Tariff Talks Closing Soon?

"Europe is willing to reduce car tariffs to zero, all tariffs to zero, if the U.S. does the same, We would do it, if they do it. That remains to be seen.” 

-- Cecilia Malmstrom, the European Commissioner for Trade

So, you remember that Merkel stall chatter from back around the second month of the administration?  You remember how the Germans kept chatting over how things can't go this way?  You remember how they woke up and said that they'd stand against the American trade position?

So, it's mostly all over.  The tariff game will end, and no one will have to play the tariff 'hard-talk' anymore. 

The most curious thing?  Trump learned one single lesson out of this.  Don't bother chatting with the Germans anymore....go direct to the EU, and leave the Berlin crowd out of the negotiations.  I think you will see more of this over the next couple of years, and the realization that Berlin is not the center of power anymore. 

The only question left....how long will it take until most Germans realize that there's no reason to really show up and vote in national elections because the real power is in Brussels?

Travel Warning?

It was noted in Switzerland today....a travel warning has been issued for Germany.....warning the Swiss to be vigilant and careful because of the riots in Chemnitz.

Should you be worried about traveling around in Germany?  Well.....no.  Generally, if you kinda walked into some area of a town and there's some demonstration going on....my general advice is to backtrack a street or two....find a pub, and sip down two or three beers until the riot lessens.....then wander back to your hotel room.

Don't get real stupid and stand out in the middle of a riot....to take pictures. 

Don't go asking folks what the riot is about.

Don't approach any group of cops who appear to have riot gear on.

Don't go near an area that appears to have tear-gas.

Don't worry about being picked on as a foreigner. 

Don't respond to reporters when they ask what you think about the riot.

Don't anticipate anyone with a hoodie on....is your friend.

Just use common sense.

Daylight Savings Time Gone?

Well....sort of....but it was not put together as a referendum for the EU.  Occurred this morning at the EU.  It was simply a text to see the voting 'slant' on this.  They will have to pack it into some legal framework, and I'd think it'll be voted upon within sixty days.  We will flip back on this next time-change, and that will likely be the last time.

Public support?  Massive number of Germans want it tossed.

UPDATE: Amusingly enough, it was put out after this EU discussion that Chancellor Merkel would also like to get rid of Daylight Savings Time.  With the Berlin crowd in full turbo.....the EU will likely beat them by two years, I would imagine. 

Solidarity Tax Chatter

Back thirty years ago, after the Wall came down....Chancellor Kohl proposed a Solidarity Tax, which would help fund all of these marvelous projects to rebuild East Germany.  It was constructed in a way that the folks at the bottom of the wealth class....paid next to nothing, and those who made real money were the chief supporters of this pot of money.

What'd equal per year?  Roughly 18-billion Euro.  You can do the math, but over the thirty year period, they basically had almost 600-billion Euro to construct or build everything in eastern Germany.

The curious thing is that Kohl constructed the tax with a 'end-point'.  In 2021, it's supposed to end.  Both parties (CDU and SPD) say it will end (at present).

If you go around and ask most regular Germans, they don't believe the chatter.  They suggest the tax will continue on.  Returning the 18-billion to regular Germans?  Well.....it would be curious how people react if they do get the money back.  Will they go and readily spend it?

How you figure your rate?  It's written up as a 5.5-percent tax (roughly) of your income tax added on.  If you do the numbers on the average middle class guy in the middle-income level....it'll end up being near 350 Euro a year for the tax.  For managers, with a better income?  Maybe up to 1,000 Euro.

So when you hear chatter on the Solidarity Tax, and your German associate is peeved.....you can understand the way it's constructed and how it didn't really benefit anyone on the western side of Germany.

The Search Warrant and the Arrest Warrant

So the authorities in Germany have moved to the next curious episode over the Chemnitz murder.  Yesterday, the arrest warrant information (the actual copy) came out, and the authorities went 'nuts' because this is private and the public can't see or know of the info on the arrest warrant (German law forbids it).

What ARD (public German TV, Channel One) says today is that the authorities have now gone back to Bremen (opposite end of German, and away from Chemnitz).

The target of this arrest warrant investigation?  Well.....a Bremen politician (described as a 'right-wing populist').

Local prosecutor in Bremen have authorized a search warrant and they checked out the guy's house.

This guy.....Jan Timke....is now suspected as the one who put the arrest warrant on Facebook.

Cops took his cell phone, a tablet and computer.  Then they went to Facebook and had them yank the copy of the arrest warrant.

Who is Timke?  All that they can say is that he's a German federal cop and a member of some right-wing association called "Citizens in anger".

What kind of trouble is this guy in?  Well....the law says he could get one-year in prison for divulging the arrest warrant.  It'll be at least three months before this case comes up in court and one can only speculate that the judge is going to be fairly tough about this....maybe the guy gets the full-year in jail. 

Are arrest warrants generally (in the US for example) public information?  Generally....no.  If you ask the cops if there is an arrest warrant out for such-and-such.....they can answer yes or no.  But letting you gaze at the document itself?  No....it doesn't usually happen.

Here's the problem I see coming out of this.  There's a heck of a lot of people in Germany, in various positions....who are frustrated and going to non-standard political parties.  And you have to continually think about consequences, and how things will work in the future.....as more people just suggest the system is 'broke' and you opt for illegal or immoral solutions to remedy what you perceive is broke.

This is likely not the last arrest warrant that will go public, and public sentiment (for this Timke guy for example) might go and support the guy. 

Did the public need the copy of the arrest warrant?  No.  The cops would have had to go and admit they arrested the two guys accused of the death of this German guy, and it would be a public statement (not a document).

All this does is dig a deeper hole for public sentiment to be anti-government or be critical of leadership. 

What is Chemnitz Really About?

Over the weekend, a fest was going on in Chemnitz, and some German guy bumped into two young immigrant guys (one from Iraq, and one from Syria).  Something was spoken....something was perceived, and the German guy got stabbed a number of times (dead).  Cops detain the two suspects. 

Social media rapidly puts the message out,and a crowd on evening number one....reaches near 800 folks.  They are angry and frustrated.  Local cops do their best, but this is an event where they can enforce stability. The next day....the journalists and political folks hype up the negativity of the 'riot'.  Outside influence?  Some say that there might be some influence going on, and the riots might be somewhat planned. 

Federal cops coming in?  Yes.  Curfew likely coming?  Probably.  Affecting the state election in two months?  Oh....maybe.  I'll go ahead and suggest that three to five additional points get added to the AfD in Saxony over the next six weeks.  It might be enough to be the first place winner in the state election. 

Germans will point out five to ten assaults, rapes, or murders by migrants or immigrants over the past year.  As much as the news folks (particularly public TV news) have tried to control the message and avoid the subject.....the public is starting to avoid them and go direct to social media to get updates.  They've lost trust in public TV news. 

These incidents over the past four years?  Well, you can divide them into three categories:

1.  Alcohol or drug-induced.

2.  Islamic brainwashing to the extent of being a 'hero'.

3.  Immature behavior for an adult young male.

Yes, there's probably at least a couple thousand young migrant males who've arrived and really can't handle the culture, the German alcohol scene, drugs in general, or respecting women.  Here's the thing....you can't do anything much to resolve that issue.

The German political folks are worried about Chemnitz because if this riot business isn't stopped....it'll spread and become a national trend.  My perception is that they don't really have much of an idea how to stop it.....other than simple raw police power and arrest threats.  It's not a good resolution but there is little else to use.

West Nile Virus?

With the 500-odd worries that Germans have on their plate....comes a new one....West Nile Virus.

N-TV (German commercial news) reports that there is now a chance that the virus has entered Germany.

Roughly 40 people dead in southern Europe this year from the virus.

The experts say that most folks who get it.....end up with just swollen lymph nodes, some minor fever and some headaches/joint pain.  They even suggest that some folks don't even realize what they have and don't go to the doctor.  So at the end of the spectrum.....the one-percent group.....are the ones who have a serious reaction, and end up dying.

It'll be curious how the news media informs the public and tries to educate them on the virus. 

Chemnitz

The newest hype on the Chemnitz episode?  Well.....the two guys accused in the stabbing death of the German were given a warrant for arrest.  Somehow (no one knows how), this warrant got out into the public and was put on social media......the actual document itself.

I read through the piece by Focus with the update and am a bit surprised.

Warrants typically don't ever get into public view and the cops are looking at who leaked this.  The cop or administrator who leaked it?  He will be fired at the very least, but there's some chance of a legal charge on him.

The two guys accused?

What the journalists say is that the 22-year old Iraqi was a pretty quiet guy.....friendly....had an extra full-time job (six days a week as a hairdresser).  The second guy?  The Syrian?  No job and appears to have been noted by the cops before (meaning that they've detained the guy for minor stuff).

