Covid-19 Chatter

 Presently, today.....the national infection rate for Germany is 155 (anything over 100 is serious, at least the government says that).  In my local district (Wiesbaden), the rate is 170.5.  

So I sat and watched a piece off N-TV (commercial German news) this morning.  The hype?  Several scientists (not government folks) have analyzed the latest data and say that the infection rate over the next month is going to drop (like a rock).  

Chief reason?  Well....the vaccination 'pace' is picking up.

Adding to this....one of the scientists also brought up the ban on public events also lessening the spread.

Warmer weather?  Not mentioned....but if you look at 2020, the rate by June had seriously dropped, and one might suspect heat played a role.

So what do they suggest as a rate by late May?  50.

If it were fifty.....a lot of the ban-rules would collapse, and there'd be open bars/pubs and restaurants.  

Just for the record....the German vaccination situation looks this way (data from yesterday).....26-percent of society has gotten the first shot.....7.5-percent have wrapped up the second shot.  

Extreme Weather

 This year (2021) has been a unique year on weather so far.  Since 1 January, I would take a guess that we've had maybe two single fronts to come through this part of the Rhine Valley, with thunder, lightning and heavy rainfall over the past 120-odd days.

Yesterday?  For about forty-five minutes....a serious amount of lightning and rain (3rd day for the year).

In a normal year?  If you go back ten to twenty years.....it was normal to have thirty of these fronts in a average year.  Last year, I would suggest that fewer than six serious fronts came through the valley.  

Last night, the HR weather guy (our regional public TV network)....did a detail analysis over rainfall for 2021 so far....we were in the zone of only 40-percent of normal rainfall for 2021 so far.  If you went around 100 km north of here....they had around 140-percent of the normal rainfall.  

Just luck or bad luck?  Maybe.

Chat Forum Show

 Last night, after ZDF (Channel Two, public TV in Germany) ran the late news....the chat forum show 'Maybrit Illner' came on.  

It was a curious piece.  Invited to discussion?  

Wolfgang Kubicki (FDP) , who is a Vice-President in the Bundestag and deputy party boss.....Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim, who is a chemist and science reporter.....Mayor Peter Tschentscher (SPD) of Hamburg (doctor background as well)....Mayor Boris Palmer (B´90 / The Greens) of Tübingen....and Jan Josef Liefers (actor, and the guy who led the anti-ban-rule commentary from a week ago).

The chief topic?  Well...it started with Liefers explaining his controversial commentary from the past week....which was a cynical bit....aimed at the government effort to maximize on ban-rules for Covid-19.  The blunt side going against the Liefer's crowd?  They weren't empathetic to the suffering and dying.  

I would say (as an outsider) it's an odd phenomenon  that has occurred over the past twenty years in Germany....where being sympatric and empathetic is a big deal and continually harped upon.    If you aren't 'reading' the script and showing the sympatric/empathetic business....you get criticized.

So this open forum went onto what I'd say is a discussion about a 'discussion'...whether you (as a citizen, singer, journalist, or politician) can openly comment on the Covid-19 situation, the ban-rules, etc.

Palmer (the mayor)?  He presents the case that you really can't say what you think anymore....that each thought or criticism has to be measured and carefully delivered.  If your thoughts aren't empathetic.....you get yanked upon or 'cancelled'.  Just suggesting that non-Germans are less concerned about getting vaccinated?  Well...that could make you into a racist.  (I should hint here, ethnic background isn't collected by the vaccination centers....so no one within the government can say factually that non-Germans are or aren't enthusiastic about the shots).  

We are roughly 440 days into Covid-19, and I would suggest that German frustrations have grown greatly since December.    You can walk around and get some pretty sharp criticisms over the virus and the ban-rules.

The fact that the federal election is only five months away?  Well.....this is a bothersome part of the story....because both the CDU and SPD parties have 'shot' themselves in the foot and public support is spiraling downward for their 'brand'.  

Crime Story

 Curious crime took place last night.  Some local company was broken into, and what they stole....was 15,000 of these 'quick-Covid-test' kits and two big boxes of the FFP-2 masks.  

If you figure general value on the street....it's probably up around 50k Euro minimum. The question?  Well...where the hell do you 'dump' or find a front for the test kits? Most folks are not going to offer face value, and this 'kid' probably will get probably less than 3,000 Euro for the whole thing.  

Non-Statistics 'Mess'?

 So a SPD politician (medical background) came out and had a TV chat about folks in ICU situations in German hospitals and suggesting their average death age (within the ICU world) was mid-to-late 40s.  The emphasis was to talk about the urgency to grasp/resolve the problem.

Well....Focus picked up the story today and some other politician (from the FDP Party) asked the stupid question.....where is the statistical data for Germans in ICU situations?

Well...the German government had to admit....they had no such data.  Whoever is taking up a ICU bed at such-and-such hospital is probably counted by the business-department of that hospital, but no one is passing that data to states, or the federal government.

So trying to make the case that younger people, or older people are dying in ICU situations?  You can't make it without facts.

There's no doubt that German ICU beds are being taken up at a fantastic pace (compared against all of 2020 situations).....but beyond the usage, you can't say much.

Even if you started to collect and measure the data....shouldn't you ask the ICU guy....are you a smoker...what's your Vitamin D situation....are you overweight or a heavy-drinker?

As for the suggestion of ICU folks dying at a hefty pace?  Well....it might be interesting to ask just how bad a shape was the ICU guy in....prior to getting Covid-19, or being admitted.  

Berlin and Immunizations

 I was watching RBB news this morning (that's the public TV network out of Berlin), and they brought up this odd topic.

It involves Covid-19, the vaccination business, and the lack of 'consumers'.

So, RBB had acquired a paper dated from Monday (the 26th) and where the city admitted that ONLY three-quarters of the over-80-crowd (city residents of Berlin) had been vaccinated.

Yes....roughly 120 days into the vaccination period, and they still hadn't gotten all of them done.

For the 70 to 79 year old crowd?  29 percent.

Offers or invitations to get the vaccination?  1.9-million of these have gone out....with roughly 40-percent NOT responding.  

Reaching herd-immunity in Berlin?  Well, they had the goal of 70-percent being this point of immunization.  If they marginally reach 60-percent?  No one says much, but I would imagine that they'd claim herd-immunity anyway. 

But this brings up the question....is the 'brand' of vaccination or immunization not working now?

My suspicion is that people aren't that thrilled about the mega-shot-centers, and they'd rather just wait, and get it via their local doctor/clinic.  It wouldn't surprise me if 20-percent of society felt this way.  

The odds of this getting to a politically charged-up issue?  This goal....herd-immunity.....has gotten a ton of mentions over the past six months.  I think if you asked any CDU or SPD politician.....they'd readily admit that it's a 'must-accomplish' thing.  

What is the Querdenken or Lateral Thinker Crowd?

 If you watch German public TV news nightly.....this topic of the Querdenken crowd comes up a good bit.  So this is my explanation of the group.

About six months into the Covid-19 era in Germany.....as ban-rules started to appear and be enforced....this loose-net group started up (mostly out of Stuttgart in the first 90 days).  

At the time, it was heavily stressed by ARD/ZDF (the two public networks) that this was a right-wing anti-government group. 

The suggestion that anti-vaccination folks are in the mix?  Well...there really wasn't much of a group existing prior to this....over anti-vaccination.  This suggestion might be true, but there's not a lot of investigative reporting to lead to any conclusion.

What you can say in a factual way is that around a dozen major protests have occurred since October of last year.  Police have tried to enforce ban-rules upon the crowd and dismiss the protests.  In the case of Kassel (five weeks ago), around 20,000 folks showed up and it stayed mostly peaceful (but the police went to the effort of not enforcing a lot of the ban-rules on the crowd).  

I bring this all up because across Germany on Saturday (May-Day)....there's a belief that a couple hundred thousand will be on some type of protest demonstration and maybe half of them will be Querdenken folks who are hyped up against the ban-rules.

So my interpretation of the Lateral Thinkers? I would offer four observations:

1.  A fair number of the protest crowd have identified ban-rules as being something that the old GDR (East German/DDR) government would have done.  I won't suggest they are correct or incorrect on this....just that the older crowd remembers how many rules that the GDR government wrote, and living by them made life miserable.  

2.  If you had a fun-factor index (1 to 10).....at this point in the German Covid-era....most people under the age of thirty would give the situation today (late April) a fun-factor of '4'.  Bars closed, restaurants closed except for pick-up, disco and dance-hall operations non-existent since spring 2020, and social life sitting at a miserable point.  Vacation planning?  In a normal year, most folks would have a vacation or two planned for 2021, but I don't see much of that going on presently.

3.  Constant changes to the rules?  This is a long discussed situation and it's become almost a joke.  The newest situation is the federal ban-rule control.....with states now out of the control business....except for enforcing the ban-rules.  

