Short Summary of the Political Chaos

I'm an outsider on German politics, but I recognize a number of features that you tend to see both in the UK, and the US.  So, the topic for today's essay is the general effect of the AfD Party (the Alternative for Germany).  For those who aren't into the descriptions.....this is a rather new party, having taken on a anti-migrant, anti-immigrant stance....since 2015. 

In the 2017 national election, they managed to take 12.7-percent.  In the fall 2019 Thuringina state election, they took 23.4-percent. 

The other parties (from the far-left, to the moderate-right).....hate the AfD, and have vowed never to partner with them. 

But here's the simple problem, as we've seen demonstrated in Thuringina.  Once you inject a 'logical rule' that says you can't partner with the AfD, and that the CDU Party can't partner with the Linke Party.....you start to get into mathematical situations where there is never a 50-percent-plus 1 situation for coalition partnership.  Thuringina basically proved that case.

In the national election of 2021 (Oct)....will the same mathematical problem arise?

I would start to suggest that if the AfD folks could rise to around 20-percent, and if the SPD folks could lower themselves to 10-percent....then the same chaos for Thuringina would occur in Berlin.  I even suspect that the AfD leadership now realize that they are the 'king-makers'.....whether the news media grasps that or not.

Could AfD make the 20-percent level?  This is really the big question.  You have three major state elections in March of 2021, and I suspect that they could demonstrate 16-percent in each state election.....more or less.  In fact, in Saxony, it's probably closer to 30-percent likely to come out of that election. 

Why the attraction to AfD?  It's a woeful tale....which the CDU, SPD, and Chancellor Merkel have anchored themselves to.....putting band-aides mostly on the immigration business, and continuing to hope that the general public will buy off on the news media stories.  Then each week, some news source puts out the story that 100 metropolitan German cities have asked to bring Med refugees, and by-pass the general system.  Once a German reads that statement by the regional mayors.....it just winds the clock up once again, and provides the anxiety to vote for the AfD. 

So it's a broad mess in this chaos, and little room for an escape....for any of the political parties.