This is an essay to describe an a path that non-existent party took in the fall of 2012....and six years later....has become a problem for traditional German political parties and shaken the general strategy of political 'building'.
In the beginning....this was an idea to create a party to talk about the EU banking problems, the Euro itself, and the direction of German financial stability. When you think about it....at least in 2012, all were connected and the heavy weight of the 2008 financial collapse was the core issue. Three guys sat down....wrote the basic strategy, and one emerged as the political leader of this one-issue political party (we can laugh about this one small detail today). That first chief? Bernd Lucke.
As things go.....2013 was a great year for the AfD. They showed up in all sixteen German states, and took 4.7-percent of the national vote. However, the mandate to earn seats in Berlin? You need five-percent or more....so that was not the big thrill you'd think. Adding to this.....there's a general belief that more than half of the voters they took.....were disenchanted CDU-type voters (Merkel's party).
On the stage for asylum, immigration and refugees? 2013? Almost nothing. For well over twenty years, the yearly average was 250,000 per year and the bulk of Germans....probably well over 95-percent....would say there was no refugee problem in Germany. The system was fairly stable, and most applied from their home-country, before arriving in Germany. Other than the Balkan and Yugoslav war years....the numbers rarely went above 250,000.
The ISIS civil war deal in Iraq and Syria? It was just beginning to start up in 2013, and only a couple thousand refugees found the route totally open. It was simple....you pay some Turkish fishing vessel to take you twenty miles over to a Greek isle....then board a freighter to Athens. No one checked visas, IDs or passports. You'd board a train or bus to Skopje, then either walk a fair piece or take another train. You'd eventually get into Serbia, then onto Hungary, then reach the train station in Vienna where you'd board the last train effort to Munich, Germany. At best, you'd only have to walk half the distance.
By the end of 2013, I doubt if the German news folks had mentioned this route or the numbers coming more than a dozen times for prime-time news.
2014. Things shifted in 2014. The numbers by the end of the year? Close to 450,000 immigrants or refugees. It's now front-page news with public TV in Germany almost nightly. By the end of the year, you can divide the country into three groups.
The first is totally opposed to immigrants in mass number or this CDU-SPD vision of refugees. At best, they number maybe around 10-percent around the nation (more so in the east, than the west). The second group are the pro-asylum folks, and probably number closer to 50-percent. The third and final group? The folks asking questions....how much does this cost....how do you deport those who fail....is crime escalating because of this....who actually is running the asylum program? The question-folks probably number forty-percent. They aren't anti-asylum but they'd like to understand how this all works. Their problem is skeptical nature of the political machine in Germany, and politicians are avoiding conversations about the questions.
AfD in 2014? They are concentrating on state elections, and picking up 5-percent or more wins in various states. They are still a one-topic political party.
2015. The migration route from Athens to Munich is now front-page news, and will draw 950,000 to 1.1-million folks (there is still today an argument over the official number). The higher number? Some now suggest that corrupted entry practices (by the Germans fat-fingering the names in) caused a fake number to exist.....so the 950,000 is generally believed to be correct.
Among the Iraq and Syrians in this march from Athens....Afghans, Eritreans, Pakistanis, Tunisians, Moroccans, etc. It's not openly discussed, but the visa-approval system is geared to give extra points (approval) to the Syrians and Iraqis ONLY. So a great number of the others, are not going to be approved. Their deportation situation? A problem, because they refuse to go, and often....their countries refuse to accept them back. The fact that the bulk of the non-Iraqis and non-Syrians are young males? Well....yeah, just about everyone came to grasp this by the end of the year.
AfD in 2015? The party meeting for June of 2015 is cancelled because of the threat by new members....to flip the party into a anti-asylum party. Lucke doesn't care for this type of topic....he wants only anti-Euro. The meeting in July of 2015 goes badly, and Lucke is tossed out by a vote of members. The AfD is now on a new path....anti-immigration and demanding changes to the Merkel vision.
For the last three months of 2015, I sat and watched strong rhetoric by the public TV system (ARD and ZDF) to support the pro-asylum position. In some ways, the journalists invited criticism of public TV news and the TV tax. The 18-Euro a month TV-media tax started to get dragged out in public.
By the end of 2015, the general public trend could be laid out in three groups: the pro-asylum group was still managing around 40-percent of the public support. The anti-asylum folks were in the 10-to-12 percent range. The rest....at a growing pace...were the question-crowd (nearly 50-percent of the public).
2016. 31 December 2015 in Koln became this turning point. Germans traditionally celebrate this evening with partying, legal use of fire-works, and a midnight 'send-off'. A large collection of North African migrants gathered in Koln that night, with marginal police patrols in the standard high density areas, and chaos reigned. Twenty-four hours later, a thousand police reports would be submitted (women complaining of groping, sexual assault, deadly use of fire-works, etc). With local newspapers covering this on the 2nd (the first chance to print a paper), this became front-page news in the entire region. ARD/ZDF (the two public national networks)? Nothing.....for roughly four days. A vast amount of hostility brewed as social media carried video of the evening and the bad behavior from the mostly male migrant 'bad-boys'. By the 5th day, the ARD/ZDF teams began to arrive and now had to tell the story.
About a hundred days into 2016, it was a sharp drop in pro-asylum attitudes. A number of women's groups came out and started to address various issues (no respect for female teachers with older male migrants became a major topic). At this point, I would say the pro-asylum crowd was now around 30-percent of the nation, with the anti-migrant/asylum trend going still at 10 percent, and the bulk (60-percent) asking intense questions over the future of asylum and immigration.
The flow of refugees in 2016 into Germany? It drifted down to roughly 250,000. Chief reason? Because of a threat from Bavaria in early 2015 about building a border fence.....most every single country in this Athens to Munich route suddenly got fearful. If Bavaria built the fence, that would lock the migrant flow into their countries, and they really didn't desire that. So they built fences and literally cut of the flow in a major way. Turkey? They were offered this amazing deal, in the range of two to three billion Euro by the EU....to hold back the flow. They took the money and squeezed the smugglers in a major way.
2017. Chancellor Merkel, the CDU Party, the CSU Party of Bavaria, and the SPD Party.....all had to worry because September's national election had this AfD mixture. End result? 12.6 percent of the vote went AfD.....the bulk of this became a frustration vote being sent to the Chancellor, and the other parties.
Lets be honest....a one-single topic party can't sustain itself or build votes, unless you give them the topic to chat about. The Merkel agenda, for better or worse, wasn't looking that great anymore. Too many questions. To make the voters believe they were listening.....10,000 more police positions were created out of thin-air....to be split among sixteen states. Recruitment? Don't even bring up the recruitment issues and ongoing problems in getting another extra 10,000 folks signed up to be cops. On one hand, the government had to admit some problem existed....while signing onto massive funding for more cops....but then amusingly enough, they denied that the migrant flow had any real effect on German crime statistics. If the second were true, then why waste finding billions in the tax revenue bucket for more cops?
The refugee and migrant flow in 2017 in Germany? Figured to be near 250,000 in number. But the new problem was the immigrants on boats coming out of Libya and being 'rescued'. The rescued folks got pushed into Italian camps and Italy desperately needed them moved out.....to other locations. So the new Merkel-trend was that the immigrant program across all of the EU was broke, and they needed a EU-standard (a single directive) to fix the problem. They basically wanted a general number split-up....where you (a country within the EU) had to accept X-number of refugees each year from the EU. Poland, Czech and Hungary? They laughed because they would not accept this. To be honest, if you went to a hundred immigrants trying to enter Europe....the bulk were aiming at only two countries.....the UK and Germany. No one was aiming for Poland, Spain or Portugal (probably fifteen countries in the zero-interest category).
2018. In December of 2017....the Berlin Christmas market attack occurred (no weapons, just a truck). As the smoke cleared in 2018, a lot of the story over this one single Tunisian guy began to anger the general German public. He was a serious dope-dealer. He had various aliases and was clearing refugee 'free-cash' by doping the Germans into believing he was really a dozen-odd characters (fourteen aliases were stated at one point). He died in Italy a month later....when confronted by the cops there.
AfD in 2018? Most all of the support they are getting is frustration-related. None of the Bundestag parties (CDU, CSU, SPD, Linke, FDP, Greens) can move much out of the pro-asylum umbrella. They can talk about deportation occurring quicker....but in actual actions of deportation, a dozen things can occur to hamper every single deportation. This year, the crowd in charge of deportations screwed up on a couple of times.....deporting guys who were still on the appeals process.
The appeals line? Once you get your deportation letter....if you just raise your hand....the appeals process will start up but the system is using the normal German court system. It was never built to handle this massive number of cases. So there's a back-log. You could be waiting two to three years before the appeal is finalized. Some appeals cases are going in favor of the immigrants....but the bulk are still in favor of the original deportation notice.
Attitude by immigrants? I've probably had twenty-odd conversations (folks from Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Ghania, Morocco, etc). There are three central themes to their attitudes after two years in Germany:
1. It's way more complicated and complex than they thought. Germans make every single detail difficult to grasp and understand. Getting your Syrian license accepted? You might as well forget about that. Your educational level from the old country? Rarely if ever accepted. I talked to one Syrian journalist (young 20s, college), and he figured he'd have to do two years of German language training, to get even into a beginning position with a German paper.
2. Cost of living is ridiculous. Just about every single migrant/immigrant you bump into....will have a two-minute story to tell over cost. Most will tell you that the welfare supplement money that Germany hands out.....barely covers essentials and they desperately want a real job to climb out of this marginal pit of survival. I talked at length with one Ghanaian guy who had a terrific grocery contract offered to him (full-time job, decent pay), with just one big issue.....he had to finish the language class, pass the test (B1 level) and then pass the integration class. He figured he was still four months away, and grumbling every step of the way because he'd only get the real contract if he accomplished the tests.
3. Long term acceptance of this migration deal? Just about everyone I bumped into that is over the age of 40....prefers to go back to Syria/Iraq if the 'war' ever stops. Those under thirty? Just about every single one of them prefers to stay in Germany, period. The younger crowd sees no future in returning to the home-land.
So as we close out 2018....the landscape? The AfD isn't going away because various problems remain on the table, and the government coalition of the CDU and SPD can't really resolve the problems (other than throwing money at the issue or dragging the EU into it). Social media played some role in getting negative attention on the migration topic, but when the obvious problems were displayed....the political system is so corrupted, that it can't resolve the issues.
The most amusing issue I've seen in recent months...there's a school group in a neighboring region where they had an enormous number of Muslims move into the local area, and their kids have taken up a great deal of the capacity of the local elementary school. Well....the school authorities made up a rule at the beginning of the school-year....no pork products to be served or consumed in the school (to ensure kids don't share). German kids in the school? Most all Germans consume pork....Muslims don't. So there's some heartburn going on and some worries that this is merely the start of various problems. Again, this challenges the question-crowd in asking....how did this policy come up and ow far will it go in the future?
This is what the AfD Party gain and quick-to-fall gimmick is all about. Six years ago....they were non-existent. Today, they should be non-existent. But in order to send a message and get some change in government policy....people get stuck into a lousy choice situation.
2019? Unknown. There's a EU representative election in June, and the AfD folks or similar parties across Europe might be able to get 20-percent of the votes....based on a single topic political chat. There's three German state elections....all in eastern Germany. The AfD might actually get 15-to-20 percent of polling in each election. All of this hinged to frustration....which the opposition parties can't seem to deal with.
Friday, November 30, 2018
The 'Blood' Story
Years ago, I had a German history professor who got into this minor topic one night (night classes were always famous for leaving a traditional history class and getting into little known bits of history rarely ever discussed)....of blood libel.
So, what was blood libel? It's a gimmick (my term) for a antisemitic accusation. Something that you could accuse Jews of in German history....but mostly of a false hoax-like story.
In old Germany (going to this period between the 400s and 1700s)....some Germans would come up and accuse some Jews of kidnapping/killing some German kids (naturally Catholic or Lutheran). The reason for the kidnapping? Well....the hoax story was that Jews would use the blood of the kids as part of their secret rituals.
This gimmick worked with with folks talking about wells being poisoned (even when they weren't) or some desecrated bodies were talked about over in such-and-such village (when the event never occurred).
So naturally, you'd ask....how the heck did this 'blood' requirement come up? Well...the idiot who started the story merely suggests that you needed it for making matzos (Jewish crackers/bread) for Passover.
You can sit here in modern times and laugh over how the story got created and passed around, but in the 1400s....it easily stood up as local 'fact'. You could easily be accused...rounded up in some town with this fake story....and burned to death as punishment.
So, what was blood libel? It's a gimmick (my term) for a antisemitic accusation. Something that you could accuse Jews of in German history....but mostly of a false hoax-like story.
In old Germany (going to this period between the 400s and 1700s)....some Germans would come up and accuse some Jews of kidnapping/killing some German kids (naturally Catholic or Lutheran). The reason for the kidnapping? Well....the hoax story was that Jews would use the blood of the kids as part of their secret rituals.
This gimmick worked with with folks talking about wells being poisoned (even when they weren't) or some desecrated bodies were talked about over in such-and-such village (when the event never occurred).
So naturally, you'd ask....how the heck did this 'blood' requirement come up? Well...the idiot who started the story merely suggests that you needed it for making matzos (Jewish crackers/bread) for Passover.
You can sit here in modern times and laugh over how the story got created and passed around, but in the 1400s....it easily stood up as local 'fact'. You could easily be accused...rounded up in some town with this fake story....and burned to death as punishment.
Raid in Frankfurt
This raid on the Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt yesterday....a big deal?
I'll reference the basic story at HR (my regional Hessen public TV news).
A police search occurred with 170 officials, involving city cops, the federal cops, the city prosecutor's office, and the federal tax office......on the suspicion of money laundering. Folks say the search will continue on Friday.
The chatter here is that money was moved to off-shore 'companies' in special countries (often referred to as tax havens), and this revolves around foreign tax criminals.
I should note that a private business or two (the Geldhaus in Eschborn and a private house in Groß-Umstadt) are part of the deal as well.
What this centers on? Various news groups suggest two central employees at the bank are the chief (and perhaps only players) in this scheme. Both are over forty years old and said to be full-time employees of the bank.
Why the continual trend of money-laundering in Germany, and Germans shifting money outside of the country? Mostly over tax reasons.
About a year ago, I was reading through a business piece which chatted about a Cyprus document that showed up in Germany....identifying various private German folks who had started companies in Cyprus and used the companies to buy property, investments, freighters, etc. It was done in a way that made the Cyprus authorities happy, but denied the German government their taxation money. It used to be that you'd go to Luxembourg or Switzerland....to stage a hidden account and invest your money without German taxation going on. Both of those countries now are more transparent....making secret investments almost impossible.
The odds here that the Deutsche Bank is in trouble? I think they will find the two guys used weaknesses in the system, and avoided the normal detection 'tricks'. But the more they dig into this.....they probably will find dozens of other banks around Germany with the same weakness, and others helping to shuffle money out of the country. Who knows....there could be tens of billions being moved out of Germany yearly.
I'll reference the basic story at HR (my regional Hessen public TV news).
A police search occurred with 170 officials, involving city cops, the federal cops, the city prosecutor's office, and the federal tax office......on the suspicion of money laundering. Folks say the search will continue on Friday.
The chatter here is that money was moved to off-shore 'companies' in special countries (often referred to as tax havens), and this revolves around foreign tax criminals.
I should note that a private business or two (the Geldhaus in Eschborn and a private house in Groß-Umstadt) are part of the deal as well.