4.  Trust in the vaccination business?  Various issues have popped up and I'd go to the point of suggesting that two out of ten Germans are highly concerned about getting the vaccination.  The 'herd-immunity' discussion?  At one point, they suggested that 70-percent was the goal, and lately (March/April 2021)....it's now getting to the 60-percent point.  But if you ask anyone if the ban-rules go away with 'herd-immunity' achieved....they mostly disbelieve that the ban-rules will lessen. 

Are the Lateral Thinkers mostly right-wing?  Well....there's a fair amount of interviews accomplished where left-wing folks are among them and believing the close comparison of the old DDR rule-establishment. I might go and suggest that a quarter of the Querdenken folks are more left-wing than right-wing.  At one point in the Kassel video business....a couple of migrant/immigrant folks were in the picture and you had to laugh over any suggestion of them being right-wing types.

Here's the chief thing to consider....it's just an oddball group made of people frustrated by the ban-rules business and a zero-social life.  Since they can't 'fire' anyone....these protests are the only way to communicate with the public, Chancellor Merkel, and the Bundestag crowd.  

Growing?  It's an election year, with a lot of people who are hyped-up negative.  If there was a 4th option (beyond Laschet, Scholz, or Baerbock)....I suspect that a quarter of the population would be gauging the 4th Chancellor-candidate with more interest.  But from the AfD, Linke Party, or FDP.....there just isn't anyone with that type of 'brand'.  

Politically, who gets hurt more by the Querdenken crowd?  Well....anyone associated with the CDU-CSU or SPD parties.  They are the ones who made the ban-rules.  

Finally, any truth to the idea that the Constitutional Protection 'agency' is monitoring the Querdenken crowd?  It's absolute fact that they are monitoring them and consider them a threat to the stability of Germany.  But lets be honest here.....there are probably over one-hundred different groups which are monitored around the clock by the Constitutional Protection 'agency' and some folks probably make the watch-list two or three times over....by membership in different groups. 

So prepare for the Saturday evening newscast and the hyped-up nature of protests for 1 May.  

Polling Story

 Focus brought up this poll done in the German state of NRW over Armin Laschet's leadership as Premier-President of the state.

Laschet has moved up to be the party chief of the CDU Party, and now considered their Chancellor-candidate.

So, what do locals think of Laschet in general?  The poll from the Forsa folks says it's pretty negative.  Seventy-one percent said they were dissatisfied with his achievements/work.

If you looked closer at the poll...especially among 18 to 29 year old folks....it's dismal....with eight-two percent of folks being hyped negative over his effort.

The curious thing about this poll....it added that a majority of people from NRW think that whoever fills the Premier-President job in the future....needs to be a younger person.

As for what drives some of this negativity?  Covid....without any doubt.  Patience and understanding have been mostly used up, and folks are ready for some type of change. 

Bad news for the CDU?  I would probably suggest that.  But they should have done polling six months ago and seen this coming.  

News and German Teens

 I was watching N-TV news today, and they brought up this interesting study done on younger Germans and their 'interest' in the news.

So prepare yourself.....roughly half of all younger Germans say that news is 'uninteresting'.

However, the study pointed out this curious thing....influencers (like off YouTube or Instagram, or Twitter)....are drawing interest to younger Germans who say news is interesting.

So the main quote in this whole story?  There's this German quote of "children lack the tools to fight fake news."

I sat there thinking....probably half of adult society (folks over 21)....probably lack the tools to recognize biased or fake news.  

All of this triggering news media groups to hire up 'influencers' to explain the news to teenagers?  I'd laugh over the suggestion but it wouldn't shock me.  

But is any of this new?  I might go and suggest that news hasn't really been a top ten topic of German teens....ever.  Maybe they got hyped over new bands, or new movies....but frankly....taking some banking story like 'Wirecard' and expecting anyone of the age 15 group to have interest.....is asking a lot.  

Vaccinations

 The odds of Covid-19 immunizations occurring in German super-markets soon?  Well....it got brought today in Bavaria....by the Premier-President there (Soder).

He kinda hinted that he wants a whole front opened up....schools, pharmacies and grocery operations allowed to give shots.  He also wants the priority system wrapped up, and everyone allowed vaccinations.  Then he got onto the topic of using every drop of vaccine on hand....'nothing' to be left laying around.  

Odds of this happening?  I'd mostly shake my head and say that the federal and state program is likely to continue as is....with local doctors and clinics probably the only exception to the program.  

Late Night Talk Show Chatter

 Last night...on a late-night talk-show via ZDF (Channel Two)....there was a interesting but 'forbidden' topic to come up.

So the moderator got one of the SPD political folks (who is a doctor) to chat over migrants or non-Germans....getting the Covid-19 vaccinations.

The 'sell'?  Well...it's suggested that more enthusiasm needs to occur among the migrants of Germany.

Then they turned to the Green Party mayor of Tübingen, Boris Palmer, asking him to respond, and he said basically....any comment that he'd make...would be a target for people to accuse him of racism......so he didn't say much of anything.

You kinda have to laugh about the topic and how it has to be handled.

So if you did ask ZDF or ARD....or any news source......just how many non-Germans have been vaccinated, they'd tell you no such data exists.  No one tracks the vaccination business in such a way.

If you look around social media.....a fair number of Turks are volunteering the information that they haven't been vaccinated and aren't interested.

Why did the moderator want to drag this topic up?  Unknown.  Maybe he's just poking around and hoping Palmer is stupid enough to chat over this, and get slugged for racism comments.

The odds that in 2022....two-thirds of all non-Germans in the country have not been vaccinated?  The potential is there and you have to wonder how this will be handled by the government.  But just to drag up the topic.....you are probably on the edge of being a racist.  

Repeating a School Year

 There is a discussion going on in Berlin (for the city, not the federal folks)....over the idea that kids will be 'allowed' in some creative way....to repeat all of the past year of school.  All of this....because of Covid and the way that schools ran (with kids mostly staying home).

RBB (public TV for the city) brought up this topic.

What has occurred here is a regulation change....which says you as a parent....if evaluating your kid's performance....feel the kid is not where they should be....would request a 'repeat'.

Issues?  Oh....a number of them.  Starting off....once you request a 'repeat'....there's almost no chance of remaining at the same school for the repeat year.

There was also a tight time schedule involved.....mid-April. 

Overcrowding likely?  Yeah, the journalists kinda hinted that problem would exist as well.

Numbers on applying for this?  No one says much.

The chief problem, I would imagine....is that kids already got a dose of 'lagging' in the spring of 2020.....as schools shutdown for weeks.  So it's hard to say that you got 100-percent in 2020, as you graduated out of school....onto the next grade. You ended up with a 2nd dose of lagging over the past six months.  

National trend?  No.  Berlin appears to some degree the only ones making this option a possibility.  Cost factor?  Well....if this were a small limited number of kids (say 2k of them).....it wouldn't be a big deal.  If this were one kid out of every four?  Yeah, it'd be a big deal in terms of cost.  

The Thing That Never Ends

 In the last couple of weeks, there's been this little question passed around on social media and mostly avoided by the news media and politicians.  The question....once you achieve 'herd-immunity' or accomplished enough immunizations.....at what point do the ban-rules lessen and start to disappear?

Some people have gone to suggest that when the regional infection rate (nationally at roughly 167....locally in Wiesbaden at 197 and in Mainz at 165) drops below 100....things start to diminish....ban-rules should be dropped, and things go to a regular situation.

If you go and use 2020 numbers....the infection rate (as spring temperatures arrived) started to seriously decline by mid-May and stayed low till early September....then trended up week after week.  Some people are anticipating the same trend to start next week, and be obvious by late May.

But is there any serious political chatter  about 'herd-immunity' day....the magical day where the Chancellor says it's done?   No.  

So onto the next little topic that people have drifted around to....if we arrive at herd-immunity day.....shouldn't Christmas market planning start up, and things be normal for December?  Well...no one in the government is discussing that idea.

Intervention, a non-topic?  Is it just going to linger?  I would suggest (just as an outsider) that the ban-rules will be written into stone, and around October....the book gets open and various ban-rules start back up.  It'll shock some Germans and beg for serious discussions about the future.  But lets be honest....Chancellor Merkel and the CDU-CSU-SPD government will be gone, and the Greens (as the likely winner) will get the task of telling people that Covid never really goes away. It won't be a pleasant task, and they might stall for six months before admitting this.

An unpleasant thought?  Obviously....but no one really knows much of anything.....other than ban-rules are marvelous and curfews accomplish miracles.  

Voting Trends?

 RTL and N-TV did a poll on German politics.....mostly looking back at 2017 and how people voted, and the changes occurring today.

So in the case of SPD voters from 2017....only around 42-percent of the 2017 voters would return and vote for the SPD in 2021.  From the departing group....28-percent said they'd vote for the Green Party today, and roughly 10-percent said they'd vote for the CDU today.

A serious loss of voter confidence?  In just four years?  Yeah.

