The business analyst over at ARD (German public TV) brought up this twenty-line story this morning, and it might an indicator of a recession starting up.
The basic story....German products worth about 106-billion Euro were shipped in June (at least the German Federal Statistics Office says this).
Over a one-year period, that's eight-percent less (June 2018 results).
Decline? Biggest in three years.
Why? Well....it goes to BREXIT worries, China trade, and the US.
All one big negative report? No, that's the curious thing. They can show construction still continues at great numbers, and likely to continue (if you read through all the news of the past six months, there are lots of housing projects planned out).
The one industry that you should watch, which would be a big indicator of a recession trend....would be car manufacturing. If exports decline and internal German car purchases decline....car manufacturing will put some workers on furlough or lessen production values...then real recession chatter will start up.
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