The odds of drugs or alcohol having been the root cause of the scuffle, and the stabbing?  I tend to believe that angle of the story but cops haven't suggested that yet.

What concerns the authorities is the right-wing demonstrations that seem to go onto another level, and could impact the state elections in the weeks to come.

Turks and Lira Woes

For a week, there's been hype in Germany over the idea that the Germans might FUND a recovery pot of money for the Turks (in serious trouble).

I have sat and read through at least twenty pieces written on the topic, and will offer these four observations:

1.  No one says the amount that might be considered, which is odd....unless the amount frightens people enough to just avoid saying it in public.  A couple of billion Euro?  No.  More than 20-billion Euro?  More than likely.  Exceeding 200-billion?  I would take a guess that is just the minimum.  And that would freak a bunch of Germans out.....because there is NO way that they'd agree to that massive of a loan.

2.  Conditions.  When German loaned Greece money.....conditions were set, and it freaked the Greeks out big time.  So in this case, I'm guessing the Germans will say that the folks arrested in the coup from two years ago....have to be released.  And the Turks aren't likely to agree to that.  Other changes?  I'm guessing that a minimum of ten major conditions will be established. 

3.  Would accepting the German loan harm Erdogan's reputation?  Well....yeah.  He'll have to bend over a bit, and he's not the type to respect that type of 'force'.

4.  If you loan them the money.....will they recover?  You'd have to undo the coup damage and restructure the government spending plans.  I don't think they want to recover in that fashion.....so it's hard to envision this going well.

Am I suggesting all this German hype is for NOTHING?  Yes. 

The Statue Story

So the statue for the art fest in Wiesbaden of Turkey's Erdogan basically lasted 24 hours.  Somewhere around 9 PM last night, the city authorities talked to the cops and folks admitted threats existed, and it had to go.  So they called the fire department, and arranged for near 100 cops (they had virtually every city cop there, some Frankfurt cops, and some of the Hessen state riot police) to set up a zone and protect the crane while they plucked the statue up and carried it off.

Where to?  Unknown.  I'm guessing we will see it again somewhere in Germany.

The threats?  The local journalists claim that Turks were mostly pro-statue, and the Kurds, with some Germans.....were anti-statue.

Does it say something about tolerance?  Well.....yeah.....folks just aren't that tolerant of Erdogan at present. 

Elections and 2019 in Germany

I read over a story from Focus this morning which had to do with three state elections for 2019 in Germany.....all in eastern Germany states. 

So polling has been done....a year out from the three elections.  Pretty much guaranteed that the AfD Party (the anti-immigration folks) will take a minimum of 20-percent in all three elections. 

In fact, in Saxony, it's believed that AfD is resting at 25-percent and just five points away from the leader (the CDU, at 30 percent).  A twist and turn over the next year, and AfD could possibly win the election....although there is zero chance they can get a coalition together.  My guess is that the 2nd place winner (if the AfD did win) would have to move ahead and get two to three weaker parties.....to build a working coalition. 

If this AfD 'expansion' were to play out for the three elections (I'm suggesting 20-to-25 percent in all three elections), what does it really mean or trend into?

First, before the three state elections....there's the June EU election, where typically 55-to-60 percent of people show up to vote (using the past two elections as a measurement).  Germans typically don't care for this election that much.  It's possible that the AfD might mount a real campaign....hype things enough to make the election about EU-immigration policy, and get 25-percent of the nationally (this would be a major shock for the general public).  In turn, three months later...it'd pave the way for bigger wins in the three state elections.

Second, if you read through everything.....the SPD is really going to suffer big in these three elections and they will have to go and find bold leadership for the party 'face' in 2020 and beyond.

Third, a vote for the AfD is really more of a signal that the Merkel vision for migration and immigration simply isn't working well, and the public has to send this message for change.  However, Merkel is incapable of finding a solution, and I think the expected replacement for Merkel (AKK)....is a carbon copy, so you shouldn't expect this public anger to lessen.

Fourth and final.....we are in the midst of a curious 'fit of anger' by roughly a quarter of the population who simply aren't buying into immigration program and decisions made from 2013 to present.  Even if you asked the 'smart' folks on how to repair this and move forward, I don't think you could get a real suggestion out of them.  You'd probably have to start with the Constitution, and reword the text that says everyone gets a chance at requesting asylum, and that just isn't going to happen. 

So I'd prepare for 2019's election year and expect it to be a pretty hectic ride. 

DST Chatter

The EU came back today from that survey from two months ago on Daylight-Savings-Time.  They say 80-percent of Europeans said 'get rid of it'.

Roughly 4 to 5 million Europeans responded.  Whether the EU does something to dump it or not?  Unknown.  It'd be one of the few times that they accomplished something that peopled desired. 

Statue Story

Wiesbaden started up a city art fest this week.  Normally, most folks wouldn't care.  However, this got a bit twisted last night over a statue placed near the Deutsche Einheit (middle of town).

Some group entered a new statue into the contest.....a gold four-meter tall (roughly 15 feet) statue of Turkey's Erdogan.  His hand is stretched out and pointing.  During the night, someone ran up and painted 'F*CK' over the chest.  Cops have been put on the scene, in fair numbers.....to protect the statue.

I went by this morning at 8:00 AM and noted at least twelve cops in the area...'protecting' the gold Erdogan.  They have to allow it to stand until Sunday afternoon when the fest ends.

Was the graffiti expected?  My guess is yes.  And I might suggest that the artist wanted the chest slogan to appear.  Anti-Erdogan chatter?  Here in Wiesbaden, you have various folks who are anti-Erdogan (the Germans and the Kurds, along with some Turks).  Pro-Erdogan?  A fair number of Turks in town are a bit pro, at least in my humble opinion.

UPDATE: The authorities say that any challenge to public order.....means that the statue is taken down immediately.  I have my doubts that it'll be there through Thursday night.

Wed morning UPDATE: Well, authorities said that threats were made, and they removed the statue last night.  It's destination?  Unknown. 

Is Chemnitz Racist?

After stabbing of the German at the Chemnitz city fest (by a young Syrian and a young Iraqi).....things have heated up.  Right-wing hooligans?  Probably nearing between 800 and a 1,000 (depending on who you read the news from).

The public TV folks (ZDF and ARD) have taken with interviews with city authorities and intellectuals to suggest that the right-wing folks are long-term racists and that explains why they are doing all of these violent demonstrations.

Any truth to the suggestion?

Here's the thing....long before this Germany or Prussia business (before the 1800s)....most of Eastern Europe (to include Polish lands, Czech, the Dresden region, etc).....didn't really have a lot of foreigners pass through. It would be true that locals in this entire region (to include Chemnitz) were skeptical of foreigners and their 'intent'. 

As the Prussian inclusion occurred, and we entered into the WW I period, then onto the Nazi era of the 1930s....there were not a lot of foreigners to enter the region.

After WW II, we come to an interesting period where the East Germans did use some guest-workers (Cubans, Vietnamese, etc).  Some Germans would suggest this went over marvelously (like in Berlin), while others would suggest it didn't go that well.

Add into this the general layout of jobs in the late 1800s to the late 1930s....where Chemnitz was growing at break-neck speed (roughly 350,000 by 1939). After the war, things didn't go that well, and after the reunification.....the population settled down to the 250,000 level.  It would be truthful that abundant jobs didn't really come back and the massive industry that existed before WW II.....has never gone to any previous level.

Local political folks worried now?  Yes.  And the state authorities as well, and apparently even the federal folks are worried.  They don't want the Chemnitz business to hype up the two state elections (Hessen and Bavaria).  My guess is that it's too late.

My humble belief is that the mayor will put a curfew into effect for tonight....bring in some federal cops...and try to arrest the key players of the right-wing protests.  This will carry things over for 90 days, until the court business occurs with the two accused murderers. 

Fake Cop Story

Last year, here in Wiesbaden, just about every month.....we had a fake police episode to occur.  Most of these involved tourists as the victims.  Today, I noted an event from the weekend, where the fake cops appeared and took on a German local gal.

So this unfolds at a Aral gas station in town (one that I've been to on numerous times) near 7 PM.

The 59-year old German gal was approached by guy number one....asking her if she'd just watch his suitcase for five minutes while he went to the bathroom.  Note, he had an accent.

He comes back and points to the floor.....where a wad of Euro lays (no one says how much but it's probably into the hundreds).  He asked about it....as though it's NOT his.  Then he takes the money and leaves.

Minutes pass, and guy number two comes......asking about the lost money as if it was his.  He's angry and getting all hyper that he lost his money.  Minutes go by.

Then two guys enter (with accents) and badges....claiming to be cops. They want to see her purse.  She allows this.  They ask questions and then leave.

She returns home, and finds two-thousand Euro gone from the purse. 

Four guys involved in this.....all with accents, and she never suspected anything phoney. 

Train Brawl

Train brawls are awful rare in Germany, but when they occur.....typically....alcohol is involved.