From the 2017 CDU voters?  Same issue.  Almost half of the CDU crowd said they would not return and vote for the CDU today.  Sixteen percent of this 2017 group have flipped to the Green Party today.  Eight percent of the 2017 group say they'd vote FDP today.  Then you come to this oddball group (18-percent)....who are mostly undecided from their 2017 situation and not really confirmed to anyone at this point.

All of this suggesting a major shift in German politics for 2021's federal election?  More or less.

2017's national election centered to a great degree on migration and immigration issues....bringing the AfD Party to an extremely high level, and shocking the SPD and CDU elite.

2021?  It's centered on three key topics.....Covid-19, economic stability, and climate change.  Migration issues?  They've probably shifted around to middle of the top twenty issues discussed for the election.  

Second Vaccine Dose Problem?

 I won't go into a lot of hype or discussion over this Focus story.....but they drilled down into an American oddity....some Americans are showing up for vaccination number one, then refusing to get vaccination shot number two.   

The number being thrown around?  Five million Americans, or roughly 8-percent of those who've been vaccinated....who skipped shot two.

So, here's the thing....Germans are noticing the same trend here.....folks aren't showing up for the second vaccination.  

Reason?  Well....there is personal belief that the second shot isn't necessary.  It's not scientific or anything.....just that the belief is....one shot is enough.  I personally would suggest that side-effects (fever, aches, etc) occurred with shot one, and that most people would prefer to skip the effect again.

For the science folks, this is a major deal.  In their mind.....you are not fully immunized.  You might only be 50-percent protected.....or perhaps 80-percent protected.  

The next question obviously ought to be.....in six months, if you realize that 8-million Germans skipped immunization number two, and never got the full impact....what do you say or do?  Make them repeat the whole thing again....with shot one and two?  Or do you just pretend it's not a problem and proceed forward?

Apartment and Tax Story

 Focus brought up this topic today.....'exportation'.

Locals in the city of Berlin are working on an initiative called “Expropriate Deutsche Wohnen und Co.”

The idea....collect enough signatures to force a city referendum.  Within this....the idea would be public seizure of private company 'assets' (apartment buildings).

Somewhere in paragraph 14 of the Basic Law (the Constitution)....there is an allowance where private property can be seized....but in turn....you have to compensate the losing party.

Over and over, it's been mentioned to the referendum supporters....the compensation part of this scheme basically comes back to the city or state....meaning if you seized forty-odd buildings valued at one billion Euro....someone from the city or state would have to cough up the billion Euro, and taxpayers in the end....would be assigned the task of covering the money.

The figure on the Berlin apartments played with?  They suggest for the full 243,000 apartments....the amount of money comes up to a minimum of 29 billion Euro, and could even go as high as 39 billion (depending on how you view the true value).

Focus then brings up this curious fact.....back in 2002 timeframe....the city sold these public apartment buildings, for the price of roughly 2.2-billion Euro.  Under-valued?  Maybe, but there's simply not enough data to suggest that's factual.

So you stand back and look at this landscape.  Politically, this is all charged up and everyone is convinced the rate of advancement for rent increases is a serious problem, and already way more than what they should be paying (at least they believe that).

Several political parties have agendas that lean toward the expropriation idea.  Where the billions would come from?  Well....obviously these parties aren't advertising this part of the deal, and there's a serious point where the public wakes up and realizes the tax required.....can only come from themselves.

So a bigger problem brewing?  Property taxes somewhere down the line....for the city of Berlin.....are going to explode.  The public apartment buildings might avoid this issue, but the regular people around Berlin won't be able to avoid it, and they will be frustrated to a major degree.  

Mask Story

 Along about fall of 2020, the government mandated two types of masks.....dumping cloth or fabric masks entirely.  

This week, the bus and train service in my region....went a step further....surgical type masks are now forbidden for wear on trains and buses.  The general type demanded?  FFP-2, and N-95/KN-95.

A big deal?  Well...there are various situations where the surgical masks are approved (like grocery shopping or bakery visits).  So this all starts to make 'where' you are going....as a complicated thing to plan out.  

My general advice....unless you really have no choice....it's best to avoid the bus or train business, and just travel by car.   

Tesla Update

 It's an odd little side story and you wonder about how it occurred.

So for most of you who are aware of the Tesla production going up in eastern Germany....you know that it's on a tight schedule, and they want the building done this year (2021).

Well....this event came up.....an inspection, and the folks walked in to find that the construction crew had laid out a sewage pipe.....without a approved plan.  Days ago?  No....this goes back several months ago.

The drainage pipes?  Around 3 to 4 meters below the surface.  

Reaction by the German inspectors?  Freeze on everything at this point.  Nothing moves....nothing is accomplished until they go and review the drainage pipes situation and I would humbly speculate that they will ask what else might have been done without an approved plan.

Odds of a fine?  In most normal cases.....there would be something.  

Why skip the approved plan process?  That part is not spelled out and it leads you to wonder....did the construction company just screw up, or was this intentional?  

Forty years ago....you could count on competent engineers and planning staff to do the job correctly.  Today?  If you just gaze around at mega projects in Germany, and constant screw-ups.....it just makes you wonder about the capability of these construction companies.  

The odds that the inspectors may start putting people there around the clock and really make this a long and delayed process?  Well....Musk has said in blunt talk....if they aren't done with the building on time, or if the authorities start to really delay the process.....he's finished with Germany and will produce the car elsewhere.  

So in 17 days.....either construction starts back up, or this gets into an interesting stage of delay.

E-Scooter Story

 I follow the regional crime blotter....because there's always new trends in criminal behavior.

So this morning....via the Wiesbadenaktuell, a bizarre crime was laid out.

Along the main 'drag' going from Wiesbaden to Biebrich (along the river)....some younger German guy was approached by three youths on E-scooters.  The three stopped by the guy....approached him on foot, then demanded his cellphone.

'No' was the response, then the guy was knocked down, kicked, and the cellphone then taken.....with the three riding off into the sunset on their little E-scooters.  

Probably the start of some bandit 'team' with E-scooters as their get-away vehicle.

Infection Act Court Action

 Reaction to the new Infection Act?  Well....it came pretty quick today.  N-TV reported by mid-afternoon that 65 different court challenges were launched at the Constitutional Court level.  The odds of another hundred by the end of the week?  I think it's possible.  

Some revolve around the Act itself....being illegal.  Some revolve the curfew business.  

The odds of something being directed?  My guess is that the challenges will be directed back to the Bundestag and basically tell them that they'd have to give themselves certain powers.....which currently.....they don't have. 

A hot topic?  I think the curfew business and it's effect is the biggest deal.  

Political Chatter

 It was a curious political weekend.

First, from the CDU-CSU side.....Armin Laschet and Markus Soder took swipes at each other.....mostly over ever appeasing the Greens in the election (Soder) or heavily dumping up the Greens (Laschet).

The angle?  Soder knows with the current CDU agenda (Laschet as the Chancellor candidate)....the Greens will win the election.  Laschet believes if he can condemn the Green 'brand' enough.....he'll cut their lead.

Second, Annalena Baerbock was a guest on the Anne Will Show (ARD, 9:45 PM, Sunday night).  

Blazing away for twenty minutes....Will (as moderator) did her best to intimidate Baerbock.  Even though other guests were there.....that was twenty straight minutes of 'torment' dumped on Baerbock.  She seems to have done well, and not screwed up.

Will doing a favor for Baerbock?  Maybe.  I think if you had doubts over Baerbock holding up for the campaign....that 20 minutes of intense questioning put away doubts.

Greece and Germany Story

 There was a weird story to come out of Berlin today....over refugees and how Germany would like to handle the future of migrants.

So for those who didn't know this......the bulk of refugees today are sitting around in Greece (having sailed or floated from Turkey over).  ALL of these individuals are sitting in temp-camps, and they have one single destination on their mind.  NO, it's not Greece.  They want to be allowed to continue on....to Germany.

The CDU-CSU-SPD coalition under Merkel?  Absolute fear from the past five years over Germans seeing some massive wave arrive and trigger another refugee crisis.

So today (via a Focus article)....the Germans have cooked up another plan.

To prevent tens of thousands of new refugees.....the Germans would like to 'pay' the Greeks to hold them (permanently is the word avoided).  

How much?  Well.....NO one is saying an amount, or how this would work.

My humble guess?  I think the Germans would prefer to have a discreet meeting and get the feeling if the Greeks would go to this level.  In this level of thinking, there would be permanent camps built....substance of food and money handed out....in some legal fashion, and the Greeks would just supervise the situation....keeping them from leaving for Germany.

If you brought up something like this?  I think the typical Greek would say 'ούτε καν' (hell no), and then ask how much would the stupid Germans pay?

The amount?  It wouldn't shock me if the Germans were willing to pay out 500 million Euro just for a handling fee, and another 500 million Euro for the day-to-day support and food money for the refugees.  

Where the Greeks might place this?  Well....off the coast is this island called Makronisos....a small isle.....1 km by 10 km long.  It used to be a prison isle for bad-boy politicians (1940s to 1970s).  

