This Story Over the Terrorist Attack Guy?

 Well....yeah, it's a bit stretched-out.

This guy was accepted into Germany in 2006, and lead a odd life.  Mental-health doctor...employed....no criminal behavior.  He was anti-Islam, and a general supporter of the AfD Party.

So, he had this passionate hobby....he helped other disgruntled Saudis leave, and enter Germany....especially females.

This got noticed by the Saudi government and they eventually wrote charges.

The Saudis pressed on getting him brought back to Saudi Arabia....with the Germans mostly declining this, and eventually saying it was a human rights things.

In the past year...the Saudis went up a notch....saying he was a 'threat'  (meaning he'd gotten into radical Islam in some way).  This warning to Germany?  Taken but not reacted upon.

None of this attack making sense?  I suspect the police will be shaking their heads because nothing over the 18 years suggests him being a threat.  

This Political Debate Chatter

 What one can say....is that both commercial and public TV went  as far as they could....to  ensure there's  only a political debate between the CDU-CSU (1st place in polling) and the SPD (3rd place in polling).  The desire to have the AfD and Greens debate?  Yeah, you can make that case.   BSW, Linke and FDP?  More or less  left out of the public viewing.

I suspect what they don't want is some 7-way debate,  where you have a rather confusing chat-session.

The fact that neither the Greens, the SPD,  or the CDU-CSU want to engage with the AfD folks? Yeah....that does stand out a good bit.

In the end, I suspect what you get is a 45-minute session between two moderators and one party.....repeated so that all seven get a  chance to explain their agenda.

The use of Twitter to get the agenda  out?  If I were a political party....I'd have a fresh new 3-minute conversation via Tik Tok and Twitter.

21 Dec 2024: Five German News Stories

 1. Magdeburg attack.  What can be said....Saudi guy (50) drove a rent car into a Christmas market last night....two dead (one a small child)...about 50 to 60 wounded. 

Background of the guy?  He left Saudi Arabia in the 1990s....studied mental health profession....been in Germany 18 years....had left the Islamic religion over 20 years ago....was anti-Islam....via social media pages, oddly enough, supported AfD Party.  

When the police approached the vehicle....box in the car found, was a explosive (failed to go off).  

The guy was employed....long-settled in the country, and everything about him indicated anti-Islam slant on life.  He had some type of reputation of helping Saudi women leave Saudi Arabia, and resettle in Germany.

I was actually in the Wiesbaden Christmas-market when I read the story on Twitter.  Most of the markets are 100-percent safe....with concrete blocks at each entry point and thick cable to prevent by any vehicle.  How they had security arranged at Magdeburg?   Unknown.

This affecting the election?  Well...AfD will talk  about this a good bit, and it might raise their votes by 3-percent (my perception)....they are currently at 19-percent.   It puts both the SPD and CDU-CSU in a position where they have to talk about failed-immigration.   

As for the slant of the guy being anti-Islam?  I'd suggest he had a mental-breakdown going on....maybe for a couple of years.

What is odd....in the past year, Saudi Arabia is said to have reached out to Germany and noted this guy wasn't 'safe' and should be taken as a threat (from WELT).  This story, I find a bit unusual.  How the story is told?  Well...in the past year....he accused Germany of taking anti-Saudi stances in not allowing residency to some incoming people  (his story, not the story of the gov't).  This in some  way....unsettled the guy.  

2.  VW deal being worked out.  Total of 35,000 employees to be cut.  Huge effect on industry and the economy.

3.  Lot of criticism brewing on how ARD/ZDF and RTL arranged the debate situation.....helps only CDU-CSU and SPD.  

4.  German Defense Minister says if a peace deal can be worked out in Ukraine....it's possible that German Army members end up as peace-keeper force.

5.  The Swiss want another vote....they had banned new construction of nuke energy a couple of years ago (after Fukushima).  

20 Dec 2024: Seven German News Stories

 1.  Interesting state story....from my region, Hessen.  Guy was pulled over....cops did the full routine, and  even asked to look at entire car (frisking in the mix).  Guy has a knife....one of those on the prohibited list.  Police confiscate it.  Not much is said over a traffic ticket....he may have avoided that issue.

Hours pass, and the guy ends up showing up at the police station....demanding his knife back.  Based on the description....I'd say he was under the influence of either booze or drugs.  Things got a bit 'peppy'....police end up with 'mace' and a baton being in the mix, and he got more charges of assault against the police.  

2.  BaMF, the German gov't agency that handles refugees....is saying they like this idea being discussed of giving Syrian families 4,000 Euro....if they pack up and return to Syria (leaving Germany).  

No one is saying the amount required, and it's a bad subject to bring up....in an election season.

3.  Some 'warning' going out.....for the general public NOT to apply for postal voting.  The word is....not enough time for the 'system' to handle the wave of postal applications to  vote in Feb's national election.

4.  Polling done....a majority of Germans now believe that after this Feb national election....there will not be a stable gov't.  Meaning?  A likely new collapse within two to three years.

I won't argue this point.  It is very likely.  You can suggest a CDU-CSU/SPD coalition or a CDU-CSU/Green coalition.....they both would run the same path.

5.  Here in my state of Hessen....they are considering for a test-period....allowing pharmacies to sell Cannabis (weed)....just in one region (Gross-Gerau).  

Pretty weird idea....but at least it'd be a pure product. Naturally, there's likely a tax in the middle of this.

6.  City of Fulda is filing an objection to the national Census conducted....saying the count for their city was 'wrong'.

As of the cut-off date for the Census....the city says on their books registered....they had 69,300.  Well....the Census count was around 4,600 LESS.  

So the city is asking for an explanation.  The problem I see....if the Census is wrong on this....how many other cities were wrong?

7.  ARD polling says new SPD position is at 14-percent (down a notch).  

TV Forum Chatter

Last night via ZDF's late night forum show....'Markus Lanz' (I typically don't watch it because it's so late)....they had a chat with Silke Müller, who is the director of the a school in lower Saxony (Waldschule Hatten).

So she had a pretty harsh chat about the state of schools in Germany.

 As she noted.....one out of five German kids  in school....have some kind of psychological problem, and need professional help.  

She noted around 60-percent of kids (12-to-19) get some regular dose of 'fake-news'. Then she noted around 40-percent of kids believe in some type of conspiracy theories.  

She added another six to eight statistical numbers.

