maybe it the political folks had spoken to urbanization and no-go spots.....this chatter would be interesting, and productive. But they are suggesting to go and hire up several thousand folks.....to patrol places where there's no trouble. A total waste of funding and effort.
'Unmanned' means that there is a ticket-machine or two....some schedule-posters, and that's it. Within two miles of my house, there are two stations. One has been 'unmanned' for forty-odd years....maybe even going back to the 1920s. The other was a significant little station all the way up to the 1970s. They had a ticket office....a station manager.....and even a pub on the end of the building. In the 1980s, ticket-machines began to arrive and by the early 1990s.....the station manger job went away. Today, it's just a couple of platforms, two ticket-machines, and schedule-posters.
To get actual people or Bahn employees today? You have to be a significant station....with a minimum of hundred trains per day passing through. A town with just 10,000 residents? It probably qualify for actual railway employees.
I noticed today....via the early morning news....the Linke Party has been on the aggressive end, and suggesting that more of the stations need actual real people there. They want to force the Bahn into putting in more people. Added cost? More than likely.
Necessary? Well....this brings up an interesting image. On my Samsung phone, I have an app with the full schedule of local trains. I also have an app for researching railway schedules with cost for trips....for all of Germany. Buying a ticket with my discount (50-percent off) card? Yep, with another app, I can buy the ticket and just walk up to the station....with the App telling me the platform and time. Issues? The app will tell me if the train is going to be late, or cancelled.
Do we really need actual people at the stations?
Part of this story, as the Linke Party tells it.....is that there needs to be more security people around stations. True or not? Here's the funny thing. Most of these 90-percent stations without Bahn employees....are in rural locations where there just isn't any real trouble (even at 10 PM). The trouble-spots? Well....Frankfurt, Koln, Hamburg, Duisburg, etc. Yeah, the stations with Bahn folks, cameras, German police walking the perimeter, and lots of lighting.
Maybe it the political folks had spoken to urbanization and no-go spots.....this chatter would be interesting, and productive. But they are suggesting to go and hire up several thousand folks.....to patrol places where there's no trouble. A total waste of funding and effort.
Tuesday, August 27, 2019
Who is Hans-Georg Maaßen?
Who is the German Hans-Georg Maaßen, and why does he matter right now?
HGM was a German lawyer who rose up the ranks to eventually become the German in charge (the President) of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. In simple terms, he was the guy who was supposed in charge of domestic intelligence....always watching over threats to the general public, the Constitution, etc.
In 2012, he assumed the office and probably would have been there for a decade before retiring.
But then in 2018....demonstrations were held in Chemnitz, Germany and various political parties went at the right-wing type demonstrations.....saying that the national intelligence arm needed to go and probe various individuals. In their view, all options were filled-in and legally, it was correct to probe private German citizens.
HGM, after a couple of weeks, came back to say that no evidence existed to probe private German citizens. This was not a conspiracy type situation.
In simple terms.....sh** hit the fan. The various political figures of the Green Party, the SPD, and the Linke Party disagreed with this entirely. Even some individuals with the CDU took a lesser view of HGM and the way he said this.
If he'd said fine, and just picked two or three guys to probe? Well....it would have been accepted, and some fake charges drummed up, with a judge signing off on wire-taps and phone bugs. But he simply didn't find a case for probing people.
Around mid-September of 2018, the resolution came up via the Bundestag to fire HGM. Instead, the Minister of the Interior took another move.....moving HGM to another job. That would have probably saved all the problems with HGM.....except to meet the qualifications of the new job.....he had to be promoted up another step.
Yep.....that came out and set the opposition folks on 'fire'.
On 5 November 2018, the Ministry let HGM 'go'.....officially retired. Yes, he's paid some type of retirement deal from the government.
So what does a 56-year old former government guy with a intelligence background do? He talks a lot.....about migration, failed immigration policy, and asylum issues.
Here's the thing....HGM has laid out the problems with the political parties, their use of threatening 'populism' to advance their public position, the immigration woes left by Chancellor Merkel, the left-versus-right gaming going on, and the naive nature of the public in understanding the entire landscape.
He's a paying member of the CDU (Merkel's party) and recently....some of those folks think that he needs to part ways and leave the party. Why? Well....there's a suggestion or two that maybe a quarter to a third of the party membership believes heavily in HGM's commentary. It kinda slams the Merkel policy and accomplishments of the past decade.
At some point, Chancellor Merkel will exit (maybe sooner than fall of 2021's national election).....and some fair amount of discussion will occur over the direction in the future. HGM might have comments which resonate with a majority of CDU 'members' (the ones who pay to be a member), and there might be some influence left on HGM's part about populism, immigration, and things should be developed.
HGM is not a top ten character or even regarded as a top one-hundred person of influence with the German news media....but he might be part of the CDU's direction after Merkel leaves.
Footnote: So after HGM left his old job, and the new guy arrived.....did he authorize various Germans in the Chemnitz area to be secretly watched? Unknown. My guess is that he did pick a couple of folks....just to say he's doing something. In twenty years.....if private citizens were illegally 'watched'....will there be a compensation package and apology drafted? Yes, more then likely. In a way, it's comical the way that these episodes work, but there's always a woeful 'sorry' coming at the tail-end of a mess like this.
HGM was a German lawyer who rose up the ranks to eventually become the German in charge (the President) of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. In simple terms, he was the guy who was supposed in charge of domestic intelligence....always watching over threats to the general public, the Constitution, etc.
In 2012, he assumed the office and probably would have been there for a decade before retiring.
But then in 2018....demonstrations were held in Chemnitz, Germany and various political parties went at the right-wing type demonstrations.....saying that the national intelligence arm needed to go and probe various individuals. In their view, all options were filled-in and legally, it was correct to probe private German citizens.
HGM, after a couple of weeks, came back to say that no evidence existed to probe private German citizens. This was not a conspiracy type situation.
In simple terms.....sh** hit the fan. The various political figures of the Green Party, the SPD, and the Linke Party disagreed with this entirely. Even some individuals with the CDU took a lesser view of HGM and the way he said this.
If he'd said fine, and just picked two or three guys to probe? Well....it would have been accepted, and some fake charges drummed up, with a judge signing off on wire-taps and phone bugs. But he simply didn't find a case for probing people.
Around mid-September of 2018, the resolution came up via the Bundestag to fire HGM. Instead, the Minister of the Interior took another move.....moving HGM to another job. That would have probably saved all the problems with HGM.....except to meet the qualifications of the new job.....he had to be promoted up another step.
Yep.....that came out and set the opposition folks on 'fire'.
On 5 November 2018, the Ministry let HGM 'go'.....officially retired. Yes, he's paid some type of retirement deal from the government.
So what does a 56-year old former government guy with a intelligence background do? He talks a lot.....about migration, failed immigration policy, and asylum issues.
Here's the thing....HGM has laid out the problems with the political parties, their use of threatening 'populism' to advance their public position, the immigration woes left by Chancellor Merkel, the left-versus-right gaming going on, and the naive nature of the public in understanding the entire landscape.
He's a paying member of the CDU (Merkel's party) and recently....some of those folks think that he needs to part ways and leave the party. Why? Well....there's a suggestion or two that maybe a quarter to a third of the party membership believes heavily in HGM's commentary. It kinda slams the Merkel policy and accomplishments of the past decade.
At some point, Chancellor Merkel will exit (maybe sooner than fall of 2021's national election).....and some fair amount of discussion will occur over the direction in the future. HGM might have comments which resonate with a majority of CDU 'members' (the ones who pay to be a member), and there might be some influence left on HGM's part about populism, immigration, and things should be developed.
HGM is not a top ten character or even regarded as a top one-hundred person of influence with the German news media....but he might be part of the CDU's direction after Merkel leaves.
Footnote: So after HGM left his old job, and the new guy arrived.....did he authorize various Germans in the Chemnitz area to be secretly watched? Unknown. My guess is that he did pick a couple of folks....just to say he's doing something. In twenty years.....if private citizens were illegally 'watched'....will there be a compensation package and apology drafted? Yes, more then likely. In a way, it's comical the way that these episodes work, but there's always a woeful 'sorry' coming at the tail-end of a mess like this.
Car Story
So, a couple of nights ago, here in the region I live....in Kronberg (15 km NE of Wiesbaden)....an area known for fairly wealthy folks who work in Frankfurt.....we had this 'attack' on a car dealership.
A group of thugs....cops suggest maybe 10....came in and damaged 40 Aston Martins, Jaguars, and Land Rovers. Cost of the damage? It's going up into the 500,000 Euro range. Some even say that the cars can't be repaired, and they will all be totaled-out (so more than a million Euro).
The group of gentlemen?
Cops say that a group has claimed responsibility....calling itself "Stones in the Gears".
Their view? They desire to destroy luxury cars....as part of their action on climate control and global warming.
This kinda worries the cops because the big Frankfurt International Motor Show (IAA) is scheduled in roughly 3 weeks (12 to 22 Sep).
There's at least one other group talking of a demonstration on the IAA Show, and this might require more security than you'd normally expect.
Anti-capitalists? Well.....it kinda looks that way. Will the cops label them as left-wing? I doubt it.
Some folks have commented that things around Germany look a bit like 1968 in Frankfurt.....when demonstrations and riots were common, with various themes being played out.
A group of thugs....cops suggest maybe 10....came in and damaged 40 Aston Martins, Jaguars, and Land Rovers. Cost of the damage? It's going up into the 500,000 Euro range. Some even say that the cars can't be repaired, and they will all be totaled-out (so more than a million Euro).
The group of gentlemen?
Cops say that a group has claimed responsibility....calling itself "Stones in the Gears".
Their view? They desire to destroy luxury cars....as part of their action on climate control and global warming.
This kinda worries the cops because the big Frankfurt International Motor Show (IAA) is scheduled in roughly 3 weeks (12 to 22 Sep).
There's at least one other group talking of a demonstration on the IAA Show, and this might require more security than you'd normally expect.
Anti-capitalists? Well.....it kinda looks that way. Will the cops label them as left-wing? I doubt it.
Some folks have commented that things around Germany look a bit like 1968 in Frankfurt.....when demonstrations and riots were common, with various themes being played out.
The Wall Business
In roughly seventy days.....it'll be the 30th anniversary of the Berlin Wall falling, and a lot of political folks will be hyped up and talking about the unification and the 'wonderful' nature of this glorious moment.
So, after 30 years, is Germany unified? Well....the maps say so. Roads and autobahns are comparable in both regions. The police all wear the same uniforms and are pursuing the enforcement of one unified law system. The schools tend to operate in a unified nature. On the surface, it looks unified.
Employment opportunities? The old DDR-area is still mostly a marginal region for real jobs.
The DAX lists 30 German companies and is the marker for success in Germany. NONE of the thirty companies exist in the eastern region (old DDR). That fact, 30 years later, stands out.
Most Germans will say that the region is still not comparable to western Germany. That's said because of the landscape, condition of buildings, and urbanization. From three years ago, I made a trip to Dresden and found a region about 10 km outside of town....that looked remarkably like the 1950s.
Was it wrong to unify? No. But anyone with big expectations in 1989....would say that things haven't advanced like they thought it would
Politically speaking? Some Germans would suggest that there is a strong right-wing element in old DDR. I might go out and suggest that around a quarter of the population in old DDR has problems with immigration, and doesn't see the normal political parties as being motivated to understand them.
People still be attracted to the DDR-style of government? That's another funny thing. If you are over the age of fifty and remember the 'good-ole-days'....some (probably a quarter of the population) would say that some strong benefits existed, and they wouldn't mind a return to that style of government.
So this celebration period? Simply settle back and observe the chatter and nod. The unification, for the most part.....hasn't yet finished. And it might not end up looking like people expected in 1989.
So, after 30 years, is Germany unified? Well....the maps say so. Roads and autobahns are comparable in both regions. The police all wear the same uniforms and are pursuing the enforcement of one unified law system. The schools tend to operate in a unified nature. On the surface, it looks unified.
Employment opportunities? The old DDR-area is still mostly a marginal region for real jobs.
The DAX lists 30 German companies and is the marker for success in Germany. NONE of the thirty companies exist in the eastern region (old DDR). That fact, 30 years later, stands out.
Most Germans will say that the region is still not comparable to western Germany. That's said because of the landscape, condition of buildings, and urbanization. From three years ago, I made a trip to Dresden and found a region about 10 km outside of town....that looked remarkably like the 1950s.
Was it wrong to unify? No. But anyone with big expectations in 1989....would say that things haven't advanced like they thought it would
Politically speaking? Some Germans would suggest that there is a strong right-wing element in old DDR. I might go out and suggest that around a quarter of the population in old DDR has problems with immigration, and doesn't see the normal political parties as being motivated to understand them.
People still be attracted to the DDR-style of government? That's another funny thing. If you are over the age of fifty and remember the 'good-ole-days'....some (probably a quarter of the population) would say that some strong benefits existed, and they wouldn't mind a return to that style of government.
So this celebration period? Simply settle back and observe the chatter and nod. The unification, for the most part.....hasn't yet finished. And it might not end up looking like people expected in 1989.
Rent Mess?
There's this rental pricing game going on in Berlin (just within the city government itself, run by the SPD, Linke Party and Greens)....shift apartment rental prices to a standard.
Depending on the age, and condition....the standard rent would be set between 3.42 Euro per square meter....up to 7.97 Euro. At 4 Euro, and 70 square meters (2-bedroom size)....you'd only be paying 280 Euro for rent. At the 7.97 Euro....it'd be roughly 560 Euro. You could be talking about rent prices dropping by 50-percent in some cases.
Reaction in the city? The CDU and FDP{ folks say that if it's signed off and forced....it's unconstitutional.
The problem existing in Berlin, and most of the major urbanized 'zones' in Germany is that low-cost apartment construction has come to a virtual end. Unless you are the speculator and the city is leading you to a deal for property, and part of this is to force you to build on a 2nd property an affordable housing project.....then there's little interest. The profit for renting low and affordable housing simply doesn't exist.