All of this because the top level of the German government won't say in a public setting.....there is a limit on migrants and refugees?  Yes, more or less.  So they pay 'an agent' of the EU to do the dirty work and just hold these folks in another country. 

The Greeks holding great cards?  Oh....I'd suggest they could get the Germans to slip them half-a-billion a year for being such great 'hosts'.  They might even make this a ten-year deal on paper.  

Survey Story

 BILD went out and did a political survey for today's news.....if the election (national) were today....how would you vote?

Results?  The Green Party went to 28-percent....highest level in their history.

The CDU? 27-percent.

The Linke Party sinks a point.....down to 7 percent.

The AfD Party marginally holds onto it's 10-percent situation.

The SPD Party crapping out at 13 percent (their voters went to the Greens).

Baerbock from the Greens gaining? Yes.....mostly off a perceived weakness for Scholz of the SPD and Laschet of the CDU.  

I sat and watched some chat forum show from late Friday night, and they'd brought Laschet on as a guest.  Impressing folks?  I wouldn't really suggest that.  He just doesn't have the character or personality for these type of shows.  

Test Story

 This morning, up in Hamburg....there's some hype and discussion over the 'quickie' Covid-19 tests.  Focus tells the basic story.

Based on pressure from the CDU Party element in city politics....the city agreed to run a second PCR test after the quickie test for the period of 22 March to 11 April.

Results?  Sixty-eight percent of the quickie tests were confirmed as 'correct' on positive (having Covid-19).  The rest (31.5 percent)?  False positive end-result.  

Statistically?  Well....it'd leave a lot to be frustrated over....thinking you have Covid symptoms and getting the tests to say 'positive'....when the symptoms lead more to a cold and it's just not Covid-19.  

Stopping the quickie tests?  No....no one is suggesting that.

A lot of expectations are being tied to the quickie tests....like stepping into stores or getting your hair done.  As long as the quickie results say negative.....you get these extra privileges. 

Mandating that everyone get the PCR test after a quickie-test positive?  It almost has to be a mandated thing now.   

Frankfurt Air Activity in the Covid Era

 So I pulled up the airport departures page for today (Sunday).

From 5:00 AM to 6:00 AM.....one single flight (to Mallorca).

From 6:00 AM to 7:00 AM....three flights.

From 7:00 AM to 8:00 AM.....eight flights.

Compared to 2019?  It's probably 10 to 15 percent of what would have occurred.

Terminal two?  Still closed.  

The odds of passengers showing up for the 5:40 flight to Mallorca?  Well....the airport is within the curfew numbers and it would have been nearly impossible to leave your home, drive over, check-in and walk the security path....within time allowed.  So if people did show up....they were all in violation of the curfew because they left home early.  

The What Is Happening Question

 Tom Bohn did an interview for WELT and it's published today....Fanny Fee Werther wrote the piece and it's worth a moment to think about the discussion here.....'Nobody understands what's happening in Germany anymore.'

If you gathered up a hundred working-class Germans and tried to get some common understanding out of the group.....it's be difficult to say a common 'thread' or landscape exists at this point.

Covid has disrupted the  economics, the job potential, the stability of the regular working guy, the social life, the relaxation schedule, vacation plans, life's goals, and made general planning into a chaotic situation.

A couple of weeks ago, I read a piece in the German news over this gal who wanted to make her husband's 60th birthday into a party-type situation.  It was all with good intentions.  She invited several guests and avoided a public scene by doing this on her patio.  Well....the cops got called.  This was in an area with ban-rules forbidding more than one single guest.  It turned into a pretty crappy situation....for the husband, and for the guests who showed up.

You can probably go and have a conversation with various Germans from the age of 18 to 30, and find that fifty percent have actively violated various ban-rules and just been lucky in not getting caught.  The enthusiasm to obey the rules?  It's rapidly draining out.

Social media hype?  I suspect a number of Germans have figured out that it's best not to advertise your unwilling nature or provide pictures of some party you attended (evidence for the police).  

Things ever returning to normal?  That's probably a four-hour discussion topic with a group of Germans.

Most people have this idea that the Christmas market business will occur this year, and will be the 'sign' of things returning to normal. If the virus infection rate stays as a top-three priority?  Well....you might end up with a very controlled Christmas market, with guards asking for your vaccination slip or some virus test slip.  Allowing alcohol to be sold?  That's probably a no-go.

How's 2022 looking?  A whole new government (probably with a Green Party Chancellor) will be standing there, and the public will be looking for changes to say that the virus era is ended.  I just don't see that happening.

So it's a pretty chaotic situation laying there, and no real confidence of things returning to a norm.  Curfew is now an absolute part of your life and you continually think about how you need to fit your life into the 'bundle'.  Then you start to hear about new changes to the ban-rules, and how long those changes will last before other next round of changes occur.  

More Ban-Rule Issues

 We are now on day two of the new federal Covid ban-rule system, and it's continuing to draw serious criticism.

This morning, the chief problem talked about is the early morning flight business.  If you had some vacation or business trip required, and the ideal 'leave-time' at the airport is a 6:05 AM flight, and you live in a curfew zone....you got problems.

By the way that the curfew law is  written....you can't exit the house and drive away until 5 AM.  Well...even if you live within 10 miles of the Frankfurt Airport.....by the time you park the car and tote the bags to the counter....it's likely to be almost 6 AM and basically too late for that 6:05 AM flight.  Some even suggest that a 7 AM flight is nearly impossible (because of security and getting from the bag point to the gate).

Just taking a risk and driving out at 4 AM?  Well....it's probably a 90-percent chance that you'd make it without the cops intercepting you.  But if you were stopped.....there's this ticket likely to be written and potentially a couple hundred Euro in fines.

The odds of early AM flights just being cancelled?  It's almost ridiculous to suggest this but I'll bet virtually no passengers for early AM flights while the Covid ban-rule deal is in place and curfews are federalized. 

New Ban Rule Issues?

 Imposing the new federal ban-rules started today, and a fair number of Germans are pretty peeved.

Focus covered one element.....the limit of customers into grocery stores.

So a typical regular grocery is around 1,200 square meters.  By the new Covid ban-rules, the limit is 50 customers in the store at one time....so there's some guy/gal at the door and supervising your entry.

Figuring a dozen are couples....it'll take up more waiting time.  

Focus was out early today (Sat) and interviewing folks standing there and waiting to get into the grocery.

The best time to now shop, without lines?  Avoid shopping totally at 5 PM is the advice given....otherwise, you might be standing in line for an hour.

How long will this last?  Once we get to spring months and thunderstorms.....with people standing there in the middle of a lightning storm.....I suspect acceptance will dry up real quick.

I don't think the politicians thought much about this management business, and how well it'd go.

As for this kind of resembling old DDR (East Germany)?  Well....their limits were because the goods simply weren't there....this is a case where the goods are there but you may be spending sixty to ninety minutes to get entry to buy them.

Past Review of CDU Voting Trends

 This is a data 'dump' where the CDU Party is laid out alone (without the CSU votes of Bavaria): (Wiki data)

Sept 2017 national election: CDU: 30-percent (14-million votes)

Sept 2013 national election: CDU: 37.2-percent (16.23-million votes)

Sept 2009 national election: CDU: 32-percent (13.85-million votes)

Sept 2005 national election: CDU: 32.6-percent (15.39-million votes)

Sept 2002 national election: CDU: 32.1-percent (15.33-million votes)

Sept 1998 national election: CDU: 32.2-percent (15.85-million votes), last time Kohl ran and lost.

Oct 1994 national election: CDU: 37.2-percent (17.47-million votes)

Dec 1990 national election: CDU: 38.3-percent (17.07-million votes).  First united Germany vote.

Jan 1987 West Germany election: CDU: 37.5-percent (14.78-million votes)

Mar 1983 West Germany election: CDU: 41-percent (15.94-milllion votes)

Oct 1980 West Germany election: CDU: 35.6-percent (16.80-million votes)

Oct 1976 West Germany election: CDU: 38.3-percent (14.42-million votes)

Nov 1972 West Germany election: CDU: 35.7-percent (13.30-million votes)

Sep 1969 West Germany election: CDU: 37.1-percent (12.13-million votes)

Sep 1965 West Germany election: CDU: 38.9-percent (12.63-million votes)

Sep 1961 West Germany election: CDU: 36.3-percent (11.62-million votes)

Sep 1957 West Germany election: CDU: 39.7-percent (11.97-million votes)

Sep 1953 West Germany election: CDU: 34.8-percent (9.57-million votes)

Aug 1949 West Germany election: CDU: 25.2-percent (5.97-million votes)

Analysis: You can take three general trends into consideration.  First, the CDU alone (without the CSU results)....tend to take 30-percent or more in each election since the 1950s.  Second, the peak of national votes for the CDU occurred before Merkel arrived.  Third, the CDU generally needs 14-million votes or more....to really ensure any type of 'win'.

Looking at September 2021?  It's going to be tough for the CDU to get to the 12-million or more vote level.  If the turnout is around 76-percent (like 2017), I'd have my doubts that the CDU can generate more than 20-percent of the national voting trend.  