What this centers on? Various news groups suggest two central employees at the bank are the chief (and perhaps only players) in this scheme. Both are over forty years old and said to be full-time employees of the bank.
Why the continual trend of money-laundering in Germany, and Germans shifting money outside of the country? Mostly over tax reasons.
About a year ago, I was reading through a business piece which chatted about a Cyprus document that showed up in Germany....identifying various private German folks who had started companies in Cyprus and used the companies to buy property, investments, freighters, etc. It was done in a way that made the Cyprus authorities happy, but denied the German government their taxation money. It used to be that you'd go to Luxembourg or Switzerland....to stage a hidden account and invest your money without German taxation going on. Both of those countries now are more transparent....making secret investments almost impossible.
The odds here that the Deutsche Bank is in trouble? I think they will find the two guys used weaknesses in the system, and avoided the normal detection 'tricks'. But the more they dig into this.....they probably will find dozens of other banks around Germany with the same weakness, and others helping to shuffle money out of the country. Who knows....there could be tens of billions being moved out of Germany yearly.
Thursday, November 29, 2018
4050 Days
That's basically what Germans have left, before zero gas and diesel new cars are forbidden from sales within Germany. 4,050 days.
I suspect the bulk of the public really hasn't grasped the Bundestag's law or the fine details. People worrying about the x-day approaching? Zero. I don't think anyone really thinks much of it.
Legal challenges yet to come? Probably....but it'll be closer to the year 2025 where the general public challenges the law and suggests that it harm the general public in countless ways.
How this will work? I will suggest four paths likely to occur:
1. At some point around 2022 to 2025....someone will start to analyze the electrical grid and provide numbers to the public and government. I don't think the numbers will be that positive, with worry to start up that the grid isn't that robust. If you figure somewhere around 3-million cars sold yearly in Germany, and the bulk of buyers will start to flip to electrical cars around 2025 to 2028....some national self-made emergency will occur where certain communities grow fearful. This will in-turn....start a fear-buying campaign to put solar panels on houses and self-charge your own vehicle.
2. The charging stations around the country for long-distance travel? Well....you might see a handful of stations along the autobahn but it's probably one-percent of what would be needed once you arrive at 2030. This travel situation will force thousands of Germans to have a strategy of sorts for a 800 kilometer or longer trip. The idea that you might go from Hamburg across Germany, through Switzerland, and down to mid-Italy? You might feel some comfort through Germany and Switzerland, but will the Italians match the station strength of Germany? Probably not. This will create a number of problems which long-distance travel (possible for almost a hundred years) might come to an end.
3. Other nationalities that don't 'hug' the electrical trend and have to travel through Germany? I see a general decrease in gas stations by 2030 occurring but half the stations still around in 2040. But this will force people to plan on a complicated route....to ensure gas stations are along the route.
4. The national fear of blackouts? It's a harsh reality that you could have some blizzard occur in some area of Bavaria, and a 60 by 60 kilometer area is without electrical power for five or six days....leaving car owners furious about worthless car they are stuck with. You could also find hackers eager to test the electrical grid, and bringing one entire city in Germany down for twelve hours and everyone unable to recharge their car during the evening for work tomorrow.
Forced to electrical cars? More or less, and on paper....it's some Alice-in-Wonderland story. In reality? It might be Mary Shelly's Frankenstein story.
I suspect the bulk of the public really hasn't grasped the Bundestag's law or the fine details. People worrying about the x-day approaching? Zero. I don't think anyone really thinks much of it.
Legal challenges yet to come? Probably....but it'll be closer to the year 2025 where the general public challenges the law and suggests that it harm the general public in countless ways.
How this will work? I will suggest four paths likely to occur:
1. At some point around 2022 to 2025....someone will start to analyze the electrical grid and provide numbers to the public and government. I don't think the numbers will be that positive, with worry to start up that the grid isn't that robust. If you figure somewhere around 3-million cars sold yearly in Germany, and the bulk of buyers will start to flip to electrical cars around 2025 to 2028....some national self-made emergency will occur where certain communities grow fearful. This will in-turn....start a fear-buying campaign to put solar panels on houses and self-charge your own vehicle.
2. The charging stations around the country for long-distance travel? Well....you might see a handful of stations along the autobahn but it's probably one-percent of what would be needed once you arrive at 2030. This travel situation will force thousands of Germans to have a strategy of sorts for a 800 kilometer or longer trip. The idea that you might go from Hamburg across Germany, through Switzerland, and down to mid-Italy? You might feel some comfort through Germany and Switzerland, but will the Italians match the station strength of Germany? Probably not. This will create a number of problems which long-distance travel (possible for almost a hundred years) might come to an end.
3. Other nationalities that don't 'hug' the electrical trend and have to travel through Germany? I see a general decrease in gas stations by 2030 occurring but half the stations still around in 2040. But this will force people to plan on a complicated route....to ensure gas stations are along the route.
4. The national fear of blackouts? It's a harsh reality that you could have some blizzard occur in some area of Bavaria, and a 60 by 60 kilometer area is without electrical power for five or six days....leaving car owners furious about worthless car they are stuck with. You could also find hackers eager to test the electrical grid, and bringing one entire city in Germany down for twelve hours and everyone unable to recharge their car during the evening for work tomorrow.
Forced to electrical cars? More or less, and on paper....it's some Alice-in-Wonderland story. In reality? It might be Mary Shelly's Frankenstein story.
One-Lane Round-Abouts Versus Two-Lane Round-Abouts
For the typical American who might not have ever heard of around-about.....it's basically where an intersection should exist, but you've put a traffic circle there instead (no light, no yield sign, no stop sign).
As a 19-year old who'd arrived in West Germany in 1978....the driver's manual that you had to study.....had a simple description, and the various drawings to explain the scenarios. To me, it meant that you just drove right out without stopping, unless someone was approaching on the left, and you'd make this circle (maybe even a three-quarters circle), before you entered the next road. In theory, it was simple. On the entire base at Rhein Main....there was not a single circle. You had to leave the base....to find such circles.
Around the Frankfurt region in 1978-1979....when driving off-base....I probably encountered a total of six circles, and they were all one-lane round-abouts. I admit....I felt tension and unease, but you'd pay attention....make the circle, and things felt fine.
It was when I returned in 1992 (Bitburg), that I started to encounter round-abouts on almost a daily basis....always in a one-lane situation.
So the day finally came when on Ramstein Air Base.....they decided to give us the ultimate challenge....a two-lane round-about.
This is something rather unique and requires you to think prior to the entry point. If you are in the right lane of your street.....you have to (MUST) exit on the first available street. So you need to calculate this at least a hundred feet prior and put yourself into the correct point.
But if you are going onto the 2nd exit or 3rd exit.....then there's going to be a lane change in the middle of this circle. You are in effect....twisting and turning your head....thumping on the blinker....gauging traffic....then trying to move to the correct lane, at the right moment.
I suspect if you put a stress-test device on people.....two-lane round-abouts scare the crap out of folks. In the whole of Wiesbaden (a city of 285,000)....round-abouts are rare, and most people can only list the one single one at the river prior to reaching Mainz.
Do German planners avoid them? I think you will find some cities who make an effort to avoid them because it just begs for accidents. On the other hand, if you ever go over to Idstein (a town ten miles NW of Wiesbaden).....you will find around twenty-five traffic round-abouts or circles in a city with 25,000 residents. The city planner? It has to be some young guy with a sense of humor to tempt fate and challenge the public.
I've often wondered if you'd spoken to Henry Ford in this early era of automotive design and suggested that round-abouts would be developed.....he might have freaked out and gone to drinking heavy.
As a 19-year old who'd arrived in West Germany in 1978....the driver's manual that you had to study.....had a simple description, and the various drawings to explain the scenarios. To me, it meant that you just drove right out without stopping, unless someone was approaching on the left, and you'd make this circle (maybe even a three-quarters circle), before you entered the next road. In theory, it was simple. On the entire base at Rhein Main....there was not a single circle. You had to leave the base....to find such circles.
Around the Frankfurt region in 1978-1979....when driving off-base....I probably encountered a total of six circles, and they were all one-lane round-abouts. I admit....I felt tension and unease, but you'd pay attention....make the circle, and things felt fine.
It was when I returned in 1992 (Bitburg), that I started to encounter round-abouts on almost a daily basis....always in a one-lane situation.
So the day finally came when on Ramstein Air Base.....they decided to give us the ultimate challenge....a two-lane round-about.
This is something rather unique and requires you to think prior to the entry point. If you are in the right lane of your street.....you have to (MUST) exit on the first available street. So you need to calculate this at least a hundred feet prior and put yourself into the correct point.
But if you are going onto the 2nd exit or 3rd exit.....then there's going to be a lane change in the middle of this circle. You are in effect....twisting and turning your head....thumping on the blinker....gauging traffic....then trying to move to the correct lane, at the right moment.
I suspect if you put a stress-test device on people.....two-lane round-abouts scare the crap out of folks. In the whole of Wiesbaden (a city of 285,000)....round-abouts are rare, and most people can only list the one single one at the river prior to reaching Mainz.
Do German planners avoid them? I think you will find some cities who make an effort to avoid them because it just begs for accidents. On the other hand, if you ever go over to Idstein (a town ten miles NW of Wiesbaden).....you will find around twenty-five traffic round-abouts or circles in a city with 25,000 residents. The city planner? It has to be some young guy with a sense of humor to tempt fate and challenge the public.
I've often wondered if you'd spoken to Henry Ford in this early era of automotive design and suggested that round-abouts would be developed.....he might have freaked out and gone to drinking heavy.
Wolf Story
Between Hamburg and Bremen (on the north end of Germany), there's this city of Rotenburg an der Wumme....a city of 22,000 residents.
The city came up in the news today....Focus (the German news magazine). There's a bit of chaos going on.
Local gardener had gone out to the cemetery to do some landscaping work, and suddenly out of nowhere....a wolf had grabbed upon his hand as he was kneeling. Naturally, Germans don't usually anticipate this type of event and he spent a second or two eyeballing the wolf, and then noted somewhere behind the wolf....maybe a stone-throws away.....stood three additional wolves. He summarized this very quickly....the initial wolf had taken a risk, and the three others were trying to see if the guy goes down, and then they'd probably conduct the rest of the attack.
At this point, some church employee entered the scene, with a hammer.....knocking the heck out of the attacking wolf. That wolf was injured, and then ran off with his associates.
Naturally, this has riled up the local community. This pro-wolf or friendly-wolf angle by the German government (particularly the Ministry of the Environment) has probably hit some peak.
For probably twenty years, there's been an attempt to allow wolves to enter back into the wilds of Germany, and the general public have often been told that this is a good thing.
With this attack, it's first known attack on humans by wolves in decades.
What'll happen now? My guess is that some political agenda folks will hype up the wolf situation and for a year....this will be argued over whether allowing wolves to reenter the German forests was a wise decision or not. Eventually, after an attack or two on school-kids.....a hunt will be allowed, and the pro-wolf lobby effort will end.
The problem I see....if you go to one single female wolf and she has seven pups....with this roughly occurring every twelve months. You can do the math....but in one single decade, you have a massive problem brewing in one single community.
The city came up in the news today....Focus (the German news magazine). There's a bit of chaos going on.
Local gardener had gone out to the cemetery to do some landscaping work, and suddenly out of nowhere....a wolf had grabbed upon his hand as he was kneeling. Naturally, Germans don't usually anticipate this type of event and he spent a second or two eyeballing the wolf, and then noted somewhere behind the wolf....maybe a stone-throws away.....stood three additional wolves. He summarized this very quickly....the initial wolf had taken a risk, and the three others were trying to see if the guy goes down, and then they'd probably conduct the rest of the attack.
At this point, some church employee entered the scene, with a hammer.....knocking the heck out of the attacking wolf. That wolf was injured, and then ran off with his associates.
Naturally, this has riled up the local community. This pro-wolf or friendly-wolf angle by the German government (particularly the Ministry of the Environment) has probably hit some peak.
For probably twenty years, there's been an attempt to allow wolves to enter back into the wilds of Germany, and the general public have often been told that this is a good thing.
With this attack, it's first known attack on humans by wolves in decades.
What'll happen now? My guess is that some political agenda folks will hype up the wolf situation and for a year....this will be argued over whether allowing wolves to reenter the German forests was a wise decision or not. Eventually, after an attack or two on school-kids.....a hunt will be allowed, and the pro-wolf lobby effort will end.
The problem I see....if you go to one single female wolf and she has seven pups....with this roughly occurring every twelve months. You can do the math....but in one single decade, you have a massive problem brewing in one single community.
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Conviction Story
Court wrapped up yesterday with the official sentencing of a rather odd bombing-attempt that I discussed last year. The reference I'll use is ARD (public German TV, Channel One).
Back in April of 2017, we had this bomb-attempt on a soccer team bus (Borussia Dortmund, in the top league). Some people initially felt it was an Islamic jihadist guy.
The bus had just wrapped up a morning pick-up at the hotel....was leaving the grounds, and just gotten onto the secondary road (maybe two minutes from the minute that the driver had closed the door). A roadside bomb was rigged up.....the glass on the side exploded with the bus, with some minor injuries (mostly glass cuts).
Cops came onto the scene quickly, and it scared the crap out of the players.
So this one odd aspect came out. Some guest at the hotel....the day or two prior....had made a big fuss about getting a room on the front side of the hotel....facing this road (getting a full view of the bus and the bomb point). So the clerk mentioned this. The cops? They are a bit puzzled but go direct to this guy.
The 29-year old guy (from Rottenburg am Neckar) had this plan. He wanted to use bombs to kill players and sink the share price of the BVB team stock, which he'd have stock futures purchased expecting a dramatic drop in price.
It was an amazing expectation. First, the bombs failed to do the damage expected, and then this big deal about getting a full view room in the hotel.....was noted by the clerk.
Court wrapped up. Fourteen years of prison. Accusation of attempted murder, dangerous bodily injury, and the use of a explosive device.
What he would have made on the stock market? People can only speculate....but it's likely in the 5-digit range....maybe 50,000 to 100,000 Euro.
I have to admit....it's a pretty stupid idea just for a meager amount of money that he would have walked away with....if successful.
Back in April of 2017, we had this bomb-attempt on a soccer team bus (Borussia Dortmund, in the top league). Some people initially felt it was an Islamic jihadist guy.
The bus had just wrapped up a morning pick-up at the hotel....was leaving the grounds, and just gotten onto the secondary road (maybe two minutes from the minute that the driver had closed the door). A roadside bomb was rigged up.....the glass on the side exploded with the bus, with some minor injuries (mostly glass cuts).
Cops came onto the scene quickly, and it scared the crap out of the players.
So this one odd aspect came out. Some guest at the hotel....the day or two prior....had made a big fuss about getting a room on the front side of the hotel....facing this road (getting a full view of the bus and the bomb point). So the clerk mentioned this. The cops? They are a bit puzzled but go direct to this guy.
The 29-year old guy (from Rottenburg am Neckar) had this plan. He wanted to use bombs to kill players and sink the share price of the BVB team stock, which he'd have stock futures purchased expecting a dramatic drop in price.
It was an amazing expectation. First, the bombs failed to do the damage expected, and then this big deal about getting a full view room in the hotel.....was noted by the clerk.
Court wrapped up. Fourteen years of prison. Accusation of attempted murder, dangerous bodily injury, and the use of a explosive device.
What he would have made on the stock market? People can only speculate....but it's likely in the 5-digit range....maybe 50,000 to 100,000 Euro.
