Bundestag has scheduled now....for the 16th....the no-confidence vote. Since the FDP was 'fired' from the coalition.....it appears 99-percent likely 'no' wins.
However, it is conceivable that some element (say the AfD Party)....might vote to continue the epic saga, with a minority gov't. Odds of this? I'm about at 2-percent confidence on this idea (it'd be really stupid).
Chancellor Scholz will give a speech....get the President of Germany to agree, and the vote occurs.
Polling? Well....if you looked at the situation in spring of 2023....a majority of Germans wanted early voting. This spring (2024)....some polling showed near 70-percent wanted a collapsed gov't.
Strongest divide? The economy....it's an absolute recession in place.
Just switching leadership to fix the mess? They need three things to occur....the US in some economical surge....the end to the Ukraine-Russia war....and natural gas returning to a Russian situation. I would add....the car industry in Germany needs a miracle of sorts....to re-shuffle things.
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