The Lieg Story

 This got brought up in the news and is worth pondering about.

Over in the Pfalz area of Germany.....there's this village of 375 people....called Lieg.  It's about 25 km SW of Koblenz, and in the middle of nowhere.  There's one road in and one road out (L108).  

There's one single Gasthaus in the village.....where people might quietly mingle and have a beer.....if the Covid-ban-rules allowed it to be open.  

Lieg has this funny reputation.....since day one of the Covid-19 era....there's been ONE single person who had Covid.  That's it.  

That one single person?  Well....that was back in March of 2020.  Since then, nothing. 

How?  It's been discussed but there's no rhyme or reason. You can speculate but that's about all you can do.

The fact that it's in the middle of nowhere?  Well....you'd go and suggest that probably helped more than anything else.  It's nowhere near a tourist zone or heavily traveled road.

Nearest grocery store?  Nothing in the village....so you'd have to travel to a village at least five km's away....if you were going to buy groceries.  No industry.  No hotels.  No gas station.  

I would imagine if you asked the locals about sharing a beer with an 'outsider'.....he'd probably ask why you'd do such a thing.

The Paragraph 74 Problem with the Infection Act

 After all the magic was done with the new German Infection Act.....you really have to dig through the paperwork to find paragraph 74.  

In this one paragraph, which has to do with things you might have intentionally or accidentally done....you are led to a short four-line piece which says you could get five years in a German prison for a violation of the Infection Act.  Yes, five years. 

This got brought up in a Focus article this morning by Jan Fleischhauer.

Jan gave the example of a friend of his....who stopped at a local Munich gas-station at 10:10 PM (after the curfew started) to buy a pack of smokes, and the police arrived.  End-result?  500 Euro fine.....for a pack of smokes episode, during Covid-curfew.

I think the extent of the fines, and the prison time....has started to scare some folks, and the identification of this relating back to DDR times now pops up occasionally.

Any of this ending in 2021?  I would seriously doubt that any of the Covid threat diminishes in 2021 or even in 2022.  Just go and ask Germans if they think the Christmas market business will be 'normal' or a no-go situation for December of 2021.  

Test Story

 German urine test to determine the impact of Covid-19 on you?  Well....there's this test being developed and openly discussed now.

The wording is....it'd tell you 'A' or 'B'....meaning that you'd know if you were going to have a really mild case of Covid-19, or an extreme case.

Coupled with this idea....it's being openly discussed that only around 13 to 18 percent of people show symptoms at all....meaning the bulk of society (if this is correct)....show almost no symptoms.

Cost factor involved with the urine test?  Well....it's not cheap.  Insurance companies are a bit peeved and there's some push-back.  So the Health Ministry is under some pressure to either find ways of lessening the cost or to mandate it only in certain cases.  

I would suggest this....if you did some mass urine test and assembled the data to show 80-percent of society would only have a mild case of Covid-19.....you might have a bigger problem on your hands in keeping society in 'herd' mentality and obeying the rules.  

How the Federal Covid Ban Rules Work Now (Under the Federal Guidelines)

 With the state pushed out of Covid ban-rules, one has to be careful over what you do....if the rate of infection is 100 or more.  So, some examples:

1.  Funerals: a max of thirty guests, period.  

2.  Private meetings in a household is limited to one guest.  It's written to mean not only within the house, or in the backyard.....but also at a city-park or wooded trail, or a bench by the river.

3.  Curfew (with the rate of 100 or more) is imposed at 10 PM.  Some exceptions are written.  Examples: if you are jogging, it's allowed from 10 PM to midnight.  If you were jogging and returning at 20 minutes past midnight, the cops could stop you and issue a summons.  

If you have a dog, he can be walked after 10 PM. 

If you were a news reporter, you are exempted, period.

If you were tending to a sick relative, you are exempted.

4.  Ordering of food to be delivered is still possible (up until 10 PM).  After 10 PM, in curfew, neither ordering or pick-up is possible.

5.  Use of any tourist operation (including hotels, camp-grounds, etc) is not possible when the incidence rate is 100 or more.

So, the odds now of court challenges?  Already yesterday....various lawyers were discussing the options, and there's probably over a thousand challenges set to occur next week (the first point where federal control is now exercised).  The odds that many or all of the new federal ban-rules will be 'dumped'?  I would suggest that the judges will ask where the authority was gained to determine the ban-rules. 

But getting some reaction over the ban-rules in the next thirty days?  I doubt that things would occur that quickly.  

Curfew Chatter

 With the new federal Covid-ban-rules now in place, where the federal government controls all the rules...NOT the states themselves, this new problem has arisen over curfew expectations.

Focus gave the better of details on this, and I'll try to describe it in simple detail.

If you are a highly urbanized area with a airport, and your virus incidence rate is over 100....then curfew is thrown into your local surroundings.  You must be home by 10 PM.  

Well....lets say that a month ago, you made reservations to leave out of Frankfurt's Airport at 10:12 PM, to fly to Bangkok, Thailand....when the rate in Frankfurt was at the 88-point.  But today (the flight day), the city announced it's new rate of infection is 109....that means that the flight is now NOT possible because it occurs 12 minutes past 10 PM.

The same issue would occur if you were arriving from Bangkok....to Frankfurt....at 10: 12 PM....under curfew rules, this landing and your departure from the airport would not be possible.

Same deal with trains?  Yes.  If you were arriving from Stuttgart to Koln, and their rate of infection at Koln is over 100.....with your arrival at 10:30 PM, you'd be in violation of the rules.

A lot of people....a lot of railway and airport management folks.....are quietly grumbling over this situation.  It makes travel of any type.....almost impossible to plan or execute.  

The positive side of this?  Almost all major airports in Germany....are in zones where the rate of infection will be 100 or more....so they are all shutdown by 10 PM.

The tide going against the federal oversight of curfews?  I would suggest there's probably more negativity now, than at any point in the past six months.  Added to the mess....the sets later and later each day.  With each day, we advance to that point where sun doesn't even set until 9:50 PM (Hamburg, 1st week of July, for example).  I can suggest getting public attention and obedience with curfew action will be nearly impossible at that stage.

Looking Ahead at German State Elections

 For the remainder of 2021....there are three state elections this year:

6 June: Saxony-Anhalt

26 Sep: Berlin 

26 Sep: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

For 2022?

Spring period: Saarland, NRW, and Schlesweg-Holstein

Fall period: Niedersachsen

As to the idea of damage done to the CDU for September's national election (this year)?  Well....it won't have much affect on the Berlin election but it could be a curious twist for Mecklenburg if the CDU ranks poorly (they are ranked almost even with the SPD currently in the election polling).

As for 2022's spring election?  A poor showing for the CDU in September of this year....would trigger a lot of worry for these three state elections in the spring.  

My humble belief is that a really poor showing in the national election (Sep 2021)....would trigger a lot of talk for dismissing the party chief....Laschet.  Recovering with a new party chief, and doing well in the spring of 2022?  I kind of doubt it.  You might be looking at a 12 to 18 month period where the CDU walks two to three individuals through....as party chiefs, and find serious public views of the organization.  

Mask Story

 There's chatter this morning in Germany over a Amazon decision (at the warehouse-level)....where they are going to forbid the use of the FFP-2 masks.  Based on scientific data (at least what Amazon claims)....the FFP-2 masks require more breaks (usually every 75 minutes).  

This report?  Well....via ARD's Panorama show and ARD news piece.

They spend around 10 minutes detailing this 'directive' by Amazon upon the employees.

So, factual data?   The data says that if you are doing extreme physical work....the max 'protection is 75 minutes to 2 hours, then you need a break, and a new mask.  So they are pushing for the hospital type masks, instead of the FFP-2 type.  

Why Amazon as the 'lead'?  That's not clear from the news documentary piece.

Oddly enough, Amazon provides masks 'free-of-charge' so in their mind....it's not a big deal.  

Chat Forum Show

 Last night, off Channel Two (ZDF, German public TV)....ran the Maybrit Illner chat forum show (live).  10:15 PM....late enough that it's a limited number of people watching.

The topic?  'No Resentment, Will the CDU Lose the Chancellorship'.

Mostly journalists, with Merz (of the CDU Party) and Ozdemir (Green Party).

So for about an hour, this chat goes on....with things leaning on the idea that the CDU is guaranteed to lose the election (the Greens now likely to win).  

Merz's wisdom?  He kinda lays the blame for this 'path' to Chancellor Merkel....she should have been preparing the party and the selected candidate for the situation long ago.  There's no 'love' between Merkel and Merz.....I should state that very clearly.  

At the end of this 'talk'....if I had been a bigwig out of the CDU Party....I probably would have poured several shots of strong stuff and started preparing myself for 150-odd days of crappy campaigning and the intent to be 'honored-losers' of the election.

On blame?  It's hard to say.....I've never seen anything like this theatrical production going on, and the intent or willing nature....to stick with a 'loser'.  The Greens?  They are probably at the highest 'glee-point' of the past forty years.  