I have to admit....it's a pretty stupid idea just for a meager amount of money that he would have walked away with....if successful.
Conference Story
A conference starts off today in Germany and will run for a couple of days with speeches, committee talks, and some folks expressing agenda items. The conference? It's the 4th Islamic Conference of Germany.
The primary topic here? Well....a brand of German Islam (yet to be described or identified in any real terms).
ARD (German public TV, Channel One) goes and chats over the efforts of the conference for an article.
Problems? Well, from all the various groups and associations in Germany....only about a quarter of them sent someone to the conference, so it really doesn't represent the nation at large.
What German political figures will say is that they want a path going ahead which has less and less foreign influence upon German Muslims (for that, they are referring to influence from Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia).
What would German Islam look like....if it did exist? The general chatter is that human rights, respect for the Constitution, and open dialog for older traditions (meaning you could talk about things being on a list to change or modify).
The odds that German Islam might come to exist? A couple of weeks ago, there was a documentary piece from Berlin where a different version of Islam was being allowed (at least by German authorities) to exist, and it was centered around a female Mullah-like figure. Yes, it's drawing some negativity from the older traditional types but so far, they've advanced on organizing and developing a different type of Islam.
The issue I see....is that this pace or trail required......involves decades (probably well over 50 years) before you see the bulk of Muslims in Germany under some type of religious umbrella where their German brand of Islam would be far more different from the traditional stuff. Being a threat to the traditionalists? Oh yes. But at this point in the game....where can some evolutionary stage come from?
The primary topic here? Well....a brand of German Islam (yet to be described or identified in any real terms).
ARD (German public TV, Channel One) goes and chats over the efforts of the conference for an article.
Problems? Well, from all the various groups and associations in Germany....only about a quarter of them sent someone to the conference, so it really doesn't represent the nation at large.
What German political figures will say is that they want a path going ahead which has less and less foreign influence upon German Muslims (for that, they are referring to influence from Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia).
What would German Islam look like....if it did exist? The general chatter is that human rights, respect for the Constitution, and open dialog for older traditions (meaning you could talk about things being on a list to change or modify).
The odds that German Islam might come to exist? A couple of weeks ago, there was a documentary piece from Berlin where a different version of Islam was being allowed (at least by German authorities) to exist, and it was centered around a female Mullah-like figure. Yes, it's drawing some negativity from the older traditional types but so far, they've advanced on organizing and developing a different type of Islam.
The issue I see....is that this pace or trail required......involves decades (probably well over 50 years) before you see the bulk of Muslims in Germany under some type of religious umbrella where their German brand of Islam would be far more different from the traditional stuff. Being a threat to the traditionalists? Oh yes. But at this point in the game....where can some evolutionary stage come from?
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
No Drinking Zone
Generally, Germans don't make up rules about NO-DRINKING areas. But this week, I sat and read through Wiesbaden city news, and the city council made up a NO-DRINKING area for the middle of town: the Deutsche Einheit block (the German Unity block).
In the old days (when the military was in the middle of town) this was the block where all the bus traffic in town flowed into and out of. It was 'central' to everyone's movement on mass transit.
About a decade ago....Wiesbaden decided the area was crapped out....'seedy'....and needed to be renovated. So they wrote up a new mass transit plan with this moved out and away from this block. Instead, they built up a massive indoor volleyball arena (big enough for a thousand people), and built some underground grocery/parking lot.
But oddly, what developed here....as main-town met up with the Westend (the western sector of Wiesbaden) was this poorer section of town, and this Deutsche Einheit block became this place where guys (mostly young foreign men) met up and consumed a fair amount of booze. In the mix of things, statistically....there's rarely a night that doesn't go by where some argument has started up and the cops get called. Often, the argument moves onto a fistfight, or potential use of knives, if the cops don't get there in time.
So the town council said 'enough' and has made up this block area where you can't consume booze or beer.
Fixing the problem? My guess is that the guys will discuss the matter and move their meeting place a block over, or perhaps even make it in the middle of the shopping district. And the drinking, arguments, and potential fights will continue....just in a different location.
In the old days (when the military was in the middle of town) this was the block where all the bus traffic in town flowed into and out of. It was 'central' to everyone's movement on mass transit.
About a decade ago....Wiesbaden decided the area was crapped out....'seedy'....and needed to be renovated. So they wrote up a new mass transit plan with this moved out and away from this block. Instead, they built up a massive indoor volleyball arena (big enough for a thousand people), and built some underground grocery/parking lot.
But oddly, what developed here....as main-town met up with the Westend (the western sector of Wiesbaden) was this poorer section of town, and this Deutsche Einheit block became this place where guys (mostly young foreign men) met up and consumed a fair amount of booze. In the mix of things, statistically....there's rarely a night that doesn't go by where some argument has started up and the cops get called. Often, the argument moves onto a fistfight, or potential use of knives, if the cops don't get there in time.
So the town council said 'enough' and has made up this block area where you can't consume booze or beer.
Fixing the problem? My guess is that the guys will discuss the matter and move their meeting place a block over, or perhaps even make it in the middle of the shopping district. And the drinking, arguments, and potential fights will continue....just in a different location.
German Joke
German jokes rarely translate well into English, and the laugh-point usually doesn't make sense. My wife came home today and laid out this new joke she heard:
Vidal awoke in the morning and felt this was the most wonderful day in the world, and felt exceedingly happy over being a new resident of Germany....and grateful for Germans having allowed him a visa to stay. So as he started out at 10 AM....he decided that he would personally go up to a German and thank them for their hospitality and allowing him to stay.
So Vidal walked up to a guy on the street and commented over feeling great and being appreciative of his situation in Germany. The guy looked at him and responded...."Sorry, but I'm Albanian."
So Vidal walked up to the next guy on the street and commented over feeling great and being appreciative of his situation in Germany. The guy looked at him and responded...."Sorry, but I'm Russian."
So Vidal walked up to the next guy on the street and commented over feeling great and being appreciative of his situation in Germany. The guy looked at him and responded...."Sorry, but I'm Turkish."
So Vidal walked up to the next guy on the street and commented over feeling great and being appreciative of his situation in Germany. The guy looked at him and responded...."Sorry, but I'm Moroccan."
So Vidal walked up to the next guy on the street and commented over feeling great and being appreciative of his situation in Germany. The guy looked at him and responded...."Sorry, but I'm Afghan."
So Vidal walked up to the next guy on the street and commented over feeling great and being appreciative of his situation in Germany. The guy looked at him and responded...."Sorry, but I'm Tunisian."
So Vidal walked up to the next guy on the street and commented over feeling great and being appreciative of his situation in Germany. The guy looked at him and responded...."Sorry, but I'm Algerian."
Finally, Vidal looked at his watch....10:30. Then he realized....all Germans were at work.
Hint: This is where a German would start laughing.
(comment: for an American, I paused over the telling of this story by my German wife for 10 seconds because cracking a smile and realizing the German humor to the joke.
Vidal awoke in the morning and felt this was the most wonderful day in the world, and felt exceedingly happy over being a new resident of Germany....and grateful for Germans having allowed him a visa to stay. So as he started out at 10 AM....he decided that he would personally go up to a German and thank them for their hospitality and allowing him to stay.
So Vidal walked up to a guy on the street and commented over feeling great and being appreciative of his situation in Germany. The guy looked at him and responded...."Sorry, but I'm Albanian."
So Vidal walked up to the next guy on the street and commented over feeling great and being appreciative of his situation in Germany. The guy looked at him and responded...."Sorry, but I'm Russian."
So Vidal walked up to the next guy on the street and commented over feeling great and being appreciative of his situation in Germany. The guy looked at him and responded...."Sorry, but I'm Turkish."
So Vidal walked up to the next guy on the street and commented over feeling great and being appreciative of his situation in Germany. The guy looked at him and responded...."Sorry, but I'm Moroccan."
So Vidal walked up to the next guy on the street and commented over feeling great and being appreciative of his situation in Germany. The guy looked at him and responded...."Sorry, but I'm Afghan."
So Vidal walked up to the next guy on the street and commented over feeling great and being appreciative of his situation in Germany. The guy looked at him and responded...."Sorry, but I'm Tunisian."
So Vidal walked up to the next guy on the street and commented over feeling great and being appreciative of his situation in Germany. The guy looked at him and responded...."Sorry, but I'm Algerian."
Finally, Vidal looked at his watch....10:30. Then he realized....all Germans were at work.
Hint: This is where a German would start laughing.
(comment: for an American, I paused over the telling of this story by my German wife for 10 seconds because cracking a smile and realizing the German humor to the joke.
Update on Daylight Savings Time
A couple of months ago, I essayed a piece detailing the EU idea of dumping Daylight Savings Time. The poll was complete.....roughly 4.5-million responded from across Europe. Well....Focus (the news magazine) came up today to update the story.
What they suggest....some states (countries) have not been that happy over the idea. The EU promises to do more research but the earliest that it might be dumped now? March of 2021.
Why the delay? The comment is basically....there are countries which require more time to 'coordinate' this change. It basically means that some political folks can't figure out the plus or minus to this.....nor the method in which they would just exist without the time-change.
I know....it's pretty stupid.
You can go out into the German public and find that probably four out of every five Germans....are opposed to having Daylight Savings Time. Why couldn't they get it passed via the German legislature? They didn't want to handle it.
The odds that the EU will fail, and it'll never pass? I would suggest it's now a 50-50 chance that it'll stay the same.
What they suggest....some states (countries) have not been that happy over the idea. The EU promises to do more research but the earliest that it might be dumped now? March of 2021.
Why the delay? The comment is basically....there are countries which require more time to 'coordinate' this change. It basically means that some political folks can't figure out the plus or minus to this.....nor the method in which they would just exist without the time-change.
I know....it's pretty stupid.
You can go out into the German public and find that probably four out of every five Germans....are opposed to having Daylight Savings Time. Why couldn't they get it passed via the German legislature? They didn't want to handle it.
The odds that the EU will fail, and it'll never pass? I would suggest it's now a 50-50 chance that it'll stay the same.
The Chocolate Story
For those who aren't aware....there is this law in Germany that states that freight trucks have to stay off the autobahns from sun-up to sun-down on Sundays. Part of this logic is that heavy traffic occurs on Sunday, and the German authorities believe that having the freight trucks forced into parking lots and rest-stops....prevents more accidents.
Well...I was looking at local Hessen (my state in Germany) news this morning, and they were discussing this robbery that occurred at a rest-stop on the A67 autobahn around Lorsch-Ost.
The driver got up on Monday morning to start his travels with the freight truck, and found the rear door open.
Missing? 13,400 bars of chocolate.
Apparently, in the middle of Sunday evening.....someone cracked the lock on the rear...opened it, and then moved box after box of chocolate.
Going to the middle-man to sell off the chocolate? I just can't imagine some middle-guy looking over this and really offering a lot of return on this. The typical value of one single chocolate bar at a grocery? Around 1.10 to 1.40 Euro per bar. So in rough value....the robber has 15,000 Euro of something to get rid of. A middle-guy (in my humble opinion) probably won't offer more than 500 Euro on this.
Ending up at some no-name grocery? Maybe.
Well...I was looking at local Hessen (my state in Germany) news this morning, and they were discussing this robbery that occurred at a rest-stop on the A67 autobahn around Lorsch-Ost.
The driver got up on Monday morning to start his travels with the freight truck, and found the rear door open.
Missing? 13,400 bars of chocolate.
Apparently, in the middle of Sunday evening.....someone cracked the lock on the rear...opened it, and then moved box after box of chocolate.
Going to the middle-man to sell off the chocolate? I just can't imagine some middle-guy looking over this and really offering a lot of return on this. The typical value of one single chocolate bar at a grocery? Around 1.10 to 1.40 Euro per bar. So in rough value....the robber has 15,000 Euro of something to get rid of. A middle-guy (in my humble opinion) probably won't offer more than 500 Euro on this.
Ending up at some no-name grocery? Maybe.
The Grammar Story
If you follow my essays, you might notice that I routinely give a thumbs-up on German police. When you look at the recruitment pattern....the physical and intelligence tests required before you even enter the academy business....they get better personnel, and the quality over the next thirty years makes for a positive feeling among most Germans.
So I pulled up this article from Deutsche Welle....which went over an odd problem brewing with German cops and their initial training at the academy level.
Typically, once you get sent off to the police academy....there is a bit of English-language training. Because of inter-action with tourists.....English is helpful.
Well....the leadership of police have come to this observation of the rookie cops that they are getting out of the academy. These new cops...certified and ready for action.....can't write decent text in their reports....have poor punctuation, and show continual spelling errors. The leadership wants the English classes cut to some degree, and more German language classes to be 'forced' upon the trainees.
Two years ago, I sat in a German language class and the instructor brought up this issue. More and more Germans were recognizing that kids coming out of the basic German school system (grades 1 to 8).....had major problems in writing plain and understandable text. Another instructor got onto the topic of university professors in Germany now in conflict with kids who are supposed to produce written reports for university requirements...and it's all worsening in terms of readability.
From an American perspective.....one might say the same thing about kids and young adults coming out of the school and university program in the US. Text writing and poor grammar is something you have to accept now, and American professors are furious over the quality of work being produced.
The unique thing about police (doesn't matter what country you are discussing)....they have to go and produce reports each and every day. You might be writing sixty lines of text per day, and it has to be readable and make sense. You can imagine some detective doing research over one single criminal, and come to a report that might help to tie the guy to some bigger crime....with the report marginally explaining the troublesome act, and poorly written.
So I pulled up this article from Deutsche Welle....which went over an odd problem brewing with German cops and their initial training at the academy level.
Typically, once you get sent off to the police academy....there is a bit of English-language training. Because of inter-action with tourists.....English is helpful.
Well....the leadership of police have come to this observation of the rookie cops that they are getting out of the academy. These new cops...certified and ready for action.....can't write decent text in their reports....have poor punctuation, and show continual spelling errors. The leadership wants the English classes cut to some degree, and more German language classes to be 'forced' upon the trainees.
Two years ago, I sat in a German language class and the instructor brought up this issue. More and more Germans were recognizing that kids coming out of the basic German school system (grades 1 to 8).....had major problems in writing plain and understandable text. Another instructor got onto the topic of university professors in Germany now in conflict with kids who are supposed to produce written reports for university requirements...and it's all worsening in terms of readability.
From an American perspective.....one might say the same thing about kids and young adults coming out of the school and university program in the US. Text writing and poor grammar is something you have to accept now, and American professors are furious over the quality of work being produced.
The unique thing about police (doesn't matter what country you are discussing)....they have to go and produce reports each and every day. You might be writing sixty lines of text per day, and it has to be readable and make sense. You can imagine some detective doing research over one single criminal, and come to a report that might help to tie the guy to some bigger crime....with the report marginally explaining the troublesome act, and poorly written.
Property Tax Reform Coming to Germany?
Well.....maybe.
Here's the deal....the German Supreme Court (the Federal Constitutional Court) had a meeting and declared that the decades-old program of property tax (which is what really funds a good chunk of local revenue spending for cities)...MUST be redone....as the current program for property tax is unconstitutional. They were nice about the timing....giving the Bundestag about 18 months to create the next program. The chief trigger to this 'unfairness'? The basic unit of taxation was a unit value which had not been readjusted for decades (in western Germany, it was set to 1964 and in eastern Germany....it was set to 1935).
So I picked up the public TV news from ARD (public TV, Channel One) this morning.