Housing projects on renovation? That's another part of the story. If you have a property built in the 1970s and it's time for some real renovation....when the job is done, you can figure that the rent is going to double, or they might just convert it over to a condo situation that you can't afford either.
If the Berlin city policy is allowed to stand? Those companies holding ownership over the affected properties will consume significant 'losses' and start dumping this over to marginalized companies with zero interest in maintaining or fixing issues. So the fix simply goes to create new problems in the next decade? Yes.
All of this leads back to the 1980s and 1990s when various German city governments quietly gave up ownership of housing projects (social-housing) and sold the units for profit to companies to 'manage'. The cities took the unit profits and plowed them into various other programs to 'please' voters. It's rarely laid out in detail, and if Germans began to realize that they were 'bought-off' two or three decades ago, to lay out this current rental cost chaos.....they'd go ballistic.
Depending on the age, and condition....the standard rent would be set between 3.42 Euro per square meter....up to 7.97 Euro. At 4 Euro, and 70 square meters (2-bedroom size)....you'd only be paying 280 Euro for rent. At the 7.97 Euro....it'd be roughly 560 Euro. You could be talking about rent prices dropping by 50-percent in some cases.
Reaction in the city? The CDU and FDP{ folks say that if it's signed off and forced....it's unconstitutional.
The problem existing in Berlin, and most of the major urbanized 'zones' in Germany is that low-cost apartment construction has come to a virtual end. Unless you are the speculator and the city is leading you to a deal for property, and part of this is to force you to build on a 2nd property an affordable housing project.....then there's little interest. The profit for renting low and affordable housing simply doesn't exist.
Housing projects on renovation? That's another part of the story. If you have a property built in the 1970s and it's time for some real renovation....when the job is done, you can figure that the rent is going to double, or they might just convert it over to a condo situation that you can't afford either.
If the Berlin city policy is allowed to stand? Those companies holding ownership over the affected properties will consume significant 'losses' and start dumping this over to marginalized companies with zero interest in maintaining or fixing issues. So the fix simply goes to create new problems in the next decade? Yes.
All of this leads back to the 1980s and 1990s when various German city governments quietly gave up ownership of housing projects (social-housing) and sold the units for profit to companies to 'manage'. The cities took the unit profits and plowed them into various other programs to 'please' voters. It's rarely laid out in detail, and if Germans began to realize that they were 'bought-off' two or three decades ago, to lay out this current rental cost chaos.....they'd go ballistic.
Monday, August 26, 2019
Are Germans Drinking Less Beer?
It's an odd topic, and likely to get a group of Germans (especially in a pub) into a discussion.
The answer? Back in the early 70s....the national average for West Germany, was 140 liters per adult (more or less). The statistic is thrown around and various groups have differing numbers, but they tend to average out at 140 liters (that 40 gallons for Americans)....per year.
Today, the amount is said to be in the 100-liter range (26.5 gallons).
So, what's the story?
When I arrived in 1978 to the Frankfurt region....it's safe to say that after work....most working-class Germans sat down and had a minimum of half-liter stein, after work....each and every day. For the intellectual crowd and managers....the habit wasn't that apparent. Adding to the working-class guy's habit....at least one shot of some cognac, or cheap alcohol. Then after that, they drove home. Yes, some drank more, and were probably not in great shape to be driving.
As you looked around in the 1980s and 1990s.....three things began to happen.
First, cops were pulling guys over more often. The threat of losing a license was a bigger deal than it was in the 1970s.
Second, the working-class guys began to buy their beer and store it in the basement.....drinking it on the patio or balcony. This meant pubs and bisto-operations suffered profit-cuts. If you look around today.....it's probably one-third of the pubs still in existence.
Third, guys drifted around to favorite beers, which a fair number of pubs weren't going to offer. A good example is the fact that a lot of Germans hate Bitburger, Astra, and Kaiser Pilsner. A lot of pubs serve these brands (maybe for cost purposes), and guys just avoid places like this.
The adaption to cocktails? To some degree, this has caught on.
Plus you have to bring up health aspects, and consumption of beer was lessened to some degree.
Will the trend continue? This is an odd topic to bring up as well. I suspect as you get to 2030....we might be down to 85 liters of beer per year.
Less beer at soccer games? Well....this has been brought up on occasion that a fair number of stadiums now will cut off beer sales at the half-time event. Drunk fans, as they've found out.....are more likely or prone toward violence after the game ends.
A bad thing for the lesser amount? No, not necessarily. It simply tells the story of society evolving and changing.
The answer? Back in the early 70s....the national average for West Germany, was 140 liters per adult (more or less). The statistic is thrown around and various groups have differing numbers, but they tend to average out at 140 liters (that 40 gallons for Americans)....per year.
Today, the amount is said to be in the 100-liter range (26.5 gallons).
So, what's the story?
When I arrived in 1978 to the Frankfurt region....it's safe to say that after work....most working-class Germans sat down and had a minimum of half-liter stein, after work....each and every day. For the intellectual crowd and managers....the habit wasn't that apparent. Adding to the working-class guy's habit....at least one shot of some cognac, or cheap alcohol. Then after that, they drove home. Yes, some drank more, and were probably not in great shape to be driving.
As you looked around in the 1980s and 1990s.....three things began to happen.
First, cops were pulling guys over more often. The threat of losing a license was a bigger deal than it was in the 1970s.
Second, the working-class guys began to buy their beer and store it in the basement.....drinking it on the patio or balcony. This meant pubs and bisto-operations suffered profit-cuts. If you look around today.....it's probably one-third of the pubs still in existence.
Third, guys drifted around to favorite beers, which a fair number of pubs weren't going to offer. A good example is the fact that a lot of Germans hate Bitburger, Astra, and Kaiser Pilsner. A lot of pubs serve these brands (maybe for cost purposes), and guys just avoid places like this.
The adaption to cocktails? To some degree, this has caught on.
Plus you have to bring up health aspects, and consumption of beer was lessened to some degree.
Will the trend continue? This is an odd topic to bring up as well. I suspect as you get to 2030....we might be down to 85 liters of beer per year.
Less beer at soccer games? Well....this has been brought up on occasion that a fair number of stadiums now will cut off beer sales at the half-time event. Drunk fans, as they've found out.....are more likely or prone toward violence after the game ends.
A bad thing for the lesser amount? No, not necessarily. It simply tells the story of society evolving and changing.
A Berlin Execution Shooting?
Well....this story gets to an interesting twist (or two), so settle back.
On the north side of the Spree River in Berlin....about a mile NW of Checkpoint Charlie....is this park referred to as the 'Kleiner Tiergarten' (the little animal garden). My description would be 70 meters by 250 meters. It's mostly a park for people to walk through....observe nature....and a kid's playground on the far east side. No, there's no drug trafficking or criminal element to the park....it's just a plain simple German park, with trees, grass, and old people walking their dogs.
There's a church or two on the far eastern end, and a McFit on the southside of the park. On the far west side, between the park, and the Otto Park....lies the Evangelische Kirche (another church). Peaceful surroundings for the most part.
So on Friday of last week....around noon....some guy was walking through the park. He's not a German.....he's from Georgia (the nation, not the state).
Some guy rides up on a bike.....passes the guy....stops, and then fires two rounds into the guy's head. Locals who did see the shooting, just commented later to the cops that it just looked an awful lot like an execution situation. Course, most Germans would get that impression by watching TV movies.
The shooter (the bicyclist)? He rides off.
Witnesses call the cops, and the cops search for this guy. It's a 150 meter ride south....to the Spree River, and there....the shooter disposes of his gun and bicycle....into the river. Cops apparently recover both.
An hour or two passes, and oddly enough....German cops now have the suspect. A Russian guy (49 years old). He's in detention, and it doesn't appear that he's saying much. Well....he's Russian but there's some minor details about this guy.
Contract killing? Well....some have suggested this.
An Islamic connection? Well....that's the odd thing to this story.
The dead guy apparently was a Russian veteran from the 2nd Chechen War (ending in 2009, after a decade). So he ends up in Georgia? Yes, serving in some kind of anti-terror capacity (no one says much of what that means).
So the shooter? Curiously, he was at some point in the past decade on a terror-watch-list. Jihadist? A Russian Jihadist? He got removed because folks thought he was 'safe'. I should note, this part of the story comes from German public TV (WDR), and they had some insider within the police (I'm guessing here) who said that part of the story.
So this was a pay-back situation from the Chechen War, from a decade ago? Maybe.
The amusing angle to this....this shooter had been an asylum seeker while here in Germany....saying it was too dangerous to go back to Georgia.
The dead guy? Well....the more you look at this.....he probably had killed a few Muslims along the way in the Chechen War, and some folks remembered his situation.
But all of this begs the question....why was the dead guy....the Georgia anti-terror guy...in Berlin? What business brought him there? No one says much over that detail. How did the shooter know the guy was going to be in the park....at that time? If you ask me....this was arranged by some 3rd party.
The Berlin authorities? Well....they have to clean this mess up now. Charges on the shooter? Probably murder charges, unless he establishes that he's mentally insane or such.
On the north side of the Spree River in Berlin....about a mile NW of Checkpoint Charlie....is this park referred to as the 'Kleiner Tiergarten' (the little animal garden). My description would be 70 meters by 250 meters. It's mostly a park for people to walk through....observe nature....and a kid's playground on the far east side. No, there's no drug trafficking or criminal element to the park....it's just a plain simple German park, with trees, grass, and old people walking their dogs.
There's a church or two on the far eastern end, and a McFit on the southside of the park. On the far west side, between the park, and the Otto Park....lies the Evangelische Kirche (another church). Peaceful surroundings for the most part.
So on Friday of last week....around noon....some guy was walking through the park. He's not a German.....he's from Georgia (the nation, not the state).
Some guy rides up on a bike.....passes the guy....stops, and then fires two rounds into the guy's head. Locals who did see the shooting, just commented later to the cops that it just looked an awful lot like an execution situation. Course, most Germans would get that impression by watching TV movies.
The shooter (the bicyclist)? He rides off.
Witnesses call the cops, and the cops search for this guy. It's a 150 meter ride south....to the Spree River, and there....the shooter disposes of his gun and bicycle....into the river. Cops apparently recover both.
An hour or two passes, and oddly enough....German cops now have the suspect. A Russian guy (49 years old). He's in detention, and it doesn't appear that he's saying much. Well....he's Russian but there's some minor details about this guy.
Contract killing? Well....some have suggested this.
An Islamic connection? Well....that's the odd thing to this story.
The dead guy apparently was a Russian veteran from the 2nd Chechen War (ending in 2009, after a decade). So he ends up in Georgia? Yes, serving in some kind of anti-terror capacity (no one says much of what that means).
So the shooter? Curiously, he was at some point in the past decade on a terror-watch-list. Jihadist? A Russian Jihadist? He got removed because folks thought he was 'safe'. I should note, this part of the story comes from German public TV (WDR), and they had some insider within the police (I'm guessing here) who said that part of the story.
So this was a pay-back situation from the Chechen War, from a decade ago? Maybe.
The amusing angle to this....this shooter had been an asylum seeker while here in Germany....saying it was too dangerous to go back to Georgia.
The dead guy? Well....the more you look at this.....he probably had killed a few Muslims along the way in the Chechen War, and some folks remembered his situation.
But all of this begs the question....why was the dead guy....the Georgia anti-terror guy...in Berlin? What business brought him there? No one says much over that detail. How did the shooter know the guy was going to be in the park....at that time? If you ask me....this was arranged by some 3rd party.
The Berlin authorities? Well....they have to clean this mess up now. Charges on the shooter? Probably murder charges, unless he establishes that he's mentally insane or such.
Sunday, August 25, 2019
Little Drug Brawl Story
Up in Koln, Germany.....about five minutes walking north of the train station is the park area referred to as Ebertplatz. It's mostly a city park area, with a small lake.....with various uses.....to include an area where homeless folks sleep/mingle....and drug dealers operate without much worry over the cops. If you want drugs of any type, this is the place to 'shop'.
It's easy to hop off the subway or tram system....walk into the park and buy your 'stuff'.
So this morning (Sunday)....as the sun rose.....there was this fight to occur (cops used the word 'mass brawl').
What the cops say.....roughly ten to fifteen black Africans (note the term was used, and they definitely didn't use the term 'south-eastern' (typically a cop term to mean Syrian, Iraqi or Afghan).....got into some kind of disagreement.
End-result? One guy laying there....dead.
So far, ten of the associates have been arrested or detained.
Drug war? Probably. If you go and look around several of the larger German cities (Hamburg, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Berlin, etc).....drug zones are common now, and cops make their presence noted but it has no real effect on sales.
In this dead guy's case? There's probably too many dealers in the area, and competition is getting fierce. For the mayor and local politicians? This will bring up the safety aspects of this area of town, and the amount of drugs which flow through mid-town Koln.
Why black African thing? Well....a number of the migrants who made it into Italy via the smuggling route, or the fake-rescue business.....quietly make their way up into Germany. No visa, no work-permit, and no real job experience.....they are more or less left to the job which requires no real background....selling drugs. If they did get arrested? No problem...it'd take months for the prosecutor or authorities to arrange detention or sending them back home.
It's easy to hop off the subway or tram system....walk into the park and buy your 'stuff'.
So this morning (Sunday)....as the sun rose.....there was this fight to occur (cops used the word 'mass brawl').
What the cops say.....roughly ten to fifteen black Africans (note the term was used, and they definitely didn't use the term 'south-eastern' (typically a cop term to mean Syrian, Iraqi or Afghan).....got into some kind of disagreement.
End-result? One guy laying there....dead.
So far, ten of the associates have been arrested or detained.
Drug war? Probably. If you go and look around several of the larger German cities (Hamburg, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Berlin, etc).....drug zones are common now, and cops make their presence noted but it has no real effect on sales.
In this dead guy's case? There's probably too many dealers in the area, and competition is getting fierce. For the mayor and local politicians? This will bring up the safety aspects of this area of town, and the amount of drugs which flow through mid-town Koln.