If you wanted to watch the show....it's up for a month (all in German).  

How Are the CDU and CSU Divided?

 For Americans, this is an odd topic and never made clear.  So I'll draw the dividing line.

The CSU (the Bavarian 'sister-party' of the CDU) was originally the Bavarian People's Party, and broke off in 1918...from the national party.  The chief reason?  Some of this goes to a Catholic standing on politics (a big deal in Bavaria), and a more general conservatives view of politics from the state of Bavaria.  

From 1945 on, the party has been active.

In general rules....the CDU can campaign in 15 German states.  They can't run anything in Bavaria.  In turn, the CSU is limited to Bavaria and can't campaign in any of the other 15 states.  A law?  NO....it's just an understanding.

A couple of years ago, disenchantment with Chancellor Merkel led to a discussion about the idea of the CSU proceeding out of Bavaria.  That in turn....brought up the topic that the CDU might 'roll' into Bavaria and possible take voters there.  After that stand-down....the topic was dropped.

Currently?  It's obvious that the two parties are fairly divided and marginally holding to some 'truce'.

Could the CSU Party unhook themselves from the national folks (CDU)?  Yes.  An example could be the Green Party winning, and a coalition government deal is worked out with the CDU folks, but requiring the CSU in the situation.  The CSU could say 'no', and walk away.  

Does Laschet have anything to offer Soder or the Bavarians?  No.  That's the amusing part of the story.  If Laschet can't win the election for the CDU.....he has almost nothing to offer.  

My 'Disaster' Script for the September German Election

 At this point, it's highly likely that the Green Party (with Baerbock as Chancellor candidate) will win, and it'll be in the 29 percent range (my numbers in the guesswork).

To form a coalition, they need to total up to 50-plus percent.

Option A: Some left-left-left situation, with the Green, SPD and Linke Party adding up.  Presently, I give this a 20-percent chance of occurring.  The Linke Party is showing dismal 7-percent numbers, and the SPD is presently down near 14 percent.  That won't get the number needed up to 50-percent.

Option B: The Greens turn to the CDU/CSU group (16 percent/8 percent).  Somewhere in this discussion....the CDU wakes up to realize that the CSU won't agree to anything, and part of this dilemma goes to the behavior of Laschet to Soder.   

Option C: The Greens then turn to this crazy combo....the Greens, the CSU and the FDP.  The CDU starts to go ballistic and suggest an end to their 'friendship'.  The CSU responds....'fine'.  

At this point, a weird political relationship develops for the next four years.  Recovery for the CDU?  A lot of people might go suggesting the party is dissolving away.....suggesting the same for the SPD. 

Fake Covid Vaccine?

 N-TV had a one-minute report this morning....covering this investigation going on about Biontech vaccine.

What they say is that two episodes are unfolding....in Poland and Mexico....where the 'vaccine' was delivered and some questions arose.

In the Mexico case, they say around 80 local folks were vaccinated with a fake collection.

In the Poland case, the authorities confiscated the batch of bottles, and said the content was some type of anti-wrinkle 'cream'.  

That's the chief problem now....people are getting to the point of desperation and any story of a batch being 'secretly' available.....doesn't make you ask questions or wonder about the authenticity of the vaccine.  

The odds that you might have ten-thousand Germans walking around, who got a secret dose of a anti-Covid vaccine (paying a thousand Euro), and they end up with a serious bout of Covid and demand answers on why their shot didn't work?  It's an amusing suggestion but you just don't know.  

Curfew Chatter

 There's an economist from here in Hessen (my local German state) who has spent some time assembling facts and data....over curfews.

HR, our regional TV  network, sat down and discussed his report.

What Georg Götz says?  There's no evidence to prove that curfews in support of Covid-19 have any effect.

In fact, he goes to the next level and suggests that no facts/data support the idea of closing pubs, bars or restaurants....of having any significant effect upon Covid-19 rates.

Hurting the message of politicians?  No doubt.  But at this point, I don't think they care. 

At some point by September (election period)....I suspect that a fair number of voters will be suggesting maybe it's time for a political curfew, and direct the public TV crowd to lessen political coverage or political chatter over Covid-19.  

Housing Story

 I sat last night and watched the public TV news program 'PlusMinus' (Channel One). The key segment of the news piece show was a seven-minute report on this odd trend.

So....a number of well known companies around Germany have latched onto what they consider a major problem....affordable housing in urbanized areas.

Their solution?  They are funding/building apartment buildings on their own...for their employees.

PlusMinus folks surveyed a number of DAX (the big companies) and found five companies which were actively in the real estate market.  I'll admit....it's not a significant number, but it shows a trend. 

Polling Leadership

 There was a little short political story off N-TV in Germany this AM, which I felt was curious, and had never heard before.

Back around the fall of 2014, there had been constant rumors of Chancellor Merkel having polls done.  So this fairly known Green Party politician....Malte Spitz...went to court and asked that they force the government to admit the amount of polling.

Well...this gets interesting.  Files are put into public view.  

Chancellor Merkel,  is drawn to surveys and polls in a massive way.  Up until that point, she was signing off on an average of three polls/surveys each single week.

The evidence showed (to the fall of 2014)....around 600 surveys which led to decision-making (by Merkel) by public opinion.  If the public said 'X', then that was the path ahead for the Merkel-team.

Every action....every speech....every position....every interview....maneuvered the Chancellor's position as dictated by polling.  

In the years since 2014?  One might assume that the Chancellor's office continued the polling method.  So this makes it rather odd....that they'd all latch onto Laschet as the Chancellor-candidate....when polling shows he can't win.

Is there some other intellectual scheme at work here....where the intent or goal is to line up a loser for the election....to bring in a Green Party Chancellor?  It's crazy-talk as far as I can view the discussion, but it begs questions if they were so overdosed on polling results and always trying to stay one step ahead of the opposition....then suddenly turn against the polling 'craze' in this case.

Bus Numbers in the Covid Era

 This morning, the local news (out of Wiesbaden) had a comment over bus transit 'profits' for 2020, and the trend on riders.  Basically.....it's pretty dismal for 2020 (the Covid year).

As they noted....there were several points in 2020....where the ridership went down to 20-percent of what was considered 'normal'.

At the end of 2020?  The entire year added up to around two-thirds of what occurred in 2019. 

Covering the losses?  Well....the state and city itself....are going to post enough to cover the bills.  

Hopes for the spring of 2022?  No one seems to be hyped-up, and the general expectation is that they might turn 80-percent of 2019's numbers.  So the state and city might be pushed back into the corner again, and cover the operating budget once again.  

Long term?  Covid's negativity is going to be around for a long while.

Political Analysis From This Morning

 I sat and watched N-24 news this AM.....the German commercial news network.

The general hype over the political spectrum?  Mostly related to the CDU Party, Laschet, and the downward path ahead.

They focused on three key issues:

1.  They dumped a fair amount of blame on Merkel and Laschet for the 'deplorable' situation of the CDU Party.  Whatever policies or agenda items drawn up over the past five years....are attached to Merkel entirely, and the leadership of the party is convinced that only a pro-Merkel minded person (like Laschet) is the only path ahead.  In simple terms....the journalists are dumping on the whole top level of party leaders.  

2.  Laschet is now given an impossible task of making Soderans (the Bavarian CSU politician and his 'groupies') happy.  If this group isn't enthusiastic or hopeful for the future....then their lack of enthusiasm will doom the CDU efforts in September.  There's literally no job or 'honor' that Laschet can create for this problem.

3.  It's hard to find any political expert who sees a positive way forward for the CDU Party.  

The best way to compare this trend?  It'd be like a soccer club that has traded away their best player, and acquired a two-star guy in the exchange.  Then the management of the club blabbering about having winning potential while looking like a marginal two-star club.  

Words Over Covid-19 and Quarantine

 My quarantine ended this morning....so I will offer these observations:

1.  Quarantine enthusiasm hypes at the 4th day, and from that point, it's a pretty negative experience.....particularly if you reside with someone in a 70-odd square meter place, with a small balcony.  

The general feeling of wanting to escape?  That comes around by the 8th day, and you'd like to just sneak out at 4 AM and disappear for sixteen hours.

2.  I was kind of lucky in that the wife had a stock of food in the house, and we had enough to survive out the quarantine period.  

3.  If you start out at 7 AM....watching ARD (public TV) news, and just leave the channel on for the remainder of the day (the next 16 hours).....there's over 300 minutes of Covid-19 news spread throughout the day.  It's not a wise thing to watch ARD that much.

4.  Thank God that I had Netflix and Disney-Plus.  I probably watched 120 man-hours of movies and TV shows.  

5.  The local county health authority did call every single morning (even weekends).....to ensure we were OK, and we weren't 'sneaking-off'.  

6.  Finally, at the end of a quarantine, you really feel like going to a hardware or landscaping store for ten hours....and spending a fair amount of money.  

Blotter Story

 Locally, the police reported this story and it's likely to generate a fair amount of hostility.