Yeah....it was a pretty blunt chat.

I sat and paused over it....noting the psychological issue....thinking.  There's zero studies or polls to really prove the point, but it wouldn't shock me if you'd gone back to 1968 to 1978, and asked questions.....you might have had the same number....one in five.

We didn't have fake-news as a kid (1970s)....but we mostly talked about BS-TV shows with fake themes or bogus story-lines.  

Political Chatter

 It appears from ARD/ZDF and RTL TV....several debate 'forms' are going to exist for the election:

CDU-CSU versus SPD (2)

BSW versus FDP

So far, the Greens versus AfD is NOT going to occur, with Habeck demanding to be at the table with the CDU-CSU/SPD folks.

Chief question?  Would the ARD/ZDF folks run a hour-long debate with just the AfD, and repeat this with the Greens....alone?

Smaller parties in Germany this week.....tried to present a case to the Constitutional Court....over getting petitions signed....to get on the ballot.  They wanted more time, and the court said no.  What happens if there are only 10 total parties (instead of the typical 40 parties)?  Roughly 3-million votes in the mix which typically would NOT go to the 'big-boys'.

One odd campaign promise list from the AfD: Nuke power promised to come back.  Coal power given a reprieve. Hard-line on refugees.  Promise to return to the D-Mark (dumping the Euro).   

If you polled Germans on returning to the D-Mark?  It's probably 50-percent of the people over the age of 60 who would get hyped-up about this idea.  Much less so with Germans under the age of forty. AfD is the ONLY party discussing this idea.

19 Dec 2024: Four German News Stories

 1.  Göttingen (north of Frankfurt) story....35-year-old guy makes threats against a woman on the street (knife in hand)....she calls the police as she runs into her apartment.

Police arrive, and the crazed guy reacts....rushes at them with the knife....police shoot the guy dead.  

Police say the man and woman were not associates....no connection.  Appears like drugs or alcohol involved.

2.  265k Germans 'migrated-out' of Germany over the past year (N24 news)

3.  'Last Generation' activists now say.....a name-change is to occur shortly....as they try to improve their image.  There is also a hint that they will stop blocking roads/streets.

I'll just say....those Germans affected by traffic blockages....don't see the group in a friendly or positive way.

4.  Odd statistic from yesterday....German study says that taxi-drivers (as a profession) have the lowest level of Alzheimer's.  No real reason given, and more research will have to be conducted.

Question

 Does the format that ARD-ZDF and RTL TV...have for political debate for  the upcoming election.....seem to rig a outcome?

Well....the more you examine this....it is rigged.  The CDU-CSU candidate will ONLY debate the SPD candidate.  There is an effort to have the Green candidate debate the AfD candidate.....but Habeck is saying 'no-way'.

So I'll take this to analysis....saying that CDU-CSU, with the SPD Party....will take around 55-percent of the national vote  (being helped by the debate arrangement).  The SPD in this arranged deal....probably gets up around 25-percent of polling....dissolving the Green Party chances (probably dropping them to around 8-percent in the national vote).

Fair?  Well....some would argue that it's unfair.  My humble view  is that the news media realizes after 3.5 years of crappy coalition efforts....maybe having a CDU-CSU/SPD coalition would be better for everyone.

Adding to the mess?  The CSU 'boss' (Soder) has openly said....'no-way' to a partnership with the Green Party.

18 Dec 2024: Five German News Stories

 1.  INSA did a political polling.  The only change in the past ten days? AfD moved up a point (19-percent) and the CDU-CSU moved down a point (30-percent).  FDP is still at 4-percent. 

2.  Habeck of the Greens says that he WILL NOT debate in the ARD/ZDF debate  creation (against the AfD).....that he ought to be there with the  'big-boys' (meaning the CDU-CSU and SPD nominees.  

In addition...Weidel of AfD....says that since they are in 2nd place....it's  AfD who should be debating the CDU-CSU candidate.

Yeah....it's all fu*ked-up.

3. DB Cargo says they will be cutting manpower.

4.  School in Koln shutting down early for Xmas....over identification  of MonkeyPox going around.

5.  Strange nausea situation in the Semperoper symphony concert hall (Dresden). Doctors and ambulance crews called out. Affecting dozens of people.

Chatter

Just an odd 'demand' from Green Party's Habeck....he says VW ought to be able to build a electric car for 20,000 euros....then quoting him: “Your name is Volkswagen, not a luxury car.”

I thought over this.  I've sat in two E-cars (the Mini and E-Tron).....both were priced up in the 45k to 60k range. This was back in the 2019/2020 period.

The only rational way to get to a low-tech 20k Euro E-car?  Dump the options....basic radio.....no  AC.....no heated seats....and so on.

Would the 20k VW E-car interest me?  No.  I'm still not sold on the grid or cost factor of electricity.

17 Dec 2024: Four German News Stories

 1.  ARD/ZDF (the two public TV outlets) have decided that they will carry debates....however, they decided it will be CDU-CSU's candidate (Merz)  versus SPD's candidate (Scholz).  The second debate will be the Green's candidate (Habeck) versus AfD's Weidel. 

This got Habeck all disturbed.  He thinks it should him in the 1st debate.....a 3-way.

Only to point this....presently....in 2nd place is AfD, and logic should dictate CDU-CSU debating AfD.

Adding to the 'theater'....RTL has said they will offer up a debate on the 16th of Feb....with Merz and Scholz.

2.  Last night's 'Hard But Fair' (public TV open forum, live).....it was mostly a talk with guests from the CDU, FDP, SPD and Linke Party. Topic?  Their path to the future.

I lost interest about 20 minutes into it....moderator was doing a crappy job and not forcing real discussion.

3.  'Last Generation' member being sent off to five months in prison for blocking a road.

4.  Sweden criticizing German over the amount of electricity being 'shipped' over to Germany because of grid limitations.  

No-Confidence Vote Done

 Bundestag met.....had a lot of speeches, then voted.  The  government has officially 'crashed'.  

23 Feb 2025 is the national election day.

Presently, on polling....there is little doubt that the CDU-CSU will win...somewhere in the area of 30-to-34 percent.  

Second place is a question-mark....AfD, or SPD.

Whether the FDP, Linke or BSW gets a minimum of 5-percent....is a question-mark currently.

I suspect if you ask....more than three-quarters of the public wants a 'change'.