Why black African thing? Well....a number of the migrants who made it into Italy via the smuggling route, or the fake-rescue business.....quietly make their way up into Germany. No visa, no work-permit, and no real job experience.....they are more or less left to the job which requires no real background....selling drugs. If they did get arrested? No problem...it'd take months for the prosecutor or authorities to arrange detention or sending them back home.
SPD: German Politics at a Crossing
Next weekend will be two German state elections, and the one detail which stands out already....a dismal expectation exists for the SPD Party (the left-of-center group). As an American, the best description I would use for the SPD...is that they are similar in nature to the US Democratic Party.
Most working-class Germans would say that reputation, status, and 'promises-kept'....related to the SPD....have soured over the past decade. Reasons? As an outsider, I would offer these five observations:
1. Chancellor Merkel did everything possible to push her own CDU Party to the center of the spectrum. It would be correct to say that the CDU today....resembles some Frankenstein-creation that is half-CDU and half-SPD. Even some of the conservative-type voters would laugh and say their right-of-center party no longer exists today.
2. When you go and drag up immigration, asylum and migration....the SPD took the open-door view and were pro-immigration and pro-integration. It was probably a positive trend for them all the way up to spring of 2017, but that silly New Year's Eve episode in Koln changed the prospective of a lot of Germans, and the Party was stuck with a brand-name, and public view that something was wrong. When the public stance shifted.....the SPD folks were handcuffed and unable to move on or repair their message.
3. Pro-working-class party? That was a central theme of the SPD in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. That brand hasn't really existed at that level for the past two decades. It was a strategy shift that saw more popular and trendy positions pushed, and the plain working-class guy was left by the side of the road.
4. Lack of a brand-guy to lead the party? Over the past twenty years, there's been probably a dozen individuals come and go. Each came with the 'look' and the used-car salesman 'attire'. Each stumbled along and marginally lifted the party.
5. Finally, the over-the-edge dynamics of politics being 'hot' and news journalists selling the latest emergency of the day? While it's a major problem in the US.....that same trend has been brewing here in Germany. It's safe to say that some Germans have pushed back and don't get thrilled over continual political bickering or public forum discussions.
So where does this all lead? I would suggest that the 2021 national election will be a dismal situation, with the SPD lucky to get 16-to-18 percent of the national vote. A big enough failure to trigger yet another reorganization and new figure to lead the party? Yes.....that's the sad part of the story.
Most working-class Germans would say that reputation, status, and 'promises-kept'....related to the SPD....have soured over the past decade. Reasons? As an outsider, I would offer these five observations:
1. Chancellor Merkel did everything possible to push her own CDU Party to the center of the spectrum. It would be correct to say that the CDU today....resembles some Frankenstein-creation that is half-CDU and half-SPD. Even some of the conservative-type voters would laugh and say their right-of-center party no longer exists today.
2. When you go and drag up immigration, asylum and migration....the SPD took the open-door view and were pro-immigration and pro-integration. It was probably a positive trend for them all the way up to spring of 2017, but that silly New Year's Eve episode in Koln changed the prospective of a lot of Germans, and the Party was stuck with a brand-name, and public view that something was wrong. When the public stance shifted.....the SPD folks were handcuffed and unable to move on or repair their message.
3. Pro-working-class party? That was a central theme of the SPD in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. That brand hasn't really existed at that level for the past two decades. It was a strategy shift that saw more popular and trendy positions pushed, and the plain working-class guy was left by the side of the road.
4. Lack of a brand-guy to lead the party? Over the past twenty years, there's been probably a dozen individuals come and go. Each came with the 'look' and the used-car salesman 'attire'. Each stumbled along and marginally lifted the party.
5. Finally, the over-the-edge dynamics of politics being 'hot' and news journalists selling the latest emergency of the day? While it's a major problem in the US.....that same trend has been brewing here in Germany. It's safe to say that some Germans have pushed back and don't get thrilled over continual political bickering or public forum discussions.
So where does this all lead? I would suggest that the 2021 national election will be a dismal situation, with the SPD lucky to get 16-to-18 percent of the national vote. A big enough failure to trigger yet another reorganization and new figure to lead the party? Yes.....that's the sad part of the story.
Friday, August 23, 2019
The Digital Question
This came up yesterday and it's a curious view of Germans and how they see things.
So the FDP Party went and asked for a public survey/poll from Forsa (the Institute). The question is....do you (as an average German) believe that German politicians are preparing in a sufficient way....the general population for the digital age and all the things that come with it (privacy, control, populism, etc)? The answer....around 83-percent of Germans said 'no'.
The vast majority of Germans don't see the government on the front-end of this advancing culture.
I sat and pondered over this.
Frankly, you could have asked this in the 1960s and Germans (for that matter, even Brits or Americans) would have said that things were advancing awful fast and the government even at that point....was not out front.
Does it even matter? Is there any politician (from France, the UK, Germany or the US) who you can look back upon twenty years ago, and put faith into this guy or gal.....being at the front of the new modern era, with gadgets, toys, or software? I don't think such a 'creature' exists.
Is this something that you'd even want a political party to tackle?
If you didn't catch on real early (say in 2010) about Facebook and the privacy issue or personal data problem.....you were probably awful naive. The business with Twitter and public comments? If you don't grasp that forty comments in an hour could easily trigger you to get peeved.....shouldn't you just log off and avoid looking at comments?
It sounds like the FDP folks are trying to convince Germans that you need some political establishment looking after your little world. But man, that sure does sound like the script to the book '1984', if you ask me.
So the FDP Party went and asked for a public survey/poll from Forsa (the Institute). The question is....do you (as an average German) believe that German politicians are preparing in a sufficient way....the general population for the digital age and all the things that come with it (privacy, control, populism, etc)? The answer....around 83-percent of Germans said 'no'.
The vast majority of Germans don't see the government on the front-end of this advancing culture.
I sat and pondered over this.
Frankly, you could have asked this in the 1960s and Germans (for that matter, even Brits or Americans) would have said that things were advancing awful fast and the government even at that point....was not out front.
Does it even matter? Is there any politician (from France, the UK, Germany or the US) who you can look back upon twenty years ago, and put faith into this guy or gal.....being at the front of the new modern era, with gadgets, toys, or software? I don't think such a 'creature' exists.
Is this something that you'd even want a political party to tackle?
If you didn't catch on real early (say in 2010) about Facebook and the privacy issue or personal data problem.....you were probably awful naive. The business with Twitter and public comments? If you don't grasp that forty comments in an hour could easily trigger you to get peeved.....shouldn't you just log off and avoid looking at comments?
It sounds like the FDP folks are trying to convince Germans that you need some political establishment looking after your little world. But man, that sure does sound like the script to the book '1984', if you ask me.
Germany, Automatics, and Manual Shift
For most Americans who came to do a tour in Germany.....you'd eventually go and purchase a German vehicle as either the primary or second car. In this period before the 1990s.....the vast number of cars that you came across....were manual-shift. For most of us, it's not a big deal.
Somewhere in the 1990s to the past decade....automatics started to come more often....up to around the 17-percent point. In the past year, the Germans have noted that we've reached the point where 25-percent of the cars registered...are automatics.
Well, if you've test-driven the new battery cars, you kinda notice that ALL of them come ONLY in automatic.
So the German Transportation Ministry has had this discussion going on. They want more Germans trained in the driving classes to handle automatics. I know....most Americans laugh over this 'certification' business, and that you don't need four hours of test-driving and some educational instructor telling you the way to drive an automatic.
The jest of this is that they want the driving instructors (all private agencies, and in each village/town) to go out and get electric cars. You can laugh over this suggestion....with the majority of electrical vehicles between 40k to 60k Euro. The vast number of instructor all have a manual and automatic type car in their training inventory. But mandating that they have to own a electric car to be part of the training? Most instructors would just laugh over the idea.
But this ought to bring you to this pondering moment. In roughly 12 years....all new cars will be sold as electric cars only (unless the hydrogen thing catches on), and ALL of them will be automatic. A harsh reality for some Germans who driven manual all their life and approaching 70 years old? Yeah....it's something to think about.
I brought this up with my wife (who has only driven manual her entire life), and the likely chance that come 2030 that she wants to go and buy a new car.....that she won't be able to buy a manual shift anymore. For her, it's not an acceptable thing. I can sense that come around 2028 when the last gas cars are being sold in Germany.....I'll go and try to find one still with the manual shift, and buy it. Even if I'm around for another 20 years.....I'll have to keep this car in shape because of the wife and her dedication to manual shift options.
Somewhere in the 1990s to the past decade....automatics started to come more often....up to around the 17-percent point. In the past year, the Germans have noted that we've reached the point where 25-percent of the cars registered...are automatics.
Well, if you've test-driven the new battery cars, you kinda notice that ALL of them come ONLY in automatic.
So the German Transportation Ministry has had this discussion going on. They want more Germans trained in the driving classes to handle automatics. I know....most Americans laugh over this 'certification' business, and that you don't need four hours of test-driving and some educational instructor telling you the way to drive an automatic.
The jest of this is that they want the driving instructors (all private agencies, and in each village/town) to go out and get electric cars. You can laugh over this suggestion....with the majority of electrical vehicles between 40k to 60k Euro. The vast number of instructor all have a manual and automatic type car in their training inventory. But mandating that they have to own a electric car to be part of the training? Most instructors would just laugh over the idea.
But this ought to bring you to this pondering moment. In roughly 12 years....all new cars will be sold as electric cars only (unless the hydrogen thing catches on), and ALL of them will be automatic. A harsh reality for some Germans who driven manual all their life and approaching 70 years old? Yeah....it's something to think about.
I brought this up with my wife (who has only driven manual her entire life), and the likely chance that come 2030 that she wants to go and buy a new car.....that she won't be able to buy a manual shift anymore. For her, it's not an acceptable thing. I can sense that come around 2028 when the last gas cars are being sold in Germany.....I'll go and try to find one still with the manual shift, and buy it. Even if I'm around for another 20 years.....I'll have to keep this car in shape because of the wife and her dedication to manual shift options.
Chatter Over a Wealth Tax
There's a page two story out there today, which goes over a German topic of a wealth tax being invented.
The political party discussing this? The SPD. Right now, they've sunk fairly low in polls, and probably would only get around 16-percent of the vote if a national election were held.
So how much is this tax being talked about? They seem to want in the 10-billion Euro range to be exercised from wealthy people and business operations. Why 10-billion? No one says much of the nice round number business. It always bothers me when numbers look so 'round'.
Where would it be spent? That's talked about to a minor degree.....welfare and pension reform. The pension reform deal is because a fair number of Germans have worked their entire life on basic wages, and find at 66....they aren't making enough to survive.
The odds of this tax being passed? Right now, in the beginning of a recession? Zero chance. Even if the recession weren't in the landscape.....it'd be hard to convince the partner here (the CDU-CSU folks) to go along with this. In 2021, after the next election? Well.....that's a different story and very likely.
But here's the thing. If you were making 25-million Euro a year, and they came up to say on top of the regular tax you were already paying.....you needed to pay 700k Euro for a wealth tax as well....it'd trigger you to add up the property tax, the sales VAT, and the regular income tax. You probably are giving 10-to-12 million Euro already each year in various taxes. It might make you ask.....why should I stay in Germany, when I could establish myself in a more tax-friendly country.
Chasing people out? This is the problem that Sweden went through in the 20-year period of the early 70s to early 90s. Businesses and millionaires eventually said enough and left. A massive shift was required in the 1990s to overcome the lack of income in Sweden. The same problem could happen in Germany, if they weren't careful about this.
The political party discussing this? The SPD. Right now, they've sunk fairly low in polls, and probably would only get around 16-percent of the vote if a national election were held.
So how much is this tax being talked about? They seem to want in the 10-billion Euro range to be exercised from wealthy people and business operations. Why 10-billion? No one says much of the nice round number business. It always bothers me when numbers look so 'round'.
Where would it be spent? That's talked about to a minor degree.....welfare and pension reform. The pension reform deal is because a fair number of Germans have worked their entire life on basic wages, and find at 66....they aren't making enough to survive.
The odds of this tax being passed? Right now, in the beginning of a recession? Zero chance. Even if the recession weren't in the landscape.....it'd be hard to convince the partner here (the CDU-CSU folks) to go along with this. In 2021, after the next election? Well.....that's a different story and very likely.
But here's the thing. If you were making 25-million Euro a year, and they came up to say on top of the regular tax you were already paying.....you needed to pay 700k Euro for a wealth tax as well....it'd trigger you to add up the property tax, the sales VAT, and the regular income tax. You probably are giving 10-to-12 million Euro already each year in various taxes. It might make you ask.....why should I stay in Germany, when I could establish myself in a more tax-friendly country.
Chasing people out? This is the problem that Sweden went through in the 20-year period of the early 70s to early 90s. Businesses and millionaires eventually said enough and left. A massive shift was required in the 1990s to overcome the lack of income in Sweden. The same problem could happen in Germany, if they weren't careful about this.
1 September: Brandenburg State Election
We are roughly a week away, and general polling indicates a tough race.
Both the SPD (left of center) and AfD Party (far-right) are anticipated to take around 22-percent of the vote. For the SPD, and it's big win from five years ago in Brandenburg....it's a fair-sized drop.
The CDU (right of center) and the Linke Party (far-left) are slated to take in the 15-to-18 percent range of votes. The Greens are far back at around 10-to-12 percent.
A coalition? If the SPD can win this.....you might see a SPD-Linke-Green situation. If the AfD were to win? No one can say how a coalition would exist, and I have my doubts that it'd work for them. Course, they could run a minority-state government situation. It's another race worth watching on the Sunday evening news (on the 1st).
Both the SPD (left of center) and AfD Party (far-right) are anticipated to take around 22-percent of the vote. For the SPD, and it's big win from five years ago in Brandenburg....it's a fair-sized drop.
The CDU (right of center) and the Linke Party (far-left) are slated to take in the 15-to-18 percent range of votes. The Greens are far back at around 10-to-12 percent.
A coalition? If the SPD can win this.....you might see a SPD-Linke-Green situation. If the AfD were to win? No one can say how a coalition would exist, and I have my doubts that it'd work for them. Course, they could run a minority-state government situation. It's another race worth watching on the Sunday evening news (on the 1st).
