Tuesday, September 14, 2021

End of the 7-Day Incidence Rate?

 Well....yeah, my state of Hessen here in Germany....announced today that the 'device' of hospitalization-rate will dissolve away on Thursday morning.

It was a number device to tell you the Covid-rate of influence, per 100,000 residents in a city or town.  Far as I know....since March of 2020....it's been around.

The new number device?  Well....it's two.

As HR (our public TV folks) puts it:

The first stage or rate is when hospitalization occurs in a normal 'ward'.

The second stage/rate is when you reach the level of intensive care (I perceive this meaning ICU related). 

Could you end up in the hospital with Covid but never advance past a normal quarantine ward?  Yes.  My wife had a co-worker who developed Covid and was doing the at-home situation....then got dehydrated....getting an ambulance call, and put on a drip for about 12 hours.  Then the hospital said adios....telling her to go home and recover there (emphasizing hydrating herself).   

Are these geared to tell a positive story?  No one is saying or suggesting that.  But you'd have to imagine that various medical folks have sat and looked at 2020 numbers and played with these two models.

So you could have three sets of numbers?  Well....there's the quarantined-at-home crowd, then the regular quarantined-at-the-hospital-ward crowd, and then the ICU-crowd.  

Part of this story, I would imagine....is that some treatment plans or strategies have developed over the past six months, and fewer people will be in the hospital or in the ICU....just my humble guess.  How many fewer?  Unknown.

The reality here?  Just getting plain Covid and resting at home for seven to fourteen days....won't really be a daily-count-mess.  Someone will sit and figure up that it's a very small number of folks who end up in the ICU, and maybe it's just not that big of a day if you only counted those folks.

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