16 Dec 2024: Four German News Stories

 1.  Off the Sunday night public forum show from ARD's with Caren Miosga....Green Party guest Ricarda Lang. When asked about how the Green Party gets numbers back up in polling....Lang responds: "We have to treat people like adults again."

Polling presently?  Around 11-percent. 

The one odd suggestion brought up by the Greens.....having a 'citizen's retirement fun'....meaning if you took low-wage jobs all your life....they'd create tax revenue to ramp up your pension to some fair level.

2.  Renovation done on Hamburg to Berlin tracks.....ride can be accomplished now in less than 2 hours.

3.  Record year for apartment evictions in my local state of Hessen.

4.  Hamburg set up a total/absolute weapons ban on all stations and  on all buses/trains.  If the cops come up to you and ask for an ID and to frisk you.....you have no choice but to cooperate.  A knife on you?  Automatic 5,000 fine.  

I expect most cities  in Germany to have this rule by the end of 2025.

Small Political Party Problem

 While a lot of Germans mostly stick around to seven basic parties....in reality, there are around 30 to 40 parties functioning in Germany.  If you tested people....they might be able to list the top seven, and maybe three of the lesser parties. 

So last night night, the public TV folks got around to talking about a major problem for the Feb national election.

All of the parties....to get listed on the national ballot.....have about four weeks to present petitions to be listed.  Each of the 16 states has a mandate....get x-number of folks to sign it.....to get your party on the list.  Nationally,  you need around 30k signatures, but for example....in Bremen, you need 3,000 signatures for your party minimum.  Each  state has this number process....to get listed.

So there is a belief of the 45-odd parties that were in the last election....maybe half of them won't get the petitions signed.

The Pirate Party?  They probably will make it.

The Hip-Hop Party?  They probably won't make it.

The European Love  Party?  They probably won't make it.

The Garden Party?  Unlikely to make it.

So my question....from the four-million folks who might vote for a lesser party....if your party is not listed....will you stay home, or vote for a new group?

14 Dec 2024: Nine German News Stories

 1.  Interesting Italian law being drafted....if you have classified 'farm-land'....NO solar panels can be put on the soil.   Reason? Toxic stuff on the ground if the panel breaks.

I expect Germany to approve the same legislation within six months.

2.  Weather prediction for next 10 days in my region?  Overcast, extreme clouds, marginal wind.  Warming trend (presently 0 C)....by Wed....going to 9 C by next Thursday.  On solar and wind power generation?   Virtually....zero.

3.  N-TV piece.....German police using firearms for 2024....highest level in 41 years.  Record of 20 so  far...by mid-Dec.  Last year (2023)....total of ten cases.

Reason?  Varies.  A fair number of people are given the message to put the knife down and just fail to cooperate.  I'm not saying drug-use or alcohol-binges are the sole reason, but it contributes.

4.  IW did a study of cleaning crews across Germany....they say 91-percent are illegally in the country, and illegally hired.

5.  Next Romanian Presidential election....since they threw out the results of the last?

Well...I looked it up late yesterday.....It's set in March, but no day is noted.

To ensure the right-wing guy doesn't win?  Well....Tik Tok has been given orders to curtail political chatter.  Whether they can carry this out or not....unknown.  

If the right-wing (Călin Georgescu) guy wins again?  They'd probably have to disqualify the election once again.

6.  Candidate Habeck (Greens) calling for a new tax on ultra-wealtthy....to pay for renovation  on school buildings.  Hard to suggest effect if it were to pass....they might up-and-leave....taking their money with them.  Aimed at billionaires....not millionaires.

7.  I noted yesterday.....first mention of the US drone business (top news across all US networks) on a German news site (Focus).  Only took seven days for it to finally become active news here.

8. Porcelain manufacturer Rosenthal....closing it's factory in Germany.

Electricity Chatter

 For the past 10 days, we've had this odd weather pattern in the Rhine Valley region (Frankfuurt-Wiesbaden)....with almost no wind, and complete cloud cover or fog. So if you were on some solar power collection routine or getting power via wind-generators.....you were screwed (royally).

Today, Focus brought up a article....talking about the lack of power generation in Germany, and having to buy power from Norway/Sweden (at a HEFTY cost).

Yesterday morning (Friday)....in a one-hour period....the nation consumed 65 gigawatt hours of power, while only generating on its own....49 gigawatts of power.

Accusations of power companies cutting production from natural gas/coal-powered plants?  Well....there  are some accusations.....suggesting they intend to inflate lacking power.  Most companies deny the accusation.

All of this chatter leading to public frustration over the cost of power in Germany (the most expensive in Europe)?  Yes, and it's right at the election period....where new discussions have started up over bringing back nuke-power  (a CDU-CSU agenda item).  Five years ago....I would have said nuke-power would never come back....now? I'd wager some type of permission will be given.

Drone Rules in Germany (If You Were Curious)

 Unless you have a permit...drones cannot not fly above 120 meters (393 feet).  In a urbanized or controlled area, max altitude is 50 meters (164 feet).

Line-of-sight control is mandatory. 

If you have a drone over 11 pounds....it can't be flown at night....without permit.

Drones over 5 kilograms (11 pounds) may not be flown at night without a permit.

Insurance? Mandated.

Near a airport?  Forget about it.  You have to stay a minimum of 1 km away.

Flying around public places, industrial complexes, jails, or traffic routes?  No....banned.  Train stations? Nope....banned there too.  Nature areas?  Nope...banned there.

So these reports of drones today?  Whoever is behind it....has broken several laws....and will end up in jail.

13 Dec 2024: Two German News Stories (Extra)

 1.  Spiegel reports from Ramstein Air Base area (Germany) indicate presence on the evening of the 12th...of drones/UAPs/UFOs.  German police investigating.

(My humble view on all this drone/UAP BS?  Chinese tech...operated either by Chinese college students in the US, or the UK, or Germany, or Chinese soldiers who entered by some means.  No.....there are no aliens in this story developing)

I should add this fact too.....German police admit that it's not just the base that drones have been around...several industrial sites in the country (suggesting only in the Pfalz area so far)....have reported 'something' flying around.  Also, this drone stuff started around the 3/4th of December.

I asked my German wife.....what the hell could some drone get out of a recon of a German industrial site.  Her response....if this were the Bitburg Brewery....they could count pallets off yet-to-be-delivered beer.  Beyond that?  Nothing.