Saxony Election Coming Up
The Saxony state election in Germany.....occurs in roughly a week.
The current projection? Well, it's dismal for the SPD Party (left of center group). They are near 7-percent in regional polling and it's possible they may not even cross the 5-percent point (where it's enough to have a seat in the state assembly).
The likely winner right now? The CDU Party (right of center). But with 30-percent of the vote (currently projected).....it's hard to figure the coalition partner in this German state election.
The AfD Party (the anti-immigration or far-right group) will probably be taking near 23-to-25 percent of the vote, and won't be invited to any coalition deals.
Even the Green Party is on the slim side....with projections being around 10-to-12 percent.
So on the evening of the 1st of September....this will topic number one with news journalists, and how dismal the SPD did in the election.
The current projection? Well, it's dismal for the SPD Party (left of center group). They are near 7-percent in regional polling and it's possible they may not even cross the 5-percent point (where it's enough to have a seat in the state assembly).
The likely winner right now? The CDU Party (right of center). But with 30-percent of the vote (currently projected).....it's hard to figure the coalition partner in this German state election.
The AfD Party (the anti-immigration or far-right group) will probably be taking near 23-to-25 percent of the vote, and won't be invited to any coalition deals.
Even the Green Party is on the slim side....with projections being around 10-to-12 percent.
So on the evening of the 1st of September....this will topic number one with news journalists, and how dismal the SPD did in the election.
E-Scooter Observation
I should note, it's roughly four city blocks where delivery trucks, bicycles, and E-Scooters are forbidden after 11 AM in the morning. It's mostly due to a heavy load of pedestrian traffic and shoppers.
E-Scooters? Well, I probably noticed at least twenty of the riders violating the law, and on some occasions....barely missing shoppers.
It's a rather new phenomenon, and as much as the police and authorities have emphasized where the E-Scooters can or can't go.....it doesn't matter.
It's only a matter of time before some teenager hits some old retiree, and they hit the ground with a concussion.....then this openness with the E-Scooter will evaporate rather quickly.
Germans and Greta
Over the past year, there's been a lot of hype in Germany over Greta Thunberg (the Swedish 16-year old girl who is out to save the world from climate change, and persuading German students to strike on Fridays at noon).
So the news media had some expectations as they sent the poll folks out in the last week, and were a bit shocked to see that seven out of ten German adults polled....aren't excited over Greta and her campaign. In fact, if you review the polling and note CDU, CSU, FDP, AfD type voters.....a pretty strong majority aren't hyped-up over Greta or the campaign.
At some point here with the new school year starting....I suspect some schools are going to get tough on the strike game (Fridays), and start to take stronger measures than they did last school-year.
You can view the poll discussion over at ARD's morning news.
So the news media had some expectations as they sent the poll folks out in the last week, and were a bit shocked to see that seven out of ten German adults polled....aren't excited over Greta and her campaign. In fact, if you review the polling and note CDU, CSU, FDP, AfD type voters.....a pretty strong majority aren't hyped-up over Greta or the campaign.
At some point here with the new school year starting....I suspect some schools are going to get tough on the strike game (Fridays), and start to take stronger measures than they did last school-year.
You can view the poll discussion over at ARD's morning news.
Thursday, August 22, 2019
The Equal Discussion
There is this political effort underway in Germany.....via political parties of various types....to suggest that you can pass a law and guarantee everyone has EQUAL living conditions. It's not only a socialist agenda, but it's a Green Party agenda....a right-of-center agenda, and even a journalist/think-tank agenda.
Yes, there's even a commission who is studying this idea and how you would make this work.
So you sit there and think about this....making up a understanding that virtually all Germans could have the same expected and EQUAL living conditions.
Transportation? That would mean a rural town of 800 residents would have guaranteed decent bus service....say two buses an hour in the 'rush-hours' and one per hour the rest of the day. Is this possible? I have my doubts.
Police protection? If you have a region with marginal crime....would it be protected at the same level as Frankfurt? I kinda doubt it.
DSL-level internet speed? Probably 20-percent of Germans still don't have what you'd consider to be high-speed internet. Could you force the telephone companies and internet companies to provide it at the same level across Germany? I doubt it.
Job-potential? Right now across Bavaria, there are hundreds of companies in need of employees, and in some locations....the unemployment rate is less than 2-percent. How would you create an equal-balance on this? Would you force people to move from their home-town....to a different city?
This whole conversation is about a dog chasing his 'tail' and trying to equalize things which just doesn't work well. It sounds good in these forums, and would look great in some Constitutional reform. But how would you go and measure this, and then create the template to make this work?
Just to suggest in Hessen....that you could make everyone in the region equal....would be near impossible.
Yet, here we are, with a commission, and public forum chats.....working on the impossible.
Yes, there's even a commission who is studying this idea and how you would make this work.
So you sit there and think about this....making up a understanding that virtually all Germans could have the same expected and EQUAL living conditions.
Transportation? That would mean a rural town of 800 residents would have guaranteed decent bus service....say two buses an hour in the 'rush-hours' and one per hour the rest of the day. Is this possible? I have my doubts.
Police protection? If you have a region with marginal crime....would it be protected at the same level as Frankfurt? I kinda doubt it.
DSL-level internet speed? Probably 20-percent of Germans still don't have what you'd consider to be high-speed internet. Could you force the telephone companies and internet companies to provide it at the same level across Germany? I doubt it.
Job-potential? Right now across Bavaria, there are hundreds of companies in need of employees, and in some locations....the unemployment rate is less than 2-percent. How would you create an equal-balance on this? Would you force people to move from their home-town....to a different city?
This whole conversation is about a dog chasing his 'tail' and trying to equalize things which just doesn't work well. It sounds good in these forums, and would look great in some Constitutional reform. But how would you go and measure this, and then create the template to make this work?
Just to suggest in Hessen....that you could make everyone in the region equal....would be near impossible.
Yet, here we are, with a commission, and public forum chats.....working on the impossible.
Cash For Clunkers Plan in the Works?
It came up in the past two days....that the German Finance Minister has a plan in place where if the recession does hit Germany....he has around 50-billion Euro waiting to be used in some way identical to the 2008/2009 period, and help to restart the German economy during the recession. Another cash for clunkers period? In simple terms, yes.
Add onto this detail that he (Olaf Scholz) represents the SPD Party and in the last week....put his name in the hat to be the leader of the party.
As for how the fifty billion would be spent? Unknown. Some of this might go to diesel car owners (those with diesel cars over 10 years old)....to trade in and get some extra rebate. Some extra bridges and roads in the mix? Maybe.
If you go back to the 2008/2009 economic slowdown, the money pumped into projects did help to lessen the pain and brought things back rather quickly.
Add onto this detail that he (Olaf Scholz) represents the SPD Party and in the last week....put his name in the hat to be the leader of the party.
As for how the fifty billion would be spent? Unknown. Some of this might go to diesel car owners (those with diesel cars over 10 years old)....to trade in and get some extra rebate. Some extra bridges and roads in the mix? Maybe.
If you go back to the 2008/2009 economic slowdown, the money pumped into projects did help to lessen the pain and brought things back rather quickly.
Talking Over German (or West German) Unemployment Rates
This is one of those free-range essays I write....discussing an interesting topic of unemployment rates in Germany.
For reference, I use Trading Economics as the source of info.
When you go back to the period after WW II....the period of 1948 to the early 1950s....West German unemployment rates went to around 12-percent. But as you get into the 1950s, and the construction boom that occurred, you can look at the trend line and see that it dropped year after year....to a low-point in the early 1960s of one-percent unemployment.
Yes, virtually everyone who wanted to work....found work.
With one single period in the early 1970s where it doubled (to around 2.5-percent unemployment)....this was a remarkable period.
So around 1974, it went up to around four-percent. Various tools and gimmicks were employed by the political machine at the time to 'repair' this....but it barely dropped it back down to 3-percent over a two-year period. The glory period....was finished.
In the 1980s, it ranged from 6 to 8 percent unemployment. In the early 90s, for a brief year or two, it came amazingly close to 5-percent.....then returned to around 10-percent in 2000.
So as the Merkel period started up....the trend for German unemployment (remember, this is a decade into a unified Germany)....Merkel's team was carving one-percent off the rate almost yearly. By 2010, they were nearing 5-percent unemployment.
What you can generally say is that the 'peak' has been achieved and they probably won't see anything less than the five-percent often discussed these days.
What helped in achieving 5-percent? For a fair number of Germans, not just the economists saying this, was the remaking of the welfare rules back around twenty years ago. When they finished the new rules.....it didn't really pay to stay on welfare. You were going to be making the absolute minimum in money. This 'encouragement' (at least in the minds of most people)....helped to force people to seek employment, even if they were only making 10-to-20 percent more than welfare was paying.
So why is this recession chatter bothering some political folks?
Well....unemployment would creep up....maybe to the seven-to-eight percent level, and the revenue tax machine would have problems in meeting the budget. So the Germans have this law in effect (it's been around for 10 years).....they can only approve budgets that relate to the GDP, and can't borrow or go past that point. If the recession occurs, and the revenue bucket is challenged.....they would be forced to cut the budget. Where? Oh.....that's the part of the law that was not detailed out. You can imagine political folks standing there and having to make a decision to cut 5-percent of the approaching year's budget, and arguing for hours over the idea that roads and bridges will be cut, or education.
It's a curious path taken and why this recession chatter is growing in intensity.
For reference, I use Trading Economics as the source of info.
When you go back to the period after WW II....the period of 1948 to the early 1950s....West German unemployment rates went to around 12-percent. But as you get into the 1950s, and the construction boom that occurred, you can look at the trend line and see that it dropped year after year....to a low-point in the early 1960s of one-percent unemployment.
Yes, virtually everyone who wanted to work....found work.
With one single period in the early 1970s where it doubled (to around 2.5-percent unemployment)....this was a remarkable period.
So around 1974, it went up to around four-percent. Various tools and gimmicks were employed by the political machine at the time to 'repair' this....but it barely dropped it back down to 3-percent over a two-year period. The glory period....was finished.
In the 1980s, it ranged from 6 to 8 percent unemployment. In the early 90s, for a brief year or two, it came amazingly close to 5-percent.....then returned to around 10-percent in 2000.
So as the Merkel period started up....the trend for German unemployment (remember, this is a decade into a unified Germany)....Merkel's team was carving one-percent off the rate almost yearly. By 2010, they were nearing 5-percent unemployment.
What you can generally say is that the 'peak' has been achieved and they probably won't see anything less than the five-percent often discussed these days.
What helped in achieving 5-percent? For a fair number of Germans, not just the economists saying this, was the remaking of the welfare rules back around twenty years ago. When they finished the new rules.....it didn't really pay to stay on welfare. You were going to be making the absolute minimum in money. This 'encouragement' (at least in the minds of most people)....helped to force people to seek employment, even if they were only making 10-to-20 percent more than welfare was paying.
So why is this recession chatter bothering some political folks?
Well....unemployment would creep up....maybe to the seven-to-eight percent level, and the revenue tax machine would have problems in meeting the budget. So the Germans have this law in effect (it's been around for 10 years).....they can only approve budgets that relate to the GDP, and can't borrow or go past that point. If the recession occurs, and the revenue bucket is challenged.....they would be forced to cut the budget. Where? Oh.....that's the part of the law that was not detailed out. You can imagine political folks standing there and having to make a decision to cut 5-percent of the approaching year's budget, and arguing for hours over the idea that roads and bridges will be cut, or education.
It's a curious path taken and why this recession chatter is growing in intensity.
Chemnitz Chatter
So this is one of those odd stories to bring up in Germany.
Around a year ago in Chemnitz, a major German city between Dresden and Frankfurt....a murder occurred on the streets there. German guy dead....Syrian immigrant is the suspect. For a week or two....demonstrations occurred and German political figures got themselves into the middle of this....trying to get the public in Chemnitz to simmer down and let justice take place.
So the court case for the accused Syrian is about to conclude. Sometime between late-September and mid-October, the court will hand down the verdict and sentence.
Attempted murder charges? No. The prosecution team went for manslaughter, and bodily harm. What they've asked for is nine years for the manslaughter episode, and two years for bodily harm.
The max that you can get in Germany for manslaughter? Fifteen years.
Current problems in the case? At the beginning, there was a stance taken that a witness could say that he saw the stabbing (note, there's a second suspect in the episode). This witness? Current chatter suggests that he didn't really observe much of the stabbing. His value in the case is diminished, whether the prosecutor wants to admit that or not.
Could the court say that the witness isn't reliable, and that the 2nd guy might be more involved? Maybe. They could say 'innocent' on manslaughter, and just go for the bodily harm situation.
How would the public react? I suspect with significant anger. Politically, it would hurt the general public view of 'justice' and be another reason to vote AfD in future elections.
How did this stabbing business all occur? Some perceived threat, and the two immigrants holding a knife as a general defense weapon. Germans often point out this knife business is becoming a daily topic on assaults and they perceive it as a public 'alarm' situation.
UPDATE: Well, this afternoon, the news came out. Convicted. Nine years, six months. An appeal for the Syrian? Likely. But the charge is over manslaughter and bodily harm....not murder in first or second degree. Odds of any public discontent? I would suggest not.
Around a year ago in Chemnitz, a major German city between Dresden and Frankfurt....a murder occurred on the streets there. German guy dead....Syrian immigrant is the suspect. For a week or two....demonstrations occurred and German political figures got themselves into the middle of this....trying to get the public in Chemnitz to simmer down and let justice take place.
So the court case for the accused Syrian is about to conclude. Sometime between late-September and mid-October, the court will hand down the verdict and sentence.
Attempted murder charges? No. The prosecution team went for manslaughter, and bodily harm. What they've asked for is nine years for the manslaughter episode, and two years for bodily harm.
The max that you can get in Germany for manslaughter? Fifteen years.
Current problems in the case? At the beginning, there was a stance taken that a witness could say that he saw the stabbing (note, there's a second suspect in the episode). This witness? Current chatter suggests that he didn't really observe much of the stabbing. His value in the case is diminished, whether the prosecutor wants to admit that or not.
