Between last night and this morning, I've probably review two hours of video and read a dozen articles over the political mess brewing....so I'll make these ten observations:
1. I expect the newly elected Premier of Thuringian to resign within the next seven days.
2. I expect a new election to be carved out of this mess....likely to be held the first or second week in April.
3. I expect the 1.1-million voters of the October 2019 election to be exceeded by a minimum of 25,000 extra or new voters.
4. I expect a serious split to occur with CDU supporters around all of Germany....with half supporting the chatter of AKK (the current party chief of the right-of-center party), and the other half in serious disagreement with her and Chancellor Merkel. Once the dissent crew realizes that they are being 'pushed' around....they will realize their value and worth to the CDU Party is zero. Where would this group go? Naturally.....the AfD Party.
5. Whatever hype (even fake hype) existed for the Thuringian election in October of last year....doubles with the news media of Germany now....particularly the two public TV networks. I see the two networks as solidifying the AfD message....which they will stand there and be embarrassed by the public perception.
6. The AfD folks? They will use the picture of the Linke Party official throwing the flowers at the feet of the FDP official yesterday, in dozens of video advertisements.
7. Hyping up the spring 2021 state elections (three of them)? It's possible that the SPD would really do lousy in this new Thuringian election and do damage to their spring chances in the three state elections. Helping the AfD in the three elections? If they boosted their numbers by 3 to 5 more points....yes, they'd be helped as well.
8. AKK getting full-scale damage by this and hurting her odds as the CDU Chancellor candidate in 2021? Yep, I'd agree with that assessment.
9. The odds of still no outcome after this potential 2nd election? Yes, it's very likely that you still don't have a coalition government after the election.
10. Full-scale pain suffered by the FDP Party for months to come? Maybe.
No comments:
Post a Comment