Political Speculation

With speculation swirling now over the likely successor to Chancellor Merkel, and the odds of 'he' coming from the CDU Party (her right-of-center group).....there was a good article up on ARD (public TV, Channel One) today.

To settle this into a simple story....the party 'boss' (AKK) who has said 'enough' for her job, and won't run for the Chancellor job....noted yesterday that she intends to talk to the three primary people running for the party 'boss' job and the Chancellor position in the fall 2021 national election. 

This chat will occur in the next week, and by the end of February.....she will announce the schedule of things to come.  The hint here is that all of this mystery stuff will end by the summer period, and the likely candidate will be finalized and eased into the new 'boss' of the party situation.

One odd part of this story in the past week?  Well.....a number of CDU women were hyped up and negative that it's only three men who are vying for the position.  The fact that Chancellor Merkel has held the Chancellor position and party 'boss' position for twenty years?  The fact that AKK was brought in and served as the party 'boss' for a number of months?  Their argument here seems awful weak.

A poll has been done and reflects the public sentiment.....that Friedrich Merz is the top person but its not exactly overwhelming.  Forty-percent sided with the opinion that Merz is a better candidate (note, this wasn't CDU-voters, or CDU-party members, just the general public). 

If you do look for the poll data for CDU party members.....around 69-percent favor Merz over the other candidates.  Jens Spahn is least favored among the party members.

A rush to judgement?  No.  This is designed in some ways as a political drama and will help to improve the numbers of the CDU by the end.  I would predict that if you take a poll in August....the CDU will have advanced three additional points over where they are today. 

So with all of this.....is there still a chance that an early election will be the final result?  The current schedule for the election is October 2021.  Various party members and journalists are speculating that the election schedule may be thrown out entirely, and you might see an election occur before the March 2021 period when three state elections occur.  Reason?  Mostly to prevent AfD from getting more grip on national politics, via results in the three state elections. 

Settle back for a entertaining political period this summer.