Could the court say that the witness isn't reliable, and that the 2nd guy might be more involved? Maybe. They could say 'innocent' on manslaughter, and just go for the bodily harm situation.
How would the public react? I suspect with significant anger. Politically, it would hurt the general public view of 'justice' and be another reason to vote AfD in future elections.
How did this stabbing business all occur? Some perceived threat, and the two immigrants holding a knife as a general defense weapon. Germans often point out this knife business is becoming a daily topic on assaults and they perceive it as a public 'alarm' situation.
UPDATE: Well, this afternoon, the news came out. Convicted. Nine years, six months. An appeal for the Syrian? Likely. But the charge is over manslaughter and bodily harm....not murder in first or second degree. Odds of any public discontent? I would suggest not.
The Greenland 'Script'
In terms of long-term vision....one has to stand back and view this 'Trump-chatter' and Greenland in a special way.
Size-wise, people fail to grasp this.....but it's about the size of California, Oregon, Nevada, Idaho, Washington, Arizona and Utah combined. Total population? A mere 50,000....mostly natives, a few European scientists, and one US military group.
So here's the big insider view.....if the 'thaw' continues....then the ice age for Greenland will end in roughly twenty years (with probably 50-percent of Greenland then being non-glacier). I'm NOT saying that it's warm or inviting for temperatures....it'll still be a harsh winter environment and much like Alaska from September to March.
What's there in terms of value? Oil, natural gas, copper, diamonds, gold, neodymium, terbium, uranium, praseodymium, marble, and probably rubies. People have known this for decades. For Danes, I doubt if the majority of Danes grasp the approaching conflict with the 'thaw' and scenarios in play.
For the rare-Earth minerals? This is a big deal and there are various groups in the EU which realize the impact, and the value of area. Whether the Danes like the idea or not....someone will eventually force the issue up on the EU agenda, and pressure Danish political figures to allow some type of mining to occur. After that occurs.....the copper and marble crowd will arrive, and somewhere fifty years later....the oil and natural gas crowd will arrive.
The Danes may be sitting and thinking they can preserve it, and keep it 'free'. But at some point, the 'thaw' will reach a level where a quarter of the land mass is exposed year-round, and some European group will be hyped-up to go and mine for rare-Earth minerals. The Danes will attempt to fight them off, and some fancy foot-work by the EU will open the door to rare-Earth minerals. From that point on....every couple of years....another forced acceptance will be put upon Denmark to accept more mining and more exploration of oil or natural gas.
The Danes may be 'pure of heart' but the reality is....if the 'thaw' continues, it'll simply open up a long-term discussion over Greenland.
Selling to the US? This 150-billion that Trump talks about? To be honest, Denmark should have countered and said 2.5-trillion dollars, and never stepped down an inch. Trump's opening pitch was extreme low-ball, and the eventual payoff from the minerals and natural gas would easily exceed trillions.
What could hinder this whole discussion? The 'thaw' could stop and reverse itself. A return to harsh winters and the gradual build-up of the glaciers again. A repeating process? Go look over what the historians say.....it comes, and goes. You could go in and develop some mining operation, and in ten brief years...find the conditions changed, and the winters too harsh for mining.
It's a curious discussion and Trump really opened up the door for everyone to think about the implications. Whether it's the US, or the EU....it'll eventually be mined. The Danes may seek to protect it to the bitter end, but it's an ending they would NOT be pleased with.
Size-wise, people fail to grasp this.....but it's about the size of California, Oregon, Nevada, Idaho, Washington, Arizona and Utah combined. Total population? A mere 50,000....mostly natives, a few European scientists, and one US military group.
So here's the big insider view.....if the 'thaw' continues....then the ice age for Greenland will end in roughly twenty years (with probably 50-percent of Greenland then being non-glacier). I'm NOT saying that it's warm or inviting for temperatures....it'll still be a harsh winter environment and much like Alaska from September to March.
What's there in terms of value? Oil, natural gas, copper, diamonds, gold, neodymium, terbium, uranium, praseodymium, marble, and probably rubies. People have known this for decades. For Danes, I doubt if the majority of Danes grasp the approaching conflict with the 'thaw' and scenarios in play.
For the rare-Earth minerals? This is a big deal and there are various groups in the EU which realize the impact, and the value of area. Whether the Danes like the idea or not....someone will eventually force the issue up on the EU agenda, and pressure Danish political figures to allow some type of mining to occur. After that occurs.....the copper and marble crowd will arrive, and somewhere fifty years later....the oil and natural gas crowd will arrive.
The Danes may be sitting and thinking they can preserve it, and keep it 'free'. But at some point, the 'thaw' will reach a level where a quarter of the land mass is exposed year-round, and some European group will be hyped-up to go and mine for rare-Earth minerals. The Danes will attempt to fight them off, and some fancy foot-work by the EU will open the door to rare-Earth minerals. From that point on....every couple of years....another forced acceptance will be put upon Denmark to accept more mining and more exploration of oil or natural gas.
The Danes may be 'pure of heart' but the reality is....if the 'thaw' continues, it'll simply open up a long-term discussion over Greenland.
Selling to the US? This 150-billion that Trump talks about? To be honest, Denmark should have countered and said 2.5-trillion dollars, and never stepped down an inch. Trump's opening pitch was extreme low-ball, and the eventual payoff from the minerals and natural gas would easily exceed trillions.
What could hinder this whole discussion? The 'thaw' could stop and reverse itself. A return to harsh winters and the gradual build-up of the glaciers again. A repeating process? Go look over what the historians say.....it comes, and goes. You could go in and develop some mining operation, and in ten brief years...find the conditions changed, and the winters too harsh for mining.
It's a curious discussion and Trump really opened up the door for everyone to think about the implications. Whether it's the US, or the EU....it'll eventually be mined. The Danes may seek to protect it to the bitter end, but it's an ending they would NOT be pleased with.
Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Berlin Raids This Morning?
Sometime around sun-up today (Wed) in Berlin, two-thousand cops went on a mission. What is said right now...at least a hundred homes and businesses....run by crime-clans or mafia groups...are being checked out.
Will this lead onto charges? Unknown. But it could lead onto more raids.
Update: What drove the raid....information on 'black' level employment on construction jobs. The cops had some type of info that various crime groups were bringing in non-Germans for projects, and not deducting taxes.
Will this lead onto charges? Unknown. But it could lead onto more raids.
Update: What drove the raid....information on 'black' level employment on construction jobs. The cops had some type of info that various crime groups were bringing in non-Germans for projects, and not deducting taxes.
Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Why the German Recession at this Point?
This is a curious essay to write, and really reflects over events of the past thirty-to-forty year period.
First, the manufacturing 'arm' of Germany (mostly all left over from the West Germany days prior to 1990)....had a tax base and relationship with the government that was built on stability. The belief was.....if this base stayed stable....jobs would be plentiful and profits would be spread around.
So these guys were consumed to export. Not just to EU neighbors, but China, Russia, and the US. As long as these relations were all lined up.....purchases of German products were made, and the profits fell into the German revenue pot.
Second, you can say in a remarkable way....that a perfect line-of-sight existed for at least twenty years in terms of trading partners.
Now? The Trump effect is a problem. BREXIT is a problem. The embargo business with Russia is a problem. And the trade-imbalance situation with China is now a burden.
So what magic does Chancellor Merkel have left? None. She would have to talk with Trump (it won't happen), repair the BREXIT business (it won't happen), reshuffle the China trade situation (it won't happen), and improve it's trade relationships within Europe (this could happen but only if France agrees).
So the recession has to arrive, and Merkel has to go.....for this to resolve itself? Well, there's this other problem. Let's say that Merkel doesn't see a need to exit until the fall of 2021 (the normal election period), and the Greens arrive to claim the Chancellor position. Would Germans worry more about the climate change business, or in recreating trade-improvements? That's a serious problem to ponder.
Might this recession last more than a year or two? That's part of the bigger problem. One might look over the past recessions in Germany (at least after WW II), and say that slow periods come and go, usually lasting a year or two. There hasn't been an extended three or more year recession to mess with. For this to resolve itself.....you'd need the US trade picture to be clear, that a trade situation is developed for the UK, and German companies feeling no problem with taxes. Right now....none of those elements exist.
Is there added weight to this recession? The German steel and coal industry are more or less....in decline. It's been that way for a number of years.
The collection plate for the EU? Well, yes.....you have to add in the fact that the UK will leave the EU, and there is an expectation for 'someone' to help make up the loss of income.
The odds that Merkel will exit in the next twelve months? I would go and suggest extremely likely. But who would replace her and guide the country through this recession? That's unknown.
First, the manufacturing 'arm' of Germany (mostly all left over from the West Germany days prior to 1990)....had a tax base and relationship with the government that was built on stability. The belief was.....if this base stayed stable....jobs would be plentiful and profits would be spread around.
So these guys were consumed to export. Not just to EU neighbors, but China, Russia, and the US. As long as these relations were all lined up.....purchases of German products were made, and the profits fell into the German revenue pot.
Second, you can say in a remarkable way....that a perfect line-of-sight existed for at least twenty years in terms of trading partners.
Now? The Trump effect is a problem. BREXIT is a problem. The embargo business with Russia is a problem. And the trade-imbalance situation with China is now a burden.
So what magic does Chancellor Merkel have left? None. She would have to talk with Trump (it won't happen), repair the BREXIT business (it won't happen), reshuffle the China trade situation (it won't happen), and improve it's trade relationships within Europe (this could happen but only if France agrees).
So the recession has to arrive, and Merkel has to go.....for this to resolve itself? Well, there's this other problem. Let's say that Merkel doesn't see a need to exit until the fall of 2021 (the normal election period), and the Greens arrive to claim the Chancellor position. Would Germans worry more about the climate change business, or in recreating trade-improvements? That's a serious problem to ponder.
Might this recession last more than a year or two? That's part of the bigger problem. One might look over the past recessions in Germany (at least after WW II), and say that slow periods come and go, usually lasting a year or two. There hasn't been an extended three or more year recession to mess with. For this to resolve itself.....you'd need the US trade picture to be clear, that a trade situation is developed for the UK, and German companies feeling no problem with taxes. Right now....none of those elements exist.
Is there added weight to this recession? The German steel and coal industry are more or less....in decline. It's been that way for a number of years.
The collection plate for the EU? Well, yes.....you have to add in the fact that the UK will leave the EU, and there is an expectation for 'someone' to help make up the loss of income.
The odds that Merkel will exit in the next twelve months? I would go and suggest extremely likely. But who would replace her and guide the country through this recession? That's unknown.
'Vacationing' in Syria Comment
It's a three-line story but has a bit of curiosity attached to it.
Over the weekend, Germany's Interior Minister (Horst Seehofer, CSU) made a comment that if you were a Syrian in Germany.....on a refugee status visa....and continually 'vacationing' in Syria, then you ought to have your refugee status 'revoked'.
So what's the whole thing about?
Well, some Syrians who arrived in Germany....have relatives and property back in Syria. Things in the past two years have drifted back to a fairly peaceful status. Some Syrians (holding a visa) are quietly buying airline tickets and going back to visit the old country. It's just a visit....not an exit from Germany.
Some Germans (hard to say if it's substantial or not) think this isn't correct for you to hold this refugee visa, and vacation in the old country.
Laws against it? That's the amusing thing.....there's nothing substantial to use on this situation. Seehofer would have to write up a law, and get the SPD to go along with this. Odds of this happening? Zero percent chance right now.
The other question that really should be asked....just how many folks are flying back for a visit to Syria? If this is a thousand per year.....it's not worth discussing. If this were 25,000 a year.....well, it might be worth some minor discussion.
Here's the thing that you have to think about.....are you going to write up a law that says these countries are forbidden to you while in refugee status and holding a German visa? I doubt it.
This whole refugee status business should have been discussed out twenty years ago, and some categories developed to ensure folks got safety status but limited to a period of time (like one year max). In the present business, no one has desired to establish a real program, or lay out the path for different categories.
So this comment from the weekend....is just a lot of 'hot air'? Yeah, more or less. It'll get some traction for public forums, and probably a quarter of Germans will agree....vacations in Syria ought to signal that the war is over, and maybe the refugee status ought to evolve into a time-limit. But don't go expecting anything to occur.
Over the weekend, Germany's Interior Minister (Horst Seehofer, CSU) made a comment that if you were a Syrian in Germany.....on a refugee status visa....and continually 'vacationing' in Syria, then you ought to have your refugee status 'revoked'.
So what's the whole thing about?
Well, some Syrians who arrived in Germany....have relatives and property back in Syria. Things in the past two years have drifted back to a fairly peaceful status. Some Syrians (holding a visa) are quietly buying airline tickets and going back to visit the old country. It's just a visit....not an exit from Germany.
Some Germans (hard to say if it's substantial or not) think this isn't correct for you to hold this refugee visa, and vacation in the old country.
Laws against it? That's the amusing thing.....there's nothing substantial to use on this situation. Seehofer would have to write up a law, and get the SPD to go along with this. Odds of this happening? Zero percent chance right now.
The other question that really should be asked....just how many folks are flying back for a visit to Syria? If this is a thousand per year.....it's not worth discussing. If this were 25,000 a year.....well, it might be worth some minor discussion.
Here's the thing that you have to think about.....are you going to write up a law that says these countries are forbidden to you while in refugee status and holding a German visa? I doubt it.
This whole refugee status business should have been discussed out twenty years ago, and some categories developed to ensure folks got safety status but limited to a period of time (like one year max). In the present business, no one has desired to establish a real program, or lay out the path for different categories.
So this comment from the weekend....is just a lot of 'hot air'? Yeah, more or less. It'll get some traction for public forums, and probably a quarter of Germans will agree....vacations in Syria ought to signal that the war is over, and maybe the refugee status ought to evolve into a time-limit. But don't go expecting anything to occur.
Monday, August 19, 2019
The Odds of a New Negotiation for the BREXIT Folks?
Zero.
Yep, it's not even a five-percent chance.