The new plan from the German Finance Minister (Olaf Scholz, SPD Party)? Across the entire nation....the property tax will be calculated individually....for each single house, apartment, condo, cabin, palace, etc.
The qualifier is that it'll distribute the 'burden' in some fair method.
The gimmick to this? No longer will you be able to say your property tax situation for some fancy upscale 1800s villa in Hamburg is the same as some 1958-built upscale condo in Wiesbaden.
The sales gimmick to this? The claim of minimum bureaucracy.
The chief basis for each property? So they say.....net rent or mortgage cost, square meters, year of construction, site area and ground reference value (which will float depending on your upscale or downscale situation).
Screwed up? Well.....here's the deal. If you were a town of 3,000 residents and 1,500 residences (apartments, houses, etc)....having x-amount of property tax revenue....whatever system is created, has to equal or be more, than the previous system. The odds of some folks having their property tax go up by more than 20-percent? That's the threat that people worry about. You could easily see some property that had only 500 Euro a year as property tax (650 US dollars roughly) and find with the new system that it's closer to 1000 Euro a year (1,200 US dollars roughly).
My suspicion is that whatever is created....will drive some massive lawyer-hiring and legal battles going on for years to debate the fairness of their tax increase that people got saddled with. As much as the court felt the old system was unfair.....this massive legal fight over the new unfairness will be a spectacle to watch.
Here's the deal....the German Supreme Court (the Federal Constitutional Court) had a meeting and declared that the decades-old program of property tax (which is what really funds a good chunk of local revenue spending for cities)...MUST be redone....as the current program for property tax is unconstitutional. They were nice about the timing....giving the Bundestag about 18 months to create the next program. The chief trigger to this 'unfairness'? The basic unit of taxation was a unit value which had not been readjusted for decades (in western Germany, it was set to 1964 and in eastern Germany....it was set to 1935).
So I picked up the public TV news from ARD (public TV, Channel One) this morning.
The new plan from the German Finance Minister (Olaf Scholz, SPD Party)? Across the entire nation....the property tax will be calculated individually....for each single house, apartment, condo, cabin, palace, etc.
The qualifier is that it'll distribute the 'burden' in some fair method.
The gimmick to this? No longer will you be able to say your property tax situation for some fancy upscale 1800s villa in Hamburg is the same as some 1958-built upscale condo in Wiesbaden.
The sales gimmick to this? The claim of minimum bureaucracy.
The chief basis for each property? So they say.....net rent or mortgage cost, square meters, year of construction, site area and ground reference value (which will float depending on your upscale or downscale situation).
Screwed up? Well.....here's the deal. If you were a town of 3,000 residents and 1,500 residences (apartments, houses, etc)....having x-amount of property tax revenue....whatever system is created, has to equal or be more, than the previous system. The odds of some folks having their property tax go up by more than 20-percent? That's the threat that people worry about. You could easily see some property that had only 500 Euro a year as property tax (650 US dollars roughly) and find with the new system that it's closer to 1000 Euro a year (1,200 US dollars roughly).
My suspicion is that whatever is created....will drive some massive lawyer-hiring and legal battles going on for years to debate the fairness of their tax increase that people got saddled with. As much as the court felt the old system was unfair.....this massive legal fight over the new unfairness will be a spectacle to watch.
Monday, November 26, 2018
A Fake Ukraine-Russia 'Event'?
Well....here's the thing. In March of 2019....there's supposed to be a Presidential and Legislative election.
Things right now don't look great for the current President.....Petro Poroshenko (he's got around 10-percent of the polling). Chief opponent? Yulia Tymoshenko....a 57-year-old gal who is a combination of Putin-Hillary Clinton-Nancy Pelosi. She's carrying near 21-percent on polling and most journalists predict that she'd likely win.
As long as the Ukraine (with some help from Russia) can suggest some conflict is potentially there.....they can stall the election. So the idea of the March 2019 election still occurring? I'd suggest that it'll be suspended till fall of 2019.
Putin helping Poroshenko out? I might go and suggest that. As long as no missiles are fired, and no tanks are engaged.....this fake conflict could go on for months.
Things right now don't look great for the current President.....Petro Poroshenko (he's got around 10-percent of the polling). Chief opponent? Yulia Tymoshenko....a 57-year-old gal who is a combination of Putin-Hillary Clinton-Nancy Pelosi. She's carrying near 21-percent on polling and most journalists predict that she'd likely win.
As long as the Ukraine (with some help from Russia) can suggest some conflict is potentially there.....they can stall the election. So the idea of the March 2019 election still occurring? I'd suggest that it'll be suspended till fall of 2019.
Putin helping Poroshenko out? I might go and suggest that. As long as no missiles are fired, and no tanks are engaged.....this fake conflict could go on for months.
Public Forum Chatter
Last night on the public TV chat forum 'Anne Will Show' (ARD, Channel One)....they brought in five guests guests with the moderator Anne Will. The chief topic? The transformation of the welfare program (Hartz IV).
The two guests that really mattered were Jens Spahn (CDU guy (Merkel's party), started acting vocational studies as a banker....got into university and then studied politics and law, who is today the Health Minister.....and Sahra Wagenknecht (Linke Party, chief of the party, far-left political enthusiast).
There are probably twenty major sub-topics that go with the Hartz IV program....to include unemployment, job training, job placement, etc.
So at some point....the topic finally came up....forcing or pushing unemployed academics (college degree folks) into handicraft/skilcraft training.
No one really says that there is a huge number of college degree folks sitting around and collecting welfare pay. It might be curious to ask this question, but generally....as long as you didn't have a worthless degree (like French literature)....if you got laid off, you could probably get another job within three or four months. The same can be said for those with the 'Abi' who have a two-year certification in a skilcraft. The bulk (probably over ninety percent of Hartz IV recipients)....are people with no career path, who fell off-track and nothing to show for a new job.
But for some reason, in this public discussion forum....the question got tossed around if you could FORCE an academic to become a baker, or technician of some type. It was a worthless question. But they forced it toward the leftist of the group....Wagenknecht. She responded that you couldn't go and force that academic into such a situation....unless you correct the pay difference from the guy's old job and this 'lesser' job field.
It was a poor answer, and Spahn just came back and tormented Wagenknecht over the answer.
Last year, I watched some German public TV chatter and they talked about this unusual number situation developing....where more German kids were opting for college/university.....than going for an 'Abi' (the skilcraft certification). It's the first time in German history where the numbers were greater. At the time, the experts noted that this was not a practical thing to enjoy....that the numbers would give Germany shortages in the future (twenty to thirty years from now).....if the trend continues.
Do Germans watch these shows? That's another factor. The working-class Germans? I doubt if you can find more than 5-percent who might watch one single forum per month. The intellectual or academic crowd? It might be closer to 50-percent who watch at least one per month.
The general problem I see is that you have people arguing over the solution or repair needed for Hartz IV, and these are generally all academics who you might question if they really have any background or understanding. I might go and suspect that they'd just go and resolve problem X in one way.....to just re-invent the problem as problem Y for another day.
The two guests that really mattered were Jens Spahn (CDU guy (Merkel's party), started acting vocational studies as a banker....got into university and then studied politics and law, who is today the Health Minister.....and Sahra Wagenknecht (Linke Party, chief of the party, far-left political enthusiast).
There are probably twenty major sub-topics that go with the Hartz IV program....to include unemployment, job training, job placement, etc.
So at some point....the topic finally came up....forcing or pushing unemployed academics (college degree folks) into handicraft/skilcraft training.
No one really says that there is a huge number of college degree folks sitting around and collecting welfare pay. It might be curious to ask this question, but generally....as long as you didn't have a worthless degree (like French literature)....if you got laid off, you could probably get another job within three or four months. The same can be said for those with the 'Abi' who have a two-year certification in a skilcraft. The bulk (probably over ninety percent of Hartz IV recipients)....are people with no career path, who fell off-track and nothing to show for a new job.
But for some reason, in this public discussion forum....the question got tossed around if you could FORCE an academic to become a baker, or technician of some type. It was a worthless question. But they forced it toward the leftist of the group....Wagenknecht. She responded that you couldn't go and force that academic into such a situation....unless you correct the pay difference from the guy's old job and this 'lesser' job field.
It was a poor answer, and Spahn just came back and tormented Wagenknecht over the answer.
Last year, I watched some German public TV chatter and they talked about this unusual number situation developing....where more German kids were opting for college/university.....than going for an 'Abi' (the skilcraft certification). It's the first time in German history where the numbers were greater. At the time, the experts noted that this was not a practical thing to enjoy....that the numbers would give Germany shortages in the future (twenty to thirty years from now).....if the trend continues.
Do Germans watch these shows? That's another factor. The working-class Germans? I doubt if you can find more than 5-percent who might watch one single forum per month. The intellectual or academic crowd? It might be closer to 50-percent who watch at least one per month.
The general problem I see is that you have people arguing over the solution or repair needed for Hartz IV, and these are generally all academics who you might question if they really have any background or understanding. I might go and suspect that they'd just go and resolve problem X in one way.....to just re-invent the problem as problem Y for another day.
The Water Story
I lived for almost four years of my life in Tucson, Arizona. One of the odd things that I got used to....was avoiding the use of city-water, and having a water dispenser in my house, with two 5-gallon bottles delivered monthly.....while refilling on-base at a telephone-booth style water dispenser at least once or twice a month. The taste to the city-water? Well....that was chiefly the problem. No one could explain why the funny taste existed, but at least from the 'paid-water'....you got something that was non-taste.
I tell this story because it's come up today via ARD (public TV in Germany, Channel One).....that the SPD Party chief that runs the German government Environment Ministry.....wants to proceed to put water dispensers in public locations.
This would mean that you'd drive up to some gas station, or public park, or maybe grocery shop, and there would be these refill points for water bottles (either more expensive plastic, or non-plastic of course).
The driving force for this idea? Germans over the past five years have gotten convinced of a massive plastic problem existing, and they want to dump plastic in basic use.
Why not use the water out of the faucet? This is a curious thing. I probably sip at least two liters of water, tea or coffee each week....which runs out of my village water supply.....which comes off some massive water spring on the hillside overlooking the village. No taste.....perfect water. Between that, and four Evian (French commercial spring water) bottles per month....I'm pretty satisfied.
So what's this effort to push water dispensers? Basically, the pro-environment folks want you to be worried over the cheap plastic being used for most water containers.....not that it's getting out into public water-ways or on the roadside.....but that the cheaper plastic is dissolving and you are sipping the plastic particles.
True or false? Well....mostly true. No one ever made up a stupid rule about standards of plastic for water bottles. So what you see in German grocery and service station operations....is 'cheap' water bottles. The idea is that they would push you along to some extreme harden plastic container or a ceramic container.
Naturally, you might reach another point in a decade....after you've accepted this re-fill idea....that the containers are as sanitary anymore....more bacteria is starting to show up in ceramic or hardened plastic containers. But we can only solve and create....one problem at a time.
I tell this story because it's come up today via ARD (public TV in Germany, Channel One).....that the SPD Party chief that runs the German government Environment Ministry.....wants to proceed to put water dispensers in public locations.
This would mean that you'd drive up to some gas station, or public park, or maybe grocery shop, and there would be these refill points for water bottles (either more expensive plastic, or non-plastic of course).
The driving force for this idea? Germans over the past five years have gotten convinced of a massive plastic problem existing, and they want to dump plastic in basic use.
Why not use the water out of the faucet? This is a curious thing. I probably sip at least two liters of water, tea or coffee each week....which runs out of my village water supply.....which comes off some massive water spring on the hillside overlooking the village. No taste.....perfect water. Between that, and four Evian (French commercial spring water) bottles per month....I'm pretty satisfied.
So what's this effort to push water dispensers? Basically, the pro-environment folks want you to be worried over the cheap plastic being used for most water containers.....not that it's getting out into public water-ways or on the roadside.....but that the cheaper plastic is dissolving and you are sipping the plastic particles.
True or false? Well....mostly true. No one ever made up a stupid rule about standards of plastic for water bottles. So what you see in German grocery and service station operations....is 'cheap' water bottles. The idea is that they would push you along to some extreme harden plastic container or a ceramic container.
Naturally, you might reach another point in a decade....after you've accepted this re-fill idea....that the containers are as sanitary anymore....more bacteria is starting to show up in ceramic or hardened plastic containers. But we can only solve and create....one problem at a time.
On Pickpocketing
It's a short statistic that rarely gets mentioned.
For 2017, Germans saw 127,376 reported pickpocketing cases....totalling to a loss of 41-million Euro.
If you live in a highly urbanized region (Hamburg, Essen, Frankfurt, etc).....this is something that you have to think about every single day. In lesser cities.....during holiday fests (like Christmas Markets).....it continually comes up.
For 2017, Germans saw 127,376 reported pickpocketing cases....totalling to a loss of 41-million Euro.
If you live in a highly urbanized region (Hamburg, Essen, Frankfurt, etc).....this is something that you have to think about every single day. In lesser cities.....during holiday fests (like Christmas Markets).....it continually comes up.
Does the Chancellor Really 'Matter'?
An American would typically say that the individual holding the President's office.....matters. This is said in the sense that the executive form of government (all of the agencies under this 'plank' of the government)...belong to the President's office.
But is this true with Chancellor Merkel and the agencies that exist in Germany? In simple terms.....no.
The Chancellor job is given to the party that achieves the most votes in an election, or is negotiated to the coalition partner party as part of some deal (rarely if ever to happen). The individual party leadership will decide long before the election occurs.....who will be the candidate, and an internal vote will occur (it's not exactly the public determining the party possible leader).
So this Chancellor 'winner' arrives and now has to put together a coalition government with a partner party. In effect, you could have the Finance Ministry, the Budget/Finance Ministry, and the Military Ministry under the leadership of the coalition party, and thus their leaders (the opposing party) runs those agencies. If there is disagreement about something....they have a 'arguments team' which meets and goes over the problem to iron out some compromise. So what the Chancellor thinks or says in public.....doesn't always mean that much.
These national or international speeches by Chancellor Merkel? Well....she has to demonstrate some dynamic related to a German 'direction' on things, but it really doesn't mean much. She's not acting in the role of an executive running the entire government.....she's just a 'token' authority of the party.....who was deemed by the party as having the charisma or personality to attract votes. And to win a German election....you don't want an idiot, a scandal-plagued individual, or a 'Chance-the-gardner-character' (from Being There, the movie).....to run an election.
Did Chancellor Kohl realize this gimmick that he was putting into place when he recruited young Merkel from the old DDR 'ruins' to step into the lower threshold of the CDU Party? I kinda doubt it. He simply saw someone without any tainted background, who seemed to be bright and intellectual in capability, and not likely to be a scandal-magnet.
Am I suggesting these speeches that are often quoted from Merkel mean little? More or less. While often quoted and discussed at length by the news media....the general script from these speeches really have minimal impact on the government policy, unless she's got the second party (the coalition partner) to sing along with her script.
But is this true with Chancellor Merkel and the agencies that exist in Germany? In simple terms.....no.
The Chancellor job is given to the party that achieves the most votes in an election, or is negotiated to the coalition partner party as part of some deal (rarely if ever to happen). The individual party leadership will decide long before the election occurs.....who will be the candidate, and an internal vote will occur (it's not exactly the public determining the party possible leader).
