There is a major meeting of the CDU Party (the right-of-center folks, Merkel's party) on 25 April. The key players up for the nomination of the party 'boss' and future Chancellor candidate will meet, and a selection will be made by party attendees.
At that point, AKK will step down from the party 'boss' job, and the new person will be in campaign mode for the rest of 2020, and throughout most of 2021.
The odds on favorite right now? Friedrich Merz.
Agreeable to the party members? Well.....no. I would take a humble guess than around 60-percent aren't that pleased over him.
Second possibility? Norbert Rottgen. Within the group of close supporters for Merkel.....Rottgen isn't exactly a pleasing idea either.
Third possibility? Either NRW's Premier President Armin Laschet or the Health Minister....Jens Spahn. Both would be supported by the pro-Merkel crowd.
There are three ways at looking at the internal politics to this:
1. A large segment of the population who typically vote CDU....want a focus change in this election.....going away from Merkel-theatrics and Merkel-strategy, which influences the party selection.
2. This will be one of the more difficult elections in German history, with the Green Party now surging, and possibly having 30-percent of the national vote. The party has to be mindful of that 'fight' required.
3. Finally, there's economic woes being discussed....a recession on the way, and the requirement for a pro-Germany economic situation. Merz is probably the better choice than the other three.
So I would anticipate....while maybe half the attendees at this party meeting would prefer Spahn or Laschet to replace Merkel....it'll really be a fight between Rottgen and Merz, with Merz likely winning the job.
Circle 25 April on your calendar and expect a chaotic weekend.
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