So in the region, this older couple got this phone call.  In the beginning, it was a lady on the line, suggesting the adult daughter of the couple had gotten into police-trouble.

Then some lawyer (well, he said he was a lawyer) got on the line, and said that the daughter (who was never on the line).....had run over (killed) some 'mother' of two kids while crossing the 'zebra-stripes', in Limburg. 

High-bail was being set for the daughter and to get her release....several thousand Euro needed to be handed to some bail bondsman.  

So the older couple....without calling the daughter or driving to the location....acquired 'several-thousand' Euro.  Some guy arrived at the house door, and the money handed over. 

Then the couple figured out the bogus story, and called the real cops.

Money?  Gone.

There are two integral parts of this story which a reasonable German would have stopped upon and questioned.  

First, bail bondsmen in Germany don't exist, period.  Maybe if you've watched enough Magnum PI or Murder She Wrote.....you believe they exist.....but in reality, no....there's no such people.

Second, judges only hold people if there is murder, in the first degree.  

This type of crap being done on a regular basis?  If you read through the Mainz or Wiesbaden police-blotter....there's probably a dozen calls like this done each week.  In the past, they were mostly about a lotto that you won, or a traffic ticket from ten years ago.  

Polling Chatter

 There's a fairly big political story over at N-TV/RTL this morning.....over polling done in the past day or two.

If an election were held today, the CDU/CSU Parties would hold only a 21-percent situation (having lost 7 points over the past two weeks).

The winner (if an election were held)?  The Green Party, at 28-percent.

The SPD Party?  They moved down, to around 13-percent.

The FDP Party?  They moved up, to 12-percent.

AfD held at their previous amount.....12-percent.

The Linke Party marginally were noted...at 7-percent.

A reflection of Baerbock being selected as the Green Party Chancellor candidate, and Laschet selected as the CDU candidate?  More or less. 

More decline to occur?  It wouldn't really shock me if the CDU numbers fell to around 16 to 17 percent, and the FDP gained six points to actually be in some weird second-place situation.  I wouldn't be that surprised if the SPD Party lost two or three more points and actually fell beneath the AfD Party.  

So settle back for a fairly entertaining election in September.  

Polling Over the Chancellor 'Race'

 If you go back over the past two weeks, and look at the FORSA and INSA polling groups, then consider the three most likely 'contenders' (Scholz of the SPD, Baerbock of the Greens, and Laschet of the CDU).....this is what you see....the majority of people don't like none of the three (this ranges from 39 to 43 percent).

The chief contender?  Baerbock, with around 18 to 23 percent.

2nd place?  Scholz of the SPD, 17 to 18 percent.

Last place?  Laschet of the CDU with 14 to 16 percent. 

What can you take out of this unique election?  I would suggest three things:

1.  Sitting out there with a party percentage of 11-percent is the FDP Party and their party 'boss' Christian Lindner.  I think it's entirely likely that Lindner will now draw conservative voters (that typically would vote for the CDU), and you might see them surge by September to around 16 to 17 percent.  

2.  This becomes more of an election on how the coalition is formed under Baerbock and the Green Party.  It's possible that the Greens could get enough....along with the FDP and the SPD....to close the CDU entirely out of the next government.

3.  I think the majority of Germans will say by September that they just aren't that enthusiastic about any of the four possible party contenders. You might go through a four-year period of public frustration.

How Big a Deal is the Saxony-Anhalt State Election Now?

 It's the next state election to occur in Germany (6th of June).

There are three 'signs' that you might gain through the outcome here:

1.  If a negative stance is taken by the public over the CDU's Laschet as the Chancellor-candidate....this would be a moment where it might be noticed.

2.  Green gains?  Up until now, it was generally believed that the Greens would take 9 to 10 percent in the state election.  With Baerbock as their candidate?  Might it be a five-point gain (getting closer to 14 or 15 percent) in the state election?

3.  The AfD is fairly situated in second place (at least from January polling) at around 23 percent.  It would be a curious outcome if they plugged up two or three more points and somehow 'won' this election.

I might go and suggest that this is not a huge deal because it reflects only around 1.1-million voters and their view of events in this eastern state.  

Federal Rental 'Brake' Coming?

 There's an enormous amount of pressure building up in Germany....for the Berlin federal leadership to devise some regulation to control rental prices.  The odds of this happening?  

It's an election year, and I would suggest that virtually everyone is 'hot' to show some accomplishment.

What happens after they deliver the 'rental brake'?

I would suggest one of two things:

1.  An absolute halt on renovation for apartments across the nation, and it'll be very obvious within the next three years.

2.  Some path drilled out to flip public apartment buildings to condos instead.  

Political Chatter

N-TV hyped this story here in the AM today. 

Last night, the CDU Party executive committee held a lengthily (6-hour) meeting.  There should be 46 members in this group.

The topic of discussion?  Who they would stand behind for Chancellor.

The 'winner'?  Armin Laschet......with 31 members voting for him, and 9 for Soder.  Then, there were six abstentions. 

Is this the end of the discussion?

There could be a demand put forward by all members of the CDU Party.....that they all have a 'voice'.  If that is going to happen....it probably needs to occur in the next two to three weeks.

Laschet odds of winning?  I would put them at a fairly low level and suggest the Green Party with Baerbock....has a better chance.

So why Soder (the CSU Premier-President from Bavaria) is not acceptable?  The pro-Merkel group wants someone who is probably more of a carbon-copy of Merkel, and they believe that Laschet is that person.  

If we go down this path with Laschet?  It could be the lowest number of votes since the end of the war.  If you were a voter and just not enchanted with the guy....your alternate vote is probably the FDP or SPD Chancellor candidate.  

All of this just inches things forward toward a Green Party victory.

Outdoor Instruction

 Over the past couple of days....around Berlin, various politicians have been chatting over the idea of 'outdoor' teaching.  ARD (public TV) covered the topic to some degree today.

So the concept is.....you could teach in city parks, sports areas, picnic areas, and the woods.....in order to avoid Covid-19.

I sat and pondered over this.  A lot of the urbanized areas simply don't offer anything that really fits for this type of situation, if schools attempted this on a massive scale.

The weather warming up for this concept?  Lately, it's been getting up around 14C (57 degrees F).  

What's the New Covid-Curfew Rule Look Like?

 Well....this morning, via N-TV and radio news ....it appears that the new Covid-curfew rule will be a starting time of 10 PM (NOT 9 PM).

Added to the rule deal....you would be allowed to leave for work prior to 5 AM. 

Also, you'd be able to exit the house/apartment prior to 5 AM....to walk your dog. 

Plus, there would be a clause written into the law which says you can go jogging or plain regular walks from 10 PM to Midnight.  

Now, most Americans would ask....do Germans typically go jogging at 10 PM?  Well....no.  I would take a guess out of the city of Wiesbaden (285,000 residents)....there might be 20,000 regular joggers, but the vast number....probably 90-percent...would jog during the daylight hours.  Looking for some local resident who'd jog at 10 PM at night?  It's probably fewer than twenty individuals in that group.

As for people just out for a walk at 10 PM?  You just aren't going to find many people in that category either.  

Now, back when bars and restaurants were open...it was a different story.  You might have found 10,000 local folks easily walking from the bar, club, or restaurant past the 10 PM point....walking back home...just on a regular Tuesday or Thursday evening.

So is this curfew rock-solid?  Well.....it only falls into play if your local town has an incidence rate of Covid....of 100 or more....over three consecutive days.   Once it falls below that rate....you go back to regular 'no-curfew' situations.  

If you don't like the curfew deal?  Well...just start drinking early (like at 5 PM) and get a head-start on boozing-up.  Or wait until 5 AM.....then start boozing up or partying at that timeframe.  Personally, I think 5 AM partying would probably appeal to the under-20 crowd....starting out with pancakes or an omelet....then launching into an appealing Bavarian beer or two (or three).   

Baerbock as Chancellor-Candidate?

 The Green Party held a meeting this morning, and let the news go.....their Chancellor-candidate is done, and will be Annalena Baerbock.

A big deal?

The Greens started out in 1980, and after the Wall came down.....did an alliance with eastern Germans.....referring to themselves from that point on as 'Alliance 90/Green Party'.   

In the era of 1980 to 2000....they finally hit the 5-percent or more situation in 1983's national election. From that point on....for about twenty years....they were able to win in the 8-percent range.

In the 2009 national election, they managed a 10.7-percent win....showing some growth finally.

What's happened since the 2017 national election?  The Greens have carved away SPD's traditional voters.  They stand presently (in polls) to have 20 to 22 percent of the national vote.  

Some think....with Baerbock now as the 'brand-salesperson'....the Greens finally have a chance to clear 25 percent of the vote (taking a huge segment away from the SPD).

The end of the SPD as a dynamic player in German elections?  From my prospective, there are three key things being played out:

1.  The SPD 'brand' is mostly older male candidates, and it's obvious when they do public forum appearances.  

2.  The SPD kind of dumped it's attachment to the middle-class working-class voter over the past two decades.  That's also very obvious part of this story.