So this Chancellor 'winner' arrives and now has to put together a coalition government with a partner party. In effect, you could have the Finance Ministry, the Budget/Finance Ministry, and the Military Ministry under the leadership of the coalition party, and thus their leaders (the opposing party) runs those agencies. If there is disagreement about something....they have a 'arguments team' which meets and goes over the problem to iron out some compromise. So what the Chancellor thinks or says in public.....doesn't always mean that much.
These national or international speeches by Chancellor Merkel? Well....she has to demonstrate some dynamic related to a German 'direction' on things, but it really doesn't mean much. She's not acting in the role of an executive running the entire government.....she's just a 'token' authority of the party.....who was deemed by the party as having the charisma or personality to attract votes. And to win a German election....you don't want an idiot, a scandal-plagued individual, or a 'Chance-the-gardner-character' (from Being There, the movie).....to run an election.
Did Chancellor Kohl realize this gimmick that he was putting into place when he recruited young Merkel from the old DDR 'ruins' to step into the lower threshold of the CDU Party? I kinda doubt it. He simply saw someone without any tainted background, who seemed to be bright and intellectual in capability, and not likely to be a scandal-magnet.
Am I suggesting these speeches that are often quoted from Merkel mean little? More or less. While often quoted and discussed at length by the news media....the general script from these speeches really have minimal impact on the government policy, unless she's got the second party (the coalition partner) to sing along with her script.
Sunday, November 25, 2018
This Curious German Chatter on Basic Income
For several months, 'Basic Income' has been discussed to a great extent in Germany. For those who aren't familiar with the concept.....on paper and via university thesis projects over the past decade, it's been this idea that you could bring people under a national umbrella.....where you'd assign an amount of money to them (everything for home, kids, utilities, food, etc) in one simple payment, and it doesn't matter if you work or not.....you get that 'check' each month.
The key piece to the German enthusiasm now (at least from the far left groups)? Well....they want it to be unconditional. That means that if you just sat around and didn't do anything, especially when asked to go and apply for work.....nothing would deny you the Basic Income 'check'.
A lot of people would look at this concept and naturally ask some questions.....like it appears that you'd accidentally (purposely) bump the cost up (maybe 50 to 100 percent higher than what they already pay).....so where does the extra money come from?
Back around eight years ago....some petitions came into the Bundestag and they finally agreed to do a research project, and determine some facts on Basic Income. You can actually go and review the presentation given at the end by the government reviewers.
The obvious problem they pointed out in research.....there was no known way to finance the eventual cost of Basic Income....recognizing that costs would go dramatically up and taxes had to increase somewhere.
But then they came to a more pressing issue.....on the physiological side.....they felt there would be a decrease in general motivation to go out and find work, if unemployed. While acceptable to have five to eight percent in unemployment.....if you started to find 15 to 20 percent of people just unwilling to look for work.....the whole government would likely fall apart.
Unhealthy rise in immigration.....to gain access to Basic Income? Well....this gets brought up and legally.....if you authorize the visa....you can't deny the new guy this Basic Income package.
Will something like Basic Income be implemented? I think the budget and taxation folks will freak out and raise a big stink, but there's a fair number of political folks ready to fall on their swords and accept a massive taxation problem to resolve welfare issues.
If you had some dynamic in play where people were forced into retraining and certification programs....making them employable....then you might find some reasons to accept Basic Income, but in a country of 82-million....if five to ten percent weren't that enthusiastic over such a 'push'.....there's not much of a reason to proceed forward.
The key piece to the German enthusiasm now (at least from the far left groups)? Well....they want it to be unconditional. That means that if you just sat around and didn't do anything, especially when asked to go and apply for work.....nothing would deny you the Basic Income 'check'.
A lot of people would look at this concept and naturally ask some questions.....like it appears that you'd accidentally (purposely) bump the cost up (maybe 50 to 100 percent higher than what they already pay).....so where does the extra money come from?
Back around eight years ago....some petitions came into the Bundestag and they finally agreed to do a research project, and determine some facts on Basic Income. You can actually go and review the presentation given at the end by the government reviewers.
The obvious problem they pointed out in research.....there was no known way to finance the eventual cost of Basic Income....recognizing that costs would go dramatically up and taxes had to increase somewhere.
But then they came to a more pressing issue.....on the physiological side.....they felt there would be a decrease in general motivation to go out and find work, if unemployed. While acceptable to have five to eight percent in unemployment.....if you started to find 15 to 20 percent of people just unwilling to look for work.....the whole government would likely fall apart.
Unhealthy rise in immigration.....to gain access to Basic Income? Well....this gets brought up and legally.....if you authorize the visa....you can't deny the new guy this Basic Income package.
Will something like Basic Income be implemented? I think the budget and taxation folks will freak out and raise a big stink, but there's a fair number of political folks ready to fall on their swords and accept a massive taxation problem to resolve welfare issues.
If you had some dynamic in play where people were forced into retraining and certification programs....making them employable....then you might find some reasons to accept Basic Income, but in a country of 82-million....if five to ten percent weren't that enthusiastic over such a 'push'.....there's not much of a reason to proceed forward.
The First German School Shooting
Most Germans want to cite the period in the 1960s/1970s....where this event occurred. But the truth is....it goes back to the summer of 1913, and it's an interesting story.
A 30-year old German guy by the name of Heinz Schmidt had attempted in his life to be a teacher. He had grown up in the northeastern side of Germany and probably would have been classified as a gifted student as a kid. For roughly a dozen years...he was a teacher, and then around the spring of 1912, he had some type of emotional breakdown.
No one ever goes back to research the extent of this, or the factor that led him to this breakdown. Maybe dealing with kids....maybe it was just too much stress for the guy. But in this spring of 1912....he ended up at a mental facility for a couple of months.
The details are sketchy....but toward the fall of 1912, Heinz has lost his teaching job, and the mental facilities 'handlers' seem to think he's recovered from the breakdown. So he's released.
Heinz travels west and makes his way to Bremen....roughly a 300 km move. It's very little written over the next 18 months. But on 20 June 1913....Heinz enters a school in the Bremen area. The authorities will write in their final report....that he walked in with a minimum of six pistols (for some reason, it's often suggested that maybe it was up to ten).....and 1,000 rounds of ammo.
The authorities will note in their investigation that the dealer of weapons was kinda shocked over the size of the ammo purchase and actually did contact the local police. But they didn't seem to think it was a big deal.
When Heinz was done in the school.....he'd killed four young girls (under the age of seven), and wounded at least twenty more. It should be noted....a fifth girl died when she was trying to escape and fell down a stairs....breaking her neck.
All of this shooting led to locals around the school running toward the building (without weapons) to attempt to take the guy (these were the old-fashioned Germans....not the modern day types).
In the end, it was actually the janitor of the school who managed to grab ahold of Heinz and hold him. As the cops arrived, things got pretty intense with folks kinda disturbed by the killing of young girls. The crowd wanted to lynch Heinz on the spot, and the only thing that stopped them was the waving of swords by the local police.
What happened to Heinz after this episode? This is an interesting side-note. The authorities checked out Heinz and came to the conclusion that he was 'nuts'. While normal laws would dictate that he be tried, and executed if found guilty.....they stepped around that law, and just sent Heinz to some mental facility for the remainder of his life.
Heinz lived on for another 19 years, before dying of TB....in the mental facility.
Some Germans, who know of the Bremen school episode.....will say this was the upswing on gun laws in Germany in this early period. Yes, there were a fair number of changes to the German gun laws in the Nazi-era. And yes, there were even other changes noted in the 1922-to-1924 era. But this 1913-to-1914 gun law era had an effect as well.
A 30-year old German guy by the name of Heinz Schmidt had attempted in his life to be a teacher. He had grown up in the northeastern side of Germany and probably would have been classified as a gifted student as a kid. For roughly a dozen years...he was a teacher, and then around the spring of 1912, he had some type of emotional breakdown.
No one ever goes back to research the extent of this, or the factor that led him to this breakdown. Maybe dealing with kids....maybe it was just too much stress for the guy. But in this spring of 1912....he ended up at a mental facility for a couple of months.
The details are sketchy....but toward the fall of 1912, Heinz has lost his teaching job, and the mental facilities 'handlers' seem to think he's recovered from the breakdown. So he's released.
Heinz travels west and makes his way to Bremen....roughly a 300 km move. It's very little written over the next 18 months. But on 20 June 1913....Heinz enters a school in the Bremen area. The authorities will write in their final report....that he walked in with a minimum of six pistols (for some reason, it's often suggested that maybe it was up to ten).....and 1,000 rounds of ammo.
The authorities will note in their investigation that the dealer of weapons was kinda shocked over the size of the ammo purchase and actually did contact the local police. But they didn't seem to think it was a big deal.
When Heinz was done in the school.....he'd killed four young girls (under the age of seven), and wounded at least twenty more. It should be noted....a fifth girl died when she was trying to escape and fell down a stairs....breaking her neck.
All of this shooting led to locals around the school running toward the building (without weapons) to attempt to take the guy (these were the old-fashioned Germans....not the modern day types).
In the end, it was actually the janitor of the school who managed to grab ahold of Heinz and hold him. As the cops arrived, things got pretty intense with folks kinda disturbed by the killing of young girls. The crowd wanted to lynch Heinz on the spot, and the only thing that stopped them was the waving of swords by the local police.
What happened to Heinz after this episode? This is an interesting side-note. The authorities checked out Heinz and came to the conclusion that he was 'nuts'. While normal laws would dictate that he be tried, and executed if found guilty.....they stepped around that law, and just sent Heinz to some mental facility for the remainder of his life.
Heinz lived on for another 19 years, before dying of TB....in the mental facility.
Some Germans, who know of the Bremen school episode.....will say this was the upswing on gun laws in Germany in this early period. Yes, there were a fair number of changes to the German gun laws in the Nazi-era. And yes, there were even other changes noted in the 1922-to-1924 era. But this 1913-to-1914 gun law era had an effect as well.
Saturday, November 24, 2018
Ali Story, and Court
Wiesbaden court authorities announced that the court case (murder included) against 'Ali' (the Iraqi accused of murdering a 14-year old Mainz Jewish girl)....will proceed in the early spring.
If you remember reading my essay stories back in the summer....this was a missing girl case, with the cops going to 'Ali' being suspected. I'll reference this back to a essay I wrote at the time and would lay out most of the story.
It's an odd murder episode that would be worthy of a 300 page book.
What the regional news (HR) says about the case development? There are two aspects:
1. The three basic charges coming up are murder of the fourteen year-old girl, rape of the fourteen year-old girl, and a rape charge related to an 11 year-old girl.
2. Additional charges are being discussed at this point.....over robbery, threats, and bodily harm.
Issues in getting a conviction? Well....the method in which the state folks went to Iraq to 'acquire' Ali will be brought up and some legal scholars think a year down the line after the court case....judges will throw this conviction out and allow Ali to leave Germany.
The age thing? That's another amusing aspect. On paper, Ali committed the three major offenses (worthy, if combined....of twenty years in prison)....while considered a juvenile (age 20 or younger). However, it's been point out that he misunderstood the paperwork upon entering the country and legally....he was over the age of 20 when the crimes of all three occurred. Will the judge use the right age, or the misunderstood age? If it's the misunderstood age.....he probably won't get more than six years in prison.
Front page news as the case starts up? No. I think this will be quietly covered, to avoid public anger. If you go into Mainz, probably half the population is angered by the attitude of the cops and authorities.....long before the court activity starts up.
If Ali goes back to Iraq? They could arrest, detain, and hold a separate case there.....using the death penalty. I suspect the Germans really don't want that issue to occur.
If you remember reading my essay stories back in the summer....this was a missing girl case, with the cops going to 'Ali' being suspected. I'll reference this back to a essay I wrote at the time and would lay out most of the story.
It's an odd murder episode that would be worthy of a 300 page book.
What the regional news (HR) says about the case development? There are two aspects:
1. The three basic charges coming up are murder of the fourteen year-old girl, rape of the fourteen year-old girl, and a rape charge related to an 11 year-old girl.
2. Additional charges are being discussed at this point.....over robbery, threats, and bodily harm.
Issues in getting a conviction? Well....the method in which the state folks went to Iraq to 'acquire' Ali will be brought up and some legal scholars think a year down the line after the court case....judges will throw this conviction out and allow Ali to leave Germany.
The age thing? That's another amusing aspect. On paper, Ali committed the three major offenses (worthy, if combined....of twenty years in prison)....while considered a juvenile (age 20 or younger). However, it's been point out that he misunderstood the paperwork upon entering the country and legally....he was over the age of 20 when the crimes of all three occurred. Will the judge use the right age, or the misunderstood age? If it's the misunderstood age.....he probably won't get more than six years in prison.
Front page news as the case starts up? No. I think this will be quietly covered, to avoid public anger. If you go into Mainz, probably half the population is angered by the attitude of the cops and authorities.....long before the court activity starts up.
If Ali goes back to Iraq? They could arrest, detain, and hold a separate case there.....using the death penalty. I suspect the Germans really don't want that issue to occur.
Little History Story
If you go and drive about two hours northeast of Frankfurt....you come to the city of Magdeburg. Population today? Around 240,00 folks. It is the second-largest city of Saxony-Anhalt (one of the German sixteen states).
So there is this little known story over Magdeburg....that it's been physically destroyed twice in it's history. The history piece of WW II bombings? Most people know this history. There wasn't that much left in 1945.
But the second story is rarely ever told.
When you go back to the 1630 period.....the Thirty Years War was underway. The city was figured to have around 30,000 to 35,000 people before the war started.
Because of a series of understandings, misunderstandings, and demands.....a siege started up in the early spring of 1631. It might be well to note that they weren't exactly really that positive about the Catholic Church.
When the dust and smoke finally cleared, it's figured that just about every resident of the city ended up dead (either through starvation, disease, or execution). In 1632, a Census was held and the town population was figured to be 449 folks. Most of the houses....burnt to the ground. Folks will argue over the dead number....but they generally say a minimum of 25,000 were killed in the little 'war' that occurred. The rest probably just walked away.
Historians for the most part say that the town remained just a collection of rubble and stones for at least a hundred years.
If the attack had been averted? My humble guess is that by the early 1900s....this would have been one of the top five major cities of Germany, and easily having over 750,000 residents.
The odd thing is that this story comes up in the mass murder category when Germans go over history events. The deaths of 30,000 folks.....another layer of German history.
So there is this little known story over Magdeburg....that it's been physically destroyed twice in it's history. The history piece of WW II bombings? Most people know this history. There wasn't that much left in 1945.
But the second story is rarely ever told.
When you go back to the 1630 period.....the Thirty Years War was underway. The city was figured to have around 30,000 to 35,000 people before the war started.
Because of a series of understandings, misunderstandings, and demands.....a siege started up in the early spring of 1631. It might be well to note that they weren't exactly really that positive about the Catholic Church.
When the dust and smoke finally cleared, it's figured that just about every resident of the city ended up dead (either through starvation, disease, or execution). In 1632, a Census was held and the town population was figured to be 449 folks. Most of the houses....burnt to the ground. Folks will argue over the dead number....but they generally say a minimum of 25,000 were killed in the little 'war' that occurred. The rest probably just walked away.
Historians for the most part say that the town remained just a collection of rubble and stones for at least a hundred years.
If the attack had been averted? My humble guess is that by the early 1900s....this would have been one of the top five major cities of Germany, and easily having over 750,000 residents.
The odd thing is that this story comes up in the mass murder category when Germans go over history events. The deaths of 30,000 folks.....another layer of German history.
The Duisburg 'Massacre'
This 2007 event often plays out in German newspapers or documentary pieces with five key features to the story.