I postured myself on analysis.....if you had the right type of equipment on the drone....you could land it on some building....collect on cellphone/phone chatter, and get 'intelligence'.....with no one figuring out your drone sitting on the roof all day.

The German industrial sites mentioned so far?  Rheinmetall (Dusseldorf region, military vehicle production) and BASF (Mannheim, chemical production). 

2.  I watched an update off N-TV yesterday....got into a talk about lack of power in the past week over Germany...because of overcast sky, fog and lack of wind....solar and wind-power marginally producing enough for the grid. Because of this....they are buying 'extra' power from neighboring countries, at a higher cost.

So What If The Syrians And Ukrainians Return Home (Leaving Germany)?

 Well....the numbers are: Syrians....around 970k to 1-million (2024 numbers....not the half-million number I spoke recently about from early 2021), and the Ukrainians are around 1.1-million (summer 2024 numbers).  

This suddenly has been a hot topic....for 3 reasons: First, around 5,000 Syrians are employed in the medical field....as doctors and nurses. Second, through a study in late 2023....around 18-percent of the Ukrainian population work in Germany.  Third, most of the two-million total....took up residence in apartments (creating a mini-housing crisis over the past five years)....if they were to suddenly leave...what happens to the housing situation?

Do I believe all of the Syrians will return?  No.  If you were over age forty....there's a high probability that you will return home to  Syria.  But those in the age group of 18 to 30....I suspect most will  prefer to stick it out  in Germany.

With the Ukrainians?  It's hard to figure the rational to return....if peace were to finally arrive.  Those who sought and procured jobs in Germany....probably have a reason to stay.  Those who had lived in the eastern half of Ukraine....probably don't see the logic of returning (war-damage).

A sudden work-shortage in the future?  This is the biggest thing to discuss.  

Add to the discussion....it occurring in a recession period.

In the end....I suspect half of each group will return home.  

13 Dec 2024: Ten German News Stories

 1.  Talk going on in Hessen by school  authorities....that they would BAN cellphones in schools.   Some want it to be a fed-thing.....nation-wide.  

2.  Study by ADAC on punctuality of trains in German cities.  Frankfurt is ranked 'dead-last'.

3.  Hessen state gov't is talking about a truth-commission over Covid and actions taken in the period.

4. Court battle going on in Brandenburg....over a property which was owned by a Jewish family in the 1930s.  Current family owner....'received' the property 85 years ago.  Court is preparing to order current owners to return the property to the original Jewish  owners.

5.  IFW say no growth in Germany expected in 2025.

6.  N-TV chatter....FOUR out of TEN companies expect to do employee cuts in 2025.

7.  One of the features of ICE trains in Germany (the ultra-fast  rail system)....was a  food wagon.  You'd walk to the center of the train, and they had various drinks and some 'snack' food.  One of the bigger deals....draft beer.

Well...it was announced yesterday...starting January 2025....draft beer goes away.  You will only be able to buy bottled beer.

8.  The board of governors for public TV met yesterday.  That talk of a TV tax raise?  NO.  They voted and said the rate (currently at 18.36 Euro a month) stays at this rate until at least 2027.  ARD bosses?  Probably angry....they were expecting a raise in the tax (per home).

9.  Wednesday morning in my village (4k residents).....some gal about 2 blocks from me....had the door-bell to ring, and here stood some guy in a policeman jack...informing her that he was there to  'ensure' her house was secure.

Yep....fake-cop situation.

She followed him room-to-room, and didn't get suspicious until after he left....then calling the police....to confirm.

It's an odd problem that has developed over the past decade...either flashing a fake badge or wearing a jacket.

10. We have this odd draft law being discussed in the state of Hessen (where I live).  The topic?  They want to limit  you as a landlord with apartments to rent....a max of six months of being  'empty' before you have to rent the place (no choice).

Driving this?  They have a study where they figure in the whole state of Hessen...120,000 apartments per year....where it's empty past six months.

Why?  Varying reasons.  I know in our house....with the  two apartments....as the occupants leave....there's a minimum of four months tied to  renovation/upgrading the place. On the last occasion, yeah....we actually got to 5.5 months before the new occupant was given the key to move in.  When you go and line up the plumber, the wallpaper guy, the floor guy, etc.....it's  impossible to get these services arranged.

12 Dec 2024: Seven German News Stories

 1.  VW said yesterday.....it's looking at the idea of ONLY manufacturing the Golf model....in Mexico.

Naturally, this disturbed a lot of German employees.

Cost factor driving this? Yes.  Would a German buy a VW-Golf made in Mexico?  I have my doubts. 

2.  The Tuv-folks (the German authority who inspects cars for the gov't)....say they want a new rule....if a registered car is over ten years old....they want it inspected yearly.  Lot of folks got disturbed over this suggestion.

Typically, you take your car in every two years for the Tuv-inspection.  

Behind this....I think some car brands (I won't suggest the brands....just to say they are made beyond the border)....are crap by the tenth year of existence.

3.  As Syria settles, there's now a worry that if the half-million Syrians in Germany up-and-leave.....it'll harm the economy.  I've seen at least six references in the past 48 hours over this idea, via ZDF and ARD TV news reporting.

4.  Focus did a fairly big report over crack-use in Germany (exploding currently).  The big negative?  They discuss that synthetic substances of unknown quantity are being blended in.

5.  Of the promises being made (campaign-wise) from the Green Party....a 'credit' of some sort would be created for E-car charging.  How much?  Unknown.

What makes E-car charging a pain....Germans already pay the highest rate or electricity in the EU....so you'd have to invent a new tax (probably on gas cars).  They also are talking about a tax-credit if you bought a new E-car.

6.  2034 World Cup....to be in Saudi Arabia.

7.  70 river-freighters are 'trapped' because of the broke lock on the Mosel River.  Suggestion is that it'll be at least ten weeks before repairs are done. 

This No-Confidence Vote?

 Bundestag has scheduled now....for the 16th....the no-confidence vote.  Since the FDP was 'fired' from the coalition.....it appears 99-percent likely 'no' wins.

However, it is conceivable that some element (say the AfD Party)....might vote to continue the epic saga, with a minority gov't.  Odds of this?  I'm about at 2-percent confidence on this idea (it'd be really stupid).

Chancellor Scholz will give a speech....get the President of Germany to agree, and the vote occurs.

