If Chancellor Merz Resigned Tomorrow? (What The Law Says)

 First, he'd give a letter to President Steinmeier, and he'd (Steinmeier) ask Merz to stay as a 'temp'.  He can decline this, and Steinmeier would then ask the SPD back-up Chancellor (Lars Klingbeil) to assume the job temporarily.

We move to step two then.

A new Chancellor must then be elected by the Bundestag under Article 63. The process has up to three rounds: The President proposes a candidate (one assumes a CDU-guy/gal), but he might shock folks by picking a non-party person. That person needs an absolute majority of all 630 Bundestag members (316 votes).

If that fails, the Bundestag has 14 days to elect someone with an absolute majority on its own.....meaning no suggestion by the President works.

If that also fails, a third ballot is held. A relative majority (most votes) is then enough. The President then decides whether to appoint that person (even if it produces a minority government) or dissolve the Bundestag and call snap elections.

Minority gov't?  It'd dampen 2027 state elections, and likely hurt both the CDU-CSU Party and the SPD Party.

Getting a SPD Chancellor out of this?  I'd give it better than 50-percent odds. Top guy?  Boris Pistorius (Defense Minister currently).  

Helpful for the AfD brand?  Some folks might argue that having Merz resign...is very helpful for the AfD brand.  

Steinmeier gone in January 2027?  Well....term ends, and there's folks planning nominees.....probably to have a Bundestag 'vote' by November.  CDU might be hoping that they get their person put into place, and a Merz-exit would have better conditions.  Could this secret CDU 'winner' put their own name up for the Chancellor job?  The law has conditions....to prevent that.

Any of this scenario being discussed currently...in the open?  Oddly....no.

Analysis of AfD 'Platform'

 Two days ago....AfD published a list of promises....to sell their brand nationally.  My humble view after each:

- Term limit for professional politicians. They will not be able to live off the State for more than eight years.

Getting all of the parties to agree to this...near zero.  If you asked working-class Germans....they might prioritize this...but it won't be a top-ten thing.

- Europe of sovereign states, or an exit if that is not possible.

Exiting the EU?  There might be 30-to-35 percent of people who will sit and listen to the idea...maybe bulk of them agreeing in some ways.  I remember the era prior to the 1990s, and will say....there's various positive things that the EU delivered.  

- End of the euro as a common currency.

Around a decade ago....you could ask and probably 10-percent of Germans felt the DM was a better deal than the Euro.  Today?  I'm not sure how people would see the idea.

- Total border control.

Requires a massive manpower situation....probably over 25,000 hirees.  Police have openly said....they would do the job on a temp-basis (like 6 to 12 months) but if it were permanent....you need a hired-up crew.  Budget for this?  Doesn't exist.

Priority among Germans?  Likely two-thirds of people support this idea.

- Asylum processed outside the EU.

Curious wording....you could not apply for asylum....unless you did it beyond the EU 'borders'.  You'd have to have a workable deportation program....something marginally working at present.  Sounds good on paper until you push for fixing deporation.

- Remigration of criminals and people without residence rights.

Public opinion....I believe 75-percent of Germans support the idea. 

- Tax cuts.

First, you'd have to have budget cuts.....where?

- Energy: nuclear energy, coal, repairs to Nord Stream, no more CO₂ tax, no more ban on combustion engines.

Seen popular in different ways by the public.  Fixing N-S....probably occurs....ONLY after the war ends.  As for nuke energy?  It's hyped as 'evil'....so you'd have to resolve this belief.  The ban on combustion engines?  It's killing the auto-industry.

I should mention here....Germany already has one of the highest grid cost rates of any EU country...presently.

- Pro-nationalist policy.

Might be supported by 40-percent of the pubic.  Half of the media would utter 'nazi' when discussed.

- Promotion of German culture, protection of the German language

Probably in conflict with one-third of German voters.  

- Expulsion of Muslims who reject the German legal system. No to sharia courts

If you explain Sharia....I doubt that more than 10-percent of Germans support some creation.  If you asked Syrian-Germans....more than half probably would say they'd really rather not have such a 'problem' existing.  

- Reinforcement of the police

Merkel hired 10,000 new state/federal police....right before Covid.  My question....that effort was difficult because of quality required for recruits.....where would you find another 10,000 to 15,000 additional folks for the job.  I agree....it's needed.

- Zero tolerance for foreign criminals and mafias.

I'd say they are already ten years too late.  Public would support this.  

