Poll Chatter

 More polling results today, from Focus.  They went to the Insa group, who completed a poll for the weekend publications. 

Looks great for the SPD, sitting at 25 percent.  CDU-CSU?  Stuck at 20 percent (no advancement).

The Greens?  Well....they lost a point over the past week (now at 16 percent).  If you went back five months....they were there at 30-plus percent....so almost every other week....they've lost a point.  Odds for the 26th (voting day)?  I might go and suggest they finish up at 14-to-15 percent.

FDP? 13 percent.  AfD at 12 percent.  Linke at 7 percent.

I just don't see how the SPD can lose at this point.  

Chief question?  Can the Greens get a minimum of 17 percent....to ensure a SPD-Green-Linke coalition government?  If they fall to the 15 percent level....there's no way mathematically that you reach the 50 percent mandate to run a government.  That's probably now the biggest question of the election.

One point here....there are forty-plus parties in the running.  If you get five-percent or more....you get standing to have your people in the Bundestag.  If you get 4.9 percent, you are screwed.  After they rack-and-stack the 5 percent-plus parties, then the numbers are adjusted, for the coalition-building exercise.  

It is entirely possible that the SPD's 'dream-team' idea is screwed by just a point.

Just something to think about.