The EU doesn't care, and the leadership of France and Germany believe that the system is rigged up enough that the UK simply won't exit. Delay after delay, in their mind.....will eventually lead to BREXIT collapsing and bring the crowd back.
What happens when Johnson rigs the system to deliver a hard BREXIT? I'm one of those people who believe that a fair sized recession will occur and harm not only the UK, but the EU countries as well. The US will come in and sign a trade agreement of a massive size with the UK, and a number of surprising changes will occur with relations between the US and the UK.
Brits leaving the UK for Europe? I believe in the end....at least a million Brits will pack up and leave. But if you give this crowd a decade.....more than half of them will eventually return to the UK.
For theatrics? It's a five-star opera, and you have to admire the various characters involved, and how much anger this generated.
So a year or two after the exit, and normalcy has returned.....does this suggest that other countries may follow the UK 'exit'? That's the real question to ask.
Yep, it's not even a five-percent chance.
The EU doesn't care, and the leadership of France and Germany believe that the system is rigged up enough that the UK simply won't exit. Delay after delay, in their mind.....will eventually lead to BREXIT collapsing and bring the crowd back.
What happens when Johnson rigs the system to deliver a hard BREXIT? I'm one of those people who believe that a fair sized recession will occur and harm not only the UK, but the EU countries as well. The US will come in and sign a trade agreement of a massive size with the UK, and a number of surprising changes will occur with relations between the US and the UK.
Brits leaving the UK for Europe? I believe in the end....at least a million Brits will pack up and leave. But if you give this crowd a decade.....more than half of them will eventually return to the UK.
For theatrics? It's a five-star opera, and you have to admire the various characters involved, and how much anger this generated.
So a year or two after the exit, and normalcy has returned.....does this suggest that other countries may follow the UK 'exit'? That's the real question to ask.
Sunday, August 18, 2019
Curious Story From Wiesbaden
I was out of the Wiesbaden area for the past week, and there was this curious event that occurred on Wednesday evening.....around 6:30 PM....where some 12-year-old kid (boy) encounters a lady down by the Platz der Deutschen Einheit (the center of Wiesbaden).
Cops are a bit careful to describe the encounter (the lady is mid-40s), and we are left to wonder about nationalities (the kid or the lady).
But there is some verbal argument that starts up, and the lady wallops the kid, knocking him to the ground. We are left to wonder about the stout nature of the older lady.....she might have been a hefty gal.
Then a 17-year-old gal enters the scene and joins in on the beating business....along with some older guy.
Yep, 12-year-old kid getting punched and kicked (while on the ground).
Cops get called. They arrive. The older guy has escaped, and observers ID the woman and girl involved in the assault on the kid.
Based on cops and their comments.....the kid does sustain some injuries from the assault. The topic that drove this? Totally unknown, and the cops are asking for witnesses to step forward.
Maybe the kid robbed the woman and girl. Maybe he was supposed to do something and told them them off. There's probably forty different ways of looking at this.
The thing that gets me.....this is some type of act that you just never saw around Wiesbaden over the past forty-odd years. Platz der Deutschen Einheit is the dividing line between the 'Westend' and the center of town.....with the Wesstend known to be a non-German part of town. This may be some type of pay-back for upsetting family relations.
Cops are a bit careful to describe the encounter (the lady is mid-40s), and we are left to wonder about nationalities (the kid or the lady).
But there is some verbal argument that starts up, and the lady wallops the kid, knocking him to the ground. We are left to wonder about the stout nature of the older lady.....she might have been a hefty gal.
Then a 17-year-old gal enters the scene and joins in on the beating business....along with some older guy.
Yep, 12-year-old kid getting punched and kicked (while on the ground).
Cops get called. They arrive. The older guy has escaped, and observers ID the woman and girl involved in the assault on the kid.
Based on cops and their comments.....the kid does sustain some injuries from the assault. The topic that drove this? Totally unknown, and the cops are asking for witnesses to step forward.
Maybe the kid robbed the woman and girl. Maybe he was supposed to do something and told them them off. There's probably forty different ways of looking at this.
The thing that gets me.....this is some type of act that you just never saw around Wiesbaden over the past forty-odd years. Platz der Deutschen Einheit is the dividing line between the 'Westend' and the center of town.....with the Wesstend known to be a non-German part of town. This may be some type of pay-back for upsetting family relations.
Saturday, August 17, 2019
Not Really Free
So yesterday, the Bahn railway folks and the German military came to an agreement for German soldiers to get free rail travel while in uniform.
However, this isn't 'free'.
The German military coughed up four million Euro.....per year.
The amusing thing which most journalists avoided discussing, was that prior to mid 1990s, it was free for German soldiers, with no fee attached.
Friday, August 16, 2019
Diesel Story
I noticed a five line story in the German news this morning on diesel cars.
So a private group went and asked Germans about buying habits. Right now....zero interest in buying new or used diesel cars.
Curiously, there is marginal buying interest in electrical or battery cars.
So virtually all interest is in gas or hybrids.
I'll go out on the limb and suggest that the trend continues for at least a decade. Unless you cross the line in development and build a car that gets 800 km, and recharges in 20 minutes....it'll simply be a no sale situation. Add onto it....added cost and battery replacement cost....there is no interest.
So a private group went and asked Germans about buying habits. Right now....zero interest in buying new or used diesel cars.
Curiously, there is marginal buying interest in electrical or battery cars.
So virtually all interest is in gas or hybrids.
I'll go out on the limb and suggest that the trend continues for at least a decade. Unless you cross the line in development and build a car that gets 800 km, and recharges in 20 minutes....it'll simply be a no sale situation. Add onto it....added cost and battery replacement cost....there is no interest.
Two Bahn Stories
First story, theres this political chatter of forcing the German national railway....to run a nightly sleeper car train from Berlin to Paris. Up until 2016, the Bahn ran several sleeper trains. Why the halt in 2016? The cabin business put the cost at X, and it simply wasn't profitable. Add to this...a flight from Munich to Hamburg...barely 80 minutes, was half the price of a cabin deal....for a first class airline seat.
Why force them back? Well, this comes from the Linke Party, and they suggest new French German relations. Odds of the return? Makes zero economic sense.
Second story, the Linke Party has also hyped up the idea of dumping first class travel on the Bahn.
Now, if you gaze around, most regional trains offer very few first class seat...maybe five percent of an overall train. Around Frankfurt? Probably 20 percent of trains offer first class seats. The positive? Its quiet in these cabins and managers work on projects while on their 45 minute ride.
Why the hype to dump first class? More overall seats.
Getting this dumped? Right now, zero percent chance. However, if a Green Party win in 2021...it might occur.
Tuesday, August 13, 2019
Giftzwerg?
This is a German word, that you might hear once or twice a week, and the book definition doesn't really give the word justice.
This is a person who is a 'pain-in-the-ass'. It could be a retiree, or some punk kid who is out of control, or some housewife who is continually on the husband's butt. It's a negative word, and I wouldn't use it in a German conversation accusing someone of being giftzwerg.....they'd take it the wrong way.
If you did try to literally translate it? Well.....'poison dwarf' is coming out of this. Typically, it'll mean someone that you really would prefer avoiding or having contact with.
Update. Where the word came from? In the 1960s, up NW West Germany....the British had their military folks from Scotland based in a town where fights often occurred, and the Scots were fairly short guys. Some German journalist wrote up a negative piece and used the word 'poison dwarf' and Germans liked the phrase.
Saturday, August 10, 2019
Decline in Exports?
The business analyst over at ARD (German public TV) brought up this twenty-line story this morning, and it might an indicator of a recession starting up.
The basic story....German products worth about 106-billion Euro were shipped in June (at least the German Federal Statistics Office says this).
Over a one-year period, that's eight-percent less (June 2018 results).
Decline? Biggest in three years.
Why? Well....it goes to BREXIT worries, China trade, and the US.
All one big negative report? No, that's the curious thing. They can show construction still continues at great numbers, and likely to continue (if you read through all the news of the past six months, there are lots of housing projects planned out).
The one industry that you should watch, which would be a big indicator of a recession trend....would be car manufacturing. If exports decline and internal German car purchases decline....car manufacturing will put some workers on furlough or lessen production values...then real recession chatter will start up.
The basic story....German products worth about 106-billion Euro were shipped in June (at least the German Federal Statistics Office says this).
Over a one-year period, that's eight-percent less (June 2018 results).
Decline? Biggest in three years.
Why? Well....it goes to BREXIT worries, China trade, and the US.
All one big negative report? No, that's the curious thing. They can show construction still continues at great numbers, and likely to continue (if you read through all the news of the past six months, there are lots of housing projects planned out).
The one industry that you should watch, which would be a big indicator of a recession trend....would be car manufacturing. If exports decline and internal German car purchases decline....car manufacturing will put some workers on furlough or lessen production values...then real recession chatter will start up.
Friday, August 9, 2019
FFTF Syndrome
Toward summer of 2020, I expect the first German kids to appear at physiological offices with their parents, and asking for mental help over something which will be called "Fridays For The Future-Syndrome" or FFTF-Syndrome for short. The climate change program will have taken serious effect with young Germans, with dire effects.
What this will concern are kids who have absorbed so much of the message, the theatrics, the coaching, and the propaganda.....that they believe it's too late, and the end is near.
In the first five or six cases (my humble opinion)....the doctors will be puzzled by this and taking the slow route. After an attempted suicide or two.....they will realize that they are dealing serious mental issues, and start discussing this with colleagues.
By the summer of 2021, at least three-hundred kids across Germany will be identified with FFTF-Syndrome, and some rehab program will be started. It'll be in this period where doctors are now discussing if this has developing into a cult-like organization and if there is some serious issues attached to the Friday group.
By the end of 2022....at least twenty kids will attempted suicide, and over five-hundred young Germans will be in some recovery unit or psychological profile with serious issues. And with this....some doctors will now begin to notice even some adults with the same issue. A movie will be made to explain the cult-like trance that people got into, and how to recognize the syndrome.
What this will concern are kids who have absorbed so much of the message, the theatrics, the coaching, and the propaganda.....that they believe it's too late, and the end is near.
In the first five or six cases (my humble opinion)....the doctors will be puzzled by this and taking the slow route. After an attempted suicide or two.....they will realize that they are dealing serious mental issues, and start discussing this with colleagues.
By the summer of 2021, at least three-hundred kids across Germany will be identified with FFTF-Syndrome, and some rehab program will be started. It'll be in this period where doctors are now discussing if this has developing into a cult-like organization and if there is some serious issues attached to the Friday group.
By the end of 2022....at least twenty kids will attempted suicide, and over five-hundred young Germans will be in some recovery unit or psychological profile with serious issues. And with this....some doctors will now begin to notice even some adults with the same issue. A movie will be made to explain the cult-like trance that people got into, and how to recognize the syndrome.
German Soldier Story
There's an interesting minor story that has been making it's way around Germany for three or four days. There's this German Army soldier (German-German, not Turkish-German) who went off on a vacation from the Marburg area to Turkey.
Somewhere in his trip....the young German started a selfie picture episode in a shopping district (Istiklal). Undercover cops (Turks) approached him and said 'forbidden' and asked him to delete the picture.
Well....he refused. So the Turks took him off to a Turkish jail. There, they asked again, and wanted him to just unlock his cellphone. Again, he refused. So he sat in jail for roughly 3 days.
Then he was brought in front of a judge, and released. Upon that moment.....he left Turkey.
His crime? It's hard to say, other than the undercover cops thought that he had their image on the camera. Maybe they wanted to impress upon him their authority. But if that was the case.....it became a serious tourist issue, where Germans again worry about their safety, if they were going to go and spend a week or two at some Turkish resort.
Somewhere in his trip....the young German started a selfie picture episode in a shopping district (Istiklal). Undercover cops (Turks) approached him and said 'forbidden' and asked him to delete the picture.
Well....he refused. So the Turks took him off to a Turkish jail. There, they asked again, and wanted him to just unlock his cellphone. Again, he refused. So he sat in jail for roughly 3 days.
Then he was brought in front of a judge, and released. Upon that moment.....he left Turkey.
His crime? It's hard to say, other than the undercover cops thought that he had their image on the camera. Maybe they wanted to impress upon him their authority. But if that was the case.....it became a serious tourist issue, where Germans again worry about their safety, if they were going to go and spend a week or two at some Turkish resort.
Analysis Over the Nightly German Public News
There are three elements to this analysis and essay: regional news, the ZDF presentation, and the ARD presentation.
So at 7:30 PM nightly....each region via the sub-public networks....will present a 30-minute regional news piece, which always concludes with weather.
If there was a major traffic accident (say multiple cars), then it might get a 30 to 60 second mention within the state or region.
Regional politics and commentary will usually figure into most evening news segments. One could say that it's reasonably balanced, and can be considered reliable.
So, to the ZDF news presentation (out of Mainz)....it normally will run at 9:45 PM. The segment will be 15 to 30 minutes, depending on how much they want to present.
The top two items of the evening news will be an in-depth piece and usually require three to eight minutes each. After that, the journalists with the hyped subjects will hand it off to the 2nd person....who shifts through roughly ten significant stories, and then returns to the starting 'anchor' for two or three ending pieces.
Politics? Live interview do occur on a regular basis, and the ZDF crew can be aggressive.
A save-the-world routine? This is probably where ZDF is different than ARD, and goes to a far extreme on various topics....trying to stress to you the viewer....that saving-the-world is their top priority. At the end of the piece....sports and weather will be the end-piece.
It's safe to also say that via facial expressions.....ZDF is maxing out on expressions almost nightly, while ARD journalists try hard to stay stoic in nature.
Finally, to ARD news (coming out of Hamburg). There are typically two segments (8:00 PM and 9:45 PM).
The 8:00 PM situation is written by journalists, but read by a 'reader'. Yes, the person is hired because they give a very good speech and presentation....not for their journalistic skill. So the guy or gal is stoic in appearance and avoiding eyebrow movement.
The 9:45 PM ARD presentation is a two-person situation. There'll usually be one big significant story which is run into serious detail (maybe up to six to eight minutes) and actually done by a journalist. Then it'll be handed to the 2nd person (always the 8:00 PM 'reader'), to tell a dozen-odd stories.