I noticed that N-TV brought up an incident from the weekend.  What the cops say about the episode is that it was a regional train going between Basel and Freiburg.  Somewhere in the middle of this 'journey'.....twenty folks got into a huff, and brawled.

This occurred Sunday night. 

It all started shortly after the train pulled out of Freiburg, with two groups involved.

The first group were three Germans.  The second group were three Afghans. 

As the cops talk about it.....other travelers in the cabin soon got into the discussion/fight.  It is emphasized by the cops....a number of folks had alcohol issues that evening.  So it might have been twenty drunks (including the Afghans) who were in this brawl.

Typically, most train brawls would only involve fists (well, at least the ones I've heard about in the 1970s)....in this episode, cops say at least one iron bara and belt were used.  One guy is reported to have a broke nose. 

Cops report that some of the passengers hid under the seats although I kinda disbelieve that story.  These days, it'd be awful hard to compact yourself to fit under some seat. 

Naturally, at the end of this story.....folks wanted to emphasize that the train was 70 minutes late (remember, German trains are rarely if ever....late). 

What'll happen here?  A summons to court will occur, and some judge will get to some basic story.  I'm guessing the two drunks (one German and one Afghan) who started this....will get some week or two in jail.  The rest might be lucky and avoid any trouble. 

What Really Happened in Chemnitz?

If you use the local reporting (my choice), then Merkur says that a confrontation occurred.  No one says beer or drugs were involved but you just kinda wonder about that part of the situation.  The action occurred in Chemnitz....about halfway between Bamberg and Dresden (in old DDR territory and in the east of the country).

In Saturday evening (during some type of city fest downtown), a 35-year old German guy was stabbed (fairly hefty number of times.....some say more than 10), and died.  Two guys were arrested (Syrian and Iraqi).

What occurred later was a massive demonstration (around 800 locals) on Sunday afternoon.  A hooligan group (called Kaotic) called for the demonstration.  Some violence was reported.

Right now, Monday afternoon.....authorities (both at the city, and state level) are calling for calm.  Various leaders are trying to stop this from developing further.

The general problem I see....this murder....within two months of the Hessen and Bavarian state elections, has the potential to draw attention and trigger folks into going further for political change (something that the regular parties are dreading).

The Unlucky German

I kinda noticed this morning via North Carolina news....the cops had warrants, and this German individual (no age or sex given) was detained and will face court action.

The charge?  Well.....illegally voting.  Apparently, they walked in (as a German citizen) and registered themselves, and voted in the 2016 election.

The potential problems?

On the absolute MAXIMUM side, it'd go in the range of six to twenty-six years in prison, with the fine going possibly up to to $350,000.

I'm guessing the German is a bit nervous at this point and peeved at whoever convinced them that they could get away with this.

The German embassy involved?  No one says much of anything.  I would guess that they've been alerted and at least know about the path of this individual.

Typically, unless you did this election after election (multiple times), most authorities will just fine you in the range of $5k to $10k, and maybe suggest a one-year prison deal with 99-percent of it on probation.   The guy who has done this in a couple of elections?  That's the person who will likely spend two or three years in some prison. 

The sad thing here is that the German has to go and hire some US attorney, and likely spend at least $10,000 on defensive measures alone.  So you can figure....by the end, they've spent a minimum of $20,000 on this one act of stupidity. 

More Germans likely registered?  It's best not to bring this up.  But the one aspect that comes out of this....the German has a felony record now, if convicted. 

The Big Bus 'Kommt'

Focus, the German news magazine, pulled up this fascinating story that involves Germans and their belief that they are misunderstood in America.

The theme here?  A "Year of Germany" organized around 1,000-odd events and totalling near 20 million Euro (figure 24-million US dollars).  All coming to the US.

There are various pieces and parts to this....German cinematic experiences, visits to American schools, beer fests, etc.  There's even a motto conceived....."Wunderbar together" (meaning wonderful together).  A full year of culture delivered to America by the Germans.

Funding?  Well, part of this coming out of the Foreign Ministry itself, and part from the Goethe Institute, with some help from German industry players (no names are mentioned but I would take a guess that Mercedes, BMW and VW made some contributions).

The aim?  As I read through it, I think their big aim is university audiences.

One could ask the question....are US and German relations at the same level that existed in 2010?  My answer would be no.  But I would go further and suggest that relations have generally changed every single decade.  Part of this can be blamed on political shifts in both countries.  Part can be blamed on the fact that journalists tend to hype things that most people (from either side) don't care for or get excited about.

The problem with this effort?  From the brief description given, I'd say the primary angle to this is to have German intellectuals talk with American intellectuals.  Everyone will sip some fine wine....nibble on some Pfalz cheese....then chatter like a English hooligan drunk over 'wunderbar this' or 'wunderbar that'.

The lack of understanding the dynamics of fifty different states, the various stages of life in America, the drug dependency issue, why voting frustrations lead people against Hillary and for Trump, and the public anger over Washington's theatrics?

Why not put the big 'tour-bus' campaign to work in Germany, and have the intellectuals go tour the nation and discover that there's a wide variety of Germans who are angry with Berlin, a growing skeptical nature over public TV news in Germany, and an expanding economic barrier where folks cannot ever get ahead in life?

Maybe in the end, some German intellectuals on this grand 'tour' will be standing there and realizing that they really failed to grasp the change over the last decade in the US, and that there is something bigger brewing here.  But the Americans might go and point out that something seems to be brewing in Germany as well.

If I were running the 'bus'?  I'd bring in Unhellig to sing a few tunes, let Dieter Nuhl tell a few jokes, open up a pallet of dark Paulaner Salvator Dopplebock beer, and just skip all this political chatter business.  I might take six of ZDF's more intellectual folks and push them into some American-RV, forcing them to spend four weeks crossing the nation and meeting non-intellectual people, try to some American-style ribs, and spend an hour or two in drug-infested Baltimore. 

The Four Elections of 2019 in Germany

There are four elections coming up in 2019 (after this fall's Hessen and Bavaria state elections), and these four in 2019 will probably 'matter':

1.  June, the EU representative election.

2. September, Brandenburg.

3. August, Saxony.

4.  September, Thuringia.

Here's the big three issues:

First, for the EU election....typically you don't get a big crowd (a normal crowd) to show up for EU elections.  At best, it'll run around 50-to-60 percent.  There's some expectation that right-wing groups will win more than usual....causing some additional friction in the EU.

Second, both the CDU and SPD are doing badly in Germany, and I don't expect either to show any gains in the three German state elections.  I would look toward the Linke Party, the AfD, and the Greens to take a higher number than the last election in each state.

Third, Merkel-enthusiasm will have finally run out, and these elections might be chatting more about the next evolution coming to Germany. 

So mark your calendar and prepare for some chaotic politics toward the end of 2019. 

Little Iran Story

I sat and read a piece from the Arab Times this morning....over Iran.  It had this new twist to the economic crisis confronting Iran.

In the way that the US has Mexicans come and take up low-wage type jobs....Iran has the same type of 'vehicle'.  In their system, Afghans cross the border, and end up with the minimum-wage jobs.....well, up until the last two or three months.

What the Arab Times reports is that around 442,000 Afghans packed up in the first seven months of 2018, and left.  Chief reason?  Financial uncertainty, jobs diminishing, and lack of cash.

They suggest that the trend was already underway in 2017, and seem to suggest an acceleration.

I see two issues here.  First, the work slow-down is reaching the level where you can't predict economic stability.  That's a pretty bad indicator when talking economics.

Second, most of the jobs that the Afghans occupied were the same type that you see in the US, and that the Mexicans took up.....mostly because Americans refused to do them.  So you have to wonder, if the Afghans aren't there.....who exactly is going to do them?   I might go and suggest that a fair number of these jobs were in the agricultural sector, so it'll eventually affect the delivery of ag-products to the market sector.

Improvement anywhere down the line? In 2018?  No. 

The Italian Poker Play

It's a curious 'play' by Italy and NTV (commercial news) lays out the story.

As most of you know....over the past year or two, the smuggling folks have shifted from Turkey over to the waters of the south Med.  Charity groups have vessels and they loiter around to pick up folks and then 'dump' them at European ports (mostly Italy).  The Italians have been frustrated because they really don't want to continue this game, and they are stuck with migrants to feed and shelter.  The EU?  They can't invent a system to force the 28 members of the EU to 'take' refugees.

So the newest move by Italy is to suggest that they will reduce their contribution to the EU.

Go figure the amount discussed at near 20-billion Euro. 

Legally....can they do that?  There's really not a mechanism where you punish the EU by withholding money.  The EU, at least the ways that I've heard the situation described in recent months, was smart enough not to write this into the rules. 

In this case, Italy is making up a rule or standard....to see how the EU will react. 