New Poll: National Politics in Germany

I paused over this last night:

 AfD: 29 percent 

CDU/CSU: 19.5 percent (down a point)

Greens: 13.5 percent 

SPD: 12.5 percent (up a half-point)

Left Party: 10.5 percent

FDP: 4.5 percent

BSW: 4 percent (up a half-point)

It's not something that you can see as positive for the Merz 'crew'.  On the lefty-side?  Roughly 40-percent of the voting public currently....but highly divided.  (Comes from Focus)

Does German Public TV Deliver Child-Like News?

Well....yeah.

 ARD's takes it's nightly 8 PM news.."Tagesschau".....then translates it into "in einfacher Sprache" (basically 3rd-to-6th grade-level simple language).  

So you can imagine....someone 'drafted'/selected from the team....who has the 15-minute news piece, and spending probably two to three hours....working the wording/graphics around...to give to a 'new' resident of Germany....in simple language.

Yes...simple basic sentences....no fancy words.  The bars/graphs....explained like you were talking to a kid.  Then giving a kid-like description of details.

Could you download the actual word-text from the Tagesschau in your home-language, and get a 4-star translation (without the child-like narrative)?  Yeah.

Personally....I wish they'd do this with the German crime-show dramas, and have someone whittle the 90-minute crime-drama to 20 sentences....so the confusion was less over-all.

Why Putin Eyeballs Germany As A Target?

 Yesterday....Germany's Minister of Defense approved a new military aid package for Ukraine.  Includes PAC-2 Patriot intercepts (from their stock), AIM-9 missiles, and tens of thousands of long-range artillery shells.

Putin notes the transfers and probably just shakes his head...all of these German 'stockpiles' are absolutely a target in his mind.

That PISA Study

 PISA 2025 (released 8 September 2026)....concluded and it's pretty dismal.

German 15-year old kids....lowest scores since they started PISA in 2000.

Science, math and reading all down.

Blame?  What they generally say....the number of 'new' kids (the migrants) are dragging educational progress down.  Marginal interest in the subject matter....lack of respect for teachers....discipline lacking.

Q-and-A:

 1.  Is there anyway to really define 'far-left/far-right'?

No.

When one party says a platform goal is free-bus/rail travel....it really doesn't suggest far-left/far-right.  If you had a migration issue....saying deportation is necessary....it also doesn't suggest far-left/far-right.  

The German news media have played with the definition a good bit, and I'd say at this point....most folks can't conclude any definition worth talking about.

2.  Merz going away?

There are five state elections in 2027....most occur in April.  By the time you get to Niedersachsen in September....if the CDU has performed in a crappy fashion for the five....I might see some meeting where a discussion comes up (for both the SPD and CDU).....if the coalition can continue, or a fresh new election should occur.

2028 elections?  Presently....three coming (2 in the fall, one in the spring)....they will matter a good bit.

3.  The economy still problem one?

I'd go and suggest the economy and jobs rate as the top problem....with public safety and migration issues fitting into the top five issues facing the country.  Neither the SPD or CDU/CSU....seem to have any true fix for the economic issue.

4.  SPD overcome by the Greens?

That is a odd landscape....if you added up the Linke-SPD-Green voters....they make up around 38-to-40 percent of the nation presently.

5.  Is there crime-clan warfare going on in Germany?

Not on front-page news....but if you glance through newspapers weekly....various clans are in competition with each other, and hit-jobs are being conducted.  Police are more or less....simply watching the development unfold.

I asked AI to review data....how many crime families exist at the national level (across states).....total of 36 noted.

6.  Is there any indication that the CDU or SPD have reviewed the 'get-elected' strategy of the AfD Party?

Well....no.  If either had the 'get-elected' strategy in their mind....they would have overcome this voting trend.  

At some point....Merkel saw the gimmick, and countered AfD....by agreeing to hire 10,000 MORE state/federal police (over a 3 year period).  That briefly gave the SPD and CDU folks 'time'. It's been 7 years since that idea.

German Police Search Concluded (Successful)

 Sometime late this AM....German cops at a traffic check-point...arrested the man suspected of a series of sabotage attacks on the country’s power grid. 

Location?  Weisweiler.

Carrying explosives when arrested?  Well....yeah.  That's probably another extra charge.

Term used by the state Interior Minister about the guy?  'Misguided'.  Fair amount of belief that the judge probably will ask for a 30-day mental exam period.  I'd go and suggest 50-50 odds that he'll never get to a court, and likely be sent 'off' to a mental facility.

What his agenda basically came down to?  Mostly the 'evils' of high-voltage lines and substations serving lignite (brown-coal) plants.  You know...the fossil-fuel 'evils'.  If the lines had nothing to do with brown-coal?  They weren't targeted.  

Ever letting the guy out?  I'm of the mind that he's pretty set on the evils of fossil-fuel, and he's likely a candidate for a lifetime in some jail or mental-facility.

Finally....a positive note....German cops getting their guy.