Toward the end, the original ARD journalist will get the last detail, and then the weather is thrown in.
Statistics can be skewed....but typically, most Germans watch the 8:00 PM 15-minute news piece for their 'ration' of news. On the positive side, it's simply the basic story, without any complicated angles to it (what you'd typically get on ZDF's version).
So at 7:30 PM nightly....each region via the sub-public networks....will present a 30-minute regional news piece, which always concludes with weather.
If there was a major traffic accident (say multiple cars), then it might get a 30 to 60 second mention within the state or region.
Regional politics and commentary will usually figure into most evening news segments. One could say that it's reasonably balanced, and can be considered reliable.
So, to the ZDF news presentation (out of Mainz)....it normally will run at 9:45 PM. The segment will be 15 to 30 minutes, depending on how much they want to present.
The top two items of the evening news will be an in-depth piece and usually require three to eight minutes each. After that, the journalists with the hyped subjects will hand it off to the 2nd person....who shifts through roughly ten significant stories, and then returns to the starting 'anchor' for two or three ending pieces.
Politics? Live interview do occur on a regular basis, and the ZDF crew can be aggressive.
A save-the-world routine? This is probably where ZDF is different than ARD, and goes to a far extreme on various topics....trying to stress to you the viewer....that saving-the-world is their top priority. At the end of the piece....sports and weather will be the end-piece.
It's safe to also say that via facial expressions.....ZDF is maxing out on expressions almost nightly, while ARD journalists try hard to stay stoic in nature.
Finally, to ARD news (coming out of Hamburg). There are typically two segments (8:00 PM and 9:45 PM).
The 8:00 PM situation is written by journalists, but read by a 'reader'. Yes, the person is hired because they give a very good speech and presentation....not for their journalistic skill. So the guy or gal is stoic in appearance and avoiding eyebrow movement.
The 9:45 PM ARD presentation is a two-person situation. There'll usually be one big significant story which is run into serious detail (maybe up to six to eight minutes) and actually done by a journalist. Then it'll be handed to the 2nd person (always the 8:00 PM 'reader'), to tell a dozen-odd stories.
Toward the end, the original ARD journalist will get the last detail, and then the weather is thrown in.
Statistics can be skewed....but typically, most Germans watch the 8:00 PM 15-minute news piece for their 'ration' of news. On the positive side, it's simply the basic story, without any complicated angles to it (what you'd typically get on ZDF's version).
A Discussion Over Dissent
There's an interesting piece over at N-TV (German commercial news network) this morning, and it ought to generate some commentary by Germans.
Around four years ago.....a Chinese well known artist got into some trouble in China....and Germany came up to offer him asylum.
The artist? Ai Weiwei .
So Weiwei did an interview with Die Welt, and it's a curious thing over what he said.
He lives in Berlin....the culture-capital of Germany, and widely advertised as diverse.
So his comment is: "Germany is not an open society. It's a society that wants to be open, but above all protects itself. There is little room for open debate, hardly any respect for dissenting voices."
And with that, he announced that he and his family are leaving Berlin.
The reality here.....there is a particular view that intellectuals in Germany will attach to....particularly within the news profession, and once accomplished.....there is no more open debate. The idea that a topic can have two or more dividing points? It's rare in German society that you find such a topic.
Outsiders probably come to view this point early on, and just accept it as part of the German culture. Why argue with a German who become intensely attached to a position.
Where does Weiwei go next? I might take a guess that some art institute.....somewhere in Europe will offer up a job. Maybe in Switzerland, or Czech.
An argument over the lacking open society? No....Germans would tell you that debate is not required because they are so open....there just isn't any dissent.
Around four years ago.....a Chinese well known artist got into some trouble in China....and Germany came up to offer him asylum.
The artist? Ai Weiwei .
So Weiwei did an interview with Die Welt, and it's a curious thing over what he said.
He lives in Berlin....the culture-capital of Germany, and widely advertised as diverse.
So his comment is: "Germany is not an open society. It's a society that wants to be open, but above all protects itself. There is little room for open debate, hardly any respect for dissenting voices."
And with that, he announced that he and his family are leaving Berlin.
The reality here.....there is a particular view that intellectuals in Germany will attach to....particularly within the news profession, and once accomplished.....there is no more open debate. The idea that a topic can have two or more dividing points? It's rare in German society that you find such a topic.
Outsiders probably come to view this point early on, and just accept it as part of the German culture. Why argue with a German who become intensely attached to a position.
Where does Weiwei go next? I might take a guess that some art institute.....somewhere in Europe will offer up a job. Maybe in Switzerland, or Czech.
An argument over the lacking open society? No....Germans would tell you that debate is not required because they are so open....there just isn't any dissent.
'Tempo 40' Program
One of those cities in Germany that had the diesel car ban in discussion stage....was Stuttgart. To be honest, there's a fair amount of jobs located within Stuttgart, which lead to employees who simply don't want to live in the city, or it's shadow....so over the decades, they'd moved out into suburbs and towns way beyond the city limits, and diesel cars became part of their solution to getting to work each day.
The Green Party in Stuttgart eventually came to this alternate idea instead of banning diesel cars, which involved innovation and traffic management. This week, it's being openly discussed.
The basic concept? The speed limit in Stuttgart (on the regular streets and roads) will be set at 40 kph (instead of the norm throughout Germany of 50 kph).....you'd basically be driving 6 mph slower. Tied into this idea, the lights and traffic patterns would be set to allow continuous traffic, with less 'stop-and-go' situations.
How much less on nitrogen oxide? Scientifically, it's not factual, or proven yet.
However, added to this....the older model diesel cars (more than 10 years old) in the category of Euro-5 types....would be banned by mid-part of 2020 in Stuttgart.
So the evidence of the Temp 40 program might demonstrate enough of a change to collapse this entire argument over diesel cars? No one says much over that, but you'd have to assume that something positive will come out of this idea.
For anyone over the last decade who has had to deal with German traffic patterns.....rush-hour traffic with stop and go situations.....has been a major pain. Yesterday, I had to drive into Wiesbaden around 8 AM, and found myself shocked that I'd get five to six lights in a row set to green. To reach my destination.....roughly 20 km.....I stopped only four times. Maybe this idea of revolutionizing traffic patterns has already been implemented in some areas.
The Green Party in Stuttgart eventually came to this alternate idea instead of banning diesel cars, which involved innovation and traffic management. This week, it's being openly discussed.
The basic concept? The speed limit in Stuttgart (on the regular streets and roads) will be set at 40 kph (instead of the norm throughout Germany of 50 kph).....you'd basically be driving 6 mph slower. Tied into this idea, the lights and traffic patterns would be set to allow continuous traffic, with less 'stop-and-go' situations.
How much less on nitrogen oxide? Scientifically, it's not factual, or proven yet.
However, added to this....the older model diesel cars (more than 10 years old) in the category of Euro-5 types....would be banned by mid-part of 2020 in Stuttgart.
So the evidence of the Temp 40 program might demonstrate enough of a change to collapse this entire argument over diesel cars? No one says much over that, but you'd have to assume that something positive will come out of this idea.
For anyone over the last decade who has had to deal with German traffic patterns.....rush-hour traffic with stop and go situations.....has been a major pain. Yesterday, I had to drive into Wiesbaden around 8 AM, and found myself shocked that I'd get five to six lights in a row set to green. To reach my destination.....roughly 20 km.....I stopped only four times. Maybe this idea of revolutionizing traffic patterns has already been implemented in some areas.
Chatter Over US Troops Leaving Germany
Various comments have been laid down since President Trump arrived on the scene 2.5 years ago, and there's supposed to be a meeting between him and Merkel (late August), and some suggest that another 'card' will be put down over the defense contribution business.
How I think this will play out?
In early November, BREXIT is supposed to occur (if Johnson gets his wish). This is still questionable, and various parties will attempt to halt the exit unless there is a treaty.
I think that once BREXIT has occurred, the US will arrive and start both trade and defense talks, with the aim of arranging for some of these closing British bases in the UK.....to be new sites for US Army and Air Force to move into, and out of Germany.
The end-result will be some some contingent (probably in the 3,000 range) to be put into Poland, and the remainder to be moved into UK bases over the next three years.
What US installations might be left in Germany? That's a curious question. There may be no US facilities left. There might be Ramstein left by itself (with the new hospital being built there). EUCOM Headquarters might even be left there.
The lingering question will be.....how did the Germans arrive at the point of this stupid military budget issue, and who really pushed the lower number for all those years? Merkel? Or was this always the agenda of the SPD to press on the lower budget?
How I think this will play out?
In early November, BREXIT is supposed to occur (if Johnson gets his wish). This is still questionable, and various parties will attempt to halt the exit unless there is a treaty.
I think that once BREXIT has occurred, the US will arrive and start both trade and defense talks, with the aim of arranging for some of these closing British bases in the UK.....to be new sites for US Army and Air Force to move into, and out of Germany.
The end-result will be some some contingent (probably in the 3,000 range) to be put into Poland, and the remainder to be moved into UK bases over the next three years.
What US installations might be left in Germany? That's a curious question. There may be no US facilities left. There might be Ramstein left by itself (with the new hospital being built there). EUCOM Headquarters might even be left there.
The lingering question will be.....how did the Germans arrive at the point of this stupid military budget issue, and who really pushed the lower number for all those years? Merkel? Or was this always the agenda of the SPD to press on the lower budget?
Thursday, August 8, 2019
Political Chatter
It got dragged out as a top five topic today in Germany.....the SPD Party figure (Rheinland Pfalz SPD Party chief), Malu Dreyer, has said that she doesn't see an issue with the SPD Party in the future....to have coalitions or deals with the Linke Party.
For those Americans who aren't familiar with the Linke Party.....they are the remnants of the former Communist Party, and kinda rebuilt over the past decade into leaning-far-to-the-left political party.
About five years ago, this topic got brought up within the SPD, and they quickly discovered that around half of the membership really didn't like the idea or where this was going to go. I just don't think much has changed over the past five years.
Why bring this up now? 2021 is not that far away, and some folks envision that the Greens will take enough votes to win, over the CDU, and that the coalition will end being the Greens-SPD-Linke Party. If this were to come up (anticipating the SPD will get around 14-to-15 percent of the vote....how would the internal voting of the party members envision this? I would take a guess that 30 to 50 percent will say no. If it did pass....it'd be a marginal pass, and this group would likely vacate the SPD over the next year or two. It's anyone's guess which party they would gravitate over to.
Creating a bigger and more long-term problem for the SPD folks? Maybe.
For those Americans who aren't familiar with the Linke Party.....they are the remnants of the former Communist Party, and kinda rebuilt over the past decade into leaning-far-to-the-left political party.
About five years ago, this topic got brought up within the SPD, and they quickly discovered that around half of the membership really didn't like the idea or where this was going to go. I just don't think much has changed over the past five years.
Why bring this up now? 2021 is not that far away, and some folks envision that the Greens will take enough votes to win, over the CDU, and that the coalition will end being the Greens-SPD-Linke Party. If this were to come up (anticipating the SPD will get around 14-to-15 percent of the vote....how would the internal voting of the party members envision this? I would take a guess that 30 to 50 percent will say no. If it did pass....it'd be a marginal pass, and this group would likely vacate the SPD over the next year or two. It's anyone's guess which party they would gravitate over to.
Creating a bigger and more long-term problem for the SPD folks? Maybe.
CO2 Tax Chatter in Germany
Lately, if you follow German news....there's been a lot of chatter about a CO2 tax. The pro-environmental folks are hyped up about this and some folks were speculating that by December....it would happen.
Well....if you opened up Focus this morning (the German news magazine).....it's a curious twist to the CO2 tax idea.
Some tax experts went and analyzed the concept of a CO2 tax.
What they say is that the state (the federal folks in Berlin) can't invent a new tax like this, unless they rewrote the Constitution.
Taxes, you see.....MUST fit into existing tax categories. This refers to income tax, car tax, VAT tax, dog tax, etc. There is NO category that fits for CO2.
What'll happen now? Well, you have basically two directions:
1. You have to go and rewrite the tax deal in the Constitution. It's not impossible or that difficult. For those curious about it.....Germans don't make it a five-star once in a lifetime episode to change the Constitution. However, this will be openly discussed, and there's probably over a hundred questions that the public would ask about this change to the Constitution. I'm not that confident that Merkel and the coalition government really want to admit certain things about the tax.
2. Move forward and pretend it doesn't matter. Just keep saying that it'll all work out and pat each other on the back once accomplished. Then on day one.....some legal team will challenge it to the German Supreme Court, and find in twelve months that it was NOT constitutional. Then they'd throw it out.
If you look around, there just aren't that many CDU/CSU folks, or FDP folks....who seem to be positive about the CO2 tax. The Greens and Linke Party seem super-positive, and about half of the SPD seem to be marginally pleased about the tax. I think the Merkel plan will be to blast away and not cover the Constitutional part of this, and have the court dump it in 12 months.
Well....if you opened up Focus this morning (the German news magazine).....it's a curious twist to the CO2 tax idea.
Some tax experts went and analyzed the concept of a CO2 tax.
What they say is that the state (the federal folks in Berlin) can't invent a new tax like this, unless they rewrote the Constitution.
Taxes, you see.....MUST fit into existing tax categories. This refers to income tax, car tax, VAT tax, dog tax, etc. There is NO category that fits for CO2.
What'll happen now? Well, you have basically two directions:
1. You have to go and rewrite the tax deal in the Constitution. It's not impossible or that difficult. For those curious about it.....Germans don't make it a five-star once in a lifetime episode to change the Constitution. However, this will be openly discussed, and there's probably over a hundred questions that the public would ask about this change to the Constitution. I'm not that confident that Merkel and the coalition government really want to admit certain things about the tax.
2. Move forward and pretend it doesn't matter. Just keep saying that it'll all work out and pat each other on the back once accomplished. Then on day one.....some legal team will challenge it to the German Supreme Court, and find in twelve months that it was NOT constitutional. Then they'd throw it out.