The EU could react and say they won't send any 'gifts' to the Italian farmers, or fund any Italian construction projects (roads, bridges, etc).  Italy would just disperse the 20-billion to their own system and continue on (my humble guess).

This solution over the migrant crisis?  The clock is ticking.  June of 2019, there's another EU election and I suspect that various right-wing political groups will get serious representation in the EU (maybe up to 25-percent).  The EU really needs to shuffle this problem around and find some common ground, but it's hard to see how this gets solved.

Could other members start withholding money?  It's best not to suggest that.  With BREXIT coming and no deal on the table so far.....the UK might withhold money when they realize the deal won't occur. 

The Draft Idea

It's a ten-line story that N-TV (German commercial news) presented this morning....over immigrants.

The political chief of the CDU Party (Merkel's group) got into the middle of the discussion of compulsory service (the draft).

There's some thoughts in society now that the military ought to bring back the draft, and that retirement homes/medical groups could also participate in this deal....if a guy/gal didn't want to be in the military.

So what the General Secretary Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK) talked about was the idea that this draft-deal should now include the refugees and asylum seekers.

The thought here?  She says it'd help to integrate them into the state and society,

This draft-idea isn't selling well to the other parties in the Bundestag.....I should note that factor.

Odds of the draft returning?  I'd put it just about at zero.  The suggestion of immigrants being put into the middle of this?  A bigger negative, I think.

First, they suggest women being forced into the draft, and I can't imagine some of the more conservative type women accepting this (or their families allowing them to participate). Burqa uniforms?  Hijab uniforms? 

Second, just on language issues, I can see various current members of the Bundeswehr getting frustrated with the new draftees showing up and everything slowing down a notch. 

Third.....you come to this question....just because you made this mandatory....does that help to integrate people, or does it force people to evaluate the system and opt to leave instead of participation?  And if you can't meet the needed language situation for the Army....would you be forced to leave?

It's a discussion that go around for six weeks, and then get dropped.  The Greens, the Linke folks, and the SPD....will refuse to support this.  I might even go and suggest that the AfD will more or less laughing over the proposal.

Asylum in Germany: 2018

ARD, public TV....Channel One, had a report today over migration and asylum.

If you go by numbers.....asylum seekers are on the decline in Germany.  Added to this....the BamF folks (handling the approval or paperwork) say that they've shortened the time for review (course it helps to have fewer applications).

Right now, it appears to take near seven months to reach some approval/disapproval stage (improving two months over a year ago).  If you went back a bit more....it took almost a year to reach some conclusion.

According to the government, they spent near six billion Euro last year on asylum seekers....with most going to males (figure near two-thirds). 

On numbers....roughly 20-percent were from Africa....20-percent from other European countries, and the rest from mostly Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.

Whats all this add up to?  Basically, the large scale situation of 2015 has not been repeated, and you can put some of the success upon countries closing their borders between here and Greece, along with some folks realizing this immigration thing in Germany wasn't that brilliant of an idea.  It is a mixed bag.  The six-billion Euro a year?  Well....you would hope that after two to three years, the guy or gal would be in some job situation....earning pay and paying taxes.  So the six-billion ought to decline a bit in 2019 and 2020 (unless the spiral picks back up). 

Fifteen Things About Czech

After my four day trip into Prague, some observations:

 1. Once you cross the border, it's a fairly rural and low-thrill countryside.  You don't see much in terms of paint or landscaping, and it seems to be looking like something out of the 1950s.

2.  On food....you can expect some exceptional home-cooked type dishes and nothing ever costs more than $20.  In fact, you could go for a plate of goulash and two beers for less than $7.

3.  On beer quality, you just won't find anything that you'd say is marginally tasting.  Everything is four-star. 

4.  Crime?  I walked over a good portion of Prague and would readily say that you can't find any no-go areas.  Oh....I was told to avoid the train-station area but beyond that.....the city is extremely safe to walk around.

5.  Going there with hip or knee issues?  Forget it.  I will admit they have a great public transportation system, but you have to do at least five to seven kilometers of walking per day.

6.  Museums.  There are at least forty museums in the city......most of which are just a curiosity to see and I'd avoid them. 

7.  Churches.  It's a city of 1.3-million residents and I would take a guess that there are at least a hundred churches around the city.....of which ten of them are historic in nature.


8.  Typical character of Prague folks.  Well....they are fairly adaptable, and creative.  They don't adapt well to strict guidelines....meaning they are always flexible.  There's some Czech saying....measure twice and cut once....meaning that they are careful about decisions but once done.....they don't return to discuss the matter later.  The term 'highly educated' fits in an appropriate way.....there are book stores over the entire city.

9.  Statues.  I'm just taking a guess here, but I would suggest that over 1,500 statues of various types exist in the city.

10.  Folks drink beer.  I would suggest in a normal 10-day summer period.....guys will consume at least 20 steins (half-liter glass) in that period at a minimum.  No....they don't drink to the point of being drunk....they will simply go to the local cafe with some associate....have a 45-min chat, with a beer, and then go later to some other cafe, to have another 45-min chat with someone else, with another beer.

11.  You get the impression that Czechs in general....are industrious.

12.  As you drive and approach some intersection or decision to turn.....at best, there's one single sign there and you have a 3-second moment to make a decision.  With the exception of Italy, Czech has to be one of the worst places to operate without a GPS.

13. I stood at some point, and noticed this sign.....suggesting a Czech bit of wisdom: "Disagreements and quarrels are the spice of life. Soft speaking and tactfulness mark the weak man."  I get the impression that Czech folks will argue the heck out of something and then reach some conclusion.

14.  I stood at the old castle overlooking Prague and noticed this 40-line piece describing the state of politics in Czech back 700 years ago.  They noted that this was the place where true bureaucracy took root, and absolute requirements of paperwork started to be created.  You didn't get nothing accomplished unless Lord So-and-So signed off, or some royal Duke.  Other folks came to observe this trend, and took it back to their lands.  So the Czechs likely started all this bureaucratic mess.

15. If you were looking for element of the former Communist era still being around?  Well....there just isn't much to show it survived for fifty-odd years under a lousy system.  Everywhere you look....capitalism at work, and people in some stage of moving ahead. 

Cost of Language Training in Germany

I had this German language instructor lay out this brief 'fact' on what costs are.....in relation to immigration into Germany.

So, when you have an individual with Middle Eastern language ability only (no western script writing or knowledge)....they have to go through a prep training episode which takes a couple of months.  Then comes the intensive two block...seven-month long...training seminar system.  This amounts to roughly 7,000 Euro per person.

If you from the EU or a western civilization.....you skip all the prep training and the seminar deal would amount to around 3,500 Euro (more or less, figure 4,250 in US dollars).

Added to the frustration here is the fact that a fair number of folks from various countries.....have a marginal basic education to start with (meaning a 6th-grade to 8th-grade start-up point). 

How many Germans are aware of the cost impact?  No one can say for sure but I doubt if you can find more than a couple of thousand Germans that are within the system and recognize the cost features.

Return value?  Well....if you put 10,000 people through the course, and a year into the graduated-period, they get frustrated with the job potential and return home.....then the Germans got nothing much in return for the expenditure of money.  And remember, this only covers training, not medical care, housing, or basic subsistence. 

Drought Story

I noticed off N-TV today, an interesting piece over the drought in Germany and efforts by the German government.

First, you have to note that the Agricultural Minister is a CDU-Party member....Julia Glockner (discussed to be one of the three individuals likely to replace Chancellor Merkel in 2021).

Second, Glockner has been on some countrywide tour of farms in Germany....talking to people and connecting well.

Third, there's going to be a crisis-type funding situation created by the government to ensure farmers are 'protected'.

A bigger mess coming?  Well....no one can say when the drought ends.  The assumption is that rains will start up as they normally do in October-timeframe.

Lack of hay?  This is being discussed and you might see various farms cut back drastically on livestock.....selling off a fair portion because they simply don't have hay.

A drought across all of Europe?  No.  You can go into parts of Poland and Czech....to find regular rainfall.  In fact, on a recent trip through Bavaria.....I noted green fields and corn in a production stage.  The one curious thing is that typically.....farmers are conservative voters and the CDU kinda needs that their votes.

How to Officially Be 'Poor' in Germany

I noticed this short piece off SWR (regional public TV), talking over qualifications in Germany to be of 'poverty'.

So....any German who is making less than 60 percent of the average income (2,700 Euro at present, roughly 3,200 US dollars)....is declared in a state of poverty.  This is the qualification of being 'poor-off' in Germany in 2018.

But this is all in relation to your 'family' situation.   For example, if you were a 25-year old guy and only making 942 Euro (net)....you are poor.

If you were a 30-year old parent with one kid under six.....the limit around 1,200 Euro (net).  You are poor.

If you were a 40-year parent with two kids.....your poor status is around 2,000 (net).