Polling?  Well....if you looked at the situation in spring of 2023....a majority of Germans wanted early voting.  This spring (2024)....some polling showed near 70-percent wanted a collapsed gov't.

Strongest divide?  The economy....it's an absolute recession in place.

Just switching leadership to fix the mess?  They need three things to occur....the US in some economical surge....the end to the Ukraine-Russia war....and natural gas returning to a Russian situation.  I would add....the car industry in Germany needs a miracle of sorts....to re-shuffle things.

11 Dec 2024: Eleven German News Stories

 1.  Just an odd thing I noticed off ARD news....past year has been a record on emergency room services used....12-million 'visits'.  So you can figure....one out of seven Germans had a visit of some type.  

2.  Shipping accident on the Mosel River.....will end up closing the passage for 4 months.  Apparently, a cargo ship rammed a lock gate.  

3.  Yesterday, a discussion started up in Germany....if Assad's 'henchmen' (the bad guys from Syria) might attempt to escape into Germany.  Yeah, it's an odd discussion.  

4.  German cops arrested a trio on Sunday....on terror planning charges.  What they say?

The three guys are a German-Lebanese pair of brothers (15 and 20 years old).....from Mannheim.  The third guy was a Turk from the Hochtaunus region..

What they were planning?  Either a Christmas  market attack, or a New Year's eve attack.

5.  RTL-TV did a poll.  SPD on political polling....up a point....to 17-percent....still in 3rd place behind the CDU-CSU and AfD.  Their poll had this odd feature....if you asked all CDU-CSU voters about Merz as the Chancellor candidate....almost 12-percent said 'no'.....they'd rather see Habeck from the Greens as the Chancellor.  

6.  What the hell is Disease 'X'?

Well....some kind of mysterious disease has started up in the Congo....400 with it, and 31 have died.  Some words from German TV discussion last night....some form of a flu or  malaria....that has mutated.  Fear is....it'll eventually get to Germany.  

7.  120 folks arrested in Berlin yesterday.....'Last Generation' protest.

At some point, some German glued themselves to a wheel of a delivery truck.  The rescue folks attempt  to get the person detached....failed....so they had to take the whole wheel off the truck and take the person to some hospital.

Yeah, I anticipate the judges involved in each case....to lean toward significant fines. 

8.  Germans have paid out one billion Euro for what is perceived as fake climate protection projects

Most of this went to projects in China.  This comes from German Institute for Economic Research.  Saw this report on ZDF-Frontal news program last night.  

9.  N-TV piece this AM.....saying best prediction for E-car registration in Germany by 2030....11-million total.  Way off from predictions by Merkel  gov't from six years ago.

10.  Chancellor Scholz suggested a VAT (sales tax) cut on food.  He's not saying a complete 100-percent cut....just of some type of cut (probably one-third).  There is a 7-percent VAT on some foods....while the bulk are taxed at 19-percent (presently).

11. So the EU started a talk yesterday to dump the mandate on NO gas/diesel new car sales after 2035.   Yeah....shocker.

So what they are talking about.....you could still make gas/diesel cars after 2035....if they ran on bio-fuels.

If you were Opel, VW, BMW or Audi?  You'd be mad as hell....how you got into spending a billion Euro each to get to the E-car level.

Big question?  Where will this bio-fuel come from?  Massive corn-crop required?  Go expect bio-fuel stock to massively take-off in the next five years.

A lot of disgruntled people? Yeah, I'd suggest this will linger a long time.

10 Dec 2024: Eight German News Stories

 1.  German gov't has suspended all asylum paperwork on Syrians, with the recent outcome of events in Syria.  No one is saying it's terminated....just that if Assad is gone....it might not be such a bad place anymore.

If you asked me  about Syrians in Germany for the past six to eight years....I'd suggest that those over the age of forty....probably will return.  Younger folks.....probably are more settled into Germany and prefer to stay.

A political topic for the election?  Maybe.

2. Fiat-Germany is offering the 500 series for 99 Euro a month (on lease).

3.  SAP-Germany says one in seven jobs are going away (termination).

4. Some huge drop in airline travel occurred throughout German airports in November.  Not a lot of explanation.

5.  Interesting Syrian statistic in Germany....near 5,000 doctors/nurses are working within the German system.   If they all leave...will create a massive 'hole'.

6.  Weinheim had a huge water-park.  Sunday....things caught on fire....so a good portion of park is 'gone'.

7.  VW union folks met with management yesterday.  Key quote by the union boss? "Car that normal people can afford."  He suggests that the models  are over-priced and  jacked-up with 'extras'.

On this....I would be totally in agreement.  There are probably 300 'extras' in my Audi A5 (2019-model).   VW ought to have two models of pretty basic cars....you just need heat, a radio, and some safety equipment.  You ought to be able to deliver such a model for 15k to 20k Euro.

My brother makes a big deal out of his GF's new SUV....where they actually have like 20 training modules online...each about 15 min to teach you X, Y and Z about all the features of the vehicle.  I can remember a early 1970s car that my dad bought....that had a max of 15 'features'.  

I hate to use the example....but Dacia (the Romanian  car) is a pretty stripped-down and simple vehicle....which you can typically find around 19k to 24k Euro.

8.  The Wacken-concert folks (held each summer in Germany) have procured the promise of 'Guns N Roses' band attending.....a BIG deal.  

When You Really Don't Want Poliitics

 I ended up at a Christmas concert in Wiesbaden last night....given by the German Army band (the Bundeswehr).  It was at the casino concert hall....a nifty  and historic location.

The negative of the evening?

They had to open it with the  Premier-President of Hessen giving a 'short' speech.  This went on for about 20 minutes, and it was painfully obvious....it was drafted in some political way (because of the upcoming election)....and NOT Christmas-related.

There ought to be rule for events like this.....you get 5 minutes to chat on something, then some guy/gal chases you of the stage.

A Little Internet Story

 I had dinner with a German couple last night, and the topic of cable/internet came up.

So they live deep in the Pfalz (the state).  Around 20 years ago, the Telekom folks came and gave marginally-high cable to each house in their village.  The speed is high enough to handle email but NOT streaming video.  There is a lag-time....so trying to do hotel reservations or airline arrangements....is  not practical.

I didn't say a lot.  My village....on the outskirts of Wiesbaden....had a Telekom crew come back in the late 1990s....to bring DSL-level speed.  The village even got the faster speed....over vast sections of Wiesbaden itself.  Things corrected themselves over the next decade locally.

