Political Chatter

 There was a curious piece that came up from N-TV reporting this morning....with a talk by the Linke Party Chancellor candidate....Dietmar Bartsch.

He thinks that the election will be putting several obstacles into place as the results are announced.  Why?

Well....this gets to the necessity of involving 3 to 4 parties to be in the coalition, and how the ministries will be divided up. 

Presently, I can see only two coalition scenarios: (1) SPD-Greens-Linke and (2) SPD-CDU-CSU-FDP.  

In the SPD-Green-Linke situation....the Linke will probably only get 6-percent of the vote, and this probably translates only to three minister positions.  My humble view is that this probably turns into a bigger mess to get a coalition.

In this scenario, Laschet (the big loser for the CDU) probably will try to include himself in the talks, and find that half the CDU executive council want him to resign as party 'boss'.  I also think the Bavarian CSU folks won't be easy to handle.  The FDP?  They will probably be demanding the Finance Ministry and Transportation Ministry jobs.  

Janine Wissler and Susanne Hennig-Wellsow (the co-chairs of the party) will get two of the minister positions, and Bodo Ramelow (Premier-President of Thuringia) will be the third.  What positions?  That's a key question.  

The Greens in the middle of this and fighting for their minister positions as well?  Yes.  

A lot of time and effort will be required....probably leading to three months of talks.

In the SPD-CDU-CSU-FDP situation, it'll be just as difficult.  

So the belief by Bartsch is that Merkel will still be around as Chancellor until the Christmas period.