When Germans talk of wage stagnation and inflation, they are basically admitting they know they are stuck, and cannot get ahead.  All of this leads to 'gifts' from the government, to ensure your survival....compliments of taxation and revenue collected.

'Leader of the Free World' Stuff

Over the past two years, I've heard this continual chatter about 'leader of the free world'....with people confessing that once President Obama passed through, the new 'leader of the free world' was Chancellor Merkel. 

It's an amusing title, with no logical beginning, ending, or rule-book attached.  You basically get the title because some intellectual news folks bestow it upon you.

If you go research the term.....it leads you back to WW II, and to the 1950s when the US emerged as a leading world power. 

Generally, you impress the intellectual folks with speeches, and stake out some kind of claim to helping the lesser nations on Earth.  Beyond that, there's not much else.  Yeah, it's like some explanation that fits on a 3x5 inch card.

Can Trump get the title of 'leader of the free world'?  No.  There's a second 3x5 inch card existing now, which basically says Trump isn't entitled to the title.  Who wrote it?  The same folks who wrote the first card.

Is this really worth discussing?  No.

What makes the US a bit different than any other nation is that when you call, and state that a 'magnificent terror' now confronts your land, and beyond anything you can handle.....you are basically asking for the United States to lay out an enormous amount of 'power'.

By 'power', it means use of funds, persuasive talks, economic boycotts, and perhaps military folks putting their lives on the line.  It means when you need some folks to land on the beaches of Normandy under hostile fire, they will do so.  It means when some city has been cut off from civilization by all roads, bridges and rivers.....we will fly ounce of food and necessities into that city.  It means men will die for some greater good.

Once you measure up this task required.....anyone can be the 'leader of the free world', but only one can deliver.  So this amusing chatter by intellectuals and journalists?  It's like talking over unicorns, zombies, and werewolves.....it's mostly fantasy stuff. 

Public TV News in Germany in a Spiral

The ultimate German nightly news show is the ARD (public TV, Channel One) nightly news at 8:00 PM.  It's a fifteen minute piece with no commercials.  The last minute is reserved for weather.  In the minute prior to the weather (plus or minus an extra minute), there might be some sports news.  So the bulk of this (twelve to thirteen minutes) is REAL news as gauged by the ARD crew....sitting in Hamburg, and likely locked into a vacuum of a particular reality that they've created.

This is my humble essay to the production and craft by the Tagesschau 'crew'.

You can go and ask most Germans over their opinion of the Taggesschau, and you'd get widely varied opinions.  Some Germans will suggest that it's absolutely all the news that you'd need as a German, and that they generally trust the crew to give an accurate view of Germany, Europe and the world. 

Some Germans would go the exact opposite direction and suggest that the Tagesschau crew are diabolical and devious.....acting as provocateurs....continually working on a particular slant or bias to the news.

So you kinda have to search through the various stories and try to find some common ground. 

How much German news do you get in a normal week?  From my prospective as an American....it's a very limited amount of German news.  With seven productions per week, adding up to 84 minutes of air-time, I would make a personal estimate that only 50-percent of the news delivered is about Germany, and a big portion of that is political in nature.  There will be an occasional update on BER (the Berlin Airport), the Stuttgart-21 project, some banking scandal, or some chatter about VW diesel crisis.  There's at least four stories a week that have to do with environmental stories (some internal to Germany....some to Europe or the World).

Murders?  This got dragged into the topic area this past week because of a German doctor murdered by an African guy (migrant), and the Taggesschau decided to avoid telling the story.  Public fury? Well, it's heated.  The bosses at ARD are trying to explain that they don't normally cover murders except in certain situations.  If this had been some terror freak and he'd killed three folks on a railway platform.....it'd probably get covered.  If this was a single guy being stabbed by a migrant on the streets of Mainz....well, no....it won't get covered.

There is a growing belief that there's enough biased nature with the public news folks.....that maybe it's not worth watching.  If you can't trust the Tagesschau folks.....well....then is it worth the monthly TV tax?  And if the ZDF 9:45 PM news is the same way.....does this spell trouble for the public TV news people?

In simple terms?  Yes, they are in trouble.

At some point in the next decade, there will be enough votes and pressure put on the 'governor's board' that supervises the ARD 'empire'.....to downsize.  They will laugh when people suggest it but every month, you see more people frustrated with the system, and the biased nature of news.  Someone down the line (maybe the CSU, maybe the Linke Party, maybe the AfD Party).....will have the voting power to take down the tax and force significant change.

I'm not saying this is positive, but they've gone to the level of defending their mechanism, and people aren't buying into the defensive position.

Political Trends

There was a curious political piece off Focus magazine today.

INSA did a poll for Focus, and the party numbers are this:

CDU/CSU: 28-percent (dismal low point)

SPD: 16.5-percent (another dismal score)

AfD: 16-percent

Greens: 13.5-percent

Linke: 12-percent

FDP: 10-percent

We are almost a year later after the national election and this combined team of the CDU/CSU and SPD to lead the government.....is instead....losing public support.  AfD?  With a marginal program, and no one much to really hype the public....they seem to be getting votes (along with the Greens).

A Little WW II Story

One of my wife's relatives pulled out a collection of items from the 1960s, and passed the collection over to the wife.  So in the midst of this family photo collection, there's this brief letter from a German Army official to notify the family of the death of the grandfather in WW II.  There are two interesting aspects to this.

First, the letter starts off with 'heil Hitler', and ends with 'heil Hitler'.  It's a phrase that became mandatory when anyone wrote off a letter in this period of the Nazis. I imagine the grandmother, upon getting this note, sat for years looking at the beginning and ending.....feeling frustrated over the need to inform her and use of the phrase.

Second, the guy notes the end, 8 January 1945....in the town of Sudargas.  It's not really filled with much info....other than there was an attack....a hand-grenade was thrown, and this guy didn't make it.

I sat and spent an hour looking over Sudargas, Lithuania.  It's an interesting layout.  This was a farming community, just a mile or two over the border from what was Konigsburg (now Kaliningrad).  The make-up in the 1930s?  Mostly all German heritage folks, with a fair number of Jewish families.

When the Germans arrived in the summer of 1941, they went into the ethnic cleansing game, and the Jewish families more or less disappeared while they were around.

Then in late 1944....with the Soviets gaining ground, they (the Soviets) decided that an additional ethnic cleansing was necessary, so they were going purge out all ethnic Germans from the Lithuania region.  Women and children were to be deported (back to Germany), and men sent to labor camps in Siberia.

The German Army, while in retreat, decided to hold a valuable road for exit out of the country, probably to help these civilians escape back to Germany.  Note, the vast majority of these ethnic Germans.....had been around there for several hundred years.  So my wife's grandfather (in the German Air Force) was pressed to serve as defense on this road that leads through Sudargas (it's the main point you'd have to pass, to exit the country).  Somewhere on that day (the 8th), he was killed.

What came after 1945 for Sudargas?  Well, with the Jews mostly gone, and the Germans exported.....the community had existed for hundreds of years had hit maximum population numbers of roughly 3,000 residents, and by the 1960s was down to around 100 to 200 folks.  I noticed the population was measured in 2010-era to be near 35.  No one ever came to fill the town back up.

It's probably a quiet town today, without much on war memorials.  What the Nazis didn't achieve....the Soviets came to wrap up the job. 

The 'German Trump' Quote

I could probably make this a 40-line essay piece but it's just not worth that.

Over the weekend, the Finance Minister (Olaf Scholz) for Germany (an SPD Party guy)....stood up and made this comment that Merkel and her party (the CDU) needed to be in agreement with him for keeping pension changes to an absolute minimum (all the way to 2040)....otherwise, they'd end up with a "German Trump".

First, he's basically saying no matter how inflation goes....he's out to screw the little guy (something that the 'old' SPD Party wouldn't do.  No one ever discusses his budget or financial background, but you have to kinda wonder about that part of his resume. 

Second, his entire hype is developed around this frightful nature over populism.  This guy, and his entire party apparatus....would not be where it is today, without all of these promises and guarantees....which all feed into....oh, yeah....populism.  They are practically handcuffed to populism whether they like the idea or not.

Third, in the build-up to the 2021 German national election....Scholz is basically 'it' for his party.  He's the Chancellor candidate that will likely come out of the remaining three years of 'talking'.  It's kinda sad but the party just doesn't have anyone that stands out.

That's the basic story.....a German minister in a frightful state over the impending arrival of the German Trump. 

EU Survey Ends

The EU closed off their survey on Daylight-Savings Time.  What they will say in public right now....roughly 4.6-million people from across the EU made a comment.  The survey is going along these lines.....if a huge number of people say 'dump DST', then the EU might go and do something that everyone is in favor and support (something rare these days).