1. Duisburg is a German city in the north of the country and has (since the Wall came down) been a growing empire location for mafia groups (not just Italian).
2. Somewhere in Italy in the early 1990s....in absolute mafia-territory....a carnival was held in some small town. In the midst of partying, drinking and local celebration....two mafia guys tied to one single family are accidentally killed. There are various ways this story is told, but the chief feature is that by the end of that evening's events....they lay dead. In retaliation....the family reacted and avenged the killings. This event is often called the 'San Luca Feud'. These families eventually made their way into Duisburg and the escalation followed.
3. In late summer of 2007....six guys of one particular mafia family sat in their cars....in front of a local pizzeria there in Duisburg. Within a space of maybe a minute....they were all shot dead. No German on the street that day around the pizzeria....was harmed.
4. It took German police (working with Italian police) almost a year to find and arrest the chief parties responsible for the six dead guys in Duisburg.
5. The court case? Never held in Germany....oddly enough. Somewhere in the spring of 2011....they complete the case....convicting eight folks of murder and they received life in prison.
The Duisburg cops? What they've come to admit to the general public in past five years is that there is a major significant crime situation brewing....with more than a dozen mafia groups (including Arab clans, Turkish clans, Serbian clans, etc).
Classified as a mass shooting? Yes. But if you sit and really read through the whole story (worthy of a movie script).....it's just a clan on clan murder situation.....based on a misunderstanding at some local fair in Italy in 1991.
1. Duisburg is a German city in the north of the country and has (since the Wall came down) been a growing empire location for mafia groups (not just Italian).
2. Somewhere in Italy in the early 1990s....in absolute mafia-territory....a carnival was held in some small town. In the midst of partying, drinking and local celebration....two mafia guys tied to one single family are accidentally killed. There are various ways this story is told, but the chief feature is that by the end of that evening's events....they lay dead. In retaliation....the family reacted and avenged the killings. This event is often called the 'San Luca Feud'. These families eventually made their way into Duisburg and the escalation followed.
3. In late summer of 2007....six guys of one particular mafia family sat in their cars....in front of a local pizzeria there in Duisburg. Within a space of maybe a minute....they were all shot dead. No German on the street that day around the pizzeria....was harmed.
4. It took German police (working with Italian police) almost a year to find and arrest the chief parties responsible for the six dead guys in Duisburg.
5. The court case? Never held in Germany....oddly enough. Somewhere in the spring of 2011....they complete the case....convicting eight folks of murder and they received life in prison.
The Duisburg cops? What they've come to admit to the general public in past five years is that there is a major significant crime situation brewing....with more than a dozen mafia groups (including Arab clans, Turkish clans, Serbian clans, etc).
Classified as a mass shooting? Yes. But if you sit and really read through the whole story (worthy of a movie script).....it's just a clan on clan murder situation.....based on a misunderstanding at some local fair in Italy in 1991.
German and Mass Killings
In general, you have to scrutinize the historical side of mass killings in Germany, and split them off into three categories.
The first is historical, and just admit that there is an awful of mass killings (in quantity of dead folks) prior to the 1800s, and had nothing to do with weapons.
The second is events that occurred after WW II and did NOT involve guns (like the Berlin jihadist event in 2016 with a truck involved). The 1980 Oktoberfest episode (killing 13 and injuring over 200 folks)....also did NOT involve guns (bomb was used).
So you come to the third column....mass killings over the past forty years in Germany....strictly with guns. Total? Seven. But even these have some caveats inserted....like the Duisburg event in 2007. This was actually a mafia-hit-job....on a clan group....by another clan group. The Munich Olympics episode...from 1972? That was strictly terrorist related.
The five attacks that remain?
The Koln 1964 attack at a school? Well....in this case, the guy had made up a home-made flame-thrower and brought a sword with him.....killing 10, and injuring around 20. No guns involved.
The other four? You can only find one of these who legally held a firearm....the rest were all illegally procured in nature.
The fact that of the five....four were committed on school properties? That's another curious part of the overall story.
The first is historical, and just admit that there is an awful of mass killings (in quantity of dead folks) prior to the 1800s, and had nothing to do with weapons.
The second is events that occurred after WW II and did NOT involve guns (like the Berlin jihadist event in 2016 with a truck involved). The 1980 Oktoberfest episode (killing 13 and injuring over 200 folks)....also did NOT involve guns (bomb was used).
So you come to the third column....mass killings over the past forty years in Germany....strictly with guns. Total? Seven. But even these have some caveats inserted....like the Duisburg event in 2007. This was actually a mafia-hit-job....on a clan group....by another clan group. The Munich Olympics episode...from 1972? That was strictly terrorist related.
The five attacks that remain?
The Koln 1964 attack at a school? Well....in this case, the guy had made up a home-made flame-thrower and brought a sword with him.....killing 10, and injuring around 20. No guns involved.
The other four? You can only find one of these who legally held a firearm....the rest were all illegally procured in nature.
The fact that of the five....four were committed on school properties? That's another curious part of the overall story.
German Railway Service Stumbling?
If you go and ask a German who regularly travels by rail (long-distance or local)....the majority will now say (with some explanations ready to follow)....that service isn't as reliable as it was two or three decades ago.
The term often used? "Engpasse". It basically means....bottlenecks.
This relates to this network that has been conceived and built since WW II....that handles local, long-distance and freight traffic.
The sum needed? There was a two-day conference this week, and a lot of chatter to come after this. ARD, the public TV network (Channel One).....discussed this in a news piece. The sum of fifty billion Euro gets thrown around.
The problem here, with all the issues that exist....the Bahn is a commercialized network operation.....not a government entity. The government will give them grants to cover projects or enhancements....but the Bahn relies on tickets to pay for the normal operations.
I sat last night and watched a 30-minute documentary piece from NDR (regional public TV network from north Germany).....featuring a drawn-out story on the failures of the railway network in the north....near Sylt Island. There's a lot of hostility brewing with locals....waiting on some massive resolution or repair to the railway service.....having almost no confidence in the regional folks fixing this. If you go to the link, the 30-minute video is there to view (all in German).
My take on the problem is that urban-Germany (figure around forty significant cities around the nation) all got bulked-up in the 1960s to 1980s....and they need to go back to resolve issues with the minor things. But if you attempted this....you'd have to go and expect a current round-trip train ticket for 30 kilometers to go from 200-Euro a month ($250 US dollars) to 350-Euro a month ($425 US dollars)....way more than a German would pay.
The general get-around-this-problem chatter? The Greens want a simple answer....nationalize all of the railway services and just pay for the extra stuff via normal regular taxes....meaning everyone would see their tax rates go up.
The amusing thing (from my prospective)....if you go around Europe, no one else (with maybe the exception of the Dutch) has the impressive railway services like the Germans do. Well....yeah, I admit....the toilets onboard are often questionable in terms of being operational. I admit....the AC capability of the ICE-trains is often dismal. I admit....there's always a 10-percent chance that the coffee machine on the long-distance trains won't be working when you want a coffee. I admit that 10-percent of the ticket machines that I approach and attempt to use....are out-of-order. But the bulk of traffic runs on time, and it's awful rare for accidents to occur.
The term often used? "Engpasse". It basically means....bottlenecks.
This relates to this network that has been conceived and built since WW II....that handles local, long-distance and freight traffic.
The sum needed? There was a two-day conference this week, and a lot of chatter to come after this. ARD, the public TV network (Channel One).....discussed this in a news piece. The sum of fifty billion Euro gets thrown around.
The problem here, with all the issues that exist....the Bahn is a commercialized network operation.....not a government entity. The government will give them grants to cover projects or enhancements....but the Bahn relies on tickets to pay for the normal operations.
I sat last night and watched a 30-minute documentary piece from NDR (regional public TV network from north Germany).....featuring a drawn-out story on the failures of the railway network in the north....near Sylt Island. There's a lot of hostility brewing with locals....waiting on some massive resolution or repair to the railway service.....having almost no confidence in the regional folks fixing this. If you go to the link, the 30-minute video is there to view (all in German).
My take on the problem is that urban-Germany (figure around forty significant cities around the nation) all got bulked-up in the 1960s to 1980s....and they need to go back to resolve issues with the minor things. But if you attempted this....you'd have to go and expect a current round-trip train ticket for 30 kilometers to go from 200-Euro a month ($250 US dollars) to 350-Euro a month ($425 US dollars)....way more than a German would pay.
The general get-around-this-problem chatter? The Greens want a simple answer....nationalize all of the railway services and just pay for the extra stuff via normal regular taxes....meaning everyone would see their tax rates go up.
The amusing thing (from my prospective)....if you go around Europe, no one else (with maybe the exception of the Dutch) has the impressive railway services like the Germans do. Well....yeah, I admit....the toilets onboard are often questionable in terms of being operational. I admit....the AC capability of the ICE-trains is often dismal. I admit....there's always a 10-percent chance that the coffee machine on the long-distance trains won't be working when you want a coffee. I admit that 10-percent of the ticket machines that I approach and attempt to use....are out-of-order. But the bulk of traffic runs on time, and it's awful rare for accidents to occur.
V-Man Story
It's been almost two years since the Berlin mass killing (with a truck) at the Christmas Market (12 dead and roughly 30 to 40 injured). The jihadist-guy involved....Anis Amri....a Tunisian asylum applicant to Germany. Amri had come into Europe back in 2011...saying at that point that he was underage. The Italians (initially responsible for him) found him chiefly responsible for a immigration center riot, which led to the facility being set on fire. A court episode unfolded and he was sent off to four years of prison. He serves out most of this...given some time-off, and then gets ordered to return to Tunisia. Tunisia in this cases....refuses the guy. Amri realizes most of the game is heading down-hill.....then runs off to Germany (arriving in 2015). Roughly five months pass before he even applies for asylum.
The aliases game while in Germany? Well...this is part of the overall story. Presently, Germans will agree that he had a minimum of fourteen aliases and was collecting refugee-money on these.
Amri's end? Roughly a couple days after the truck attack in Berlin.....Italian cops accidentally stumble upon the guy and he's shot dead.
So the authorities went back to understand this whole story about Amri. This week (almost two years after the attack)....N-TV (German commercial news network) reported this morning that the Berlin authorities now kinda admit that three of their undercover guys (often the term V-men is used) knew Amri in the year prior to the attack.
The undercover status? It would appear that they had various men who were infiltrating the Islamic network in Germany and getting inside of the jihadist circle. Knowing of Amri's plan? There's no indication of that. It's just odd that it took two years for the authorities to admit this little minor detail.
The aliases game while in Germany? Well...this is part of the overall story. Presently, Germans will agree that he had a minimum of fourteen aliases and was collecting refugee-money on these.
Amri's end? Roughly a couple days after the truck attack in Berlin.....Italian cops accidentally stumble upon the guy and he's shot dead.
So the authorities went back to understand this whole story about Amri. This week (almost two years after the attack)....N-TV (German commercial news network) reported this morning that the Berlin authorities now kinda admit that three of their undercover guys (often the term V-men is used) knew Amri in the year prior to the attack.
The undercover status? It would appear that they had various men who were infiltrating the Islamic network in Germany and getting inside of the jihadist circle. Knowing of Amri's plan? There's no indication of that. It's just odd that it took two years for the authorities to admit this little minor detail.
Thursday, November 22, 2018
Why Mass Shootings Are Rare in Germany
I could make this a 300-line essay, but it really comes down to three essential factors, which won't work in the US....to the degree that Germans use them.
First, this gun-license business. While there might be six-million license weapons within Germany (82-million)....after you've been through this 'test of sorts'.....knowing full well that that the license could easily be taken, you don't go and do stupid things. With just one single police report of you intimidating or threatening your neighbor.....the local cops can revoke your license in a matter of minutes, and judges won't go and flip it back unless there is hard evidence that supports your situation. You can go and talk to any German hunter or gun-enthusiast, and they will be extremely serious about their situation and behavior.
Second, Germany is totally serious about nut-cases. It really doesn't take much for some judge to hold you....force you in for a review of your mental state....then confirm you to a mental facility (permanently).
Third, this odd relationship between behavioral control drugs, doctors prescribing them, and threats. If you have some German adult who has delusions, and the German doctor decides some new drug will control this.....then that's the end of a potential gun-licensed individual. You can look across at the majority of US mass murders, and how legal/illegal drugs fit into the profile of the guy, and if he'd been in Germany....that's the end of his access to a gun-license or weapon.
But if you attempted to take the three methods described here and import them into the US? All will be met with various arguments....some in favor of the Constitutional right to a weapon (even if you are mentally insane)...some in favor of the mentally insane to be free and wandering the streets. And some will argue that the legal/illegal drug situation cannot be controlled.
I won't go and suggest that Germany is 'free' of mass murders, but once you use this three-method 'trick', it really decreases the various acts of violence. Today? Well....you have to worry more about knife attacks in urban centers of Germany.....than gun-play. That's a whole other story and more difficult problem to resolve.
First, this gun-license business. While there might be six-million license weapons within Germany (82-million)....after you've been through this 'test of sorts'.....knowing full well that that the license could easily be taken, you don't go and do stupid things. With just one single police report of you intimidating or threatening your neighbor.....the local cops can revoke your license in a matter of minutes, and judges won't go and flip it back unless there is hard evidence that supports your situation. You can go and talk to any German hunter or gun-enthusiast, and they will be extremely serious about their situation and behavior.
Second, Germany is totally serious about nut-cases. It really doesn't take much for some judge to hold you....force you in for a review of your mental state....then confirm you to a mental facility (permanently).
Third, this odd relationship between behavioral control drugs, doctors prescribing them, and threats. If you have some German adult who has delusions, and the German doctor decides some new drug will control this.....then that's the end of a potential gun-licensed individual. You can look across at the majority of US mass murders, and how legal/illegal drugs fit into the profile of the guy, and if he'd been in Germany....that's the end of his access to a gun-license or weapon.
But if you attempted to take the three methods described here and import them into the US? All will be met with various arguments....some in favor of the Constitutional right to a weapon (even if you are mentally insane)...some in favor of the mentally insane to be free and wandering the streets. And some will argue that the legal/illegal drug situation cannot be controlled.
I won't go and suggest that Germany is 'free' of mass murders, but once you use this three-method 'trick', it really decreases the various acts of violence. Today? Well....you have to worry more about knife attacks in urban centers of Germany.....than gun-play. That's a whole other story and more difficult problem to resolve.
A Construction Story
There was a great documentary piece on ZDF (public German TV, Channel Two) last night (around 10:40 PM)....entitled: "Expensive and planned - cost trap state construction projects". I recommend the documentary and you can view it at the site I noted above. Unfortunately, it's all in German.
What they did was lead off with a study that had been done by the Hertie School of Governance. The topic? They demonstrated that of a 119 German state-owned large-scale projects completed since 1960....they've exceeded the anticipated cost by 73 percent.
Why the cost problems? The experts point out that most projects today are only vaguely planned into details, then they get drafted into documents to help the politicians explain this to the public and pass them via local, state or national legislatures.
Reality then seeps into the picture as the construction crews arrive, and find that things are like the original concept laid out. So the escalation starts to pick up and about half-way through a project....you've spent your allocated funding and need to go back and get more money.
In just about every single state (sixteen of them total).....you can find projects like this.....either completed, underway, or anticipated to start in the next year or two.
Projects on the private side.....like the Terminal Three situation at the Frankfurt Airport (underway)? That's different....they have architects working down to the ninth-degree and these rarely go to some massive overrun. Course, you have the Berlin Airport project (seven years delayed)....mostly because of zero project management by the city folks (remember, it's not a private airport like Frankfurt).