So in the past 2 months....here's another crew in the village (Vodafone folks)....bringing even a faster level of fiber-optic cable to the whole village.  

Yet this couple sits and waits....for the day when they might deliver DSL-level speed.

This is brought up on TV news a good bit.  There are vast regions of Germany like this...still waiting.  There is some profitability angle to this....people willing to pay more for services.  

Just Odd ARD News Image

 Last night, I watched the ARD (public TV of Germany), and they provided video of the Macron-Trump meeting.

My TV is set to a normal color pattern (at least I thought so).

What was portrayed?  Trump in some shocking BRIGHT blue suit....ultra-blue, with a yellow tie.  Yeah, it stood out.

So this morning, I'm reading and viewing newspapers (some French, some US, some German) on coverage, and they all have this picture of Trump and Macron.  The suit.....just plain regular blue (what I would say is normal business suit blue).

Some ARD color filter?  Well.....to  suggest this would be saying something like 'fake-news'....but I've sat and viewed at least 20 fotos of the meeting from regular news coverage, and they all show some regular color, and NOT this ultra-blue color.

Just odd.

Explaining The Charges/Murder Involving An American Woman

 So, to the story.  Back in late June (the 29th)....an American woman (not military) was in the Kaiserslautern train station.  

At some point....some migrant guy (64 years old) decides to 'fondle' her butt in the station (I assume they are walking up a stairway).

The 20-year old American gal (probably a dependent)....reacts (based on the description.....some rough language).

I should note....this is mid-afternoon.

Between the two....a 'talk' starts up and it's not a pleasant thing.

The American then pulls out a knife.  No one says the size, but here....I assume it's not a 3-cm blade....but a real hoodlum-type of knife (the kind you'd carry in Memphis or Chicago).

At this point....she's ONLY making stabbing motions...to get the guy's attention.  

Whether the guy realized the threat or mess going on....is unknown.

He backs away, but then he's got one of her arms in some type of hold.

Then she swings the arm around with the knife....square into his chest.

Guy is dead.

She leaves asap, but decides later to come to the police station to identify herself.

Well...Friday, the prosecution has decided that there has to be charges done.  Bodily injury.  What the German law says?  If convicted....the max you can give is five years of prison, and/or a fine.

Court action?  No one said much on timing....I would assume by April, this would occur. 

If you asked me on the attention this will draw and conviction possibility?  Look....there's a high number of German women who've been sexually groped like this, and there's going to be public attention focused.....that the guy got what he deserved.  

The fact that he grabbed the arm of the gal and  intended to provoke her in some way?  That might be enough to change the outcome.

My best guess....a fine of 3,000 Euro and no more than 6 months in prison.  The knife being a central theme of the case, and how the German police are trying hard to lessen knife crimes?  Yeah, that will play a role. 

If she'd just slugged the guy....beating the crap out of him there in the train station?  Yeah, that might have been a better 'ending', but she probably would still up with a charge on that account.

Five Things

 1.  Will the collapse of the Assad gov't in Syria trigger a new refugee problem in Germany?

Just on my own analysis of this...with the UN saying the 2024 population is 25-million...I would imagine at least 2-to-3 million (mostly those with a Christian background) will exit, and the vast number will be heading to Germany.

Back in 2022, an accurate count came up from the German gov't....saying there were at that point....around 522k 'declared' Syrians in the country.  If you asked me about unannounced Syrians residing in Germany....there's probably another 20,000 who aren't registered and just staying with relatives.

Could the Germans handle that many?  If it were spaced out....say over a year or two....yes.  But if you said it was a million just within 90 days, it'd be a mess to deal with and handle accommodations. 

Politically 'hot' during an election campaign period?  YES. 

2.  'Klimaschönfärberei' was voted 2nd highest on invented words for 2024 in the German language.  

Meaning?  Well....it means climate-white-wash....where you as a company broadly talk about your company and how you achieved success with carbon savings.

Yeah, it's meant as a bogus or BS term....in a negative way.....mostly by German teenagers.  But the companies aren't stupid....if you convince the public on climate problems....it's simply a wise choice to say (as a company) that you helped to save the Earth.  

3.  ARD (public TV, Channel 1) did a poll...over top concern for politics in Germany.  The big hype?  The current economic trend, and the public generally said it's the worst situation in 15 years.

The poll also said....ONE in FIVE Germans are worried about losing their job, which is a bad sign for the election coming up.

If you were going to ask me of the parties.....who appears to have a better economic agenda presently to present, it's mostly the CDU-CSU folks (polling at 32 percent  presently).  Between now and mid-Feb....if people center on this economic problem....I'd say the CDU-CSU numbers get up around 35-to-36 percent of the vote....minimum.

4.  President Macron did a speech yesterday....saying he intends to stay in office until his term ends (May 2027).  

Personally, if you were looking for who follows the EU presidency after Van de Leyen....it's Macron.  

5.  It's just an odd thing you notice over the past two weeks....with Trump in Paris meeting up with Macron yesterday.  

A year or two ago...lot of grumbling/negative talk over Trump in the public news. In the past ten days...the grumbling/criticism has ended.  You just see a lot of central themes (working with the US).

The fact that they (Europe itself) has serious economic woes, and need the US business 'engine' to come on...says a lot. 

This week, I read a piece on the Euro to dollar relationship.  Twelve years ago....the Euro would buy 1.15 dollars (meaning the dollar was weak).  The EU rate presently?  It buys around 1.05 dollars.  The new chatter?  The EU bank folks have said they wouldn't MIND if the new rate was  1 to 1 or even .97 Euro cents to a dollar.

A shock?  I was here in West Germany in 1985....where the dollar was buying 3.4  Deutsche Marks...a shocking amount.  Tons of US cash was flowing in.....GI's were buying new BMWs....people were traveling all over Europe that summer.  I was also here in Germany when the dollar dumped, and the dollar would only buy .78 Euro cents.

In a way.....desperation has set in, and the bulk of Europe needs some kind of charged-up US economy.  Belief  in the Biden numbers for the past four years? There's simply a lot of disbelief settling in now....that US economic numbers weren't portrayed correctly.  

So acceptance of Trump and the change coming?  Yeah, it's just an odd era.  