My guess is that it'll take six weeks to break down the data and reach some conclusion on public opinion.  My wife (a German) says that virtually everyone in her office made a comment and said dump DST.  It's hard to find anyone who is pro-DST.  A few are like me.....being neutral.

The history here?

The Germans used it twice in the war period.  The first in the 1914 to 1918 period.  The second was 1940 to 1950.  After the war ended in 1945....it was discussed and hit some priority point to be dissolved in the 1949 period.

Oddly, it came back up in 1973 during the gas crisis period, and came to a political decision in 1978, with the implementation in 1980. 

A big deal?  On some unofficial German 'problem-list', it probably gets ranked into the top hundred things that Germans want 'dumped'. 

Germany and Beggars

I went to a wine-fest last night.  You have to exit the bus in the general area of the fest (Wiesbaden) and there's this 200-ft path to the entrance.  So here along this path.....a immigrant beggar had positioned himself and waited for 'donations'. The 'donations' never come.  I paused at the first booth and had a glass of wine, and continually glanced over at the guy and his effort.  Probably over 300 people passed in the next twenty minutes, and no one made any donation efforts.

On my first tour of Germany in 1978....it was virtually impossible to find beggars on the street.  Maybe over an entire year of walking around Frankfurt, at least near the train-station, you might have found a couple of guys engaged in the begging business.  It was rare.

Since 1990s, there's been this growth pattern, and I would suggest over the past five years.....it's more or less doubled.  You can walk around Frankfurt, Wiesbaden or Mainz on any given day.....finding literally dozens of folks.  I'm not even talking about street musicians (which tend to occur a fair bit as you enter the holiday season).  This is strictly a guy or gal standing there.....obviously not a German, and into the begging activity.

Cops don't say anything, and I don't think the city leadership (of any town) wants to do anything to be be perceived as anti-immigrant.  The problem I see is that the guy or gal is already on some type of assistance-pay situation with the government, and this begging isn't needed.  Oh, the guy or gal is unhappy with the amount of money that they are being given.....there's no doubt about that.  But the whole intent is that you go to the Arbeitsamt Job-Center, get a job, and raise your position in life.

German typical perception of beggars?  In a normal year, I'll witness maybe two or three Germans who put a couple of coins into the 'cups' of the beggars.....more so women-beggars than men-beggars.  No one takes statistics on this but if you just walk around on a typical work-day in the shopping district, it's a ratio of 95-percent non-German, and probably near three-quarters male in nature.

I would suggest that the typical German just isn't that keen on handing money to a street beggar.  If you engage upon this, the typical or normal response would be that if they are at a loss on money to live....you merely go to the local city Social-Help office, and present yourself.  Course, then they will take you over to the Job-Center, and start your review for a position (perhaps as a burger-flipper, or grocery stock-guy).

At some point, I expect German towns and cities to put into effect, some type of 'license' to beg, and force you to register with the local Social-Help office to get the beggar-license.

Offenburg Attack and News Reporting

In the last week, this story unfolded: A German doctor got stabbed to death in his office, in Offenburg (SW Germany).  Cops say (at least so far), this was totally a random  act.....unprovoked.   The attacker?  Twenty-six year old Somali immigrant.  Attack also took place on the assistant of the doctor.  The attacker fled the scene, and a city-wide hunt took place (at least 20 police units), and eventually, they found the Somalia guy.  Based on the news reported via Deutsche Welle, there's probably enough evidence to convict the guy, but I would imagine some mental eval will occur, and he's declared either 'nuts', or was on some type of drug-binge. 

So here's the odd part of this story.  You can find bits of the story easily within the Offenburg regional newspapers.  You can find the story with the Deutsche Welle folks, but typically it's ONLY non-Germans that read it.  Then, that's it.  ZDF or ARD?  No.

Why not the German public TV folks?  Well....this got fairly criticized there on Friday by a number of folks, and the media-observer for ARD stood up and wrote a short forty-line piece to explain that public TV does not report each and every murder in Germany.   The fact that it was an immigrant attacker?  Again, no real reason to report it. 

I went looked at the comments under the defense of no story.  Around fifty-percent of the commentary are supportive of the non-story angle told by the media-observer and agree with the effort here.  The rest?  They go at the non-story angle in various ways.

The problem I see is that Germans are more or less convinced that if a story was not reported, then it didn't happen. I know....it's rather naive, but that's the character of Germans existing.  If ARD and ZDF (their trusted public networks) don't report it....it just never happened.

Another issue is that they can explain that it was one attack, with just one dead individual and one injured individual......while if this had been an attack on sixteen people (with several dead)....they would have been more or less....forced into reporting it (my humble opinion). 

One of the commentary notes even went as far as suggesting that the ARD news staff have progressed to the level of RT-Deutschland (referring to the Russian news device which is widely deemed by ARD to be a propaganda unit than a real news group).  One can be amused by the commentary, but it's full-scale blast at ARD news team.

All of this leads back to the accusations of censorship, and probably makes Germans less trusting of the public news 'control'.  Whether they like the suggestion or not.....they are making the case for AfD to exist as a counter-weight. 

I should point out that neither ARD or ZDF reported on the African stabbing of a German on the streets of Mainz from three months ago.  In that episode, the attacker simply picked someone at random, and slashed the guy with a knife.  The German guy survived, and the search still continues on today (no, they haven't found the attacker).  You can find reporting only via local news. 

The Nurse Story

I sat and read over a ARD piece today, which discussed the problem of German nursing.

For those who aren't aware.....nursing has become this national crisis (I know, it's hard to imagine this being ranked now in the top twenty problems of Germany).

So the solution being talked and often pushed?  Go recruit nurses (certified ones) from outside of Germany.  Well....to be honest, it's generally lead off to 3rd world countries (Mexico and Albania are often mentioned, but the Philippines and various 'lesser' countries are often the target).

If you watch ARD or ZDF (both public TV networks), I would say over the past year....there's at least six mentions per week on some nursing topic or the shortage.  Public forums are now held on the topic. 

My gut feeling over the introduction of foreign nurses?  They will generally come in and readily accept the lesser wage situation, which gives management and the political folks a positive feeling, but the German nurses are looking at the use of the foreign nurses and the cost factor, then shaking their head.  I think it will only aggravate them more.....causing more to pack up and leave (for the US, Canada, Australia, etc).

At the heart of the discussion, you would be thinking that you'd go into school systems and recruit young Germans who seem to have some interest, and have them going off into a specialized school, and bring the numbers up over the next five years.  Instead, it seems to be easier to just show up in the Philippines.....hustle 150 nurses through a German language class, and twelve months later....give them a visa.

It's one of those episodes where you think you've solved some problem, and wake up a decade later to find that you actually caused a bigger problem to come and exist. 

Political Division Having Arrived in Germany?

Yes.

Whatever you see in the US and view as dividing a group of people....it's pretty much arrived in Germany and in the beginning stages. 

ARD (public TV here, Channel One) wrote up a fine piece yesterday and goes over the basic problem.  Their chief emphasis?  They talked about the way that the Stuttgart-21 railway infrastructure project was picked up by political and agenda groups, and then how it split the city of Stuttgart into two camps....since that day....almost five years ago, nothing has really been the same.

A lot of the locals in Stuttgart begged for years that the city do something about the railway and local metro service, with growth causing more problems.....the city went through a 30-year discussion and came to a monumental plan.  I personally blame the group for creating such a massive plan and it would have been better to break this up into five or six stages, but they wanted one big chunk of money, and they wanted the city to be prepared for the next century (something that virtually no city in Germany is really thinking much about....most are lucky to think strictly about 20 to 30 years down the line).

But it's not limited to just Stuttgart.  You can go and browse over the BER airport project in Berlin, and find two to three basic camps, and they argue continually over the mess.  You can bring up the opera hall in Hamburg and find two basic camps arguing over it.

You can bring up the problem with refugees and migrants, and see several different camps who are politicizing it for their 'trend'.

The welfare discussion?  Already politized.

The effort to reshape and downsize the nuke-energy sector?  Already politized.

The Russian situation?  Already politized.

The BREXIT situation?  Already politized.

The level and intensity compared to the US?  I would suggest that it's about 20-percent of what you see in the US.  You have to remember.....there are talk-radio shows, no real CNN, and internet social behavior is more limited than what you'd you'd see in the US.  The chatter or politicization? I'd hand about half of the blame off to ARD or ZDF (the two national public TV networks).  The rest would be split up.

The effort I see here is that a fair number of intellectuals, lobbyists and political figures want to drag people into a 'save-the-world' crisis that they envision, and people fall into this.....HOOK, LINE, and SINKER. 

Perhaps it is part of this human desire to 'save-the-world', but you didn't use to have these manufactured at the pace of one per week.  And for Germans, it's a tough position because 'saving-the-world' seems to give you a great feeling.  Then you kinda wake up to realize that two of your best friends aren't that fired-up, and one of them wants absolutely nothing to do with this save-the-world discussion.....so they've cut you off on friendship.