The sad thing here is that these projects are soaking up vast amounts of tax revenue, and no one ever gets any blame for the overrun situation. The 29-minute documentary is worth watching.
What they did was lead off with a study that had been done by the Hertie School of Governance. The topic? They demonstrated that of a 119 German state-owned large-scale projects completed since 1960....they've exceeded the anticipated cost by 73 percent.
Why the cost problems? The experts point out that most projects today are only vaguely planned into details, then they get drafted into documents to help the politicians explain this to the public and pass them via local, state or national legislatures.
Reality then seeps into the picture as the construction crews arrive, and find that things are like the original concept laid out. So the escalation starts to pick up and about half-way through a project....you've spent your allocated funding and need to go back and get more money.
In just about every single state (sixteen of them total).....you can find projects like this.....either completed, underway, or anticipated to start in the next year or two.
Projects on the private side.....like the Terminal Three situation at the Frankfurt Airport (underway)? That's different....they have architects working down to the ninth-degree and these rarely go to some massive overrun. Course, you have the Berlin Airport project (seven years delayed)....mostly because of zero project management by the city folks (remember, it's not a private airport like Frankfurt).
The sad thing here is that these projects are soaking up vast amounts of tax revenue, and no one ever gets any blame for the overrun situation. The 29-minute documentary is worth watching.
Train Issue Story
I use the German railway system (the Bahn) a good bit...probably a hundred trips a year (roughly half are 20 minutes or less). So I have a curiosity and interest in the Bahn.
Today, a story popped up via ARD (public TV here in Germany, Channel One)....which worries me to some degree.
It's a shortcomings story, which details all the woes of ICE (the intercity series of trains...which travels at high speeds...going from major city to major city.
On any given day, only 20-percent of ICE trains are fully functional. You could be on a train with four passenger cars, and only two of the four toilets function. Or you could be in the one car of the four-car train which has marginal air-flow/air conditioning. Or this could be the train with a coffee/snack bar....but the coffee machine is broke and will be five days before they have the parts to repair it.
Empty billets? Well....this got mentioned as well. The Bahn is short on 5,000 employees (IT staff, maintenance, support, etc.
All of this adds up and as the journalists point out....in major urban areas, it often means delays.
To make ICE work (including Austria and Switzerland), there's a total of 259 trains in the system. Around a third of the trains in use....were built between 1989 and 1997....which means they are approaching thirty years old. The newer ICE series 4 train? There's a total of 220 on the purchase order but so far....only ten to twenty have made it into the system.
Is it strictly ICE with the problems? Not really. I've ridden on regional trains that had AC problems in July....with stifling heat. I've also ridden on a three-car group (each with a toilet) and all three toilets were broke (what's the odds of that).
The problem here is that once you start to convince Germans of a second-rate service or the lack of dependability....they quietly move onto accepting car or airline travel. If you had to get from Munich to Berlin for a business meeting....twenty years ago, a fair number of folks either drove or took the train. Today, you can fly the route for about 75 Euro, and it takes 75 minutes (one way). The same route with the Bahn? You'd be talking about four hours of travel (one way, with no delays) and a cost factor of 100 to 120 Euro.
Today, a story popped up via ARD (public TV here in Germany, Channel One)....which worries me to some degree.
It's a shortcomings story, which details all the woes of ICE (the intercity series of trains...which travels at high speeds...going from major city to major city.
On any given day, only 20-percent of ICE trains are fully functional. You could be on a train with four passenger cars, and only two of the four toilets function. Or you could be in the one car of the four-car train which has marginal air-flow/air conditioning. Or this could be the train with a coffee/snack bar....but the coffee machine is broke and will be five days before they have the parts to repair it.
Empty billets? Well....this got mentioned as well. The Bahn is short on 5,000 employees (IT staff, maintenance, support, etc.
All of this adds up and as the journalists point out....in major urban areas, it often means delays.
To make ICE work (including Austria and Switzerland), there's a total of 259 trains in the system. Around a third of the trains in use....were built between 1989 and 1997....which means they are approaching thirty years old. The newer ICE series 4 train? There's a total of 220 on the purchase order but so far....only ten to twenty have made it into the system.
Is it strictly ICE with the problems? Not really. I've ridden on regional trains that had AC problems in July....with stifling heat. I've also ridden on a three-car group (each with a toilet) and all three toilets were broke (what's the odds of that).
The problem here is that once you start to convince Germans of a second-rate service or the lack of dependability....they quietly move onto accepting car or airline travel. If you had to get from Munich to Berlin for a business meeting....twenty years ago, a fair number of folks either drove or took the train. Today, you can fly the route for about 75 Euro, and it takes 75 minutes (one way). The same route with the Bahn? You'd be talking about four hours of travel (one way, with no delays) and a cost factor of 100 to 120 Euro.
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Driving Story
For those who ever wondered about the driver's license process in Germany.....as a German, it's a fairly long and intensive driving course. You can figure a thousand Euro (1,200 US dollars), with several months of an occasional class....then the written and practical test.
I noticed today in Focus (the German news magazine)....a piece which chatted about this young 18-year old German lad, who had stepped in and presented his paperwork (completed) at the Rhineland Westphalia local license office, and walked out with a brand new license.
It was approximately an hour later (after picking up the license), that cops pick up the story of the young German lad.
He'd been caught doing 95 kph in a 50 kph city zone.
They read off the riot act to him. They were seizing his license....giving him two points in Flensburg....facing a four-week ban on driving....and a 200-Euro fine (roughly $250 US dollars).
In addition (this is the sad part of the story).....he will only get the license back once he shows that he's been to a local driver trainer, and taken a refresher course (figure at least 150 Euro for that) and at least two to three Saturdays wasted on refresher training.
Serious about driving violations? Yes. The Germans have a high expectation level on how you drive, and the competency required for city and autobahn behavior. I worked with an American contractor who'd done some pretty stupid stuff, and the cops came by his house one evening to announce such-and-such ticket had occurred (a photo situation) with him in an extremely high violation speed. The time-period required? A loss of 90 days. The amusing thing is that the next day....he got into his car and drove to the base/work, without the license in his possession, and sat down to ask me about the implications (he intended to drive each day to work....without the license). I spent two minutes going through the lecture and how big the fine would be if they stopped for any reason. He didn't care to hear that lecture.
This kid? I doubt that he gets the license back for at least four months.
I noticed today in Focus (the German news magazine)....a piece which chatted about this young 18-year old German lad, who had stepped in and presented his paperwork (completed) at the Rhineland Westphalia local license office, and walked out with a brand new license.
It was approximately an hour later (after picking up the license), that cops pick up the story of the young German lad.
He'd been caught doing 95 kph in a 50 kph city zone.
They read off the riot act to him. They were seizing his license....giving him two points in Flensburg....facing a four-week ban on driving....and a 200-Euro fine (roughly $250 US dollars).
In addition (this is the sad part of the story).....he will only get the license back once he shows that he's been to a local driver trainer, and taken a refresher course (figure at least 150 Euro for that) and at least two to three Saturdays wasted on refresher training.
Serious about driving violations? Yes. The Germans have a high expectation level on how you drive, and the competency required for city and autobahn behavior. I worked with an American contractor who'd done some pretty stupid stuff, and the cops came by his house one evening to announce such-and-such ticket had occurred (a photo situation) with him in an extremely high violation speed. The time-period required? A loss of 90 days. The amusing thing is that the next day....he got into his car and drove to the base/work, without the license in his possession, and sat down to ask me about the implications (he intended to drive each day to work....without the license). I spent two minutes going through the lecture and how big the fine would be if they stopped for any reason. He didn't care to hear that lecture.
This kid? I doubt that he gets the license back for at least four months.
Monday, November 19, 2018
Cost Increase
Over the next couple of months, as you walk into German grocery stores....you will begin to notice upscaled prices for potato chips. Reason? The drought.
N-TV (commercial German news) covers this story here early in the AM.
What the experts are saying is that there are forty-percent less potatoes after the fall harvest.....so they have to go beyond the German border to buy their product.
How much of a price upgrade? Unknown.....they avoid that particular discussion. My humble guess is a 15-Euro-cent will be the minimum move up (for the medium sized bag). Long-term? Well....the drought talk hasn't lessen and you just don't know for 2019 how things will go.
N-TV (commercial German news) covers this story here early in the AM.
What the experts are saying is that there are forty-percent less potatoes after the fall harvest.....so they have to go beyond the German border to buy their product.
How much of a price upgrade? Unknown.....they avoid that particular discussion. My humble guess is a 15-Euro-cent will be the minimum move up (for the medium sized bag). Long-term? Well....the drought talk hasn't lessen and you just don't know for 2019 how things will go.
Garbage Driver Story
This got brought up via our local Hessen news today.....job openings with the Frankfurt garbage department. It came with this odd angle.....they have problems in finding cooperative people who are willing to show up each day, and be on time. Garbage service isn't exactly the kind of job that most Germans want.
So....they are looking at hiring immigrants. HR, the Hessen region network tells much of the story.
The story they lay out is about this Iraqi guy....late 30s....with his family here, and a university background (economics). He's having trouble apparently getting recognition for the degree, but finding the unemployment folks willing to help him get into waste services.
The deal? The pick-up guy gets 2,500 Euro ($3k in dollars) a month. If he goes and studies up for the driver exam....it'll bump up to 3,000 Euro a month ($3.6 in dollars).
A step down for the guy? Well...yeah, but this is the problem in resettling into Germany and hoping for some kind of recognition for nursing, doctors, or educational related positions.
So....they are looking at hiring immigrants. HR, the Hessen region network tells much of the story.
The story they lay out is about this Iraqi guy....late 30s....with his family here, and a university background (economics). He's having trouble apparently getting recognition for the degree, but finding the unemployment folks willing to help him get into waste services.
The deal? The pick-up guy gets 2,500 Euro ($3k in dollars) a month. If he goes and studies up for the driver exam....it'll bump up to 3,000 Euro a month ($3.6 in dollars).
A step down for the guy? Well...yeah, but this is the problem in resettling into Germany and hoping for some kind of recognition for nursing, doctors, or educational related positions.
The Privacy 'Joke'
It came up today, via a Focus magazine article (a German news magazine) that a major privacy issue is brewing with the diesel car mess here in Germany.
To get around driving bans, and virtually avoided in telling the general public of Germany....the German federal government intends to start some type of monitoring service (most assume it means the car tags will be viewed and data shared with various cities and states)....with this data having just about everything about the car, the owner, and if it's been retrofitted.
Most everyone in the past six months have agreed that finding the diesel cars and banning each one from entry or fining each one....would be impossible. Well....somewhere in a draft law from ten days ago.....there's a piece noted now that will open up car data files to city municipal authorities.
Naturally, this has gotten some political folks a bit peeved because it's a general violation of privacy to share this type of data.
The cameras there and operational? Marginally. You might find some autobahns with the tag-cameras up and running but in cities around Germany? Few if any have them up and running. My humble guess is that hundreds of millions of Euro will have to be spent for the sixty-odd cities moving toward diesel bans, and getting those connected to a city computer system read every single tag, then hit a diesel 'checker' to see if that car met a retrofit.
Moving next onto some entry-tax? Well....no one says that but you could easily arrange this system to tax each car entering a 50-cent fee for use of city streets for that day. Long-term, one might sense that there were various agendas tied to the diesel business....to lead you around to the cameras and the ability to sense each car entering a city.
Yes, you wake up in ten years to find that the city of Frankfurt might have a daily fee of 2-Euro if you were to enter the city for business or pleasure with your car.....forcing you more and more toward trains or buses.
To get around driving bans, and virtually avoided in telling the general public of Germany....the German federal government intends to start some type of monitoring service (most assume it means the car tags will be viewed and data shared with various cities and states)....with this data having just about everything about the car, the owner, and if it's been retrofitted.
Most everyone in the past six months have agreed that finding the diesel cars and banning each one from entry or fining each one....would be impossible. Well....somewhere in a draft law from ten days ago.....there's a piece noted now that will open up car data files to city municipal authorities.
Naturally, this has gotten some political folks a bit peeved because it's a general violation of privacy to share this type of data.
The cameras there and operational? Marginally. You might find some autobahns with the tag-cameras up and running but in cities around Germany? Few if any have them up and running. My humble guess is that hundreds of millions of Euro will have to be spent for the sixty-odd cities moving toward diesel bans, and getting those connected to a city computer system read every single tag, then hit a diesel 'checker' to see if that car met a retrofit.
Moving next onto some entry-tax? Well....no one says that but you could easily arrange this system to tax each car entering a 50-cent fee for use of city streets for that day. Long-term, one might sense that there were various agendas tied to the diesel business....to lead you around to the cameras and the ability to sense each car entering a city.
Yes, you wake up in ten years to find that the city of Frankfurt might have a daily fee of 2-Euro if you were to enter the city for business or pleasure with your car.....forcing you more and more toward trains or buses.
The Veteran Story
It came out via the German news (Focus news magazine) this weekend that the German authorities have finally come to agree on the term 'veteran' and what it means.
I know.....it's a bit amusing but this is Germany, and you need to accept this long drawn out argument.
This meeting of.....the German Federal Ministry of Defense, the Bundeswehr (German Army) Association and the Reservists Association occurred. They came to a mutual agreement finally.
A veteran will be noted as a active soldier or one who served in the German Army and was honorably dismissed.
The years in service factor? Dumped. Your function? Dumped.
It's a curious footnote here.....roughly ten million Germans today (from the old East German and West German days).....have military service time and would be referred to as a veteran.
A big deal coming to this recognized point? I think the wording has been argued about for years, and particular groups were always labeled in poor manner.
I know.....it's a bit amusing but this is Germany, and you need to accept this long drawn out argument.
This meeting of.....the German Federal Ministry of Defense, the Bundeswehr (German Army) Association and the Reservists Association occurred. They came to a mutual agreement finally.
A veteran will be noted as a active soldier or one who served in the German Army and was honorably dismissed.
The years in service factor? Dumped. Your function? Dumped.
It's a curious footnote here.....roughly ten million Germans today (from the old East German and West German days).....have military service time and would be referred to as a veteran.
A big deal coming to this recognized point? I think the wording has been argued about for years, and particular groups were always labeled in poor manner.
Sunday, November 18, 2018
The False Readings Story
Well....Focus (the German news magazine) picked up the story today and I suspect it'll be national talk by tomorrow night. Around four months ago, in the midst of the chatter in Germany over diesel car pollution....some folks started to ask questions about the monitoring stations in all the major German cities, and if 'poor' monitoring was possible. Focus finally picked up the story.
Basically....a high number of the air measurement stations in Germany simply don't comply with EU mandated rules. You have to have a minimum distance of 25 meters from the nearest intersection.
The defense to the argument? Well....the authorities say that they placed the stations at these points....before EU regulations came out.
So an order came out by national (federal) authorities to have a station by station review. Some meet the EU regulation.....some don't.
In some cases, the authorities came back and said something has to done in some cases (movement suggested). Oddly enough, as the story is told....some Green Party folks aren't happy about the suggested movement to meet EU regulations.
Does the position issue create an unnecessary problem with the diesel crisis? No one is really saying much about that.
You would think some PhD-level study would be done and talk about placement and how a solid strategy is necessary, with stringent rules.
Will this make it into the top ten news items? I doubt it.
Basically....a high number of the air measurement stations in Germany simply don't comply with EU mandated rules. You have to have a minimum distance of 25 meters from the nearest intersection.