If you look around, there just aren't that many CDU/CSU folks, or FDP folks....who seem to be positive about the CO2 tax. The Greens and Linke Party seem super-positive, and about half of the SPD seem to be marginally pleased about the tax. I think the Merkel plan will be to blast away and not cover the Constitutional part of this, and have the court dump it in 12 months.
The German Pensioners Who Live Beyond the Border
It's an interesting statistic that came out today.....241,500 Germans live beyond the borders of Germany in retirement. Their pensions are sent monthly.....beyond Germany.
24,000 of them live in the US. Spain has roughly 21,000. And France has almost 18,000.
Why so many pensioners living beyond the border? You have a fair number of Germans who worked hard, but retired with a pension of 900 to 1200 Euro, and no secondary deal out there (like an IRA or special retirement account). To attempt to survive in Germany off the marginal pension? It's a problem.
So these people are carefully looking at the options, and trying squeeze out better living conditions for less money.
The country on the 'trend-line' right now? Bulgaria. Over the past year or two, if you look at what journalists hype.....the trend is growing there (not leaps and bounds, but obviously more than the top three or four countries).
Focus (the magazine) has a good article covering this, and I would recommend it as a reading item.
24,000 of them live in the US. Spain has roughly 21,000. And France has almost 18,000.
Why so many pensioners living beyond the border? You have a fair number of Germans who worked hard, but retired with a pension of 900 to 1200 Euro, and no secondary deal out there (like an IRA or special retirement account). To attempt to survive in Germany off the marginal pension? It's a problem.
So these people are carefully looking at the options, and trying squeeze out better living conditions for less money.
The country on the 'trend-line' right now? Bulgaria. Over the past year or two, if you look at what journalists hype.....the trend is growing there (not leaps and bounds, but obviously more than the top three or four countries).
Focus (the magazine) has a good article covering this, and I would recommend it as a reading item.
Wednesday, August 7, 2019
VAT Short Discussion
Around two decades ago, I sat and tried to really understand the German VAT (the value-added-tax, or sales tax). The more that the German I conversed with.....explained....the more difficult the VAT seemed.
Basically, all simple food items (fruit, vegetables, meat, etc) is supposed to be 7-percent VAT. The 'fine' items or stuff that you really didn't need.....were set at 19-percent VAT.
Regular water and milk products? Seven-percent. Just about everything else, including orange juice, was 19-percent.
Soy milk? 19-percent.
Are items readily identified in the grocery stores along the 7 or 19 percent level? No.
Should you even engage on this topic and try to understand the 'game'? I would suggest that you just dismiss it and let it lay there. Yes, it will appear on your grocery receipt, but you might be shocked how you picked up some item, thinking it was 7-percent.....when it wasn't.
Basically, all simple food items (fruit, vegetables, meat, etc) is supposed to be 7-percent VAT. The 'fine' items or stuff that you really didn't need.....were set at 19-percent VAT.
Regular water and milk products? Seven-percent. Just about everything else, including orange juice, was 19-percent.
Soy milk? 19-percent.
Are items readily identified in the grocery stores along the 7 or 19 percent level? No.
Should you even engage on this topic and try to understand the 'game'? I would suggest that you just dismiss it and let it lay there. Yes, it will appear on your grocery receipt, but you might be shocked how you picked up some item, thinking it was 7-percent.....when it wasn't.
20 September Problem?
The German kids running the 'Fridays for the Future' business.....are now talking about a massive all-day strike on 20 September (a Friday about six weeks away). Oddly enough, several adult organizations, political parties, etc....are going to support this.
Likely to create traffic chaos and tensions? If the rumor is true that it'll start some negativity brewing about the group and their agenda.
If the strike is successful? Well, I would go and suggest that additional strikes might be on the agenda and planned later for November and December.
The problem for the national government (the CDU-SPD coalition that Merkel manages)....they really don't have some 'arm' to use on the kids or this political agenda being pushed. You'd have to and strong-arm the kids back into Friday afternoon school events, and so far....that has marginally been seen.
So you might want to plan your calendar a bit and be prepared for traffic issue on the 20th, if you live in Germany.
Likely to create traffic chaos and tensions? If the rumor is true that it'll start some negativity brewing about the group and their agenda.
If the strike is successful? Well, I would go and suggest that additional strikes might be on the agenda and planned later for November and December.
The problem for the national government (the CDU-SPD coalition that Merkel manages)....they really don't have some 'arm' to use on the kids or this political agenda being pushed. You'd have to and strong-arm the kids back into Friday afternoon school events, and so far....that has marginally been seen.
So you might want to plan your calendar a bit and be prepared for traffic issue on the 20th, if you live in Germany.
Sweden and the 'Strike'
Daily now, I get a five to ten minute dose of Swedish reality from the YouTube channel of Sanity 4 Sweden. The guy is a direct and blunt, but he is entertaining.
Today, the topic was Afghan gentlemen in Swedish who are on some type of 'strike'.....angry over delayed visas. So some leftist party political figure came out and said what the guys need is entertainment. She didn't really specify what type of entertainment.....that they needed something positive to focus upon.
I sat there for a minute and thought about it. What ought to happen in Sweden....is some guy or gal ought to introduce Shakespeare to the Afghan guys, and bring them into a theater to produce King Lear, Macbeth, or Hamlet.
But the more you think about this, and putting 12 Afghan guys up to practicing the dozen odd parts of King Lear....it would mean that you'd have to discuss the character, the plot, why people do stupid things, and decision-making.
It makes perfect sense. The odds of this happening? Zero.
Today, the topic was Afghan gentlemen in Swedish who are on some type of 'strike'.....angry over delayed visas. So some leftist party political figure came out and said what the guys need is entertainment. She didn't really specify what type of entertainment.....that they needed something positive to focus upon.
I sat there for a minute and thought about it. What ought to happen in Sweden....is some guy or gal ought to introduce Shakespeare to the Afghan guys, and bring them into a theater to produce King Lear, Macbeth, or Hamlet.
But the more you think about this, and putting 12 Afghan guys up to practicing the dozen odd parts of King Lear....it would mean that you'd have to discuss the character, the plot, why people do stupid things, and decision-making.
It makes perfect sense. The odds of this happening? Zero.
Meat Tax Up?
This is a five-line story from this morning, which is a bit amusing.
So when you go and buy meat at the butcher-shop or grocery.....the sales tax is 7-percent.
On all other products (except milk), it's 19-percent. Oatmeal, macaroni, peanut butter.....all 19-percent.
So the agricultural folks within the Green and SPD Parties.....want meat shifted to 19-percent.
What would they do with the extra tax revenue? The claim is.....animal welfare. How this would work, is unknown. One might guess that a farmer would report his herd size each year, and there would be a government check to arrive.
Would people just accept the higher tax? Nothing says otherwise.
But doesn't this invite more regulation? That's probably the long-term problem. The vegan crowd has a lot of pull now within both the SPD and Green Parties, and one might suspect that there is going to be a hook here.....to drive meat prices up to a point, where people have to think about the amount of meat they eat.
So when you go and buy meat at the butcher-shop or grocery.....the sales tax is 7-percent.
On all other products (except milk), it's 19-percent. Oatmeal, macaroni, peanut butter.....all 19-percent.
So the agricultural folks within the Green and SPD Parties.....want meat shifted to 19-percent.
What would they do with the extra tax revenue? The claim is.....animal welfare. How this would work, is unknown. One might guess that a farmer would report his herd size each year, and there would be a government check to arrive.
Would people just accept the higher tax? Nothing says otherwise.
But doesn't this invite more regulation? That's probably the long-term problem. The vegan crowd has a lot of pull now within both the SPD and Green Parties, and one might suspect that there is going to be a hook here.....to drive meat prices up to a point, where people have to think about the amount of meat they eat.
Tuesday, August 6, 2019
This 2006 World Cup Money Chatter
If you watched German news last night from either public network, the topic of the 2006 World Cup came up as a massive story. Rather than tell the long drawn long 'saga'.....I'll limit this to 30 lines.
So back in the 2002 period, a number of countries were competing for the World Cup soccer games of 2006. It was fairly well known to the sports journalists that this 'club' or group that was responsible for selecting the country.....were open to bribes (into the hundreds of thousands of dollars/Euro).
So the Germans wanted the 2006 games badly, and a ranking member of the establishment sat down and figured out the cost level (in the range of six-million Euro). The guy? Franz Beckenbaurer. Yes, you've probably heard of him as a big-name player, and later a big-name coach. Franz was heading the German group to bring the games into Germany.
To make this deal happen....Franz needed six-million Euro. And he couldn't really come up with the money in an official way (via his group, or a bank).
So Franz apparently went to a sports shoe company based in Germany (Adidas). They arranged for the money to go over to Franz, and he arranged for the payment to the judges.....at least that's the way that the story is told.
Down the path....after the games were rewarded, Franz found another way for the German group heading the games.....to pay Adidas the money back. No one says anything about interest.
Sports journalists have been bumbling around on this story for a decade. There were bits and pieces that came out, and the Swiss folks have assembled this for a court case. Those to be charged? Three ranking members of the DFB (the German national football organization).....not Franz though (at least not yet).
Is there a time-limit? That's part of this legal business....they would need to conclude this by roughly 2022/2023. Will the guys go to jail? No one says much about that part. If guilty, there's probably a fine.
So what is the bigger part of this whole discussion? As you advance toward the World Cup games for the next thirty years....there's virtually zero chance that the games will be chased after by Germany, and if they do chase after them....there can be no bribes. So the odds of getting the World Cup games again? I would suggest zero. Maybe in thirty years, people will have forgotten this, and gotten back into bribes once again.
I ask one single odd question.....did anyone lose money on this? No, that's the funny thing about this deal. Adidas made money off the games in Germany, and there appears to be no one profiting from the DFB (at least not yet). So other than bribes.....that's really the whole negative here? Yes.
And this took five minutes at the beginning of the 9:45 PM news last night.....as the lead story? Yes.
So you'd expect that Germans are all hyped up about this? No. I suspect if you walked into a pub and brought the topic up.....roughly 90-percent of German guys know the story, and just laugh. Without the bribe, the 2006 games would NEVER have been in Germany. Then they start laughing over the fact that almost 17 years have passed since the money went from one hand, to another. Then they laugh over the news journalists trying to pass this as a top number one story of the day.
That's it....a short and simple story, without an end.
So back in the 2002 period, a number of countries were competing for the World Cup soccer games of 2006. It was fairly well known to the sports journalists that this 'club' or group that was responsible for selecting the country.....were open to bribes (into the hundreds of thousands of dollars/Euro).
So the Germans wanted the 2006 games badly, and a ranking member of the establishment sat down and figured out the cost level (in the range of six-million Euro). The guy? Franz Beckenbaurer. Yes, you've probably heard of him as a big-name player, and later a big-name coach. Franz was heading the German group to bring the games into Germany.
To make this deal happen....Franz needed six-million Euro. And he couldn't really come up with the money in an official way (via his group, or a bank).
So Franz apparently went to a sports shoe company based in Germany (Adidas). They arranged for the money to go over to Franz, and he arranged for the payment to the judges.....at least that's the way that the story is told.
Down the path....after the games were rewarded, Franz found another way for the German group heading the games.....to pay Adidas the money back. No one says anything about interest.
Sports journalists have been bumbling around on this story for a decade. There were bits and pieces that came out, and the Swiss folks have assembled this for a court case. Those to be charged? Three ranking members of the DFB (the German national football organization).....not Franz though (at least not yet).
Is there a time-limit? That's part of this legal business....they would need to conclude this by roughly 2022/2023. Will the guys go to jail? No one says much about that part. If guilty, there's probably a fine.
So what is the bigger part of this whole discussion? As you advance toward the World Cup games for the next thirty years....there's virtually zero chance that the games will be chased after by Germany, and if they do chase after them....there can be no bribes. So the odds of getting the World Cup games again? I would suggest zero. Maybe in thirty years, people will have forgotten this, and gotten back into bribes once again.
I ask one single odd question.....did anyone lose money on this? No, that's the funny thing about this deal. Adidas made money off the games in Germany, and there appears to be no one profiting from the DFB (at least not yet). So other than bribes.....that's really the whole negative here? Yes.
And this took five minutes at the beginning of the 9:45 PM news last night.....as the lead story? Yes.
So you'd expect that Germans are all hyped up about this? No. I suspect if you walked into a pub and brought the topic up.....roughly 90-percent of German guys know the story, and just laugh. Without the bribe, the 2006 games would NEVER have been in Germany. Then they start laughing over the fact that almost 17 years have passed since the money went from one hand, to another. Then they laugh over the news journalists trying to pass this as a top number one story of the day.
That's it....a short and simple story, without an end.
The Chinese Devaluing of Currency and Germany
So what does the devaluing game mean for Germany?
In simple terms....you have two central things to think about.
First, maybe they aren't the only country leaning this way, and you might come to see two....maybe even five or six countries out of Asia that go and play the devaluing game. All of the sudden, you'd have a wild 'poker-game' being played out.
But here's the second bigger issue....the Germans count on exporting their products, and this devaluing game would go and twist the pricing situation....making German products more expensive. So you would see a key part of the German economy (Asian trade) that would suddenly become a problem.
Recession? More than likely....with this only taking three to six months to develop.
Merkel and company sitting around.....worried about this? I'm guessing that they are talking to PhD economists and trying to figure some way to limit the devaluation game to just China. Even if that is the result.....Germany still gets some pain and suffering dumped on them.
In simple terms....you have two central things to think about.
First, maybe they aren't the only country leaning this way, and you might come to see two....maybe even five or six countries out of Asia that go and play the devaluing game. All of the sudden, you'd have a wild 'poker-game' being played out.
But here's the second bigger issue....the Germans count on exporting their products, and this devaluing game would go and twist the pricing situation....making German products more expensive. So you would see a key part of the German economy (Asian trade) that would suddenly become a problem.
Recession? More than likely....with this only taking three to six months to develop.
Merkel and company sitting around.....worried about this? I'm guessing that they are talking to PhD economists and trying to figure some way to limit the devaluation game to just China. Even if that is the result.....Germany still gets some pain and suffering dumped on them.
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