This effort by ARD to restage or reboot political discussion?  They believe an introduction to moderation will help to make society comfortable with opposing views.  Their desire is to convince you to just talk about it and maybe you can handle these save-the-world situations in an appropriate fashion (maybe saving less of the world).

My view?  It's too late to do much to affect American society, and I have my doubts that you can reboot the German spiral.  It's hard to be optimistic.

E-Bike Story

Some criminal activity unfolded in Kassel (a city to the north of Frankfurt) and it got into the HR news (regional public TV).

Most of you have seen the new e-bicycles....basically a regular bike with a battery pack added and capable of 15-to-20 kph speeds.  With some added pedaling and a straight path, you might even get up to the 40-to-50 kph speeds.

Well...cops came upon this guy who'd gone and done a custom kit change to his e-bike.  He was now capable of 100 kph.  Yes.....it's basically around 62 mph. 

Illegal?  Enough that they can confiscate the bike.  Odds of hundreds of these bikes out there?  Oh, I could believe that. 

Where'd the kit parts come from?  Australia. Anyone could apply the kit and in an hour or two.....get some turbo-powered e-bike.

Interesting picture of the bike at the web site I cited up above.  Worth a review. 

ISIS Thug Story

It's one of those things I predicted three years ago, and it has finally occurred (reported by Focus, the German news magazine).....a female refugee from Iraq who was kidnapped by ISIS thugs and made into a female sex-slave.....arrived in Germany and months later, came to be standing there in front of the Iraqi guy who bought her for roughly $100 to be his sex-slave.

About five months ago, she couldn't really cope with the stress, and packed up.....going back to Iraq.....to live with family members.

German authorities?  Well....they are concerned.

She's not making herself available for talks, and the German news media has pumped this story up to the top level.

The problem is....without firm evidence (like a statement by her and maybe some secondary evidence)....nothing much will happen.

How many ISIS thugs exist in Germany?  Unknown.  There might be dozens. 

The thing about this story is that it leaves a pretty bad taste in your mouth, and you have to start wondering about the quantity here (maybe it gets into the hundreds). 

Will it eventually (a decade down the line) end up as war-crimes?  Well....that's the curious thing that I wonder about.  All this genocide stuff in Africa?  It went the war-crimes route.....same as the Serbian crimes in the brief war. It wouldn't surprise me forty-odd guys a decade down the line get notified with cops at the door.....they are being detained and held for some court activity. 

The Great Alibi: The EU

I always thought that someone ought to go and talk to 500 Europeans (across the financial landscape) and ask them their humble opinion of the EU.  You could ask about how the EU functions, or the number of times that the guy/gal voted in an EU election, or ask why the EU needs two capitals.  And the end result would be this 400-page book which detail out some mythical 'Frankenstein-Dragon-like' creature which is mostly misunderstood.

In some ways, the 28 members of the EU need the EU to exist.....to give each country some kind of stupid alibi and just say 'we didn't make that stupid law or regulation' and then kinda grin at the camera while making the statement.

How often does the public news media cover the EU, it's proposed regulations or laws?  In an average thirty-day period, I would suggest that ARD and ZDF (the two public channels of Germany) will cover for the prime-time news and the late news (9:45 PM)....about ten times per month.  Half of these will be some harsh argument that came up in some debate session, and the rest will be some ceremony 'event'.  Beyond that....there's virtually nothing said until after a vote has occurred or some new regulation has been put into place.

You can go and ask a hundred Germans to identify who in Germany is on the EU representative list, and I doubt if you can find more than two of the hundred who can mention one single name.

The money funnel?  Well, the way it works is a devised system where the EU mandates you hand over x-amount of money, which they use to fund their internal system.  Then they go and create a pay-back system to reward various countries or special interest groups with 'gifts'.....so a portion of the money returns.  One hand.....to another, with a guy in the middle.

The intellectual sales game?  The EU is the most wonderful creation in Europe since Espresso.  A regular working-class guy?  He can't really name anything that the EU does to benefit him or his family.

So you arrive back to the title....the great alibi.  If you don't like the EU system, you'd have to go and vote, which just doesn't happen to the degree people think.  In a typical EU election (every five years), you get in the range of 45-to-50 percent of registered voters showing up.  That's twenty points less than the norm.  People don't care because there is no real accomplishment that they see.

The Teachers Story

School started back up in the past two weeks in Germany, and there's some issues that stand out.

ARD (public TV, Channel One) brought up one of these....the lack of teachers.

It's on the minds of parents, school administrators, and even students.  There simply aren't enough teachers. 

For those who haven't ever examined the system....it's not a federal type system.  Each German state (16 of them) has a responsibility to run their own system. 

The landscape affected?  All of them (elementary schools, special schools and secondary schools).

Students will point out that they are pushed into larger groups because there simply aren't enough teachers around to cover the various subjects.

ARD notes that Berlin (the city-state itself) has the biggest problem, with 1,250 teachers basically missing.

Gimmicks being looked at?  Bonuses....some of which are tied to you taking rural jobs, instead of urban teaching positions. In Brandenburg, if you were a retired teacher....they will let you re-enter the system.....keep collecting retirement pay, and get regular pay on top of that.

It's one of these topics that you can figure for the next election (2021)....it'll become a national topic and likely to be thrown around because none of the sixteen states seem able to remedy their own problem.

The problem is that young college kid is looking over the career path and seeing how the treatment is for the first couple of years, and how states 'let' you go at the end of the school-year and it's not guaranteed about job status for the new year.....well....this isn't the kind of occupation that you dream about. 

A national solution?  No, I just don't see the Bundestag as being some problem-solver in this case. I think most states are going to have to stand up some type of HR-bureau, and consider long-term paths for teachers, with more incentives.  I also would suggest that allowing non-teachers to enter into the system (those with science or math degrees) and give them some five-year pathway to gain status.....might be beneficial. 

Sarrazin in the News

Most Americans or non-Germans probably have never heard of Thilo Sarrazin.  He's one of those oddball characters in German politics that has a split crowd and journalists tend to avoid mentioning his name or his discussions.

The best description of Sarrazin?  He's fairly well known economist, and former politician.  He is (for the moment) still a recognized SPD Party member.  I should note that he's in his early 70s and generally retired.  For most of his life, he was a civil servant and around 2000....got into a major role with the German railway system (the Bahn).  Then from 2002 to 2009, he was the SPD Finance Senator in the Berlin-City Senate.  Toward the end (2010) he was even a member of the Deutsche Bundesbank Board.

Then he got into writing books, and got people fairly upset.

He's suggested that the welfare program is basically marginalized and needs a total rebuild.  He's come out in various talks with negativity over asylum and immigration.  And he suggests that the tax program of Germany needs a 'redo'.

In 2010, he suggested that the migration program was importing in a new class of lower-intelligent people and would do long-term harm to the nation.

In essence, he's a lightning rod for commentary which disturbs the general political scene.

The SPD? They'd like to just see him leave the Party, but he won't do that....and if they formed a committee to toss him out (there are rules to make that happen), it'd draw a fair amount of attention within the SPD, and likely cause some unknown number of SPD members to identify with Sarrazin, and they might be leaving as well.

So yesterday, via a short FOCUS news article....it was announced that Sarrazin is wrapping up a new book....to be printed at the end of August.  The SPD Deputy Chief....Ralf Stegner....says that the Party will review the book and see if it meets their criteria (meaning that they could toss him out).

The title of the book?  "Hostile Takeover: How Islam Blocks Progress and Threatens Society."

Yep, you can sense that it's going to draw attention around Germany, and be the final straw for the SPD to toss him out.

I would offer these three observations:

1.  Sarrazin is not an idiot and he generally does a fair amount of research, and his arguments carry weight.  I'm not saying he's always right, but in a debate....his comments bare listening to and pondering. 

2.  I would suggest that 25-percent of the nation are very familiar Sarrazin and his previous books, with a positive feeling toward him being 'correct'.  This cuts across various lines, where you could be a far-leftist or a far-right kind of individual.  You will find various SPD and CDU voters who support Sarrazin.

3.  The blocking effort by various political folks and journalists?  It's apparent and draws public review.  Instead of countering the argument, they basically want to censor or prevent public review.  I think this is a serious mistake.

Odds of the SPD tossing him out this time?  Oh, I'd say 100-percent chance. And as he walks out....probably five to eight percent of the SPD loyal voters will walk out as well.

Wiesbaden and Poverty

I sat and read through the Saturday edition of the Wiesbaden newspaper, and a long piece over child poverty in the city.

So they gathered up the statistical data and laid out their story.

From 2016 data, 52-percent of the kids on the 'west-end' of Wiesbaden are in poverty.  If you ask most locals....this is the area of town that the migrants came into during the past thirty years and have occupied.