The defense to the argument? Well....the authorities say that they placed the stations at these points....before EU regulations came out.
So an order came out by national (federal) authorities to have a station by station review. Some meet the EU regulation.....some don't.
In some cases, the authorities came back and said something has to done in some cases (movement suggested). Oddly enough, as the story is told....some Green Party folks aren't happy about the suggested movement to meet EU regulations.
Does the position issue create an unnecessary problem with the diesel crisis? No one is really saying much about that.
You would think some PhD-level study would be done and talk about placement and how a solid strategy is necessary, with stringent rules.
Will this make it into the top ten news items? I doubt it.
The Lack of 'Glue'
If you went out and asked a group of working-class Germans....is Germany truly unified, or is there a lack of cohesiveness existing in Germany today? Most (my humble guess is near 80-percent) would suggest that Germany is very much a divided nation today.
Tonight, via ARD (public TV in Germany, Channel One)....with the Anne Will public forum TV show (9:45 PM), there's going to be a full hour with political figures and journalists chatting over the issue.
Would this issue have come up in the 1980s, with West Germany? No....I suggest that most people would have found some 'glue' existing which patched society, regions, and the political landscape into one single nation.
It's an interesting discussion topic and I will offer four observations:
1. Something 'clicked' in the early 1990s as East and West Germany unified, and a difference of opinion became more noticeable. Part of it is East German 'thinking', but another part is the economic differences between communities in east and west.
2. Hartz IV (upon arriving around 2003) did resolve some particular welfare issues in Germany, but it also created a tidal wave of a lesser society existing. You can readily now find a ghetto landscapes in the creation and a good ten-to-fifteen percent of society living in a challenging environment.
3. Out of the 82-million residents of Germany....it's figured (at least by 2016 numbers) that ten-million residents are originally not of German origin. Since 2016? I'd take a guess that another half-million have arrived and layered into the system. It's difficult to see this group participating as a German resident would.
4. Finally, politically speaking....the two dominant parties (the CDU and SPD, left of center and right of center) are in a free-fall situation. Twenty to thirty years ago....they had 75 to 85 percent of the national vote. This past election (2017), they marginally were able (together) to get just over 50-percent of the vote. We are fairly near the point where half the voting public won't vote with the two previously noted dominate parties.
Is this a good thing....the lack of 'glue' as a society? It means more debate....more arguments....more experimentation.....more stress on the general public.
I expect this debate to talk about changes....more political experimentation....and an audience sitting in some form of disbelief or lack of trust.
Tonight, via ARD (public TV in Germany, Channel One)....with the Anne Will public forum TV show (9:45 PM), there's going to be a full hour with political figures and journalists chatting over the issue.
Would this issue have come up in the 1980s, with West Germany? No....I suggest that most people would have found some 'glue' existing which patched society, regions, and the political landscape into one single nation.
It's an interesting discussion topic and I will offer four observations:
1. Something 'clicked' in the early 1990s as East and West Germany unified, and a difference of opinion became more noticeable. Part of it is East German 'thinking', but another part is the economic differences between communities in east and west.
2. Hartz IV (upon arriving around 2003) did resolve some particular welfare issues in Germany, but it also created a tidal wave of a lesser society existing. You can readily now find a ghetto landscapes in the creation and a good ten-to-fifteen percent of society living in a challenging environment.
3. Out of the 82-million residents of Germany....it's figured (at least by 2016 numbers) that ten-million residents are originally not of German origin. Since 2016? I'd take a guess that another half-million have arrived and layered into the system. It's difficult to see this group participating as a German resident would.
4. Finally, politically speaking....the two dominant parties (the CDU and SPD, left of center and right of center) are in a free-fall situation. Twenty to thirty years ago....they had 75 to 85 percent of the national vote. This past election (2017), they marginally were able (together) to get just over 50-percent of the vote. We are fairly near the point where half the voting public won't vote with the two previously noted dominate parties.
Is this a good thing....the lack of 'glue' as a society? It means more debate....more arguments....more experimentation.....more stress on the general public.
I expect this debate to talk about changes....more political experimentation....and an audience sitting in some form of disbelief or lack of trust.
Deportation News
Germans currently have some expectations of 'control' being established over 'problem-immigrants' (those with criminal behavior and failed visa-applications). ARD (the public TV network, Channel One) talked over some changes being suggested by the Interior Ministry today.
The big suggestion? Well....if you get on some 'problem-list'....they re talking about a registration process where you have to call and note your location, between midnight and six in the morning....if you aren't at home. If you failed on this obligation? Well....you'd just go to some control-situation (meaning a prison).
Another idea being discussed is no-name airline tickets, which the government would hold. If deportee number one cannot be found....they'd move down on the list and pick up deportee number two....delivering him to the airport, and the ticket goes to him.
This entire deportation 'game' has become a complicated issue. First, you have to ensure the guy has entry papers or a passport from the home-country. A lot of countries would prefer not to get their people back.
Then you come to the issue of health problems, and the various German medical folks who attempt to get in the process and delay the deportation.
Then you come to the appeals process where some legal paperwork has been filed and suggests that the visa-disapproval was unfair.
Then you have individuals who simply 'disappear'....attempting to show up in some other European country and pretend that they just arrived, and hand over a fake passport to restart the process again.
The big suggestion? Well....if you get on some 'problem-list'....they re talking about a registration process where you have to call and note your location, between midnight and six in the morning....if you aren't at home. If you failed on this obligation? Well....you'd just go to some control-situation (meaning a prison).
Another idea being discussed is no-name airline tickets, which the government would hold. If deportee number one cannot be found....they'd move down on the list and pick up deportee number two....delivering him to the airport, and the ticket goes to him.
This entire deportation 'game' has become a complicated issue. First, you have to ensure the guy has entry papers or a passport from the home-country. A lot of countries would prefer not to get their people back.
Then you come to the issue of health problems, and the various German medical folks who attempt to get in the process and delay the deportation.
Then you come to the appeals process where some legal paperwork has been filed and suggests that the visa-disapproval was unfair.
Then you have individuals who simply 'disappear'....attempting to show up in some other European country and pretend that they just arrived, and hand over a fake passport to restart the process again.
The Jens Story
Rarely does a 'loser' end being some highly noted figure....but somehow, this German reality TV show guy....Jens Buchner....figured out the way to accomplish this.
I started watching 'Goodbye Germany' show twelve years ago. Most of the dynamics were marginal. But along the way...maybe six to seven years ago....Buchner came along. He wanted to leave Germany.....move down into the Spanish isles and become a nightclub singer. It's safe to say.....he was a pretty less-than-average singer.
Originally, with number one, the show would touch on Jen's soap opera lifestyle....demonstrate his battle of becoming a singer....and make you quietly pull for the guy.
Then he and wife number one split up....but on good relations.
Jens then got into wife number two, and the reality show continued on.
I have to admit.....he'd become probably one of the five most recognized men in Germany. Never really a big success at whatever he did, but it was his drive to continue on that was remarkable.
In the past ten days....chaos came up with his health.....checking into a hospital. He was dying. A spot on his lungs....very weakened.
In truth, I think most folks were attached to Jens because he was just a regular guy. It's true....he couldn't sing....his life decisions were not the best in the world....and his success is mostly because of the reality TV series. But he was the 'little' guy that you admired for never giving up.
I started watching 'Goodbye Germany' show twelve years ago. Most of the dynamics were marginal. But along the way...maybe six to seven years ago....Buchner came along. He wanted to leave Germany.....move down into the Spanish isles and become a nightclub singer. It's safe to say.....he was a pretty less-than-average singer.
Originally, with number one, the show would touch on Jen's soap opera lifestyle....demonstrate his battle of becoming a singer....and make you quietly pull for the guy.
Then he and wife number one split up....but on good relations.
Jens then got into wife number two, and the reality show continued on.
I have to admit.....he'd become probably one of the five most recognized men in Germany. Never really a big success at whatever he did, but it was his drive to continue on that was remarkable.
In the past ten days....chaos came up with his health.....checking into a hospital. He was dying. A spot on his lungs....very weakened.
In truth, I think most folks were attached to Jens because he was just a regular guy. It's true....he couldn't sing....his life decisions were not the best in the world....and his success is mostly because of the reality TV series. But he was the 'little' guy that you admired for never giving up.
Saturday, November 17, 2018
Coup Story
It's been barely mentioned in the past two weeks, but Focus magazine went and put a fairly detailed account of the 'Day-X' episode here in Germany.
Best described?
The German Federal Police say they've got enough evidence to proceed onto a court case. At work here....a small secretive group of German elite soldiers, who had put together this plan to take down a number of German political figures and create a 'coup' (note, the cops avoid using the word).
The central figure with the story, and in the middle? A German ex-air force officer and reserve major, who laid out the basic story.
All of this would have been put into effect once an overwhelming event due to refugees.....had occurred on German soil. In essence....a "collapse of public order".
A serious effort to create a wave like a coup? This is the part that I have problems with. It's possible that you had three or four delusional folks, and a dozen others who just kinda fell into a middle of some bar-room talk (not realizing the whole episode).
The problem here is that political folks will take this serious and start a massive investigation over the German Army and dump a hundred-odd members if they think they were part of this coup-planner episode.
The fact that names of politicians are written down and their home addresses established? Well....the delusional folks obviously went though the first and second steps of putting a plan together. Another problem is that thousands of Germans will view the story and start getting funny ideas about the threat of the coup and get all hyped up over nothing.
Best described?
The German Federal Police say they've got enough evidence to proceed onto a court case. At work here....a small secretive group of German elite soldiers, who had put together this plan to take down a number of German political figures and create a 'coup' (note, the cops avoid using the word).
The central figure with the story, and in the middle? A German ex-air force officer and reserve major, who laid out the basic story.
All of this would have been put into effect once an overwhelming event due to refugees.....had occurred on German soil. In essence....a "collapse of public order".
A serious effort to create a wave like a coup? This is the part that I have problems with. It's possible that you had three or four delusional folks, and a dozen others who just kinda fell into a middle of some bar-room talk (not realizing the whole episode).
The problem here is that political folks will take this serious and start a massive investigation over the German Army and dump a hundred-odd members if they think they were part of this coup-planner episode.
The fact that names of politicians are written down and their home addresses established? Well....the delusional folks obviously went though the first and second steps of putting a plan together. Another problem is that thousands of Germans will view the story and start getting funny ideas about the threat of the coup and get all hyped up over nothing.
Merkel at Chemnitz
Typically, Chancellor Merkel does press conferences or public Q and A program....only with journalists. Yesterday, in Chemnitz....she went forward with a two-hour Q and A session, with the general public. This occurred in the middle of a work day, and I would question the folks who ended up within the structure. NTV (German commercial news) covered the event and spoke about the questions.
For those not familiar with recent events in Chemnitz (a city in the eastern region of Germany).....there was a German who was attacked by a non-German, and it's become a rough period for the political folks in the region to answer questions.
The deal led off with the question....do you know why people have taken offense to you? This led to a professor-like statement that she can understand this.
This led onto a question if the government itself needs a new communication strategy. This question was worded in some way to suggest that people (some people)....aren't that bright and "the ability of people to receive news" is in question.
I stopped for a while and thought about that statement. It's directed at working-class people (not intellectuals). But actually, after you start thinking about it....you might as well include intellectuals in the group of people having problems in receiving news as well. Dumbing down all news? Well....why not?
This suggestion led the guy asking the dumb-down piece....to suggest that the Chancellor needs to have short films produced. You know....the type where difficult-to-understand matters are done in bite-size form. You know....like those films produced in the 1930s. Oh.....well....maybe that's not a good example.
The Chancellor then wanted folks to know that her guy (Bundestag spokesman Steffen Seibert) already does daily 'tweets', YouTube-type videos, and she does a regular podcast (I can't say it's weekly but you see one every once in a while).
So the questions proceed on. At some point, a German lady asked about the Chancellor needing to point out the good achievements of the government.....that enough kind and glorious words aren't being sprinkled in the public. The Chancellor more or less grinned and suggested that she didn't want to go overboard bragging on all the good stuff.
Toward the end of this two-hour episode.....some guy finally asked....when are you retiring? The Chancellor is kinda direct and just says she's in for the whole four years.
One can make three observations about this public session:
1. If you feel negative about the Merkel vision (to include immigration and migration), then the session did little to persuade you to be more open. If you were super-positive about Merkel (to include immigration and migration), then the session did little to improve your super-positive feeling over the government.
2. Yes, there is a intellectual versus non-intellectual 'battle' brewing in Germany. There are truly people walking around that feel if you were 'just as smart' as them....you'd understand the whole situation. In some ways....it's opened up this big divide among the public and creating a disconnect. The sad factor in this piece of the puzzle is that the intellectuals are in the minority (maybe one out of seven at best).
3. When you look across the whole landscape in Germany....most will say that there really needs to be some change coming to the political make-up of the government....that having a fresh new Chancellor would help.
More of these Q and A episodes? If you were lucky.....you might see Merkel do one of these a year. Course that suggestion to do more of those short film 'explanations' might be a catchy thing that the public TV folks could do.
For those not familiar with recent events in Chemnitz (a city in the eastern region of Germany).....there was a German who was attacked by a non-German, and it's become a rough period for the political folks in the region to answer questions.
The deal led off with the question....do you know why people have taken offense to you? This led to a professor-like statement that she can understand this.
This led onto a question if the government itself needs a new communication strategy. This question was worded in some way to suggest that people (some people)....aren't that bright and "the ability of people to receive news" is in question.
I stopped for a while and thought about that statement. It's directed at working-class people (not intellectuals). But actually, after you start thinking about it....you might as well include intellectuals in the group of people having problems in receiving news as well. Dumbing down all news? Well....why not?
This suggestion led the guy asking the dumb-down piece....to suggest that the Chancellor needs to have short films produced. You know....the type where difficult-to-understand matters are done in bite-size form. You know....like those films produced in the 1930s. Oh.....well....maybe that's not a good example.
The Chancellor then wanted folks to know that her guy (Bundestag spokesman Steffen Seibert) already does daily 'tweets', YouTube-type videos, and she does a regular podcast (I can't say it's weekly but you see one every once in a while).
So the questions proceed on. At some point, a German lady asked about the Chancellor needing to point out the good achievements of the government.....that enough kind and glorious words aren't being sprinkled in the public. The Chancellor more or less grinned and suggested that she didn't want to go overboard bragging on all the good stuff.
Toward the end of this two-hour episode.....some guy finally asked....when are you retiring? The Chancellor is kinda direct and just says she's in for the whole four years.
One can make three observations about this public session:
1. If you feel negative about the Merkel vision (to include immigration and migration), then the session did little to persuade you to be more open. If you were super-positive about Merkel (to include immigration and migration), then the session did little to improve your super-positive feeling over the government.
2. Yes, there is a intellectual versus non-intellectual 'battle' brewing in Germany. There are truly people walking around that feel if you were 'just as smart' as them....you'd understand the whole situation. In some ways....it's opened up this big divide among the public and creating a disconnect. The sad factor in this piece of the puzzle is that the intellectuals are in the minority (maybe one out of seven at best).
3. When you look across the whole landscape in Germany....most will say that there really needs to be some change coming to the political make-up of the government....that having a fresh new Chancellor would help.
More of these Q and A episodes? If you were lucky.....you might see Merkel do one of these a year. Course that suggestion to do more of those short film 'explanations' might be a catchy thing that the public TV folks could do.
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