8 Dec 2024: Two German News Stories

 1.  Lot of stuff going on in Romania (over the election business).  Apparently yesterday....prosecutors did a raid over the primary winner (around 22-percent of the vote) 'backer' (the money-guy).  Accusations now exist.....he was laundering money into the campaign, and providing some kind of computer fraud. Bribery of voters  also came up (no real proof yet).

This far-right guy?  Calin Georgescu.  He was mostly unknown until you get to the past 12 months.  Oddly, the chief accusation made against him now?  An NATO-skeptic.  

It would appear....for the next attempt at a election...Georgescu will not be listed.  Where his 22-percent  of the public go to? Unknown.

2.  N-TV piece this AM.....3 human-trafficking cases opened each day in Germany on average.

Three Interesting Things

 1.  BILD went and did a survey of polling numbers.  

IF the FDP Party fails to get 5-percent of the vote  (now sitting at 4-percent)....then they are removed from  the Bundestag, and there's a numbers situation where a CDU-CSU and Green Party coalition could occur.  

There's been a fair amount of criticism of the Green Party achievements in the past three years....a lot of it from the CDU-CSU folks.   But presently the  only other option is the CDU-CSU and SPD coalition.

2.  The EU court system is messing around with a case where a high number of German diesel cars would be 'forcibly' removed from the roads.

Across the whole EU...there's around 200-million vehicles in this group that would be 'junked'. 

This decision was made in November, but there's typically three to six months of action time where member states could make a demand.  So  far, nothing much has happened.   

Another topic for the election?  Well....no one has said much but I would imagine around two-million diesel car owners in Germany will be asking questions.

These being mostly diesel cars made prior to 2017?  Yes.

The 'funny' side to this?  When you go back to the 1970s....the selling point of diesel was that you got tons of extra mileage, and that was a big deal out of the gas crisis period.  The mileage led to a lot of Germans being hyped-up over the choice.

3.  Because of a decline in stock price....Lufthansa can now pay a 15-percent dividend for the year (shocking amount, even I will admit). 

Explaining What Happened in the Romania Presidential Election

 Back on 24 November, they had the national Presidential election in Romania.  Remember....they have a multi-party system.

14 candidates.....around 9.24-million votes in the end.

No one had 50-percent or more. So the way that the rules are written....top two candidates move to a second election which was to be this weekend.

One candidate had  2.12-million and the 2nd place winner had 1.77-million. Things were fine on the 25th with these two.

But this week....the national Supreme Court of Romania stepped in and said a total 're-do' has to occur.

Chief reason?  The  2.12-million guy is far-right-wing. And to be honest....he represented  himself....he was not a party-affiliated person. There's no rule requiring an affiliation.

Folks are a bit hyped-up over the action....were not  expecting a total disqualification of the election from late November. 

Russian-influence a part  of the story?  That's what the court says. 

I sat and did a long read over topics for the election.  So the top five topics? Well.....Ukraine-Russia war, the economy (jobs), crime/corruption perception, LGBTQ rights, and oddly enough....not enough Christianity in the public sector (some folks think it needs more emphasis, and this became politicized).

How they intend to prevent Russian influence?  No idea.

From a brief view of Romanian social media....someone made the comment....there could be six additional elections in 2025,  with the right-wing guy getting the majority of votes in each one....with the court throwing out each result. Their gut reaction?  You lose respect for the court in the end.

It's an odd problem

Footnote added: A fair amount of this right-wing voting trend....comes from use of campaign ads from Tik Tok.  So the youth vote and trend to that direction...made a difference.  

Yes, this whole election scares the crap out of France/Germany.....facing national votes shortly, and how Tik Tok might influence youth votes in each country.

7 Dec 2024:5 German News Stories

 1. We had a unusual robbery Thursday night....some 'party' came up and stole around 40 Christmas trees from some dealer in Wiesbaden over the evening hours.  They figured whoever it was....had a trailer, and probably at least two guys.

2.  Five South American states (Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Uruguay, and Paraguay) worked up a free-trade deal with the EU.  Your benefit in Germany?  Cheaper Argentine steaks.  

3.   Two 'Last-Generation' folks will end up going to jail for spray-painting a jet (summer 2023 event).  Court decided this yesterday.

4.  Some radical right group in Italy had a coup planned out.  National investigation being conducted.

5.  N-TV had a piece this AM....talking about the loss of a driver's license for DWI, and how you aren't even supposed to ride a bicycle in Germany.

Social Media And 3 Questions

 1.  Are Germans leaving X/Twitter?

Well....there's a piece off HR (Hessen public TV) which talks about some 'professionals' who have quit Twitter.  They can't really cite numbers....that some  people have voiced their exit.  

Key factor?  They think there is extremism, and too much criticism within X/Twitter.  

Here's the thing....at the middle of 2024....there were roughly 15-million German accounts on Twitter.  I'll just say that there are more on WhatsApp, Facebook, and Instagram (more popular in my opinion).  If ten-percent left....it'd be a big deal....but if only 1-percent left....it's not much to talk about.

2.  Is social media supposed to be a place of agreement and solidarity?  

Well.....NONE of the platforms were designed for this solidarity-gimmick=or-one-voice lifestyle.

Some will say that Twitter was originally design in the beginning  to mold solidarity....mostly by lessening commentary (using artificial means).  You could accomplish this by key-words identifying forbidden topics and a system curtailing the readers.  As most people realized the code-process....it became more of a comical platform.  

3.  Are people in a state of mind where they need a single-path (a bubble) to a mind-set?

We seem to talk a good bit over fragile-people these days....that if you really screw up the thought process....then some guy or gal requires a 'safe-space'  where they can collect their thoughts and try to recuperate from 'shock'.

But this ought to be a design-moment....where you sit down and answer a 5000-question quiz, and the App/platform designs itself to bring you only agreeable topics, and agreeable discussions.  If you want to believe in science in a special way, or  believe in ghosts, or believe that Catholic Church priests being 'pure' in thought, or believe that carbon is actually real pollution, or that people should read by candle-light....then you deserve a single-path option.

In the same design....if you want disagreeable topics and criticism....full-blast, then the App ought to give you that option.

6 Dec 2024: Six German News Stories

 1.  ARD (public TV) spoke up to a national shortage of 'skilled/certified' KITA (kindergarten) workers.  Nationally, back in October....they chatted up the topic of a national shortage of KITA workers....300,000 missing positions for parents across all of Germany.

