How serious is the Covid-19 situation on the German economy?
Presently, the commercial world is saying 40-billion Euro is missing from their sales....since day one. (Deutsche Welle did a fine article to cover the factual data).
Right now, the German retailers association....HDE....the year will end with 22-percent less income than in 2019.
Now, the curious thing you have to work with.....this only covers the mess and projection...without the second wave, and if Christmas shopping occurs on schedule with normal expectations. If there is a second wave, and Christmas Markets across Germany don't occur, with sales less than normal? Then this 22-percent less suggestion will grow.
The worst hit in the commercial world of Germany? Toy stores and jewelry shops. They are suggesting a 50-percent 'drag' on their sales.
So here's the thing....the commercial world of Germany is beginning to ask the government (federal folks) to arrange a deal for them....like what you see in the US. No one says the amount or how it'd work.
HDE even stepped up and suggested more than 10,000 business-related bankruptcies could occur by the end of December. That would mean employees get cut, and a bigger recession falls into play for spring of 2021.
Writing a script for this? Well, a lot depends on no second wave....which at this point, seems to be more likely, than less likely.
This resolve and upward trend for the economy....which the German government continually chats about? This is gauged on the best possible scenario, and these 10k bankruptcies not occurring.
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