The Kastel part of the town, opposite of Mainz?  The kids in that part of town are around 32-percent in number, in terms of being in poverty. Roughly one out of three.

So at the end of list (the least likely in poverty), is Sonnenberg, Rambach, and my village....with only four-to-six percent of kids in some poverty class. 

I asked my German wife on this, and she kinda just looked at me and said.....we just don't have poverty in our village.  These are all working class people.  In my village, there might only twenty-five total migrants or low-income Germans in the whole town.

Naturally, this poverty thing, especially with kids in poverty, is a big deal.  Everyone is determined to find some political solution to resolve this.  But then you ask how, and the conversation tends to get quiet.

Just handing out more money.....apparently doesn't work. Then you go and try to do some educational things with adults to ensure they don't waste money, and that rarely works.

The statistical thing here?  Well....Wiesbaden is a city now of 285,000 and still growing.  The trend shows that it'll hit 300,000 by 2030.  Unless the poverty rate is resolved.....the numbers will just continue in the same direction. 

Merkel's Comments on the EU

I looked at Focus magazine this afternoon....at a short 12-line piece.

Basically, Chancellor Angela Merkel did some interview and said that the current and ONLY existing regulation (the Dublin Agreement) by the EU for migration and immigration....is "non-functional". 

Then her next comment was: "According to the theory, no migrant or refugee should ever arrive in Germany.  But that does not correspond to reality."  Then she said over this idea of creating a fair distribution system (together).

If you go back to 1990....the Dublin Agreement was written out and roughly seven years later came into implementation.

It basically says.....where you land or enter, is the ONLY place where you can declare for asylum, or demand refugee status.  You can go and cherry-pick.  If you were to enter, sign papers in X-country....then go and travel to Y-country to demand asylum there?  Illegal, and they can dump you from Y-country.

The odds of getting this EU thing fixed?  Zero.

I say that because a minimum of four countries will refuse to participate, and another dozen will not hand out the kind of money that Germany gives migrants that they accept.

Adding to this 'fury' is the possibility that asylum will work itself into the EU election campaign of 2019 (June).  You might find a third of all seats occupied by far-right opposition people..

Good Video to Review

This is a good 45-minute piece where a discussion over Nazi Germany, Hitler, and economics occurs.  He actually throws a good bit of economic bits out there with historical reference.  I would recommend it, however....if economics bores the heck out of you....skip it. 

The Citizen Story

There's a short 12-line piece in Focus today, which talks about this statistical story from the German Federal Statistical Office.

Naturalized Germans (those who did all the paperwork and accomplished the requirements)....are usually not giving up their original citizenship.  The numbers?  Six in ten retain the old citizenship. There's nothing illegal about this.

Over the past year....112,000 folks became German citizens and out of that group, 68,918 kept their old citizenship.  The statistics folks say it's the highest ever....in German history.

They even note that near 90-percent of all Iraqis....are keeping their old citizenship.

Chief reason?  It's not revealed in this article.

I would go and speculate that most folks don't see a reason to dump the old citizenship.  For those over the age of forty.....if peace ever comes....they are fairly likely to return to the old country. 

It was discussed in German new this week that Assad is trying interest Syrians in Germany to return to Syria.  Some are taking advantage of the offer and going back.  No one talks numbers though.

Is this all something to worry about?  No.  But here are the Germans who've invested billions into the refugees, migrants and immigrants....kinda hoping for a full-up return on their 'investment', and it just appears to be hanging in the balance, and unsure.

Little ISIS Story

I sat and paused over this story via Focus (the German news magazine) this morning.

Back about four months ago, Focus had this short item....the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), arranged for two ISIS women (both Germans, and both accused of military action) to be let go from the Iraqi prison in Erbil, and then flown to Frankfurt.  No one disputes that part of the story.

Once in the Frankfurt region....the women were put into some type of fairly comprehensive security facility and monitored.  The BKA won't say it in a direct way, but you get this idea that these weren't the kind of women that you could trust or feel safe around.

Oddly....NO arrest warrant from the Federal Court of Justice existed at the time.  No one says why....maybe the events just led to the BKA seeing a open door to get the two women out.

So it's kinda come up now that the central government of Iraq (the folks back in Baghdad....were NOT informed of the process going on.  It was just some regional folks....acting on their own.

There's some hostile feelings going on now that the BKA folks were way out there and avoiding diplomatic channels (at least the Iraqis feel this way).

As for the dangerous nature of the two women? Other than suggesting that they guard them around the clock, the BKA folks say very little.  Just putting them into a court situation and charging them.....means you might be placing them into a prison later, and they might still be a fairly big threat.  It's hard to figure the long-term goal here by BKA....other than trying to bring German citizens (even those who were brain-washed and did some bad things) back 'home'. 

Results of a Maut Audit

Back around 18 years ago in Germany, they had this idea of forcing foreign drivers (particularly truckers) to pay a toll fee, and so this elaborate sensor system was put into place, and all truckers had to go and buy this 'kit' which would have a card attached to it, and you'd put 'credit' on the card and you'd be charged x-amount for kilometers traveled on German autobahns (note, it only involved autobahns).

It's safe to say that the idea was great but the companies found various problems and this took an extra three to four years to deliver a working sensor system.

Well....this week, SWR brought up this topic of Maut.  SWR is the regional public TV network for southwestern Germany.

An audit firm picked up three years of Maut data and came to figure that there was a OVER-CHARGE of truckers, of a sum of 300 million Euro (roughly 400-million US dollars).  It's a fair sum of money.

To be honest, the study only covered three years, so you have to go and assume for the past dozen years....there's probably near one-billion Euro over-charged.

A likely Bundestag investigation?  I suspect that this will be one of the top ten things they go after when the summer vacation period ends.  But you can figure that it'll take at least 18 months to work up a decade-long study.  It would appear, only because of limited journalism over the story, that a lot of this is simply expenses by the commercial company which manages the program and not so much taking money from the truckers. 

RyanAir Woes

Lot of angry Germans today.....RyanAir is on strike.

I glanced at N-TV this morning. It's felt in several European countries.  You can figure near 55,000 passengers affected today in this one-day strike.

Driving discussion....pilots feel underpaid.

Out of the 55,000.....the vast number of folks are in Germany (near 42,000).

Hostility brewing?  A lot of people made hotel plans and had a week of leave laid out with their boss.  Maybe the airline can try to catch up over the weekend, but I suspect there are some fairly angry folks out there.

How RyanAir fits into the airline business?  They've figured out a strategy of using minor airports and getting cut-rate deals, then paying the lowest amount of pay for pilots, aircrews, and support personnel.  They've been on this trend for over 25 years.  You can go and figure the normal cost of a Frankfurt to Rome flight, then go to RyanAir (especially two months out), and they will be 50-percent less on the ticket cost. 

The negative?  Virtually everything beyond the ticket has a cost factor.  If you want a drink while on the 90-minute flight.....cough up three or four Euro for that Pepsi.  When they say that you are landing in Rome....it's not exactly at the normal airport....it's the older airport that's another 15 minutes further out away from the city. 

Kindergeld Story

There's this topic which has been out there for months, but this week....it got picked up by the SPD Party and they are going to make it a major issue to be discussed.  Focus, the German news magazine, discusses part of this.  So the topic is.....EU residents coming into Germany with their families and registering for 'Kindergeld'..

Kindergeld?  Decades ago, the political folks built this invention into the system to 'award' families with kids.  After you paid your taxes, this was created to funnel a monthly 'reward' back to you, for each kid.  Up until age 18, you the parent, would receive this money.  If the kid still lived in your house (age 18-21), then you could still get the money.  If the kid still lived there but was in a job program or university (age 21-25), then you would still get the money.

Amount?  Right now per kid....around 190 Euro (figure 230 US dollars).  So if you had four kids....it's a fairly big chunk of money.

So what is the new discussion? Wel.....the numbers keep increasing on the money paid out by German states to recipients of other EU countries.  Mayors are now complaining about this angle of abuse (they believe it's not right to award other EU members).

In the summer of 2018, it was noted that Kindergeld is going to 268,336 kids living OUTSIDE of Germany. That's basically 10-percent growth since December of 2017. 

There's even a suggestion that the mafia elements have figured out the scheme and set up their members to benefit. 

The chief problem here in changing this?  The EU stands in their way.  They say if a person pays into the system (no matter which country they come from), they are entitled to the payment.

Various political figures have made the comment that if you cut these non-Germans out of the deal....then you could take the present money and put it to the present German kids....in particular, the Hartz IV crowd (the welfare class). 

My guess is that Kindergeld basically has to be destroyed in a complete fashion, and something has to be invented which has no relationship to a benefit.  As for the SPD getting this out front and making it a major accomplishment?  My thinking is that no matter what they invent....the EU will come back and say that they have to give it to non-Germans who reside in Germany.  So there's zero-gain in the end.