Five Things

 1.  Will the collapse of the Assad gov't in Syria trigger a new refugee problem in Germany?

Just on my own analysis of this...with the UN saying the 2024 population is 25-million...I would imagine at least 2-to-3 million (mostly those with a Christian background) will exit, and the vast number will be heading to Germany.

Back in 2022, an accurate count came up from the German gov't....saying there were at that point....around 522k 'declared' Syrians in the country.  If you asked me about unannounced Syrians residing in Germany....there's probably another 20,000 who aren't registered and just staying with relatives.

Could the Germans handle that many?  If it were spaced out....say over a year or two....yes.  But if you said it was a million just within 90 days, it'd be a mess to deal with and handle accommodations. 

Politically 'hot' during an election campaign period?  YES. 

2.  'Klimaschönfärberei' was voted 2nd highest on invented words for 2024 in the German language.  

Meaning?  Well....it means climate-white-wash....where you as a company broadly talk about your company and how you achieved success with carbon savings.

Yeah, it's meant as a bogus or BS term....in a negative way.....mostly by German teenagers.  But the companies aren't stupid....if you convince the public on climate problems....it's simply a wise choice to say (as a company) that you helped to save the Earth.  

3.  ARD (public TV, Channel 1) did a poll...over top concern for politics in Germany.  The big hype?  The current economic trend, and the public generally said it's the worst situation in 15 years.

The poll also said....ONE in FIVE Germans are worried about losing their job, which is a bad sign for the election coming up.

If you were going to ask me of the parties.....who appears to have a better economic agenda presently to present, it's mostly the CDU-CSU folks (polling at 32 percent  presently).  Between now and mid-Feb....if people center on this economic problem....I'd say the CDU-CSU numbers get up around 35-to-36 percent of the vote....minimum.

4.  President Macron did a speech yesterday....saying he intends to stay in office until his term ends (May 2027).  

Personally, if you were looking for who follows the EU presidency after Van de Leyen....it's Macron.  

5.  It's just an odd thing you notice over the past two weeks....with Trump in Paris meeting up with Macron yesterday.  

A year or two ago...lot of grumbling/negative talk over Trump in the public news. In the past ten days...the grumbling/criticism has ended.  You just see a lot of central themes (working with the US).

The fact that they (Europe itself) has serious economic woes, and need the US business 'engine' to come on...says a lot. 

This week, I read a piece on the Euro to dollar relationship.  Twelve years ago....the Euro would buy 1.15 dollars (meaning the dollar was weak).  The EU rate presently?  It buys around 1.05 dollars.  The new chatter?  The EU bank folks have said they wouldn't MIND if the new rate was  1 to 1 or even .97 Euro cents to a dollar.

A shock?  I was here in West Germany in 1985....where the dollar was buying 3.4  Deutsche Marks...a shocking amount.  Tons of US cash was flowing in.....GI's were buying new BMWs....people were traveling all over Europe that summer.  I was also here in Germany when the dollar dumped, and the dollar would only buy .78 Euro cents.

In a way.....desperation has set in, and the bulk of Europe needs some kind of charged-up US economy.  Belief  in the Biden numbers for the past four years? There's simply a lot of disbelief settling in now....that US economic numbers weren't portrayed correctly.  

So acceptance of Trump and the change coming?  Yeah, it's just an odd era.