2.  German Army admits over past year....they've exited about 62 personnel for being 'far-right' enthusiasts.

3.  The AfD Party says they are almost to the point of dismissing and  rebuilding the youth AfD 'wing' of the party.  Chief problem?  It would appear that the youth element is more right-wing....than the AfD Party itself.

4.  Northvolt, the German-Swedish battery company, is bankrupt.  They were going to make batteries for Audi/Porsche E-cars....which haven't really taken off. Yeah, they were around since 2015.

Curious note....they were infused with around 625-million Euro of German  gov't money (one of those Habeck projects from the Green Party).  This failure will be talked  about a good bit.

5. WELT had a piece this AM....talking over the hyped-up criticality of the economy....that it now out-ranks climate change.

6.  What were the two triggers to the gov't collapse of France?  First, a black 'hole' in the budget of roughly 60-billion Euro....which the coalition could not agree (one side wanted fresh taxes....one side wanted cuts). 

Second, in the last month....the PM pushed a reform package on social  pensions....using special powers.  This angered the coalition because they could not agree with the final draft. 

5 Dec 2024: Four German News Stories

 1.  The Foreign Minister (Baerbock, Green Party) has presented a plan where German troops would be deployed into Ukraine (as a peace-stabilizing  'group').  This was at the NATO summit in Brussels.  It does not appear that anyone supports the idea, and I would imagine across Germany....more than 99-percent of the public would say 'NO'.

2. Fair amount of snow coming this weekend across all of southern Germany.

3.  The Afghanistan 'truth-commission' exploring the debacle on exiting....has one central witness left, before they conclude the inquiry.....former Chancellor Merkel.  Generally, from what has been said so far....all failures lead back to the US handling.

4.  No confidence vote in France done....final.  Earliest date for an election? July 2025.  What this was mostly about? A budget hole of 60-odd  billion Euro.

3 Dec 2024: Five German News Stories

 1.  Trump is to be in Paris for the weekend opening of Notre Dame. Invite from Macron....trying to get on a better relationship.

2.  No-confidence vote in France is now very likely....could happen this week.  Possible new election by March 2025. 

3. New wave of Syrians leaving, due to the renewed war.  

4.  There's talk about a renewed E-car 'bonus'....if you were to go out and buy such a car.  Most analysts agree....peak-buying was 2023, for E-cars.

5. Some kid in Berlin set off a tear-gas cannister in the classroom....44 kids had to be treated.  

2 Dec 2024: Five German News Stories

 1.  ZDF (public TV, channel 2) did a political poll:

CDU-CSU, safely at 1st place, 32-percent.  AfD still at 2nd place....18-percent.

Both FDP and Linke below 5-percent, and would not get seats if the election were now.

BSW, gain a point over the past week....at 5-percent.

The SPD in hopes of a gain.....got nothing, and sits at 16-percent.

The real question at this point? How the coalition ends up working after the fed-election in Feb 2025. 

2.  The union for VW....wants a strike on Monday.  I'll just say....as financially bad-of as VW is....the strike won't do much to change things.

Does VW survive?  It's hard to imagine them not existing.  From the various car  brands in Germany....there may only be two existing in the end. 

3.  Not to say it changes much with Syrian migrants in Germany....but over the weekend....Assad (President of Syria) flew out to Moscow.  I don't think he will be returning.

What happens now?  Wouldn't surprise me if you see Syria divided up....maybe three (or more) new zones, states, countries...to exist.  Who follows? Pro-Iran folks, Pro-ISIS folks, and Pro-Turkey folks.  

4.  France gov't to collapse?  Well....there is a hole of 60 billion euros in France's 2025 budget. There was a deal going on....where the Prime Minister Barnier had some type of austerity situation to occur.  

But....the RN party, led by Le Pen, is having a problem.

So there's talk of a no-confidence  vote on Monday....which would collapse the gov't.  

Lot of drama....very similar in nature to what is happening in Germany.

5.  200k work-visas have been issued out in Germany over the past year. 

1 Dec 2024: Six German News Stories

 1.  I haven't read much on it....but former Chancellor Merkel's book has been out for a couple of weeks....700-odd pages.

This AM....commentary by Focus on one part of the book, where she goes briefly in detail over the asylum/migration period (2013-2020).  

The blame or the era?  She shifts it mostly to Germans who wouldn't be supporting the pro-asylum position....not upon herself or the gov't.  

I'll just say in the 2013 to December 2015....it was a highly supportive public....probably in the range of 70-percent  supporting her policy....5-to-8 percent highly critical/negative, and the remainder asking questions which could not be answered.   After 1 January 2016...it went to 10-to-15 percent highly negative, and near 50-percent asking extremely difficult questions (especially over the criminal aspects, and the cost).  

I'll also say....most all world leader tend to live in a 'bubble'....so what they think....might not reflect upon reality.

2.  Black Friday shopping levels?  I was in Wiesbaden for all afternoon on Friday....just a lot of shoppers, with various deals.  We are in a recession, with some store-fronts empty/closed.  But people are spending money.

3.  Watching N-TV news this AM....brief talk came over health insurance rates in Germany.  The various companies now admit that cost has gone up and some type of rise in your contributions has to occur in 2025.  What the 'gap' is (missing funds) by the end of 2025?  14-billion Euro.  Yeah, huge chunk.  

4.  This is the weekend where a critical service of Telecom ends....the use of the number '11833'.  This was the number you'd call....get an operator....to ask for the number of some business or person.  For a hundred years, it's been around.  Ended.

5.  Up in the state of NRW yesterday.....truck-driver went 'crazy' and took to some very dangerous maneuvers....at least 20 Germans injured on the autobahn before police could halt the truck.

6.  The wife and I ended up last night at two spots.

The first was a Norwegian-like tee-pee tent with a fire in the middle of it....smoking up salmon.  I actually rate the experience as 5-star.  However, it was smokey-as-hell inside of the tent, and total cost (drinks and food, with tip) was 100 Euro for 2 people.  

The second was Wiesbaden's only authentic sports bar.  The nation-wide shortage of pub-personnel?  Well....we ended seeing this in a major way....number of tables open.  Once seated....it took around 35 minutes before the waiter came around, and another 40 minutes before the drinks got to the table. 

Most all bars, cafes, and restaurants in Wiesbaden complain about the problems in finding 'help'.  I'd reflect upon it....having the shortage....is denying you a chance to make profits.