Since the party 'boss' has said no.....she (AKK) won't run to replace Chancellor Merkel next year.....you basically have this script falling into place.
First, next week....a series of meetings will occur between AKK performing her party 'boss' act, and the three guys vying for her job and hoping to be the next Chancellor (after Merkel).
She will iron out the schedule and give them an idea of the path ahead.
At the end of February, AKK will have a public speech and announce the schedule.
These three guys (Merz, Spahn and Laschet) may not be all.....there is an open door period, and you might find a couple of additional folks sending their application.
What'll happen over March and April....these three guys will go out across the country and give some speeches, and there might be a debate forum on a couple of occasions.
Criticism of Merkel? It'l be lightly handled and criticism over the immigration woes will be dragged out in public view. Merz, I suspect, will suggest that the current program needs more stringent rules.
Is Merz his own worst enemy? More or less.....he's not the Merkel intellectual-type of leader. So I'll take a guess that roughly one-third of the power players of the CDU (probably forty of them in the top two-hundred).....are going to be harsh critics of Merz.
As for the question of sustaining some win-capability against the Green Party and their choice of Habeck for the Green Party Chancellor? Merz is the only one that could easily hold Habeck back. If they go with Spahn or Laschet.....the Green Party probably can mount a pretty strong election and win.
So by late summer, the CDU will hold a weekend meeting, and give the three guys their final chance to make a speech. A vote with internal party members only will occur, and that winner will be the new CDU Party 'boss', and carry the campaign forward for 2021.
The odds of an early election? I've said this already this past week....there are increasing odds here for the early election. I could see it held in late November of 2020. But a lot of this will circle around the idea of Merkel leaving early, and the SPD not accepting Merz as Chancellor for an interim period.
Does Merkel want to leave early? No indicators either way. Health-wise....she gives two different appearances....one suggesting faintness issues with a heated environment, and the other suggesting normal health.
There was some point at the end of the Kohl era, where you knew he should have retired two to four years earlier, and he had stayed too long. I see the same circumstances in this Merkel era.
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