Political Chat

Last night, public TV (ARD, Channel One) in Germany, ran a full hour of public forum, with the topic of 'can the current coalition government survive until the fall of 2021, the next election'.

This coalition (Merkel's CDU, with the Bavarian CSU, and the SPD Party) is marginally working out, and one could make the statement that this is probably the weakest coalition since WW II. 

At some point in this discussion.....the chief of the youth SPD Party organization (Kevin Kuhnert) made the blunt statement that these agreements used to create coalitions....ought to be limited to one-year in length.  His belief is that so many things are developing and it's crazy that you can form a bond or relationship in government....that would last four years. 

If this suggestion were to take place?  You'd likely flip a coalition every twelve months and continually be looking for a new partner, or face up to a new election. 

But here's the thing, one has to admit that the priorities and dynamics of German politics today....versus 1965's priorities and dynamics....are a great deal different.  Part of this problem is the continual involvement of the news media, the delivery systems of the internet, and public frustrations.  But you also have a massive funding 'bundle' that is continually challenged and the introduction of alternate political parties makes both the CDU and SPD significantly weaker than they were in 1965.

The effect of the AfD Party and the Linke Party?  Together, they can take 25-percent in a national election.  The CDU will admit in blunt language....they can't partner with either group.  The SPD will admit in plain language that they can partner with the Linke folks, but there's a limit to how far that coalition can succeed.  Adding to this....the minute you have the winner, and suggest two additional small parties to run a coalition.....it hampers the whole list of promises that you made to your voter-base. 

As for the general question....can the coalition survive until the fall of 2021?  I think the SPD is desperate enough to continue on this trail because they've weakened themselves to such an extent....that if a fresh election were called, they'd be lucky to top 16-percent and that's pretty dismal for them and their long history of voting success.