The 25-Percent Winner Scenario for the German Election?

 There is this scenario for the German September national election.....where the winner....might only get 25-percent of the national vote (the lowest of all time, since 1947).

How it'd work?  You work with the current unfortunate trend with the CDU Party (where in the last election....they won with 33-percent of the vote), and right now they are sliding from 30-percent point of a few weeks ago, to the present number of 27-percent (as of the weekend).  

Right now, I'd suggest that they might stumble another two points, and end up around 25-percent.

Second place?  Right now....the Greens 'own' it with 18-percent, but they've been on a marginal slide as well.

Third place?  The gainer in most polls?  The SPD folks with around 16-percent, and I might predict they are going to be fairly close to 20-percent by election day.

The other slight gainer?  The FDP.  Weeks ago....they were at 11-percent, and recently polling up near 13-percent.  I could see them gaining 1-to-2 points more....maybe up around 15-percent.

All of this puts the Merkel crew in a fairly weak position to form a new government.  You'd have to build the CDU-CSU 'win' around the SPD or Greens, with that not being enough for the 50-percent of votes necessary.....so the fourth member would be required....in the FDP.  Go figure the ministry positions, and it really becomes a mess.

If the FDP said it won't participate if you punish the non-vaccination crowd?  Well....you'd be stuck then with the Greens replacing them as members of the coalition.  Most of the ministry positions would be taking positions that the CDU voters wouldn't be thrill about.  

Weak government in the end?  More or less, if this scenario were to hold out and be the end result.