In recent weeks, there's been a fair amount of journalistic 'chats' where people are speculating strongly that the CDU will do a 'dumping' in 2021 with AKK (their current party chief and anticipated replacement for Merkel as Chancellor in the fall 2021 national election). So I'll add my speculation.
First, for those who haven't figured it out.....AKK (Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer) was brought up from the Saarland as the favorite to Chancellor Merkel around two years ago.....being regarded as an intellectual and a 'carbon copy shadow-to-Merkel'.
At the time, it's safe to say that around 35 to 40 percent of the CDU Party (actual members) weren't that happy with her, and wanted a different type of personality after Merkel left. Merkel pulled out all of the votes possible to ensure her 'favorite' ended up as party-chief.
Second, as time as passed...it's now safe to say that about 50-percent of the CDU insiders and membership.....aren't that happy with AKK's performance. Some of this is simply minor performance issues....some are directional issues for the party.
Third, even the gold-star status of Chancellor Merkel has slipped in the period since the election, and it's safe to say that more than half the nation thinks a new Chancellor is necessary (forget the fact that the same group said that prior to the 2017 election, so it's really not new information).
Is Merz an intellectual type like Merkel? No. He's a business man-lawyer, who reached a level of discontent about a decade ago with Merkel's direction for the party, and stepped away from politics for a number of years.
Merz on migration? He generally advocates a guarded door, where you apply to enter....show your abilities or education, and Germany actively recruits people with technology skills for the future. Whether all members of the party agree with him on immigration and asylum....is a big unknown.
A mini-Trump? No.....but he's worried about jobs and how German businesses are going to operate in the future. He's keen on innovation and generally thinks it'll come to solve a lot of the ills facing society today.
Can the SPD or Greens counter-offer a candidate to challenge Merz? Well....marginally. The SPD believed candidate is the current Finance Minister (Olaf Scholz). The numbers for the SPD just don't look that good (maybe 15-to-16 percent). The Greens? Habeck is the likely candidate. Taking some SPD votes, he might be able to get near 25-to-28 percent. If this were the scenario, Merz would likely win.
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