Around a hundred days ago....Merkel's party (the CDU, right-of-center) was supposed to hold a weekend meeting, and hustle up a new party chief (not the Chancellor candidate). That meeting, because of Covid-19 fears, failed to occur. They held the meeting over the past couple of days, with a virtual situation, and digital vote.
The obvious candidate to win 100 days ago? Merz, who isn't generally liked by the pro-Merkel crowd, but believed to be a better choice by the rest of the party.
The winner today? The Premier-President of NRW....Armin Laschet. Yes, liked by the pro-Merkel people, and somehow convinced enough of the neutral crowd of his thoughts for the future.
Merz and his path to the Chancellorship? I'd say on a scale of one to ten....he was a '8' a week ago, and today....he's closer to a '3'. Laschet will control the process and likely lay out a path for only two candidates preferred by the pro-Merkel crowd....either the Minister of Health (Spahn) or Premier-President of Bavaria (Soder).
General scenario ahead? I would suggest that the Greens just got a 'favor' in the mix, and might be able to gain four to six points on the CDU folks in the next eight months. The odds of a Green Party person being Chancellor went from a 1-percent chance....to around a 20-to-30 percent chance.
My two negatives on Laschet? First, a journalist will lay out a structured question, and halfway through the 12-line comment, Laschet will stumble around and just beg for more intense questions....where he stumbles around even more. If he'd just limit himself to a six-line answer, he'd cut out all of this fumbling around. But he never seems to wise-up to this problem of his.
The second issue? The pro-Merkel crowd want the emphasis and brand to continue on....you'd get another round of Merkel priorities and visions. By getting Laschet in as the party chief....that vision continues on. General public? Most said at the 2017 election....they wanted a new path/new vision (more than two-thirds of Germans in one poll spoke to that).
Don't go expecting the CDU to do much.
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