3.  Finally, if you wander around highly urbanized areas (Hamburg, Bremen, Stuttgart, Dresden, Frankfurt, etc)....the political topics that sell to the public well...are owned and controlled by the Green Party.  

I might go and suggest that the SPD Party will be lucky to get around 12-to-15 percent of the national vote in September.....which would really reset the political stage for the next decade ahead.

As for potential for Baerbock to win?  Even if they come in second-place....the Greens will have finally shown the strength to carry out political agendas.  It's entirely possible that the CDU (potentially winning) will have to forge a coalition, and Baerbock ends up as the Vice-Chancellor, and hold portfolio of Foreign Minister, or Finance Minister.  

As for the number person in the Greens now?  Robert Habeck?  If Baerbock accepts the Finance Minister job.....Habeck would end up as the Foreign Minister job.  So for him....it's still a win-win situation.

With the five months remaining for the election....settle back and watch the landscape...it should be interesting.

Soccer Riot?

 Most soccer games in Germany are still 'ghost-games'....meaning that the teams, the referees, and some journalists are allowed in the stadium.  

Over the weekend, if you review German sports news....there was this weird affair down in Saarbrucken....where the third-level local team met up with the FCK (Kaiserslautern) team.  

The game ended with Kaiserslautern winning.....2 to 1.

Then things got hectic in the downtown area of Saarbrucken....with four-hundred to five-hundred local guys (who weren't allowed in the stadium anyway).....having a bit to drink (remember, bars are closed and you have to buy your booze/beer via local kiosks or grocery stores).

In the midst of things....fireworks were lit, and the police were called to settle what was described as a 'riot'.

Covid worries coming out of this?  It really doesn't take much now for politicians or city officials to get all hyped-up and worried over the spread of Covid from events like this.

Covid Party?

 Over the weekend in Koln...the police got called.  A party was underway, which in Covid-times.....is illegal.

N-TV carried this story in the AM today, and it's a curious piece.

Dorm setting....thirty to thirty-five people at the party.  Strangely enough....a mix of teachers and medical personnel.  

The party centered on some of the medical folks graduating from their 'tests'.  

Drug use reported as well?  Well....yeah.

So just on the party itself.....that's going to be a fine for each person.  But then you have the 9 PM curfew business to deal with, and that's going to be potentially up to 250 Euro per person.  

Messerschmidt Car Returning?

 Back in 1955....the Messerschmidt company (famous for planes) went into business to produce the three-wheel KR175, which was an odd-looking car.

It was a rear-engine, rear-wheel-drive....which looked more like a aircraft cockpit....mounted three wheels.  Power?  9.9 horse-power.  Max speed?  90 kph.  

It was affordable....at 2,500 DMs, and the first year of production was around 12,000.

The selling point of the era?  It was a guy's car....something sporty and weird.  

Interest in continuing the production?  Well....this was the problem....Messerschmidt saw an opportunity to get back into aircraft, and this was a brief two-year effort.....then they dumped it to another company....Fend.  

The car came to an end around 1964, and the total number of production stood at 40,000 (more or less).

I bring all of this up over the three-wheeler.....because there's new interest....in a E-Car version....KR E-5000.....which would run off batteries.  HP?  6.7 max.  Top speed?  90 kph.

The negative?  A four to five hour charge would get you around 80 kilometers.  

Cost-factor?  Right now, the chatter is 15,500 Euro.  

N-TV had a good update over the vehicle.

A German product?  Well....NO, this would be made in the Malaga-region of Spain....along the southern coast.

Capturing interest?  The range business (80 km) is crappy and would probably not be a plus-up.  Maybe if there were a small gas-powered engine onboard....to continue the charge-up while driving....giving it a more extended range...I'd suggest more public interest.

The other negative is the crash-survivability situation.  If you gaze over the pictures of the vehicle....there's just no steel there to protect you (that was the issue in the 1950s as well).  It's the kind of vehicle you'd drive around town or in some urbanized area....hoping you never got hit by a delivery-truck or city-bus.  

Data Story

 A couple of months ago, some German data collection folks were doing analysis over Covid-19 infection rates, and latched onto this odd statistical thing....that areas with serious unemployment rates have higher infection rates.  

This morning while watching N-24 news.....the same discussion started up, but with a newer set of data.  Same issue....urbanized area....higher unemployment numbers....higher rate of Covid infection.  

You can't really come to a rationalized reason for this trend going 'hand-in-hand'.

Unemployed folks hanging out with each other?  Lesser attention to hygiene or mask situations?  Unknown. 

Drop-out Story

 MDR did a update which caught my attention and it's worth a minute to pause over.  

Youth welfare offices throughout Germany are reviewing the data and suggesting that the general number of 210k school drop-outs....on average....will double in 2021....because of Covid-19.

Having the assets or tools to handle this type of mess?  I would suggest that whoever 'wins' the September national election, and gets to the office of Chancellor....has a pretty fair mess on their hands for the next four years, with increasing youth confrontations and youth-led demonstrations increasing.  

Fake Shot Cards?

 Here in the Hessen region (my local state of Germany)....the State Criminal Police Office (LKA) came out yesterday with an interesting 'warning'.

They apparently have noticed a trend with fake Covid-19 vaccination cards. 

What they are saying is that the certificates are easily copied and with a little enhancement.....can generally fool anyone.

They are kinda hinting that a digital certificate will probably have to be pursued.  

The odds that someone is already working on an angle for a fake digital certificate?  It's best not to bring up that topic.  

Book Story

 In recent days, a new book has arrived in Germany...creating a 'wave' of chatter among politicians and journalists.  

Written by Linke Party member, Sahra Wagenknecht, title: Die Selbst Gerechten (translating to The Self Righteous).  345 pages total, and currently only in German (I'm hopeful of a English translation by summer).

So to talk over Wagenknecht.....she was the Linke Party 'chief' for several years, and continually brought onto chat forums to explain the position of the party.  On debate capability....I'd rate her near a '9'.  

As for what she does with this book?  Well.....she's slamming modern politics in a severe way.

I've read through about twenty reader reviews, with the bulk of them fairly positive.

Her hit on politics?  It's lifestyle left that exists today....not a political left.  People are motivated to be intolerant and self-righteous.  In simple terms, you have squares to fill, and if you can't fill them....you are not part of the agenda group.  

The book likely drawing attention in  an election year?  Probably....but in some ways, it's hurting the brand of the Greens, SPD Party, and even the Linke Party.  

New German Study on Covid

 Focus had a piece up today and chatted over this development.

The deal?  The German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases (DZNE) did research over 2020, and can now say in factual way (with data)....that every fifth person who gets over their case of Covid-19.....has lost their antibodies protection after six months.  

A big deal?  They tested over 5,000 individuals, which makes it a decent study.  

So, even if you avoided the vaccination, and just relied up old-fashioned catch-it and develop immunity....this only gets you to six months of true protection.  

The 'Warning' Story

 With Covid business confining me to a great extent (day 12)....I sat down yesterday to view Disney-Plus, and decided to watch one of my all-time classic favorites....Swiss Family Robinson, the 1960-version with John Mills.

As a kid, I read the novel around age ten and thought it was a fascinating story.  The 1960 version of the novel?  It holds fairly true....via the script and the characters.  

So as I clicked on the movie....this 'warning-page' came up.  In simple terms, they wanted to warn me that the book and the movie were made in a time when racism was deemed 'approved' in some fashion, and I should not hold it against the Disney folks for this production. 

I hit the halt-button and paused over this 'warning'.

It's a childish and juvenile-like silly game that is being played out.  I'm guessing if you did run a school library these days....this is probably on some shelf that requires the librarian to indoctrinate you first before you get all 'triggered'.

Uncle Tom's Cabin?  Tom Sawyer?  Hunchback of Notre Dame?  The Three Musketeers? Candide?  Cannery Row?  

It'd have to be a full-time person orientating kids at the library.....warning them about this, and that.  

The only safe books to read?  Harry Potter, Stephen King novels, and sex-romp-adventures in Barbados.  

After that ten-minute 'burn'.....I hit the button and began to watch the movie.  By the end....it's what you'd consider an old-fashion Disney classic....staying near the original book, and decent acting.  Signs of anything that would 'trigger' me?  No.  

Curfew Discussion

 For about three weeks, the German national government folks have been sitting around and discussing how a national set of Covid-ban-rules should exist, instead of allowing the individual sixteen states to manage their own affairs.

They claim (at least via the CDU-CSU-SPD coalition) that they are near the end.  The chief sticking point?

Night-time curfew, if your local rate of infection is '100-or-more'.  The CDU-CSU folks want a pretty harsh understanding of curfew (from 9 PM to 5 AM). The SPD?  They say that people should have the right to "go for a walk with your partner in the evening or to do sports outside."   All after 9 PM of course.

Does any of this matter?  Right now, with pubs, bars and dance-halls shutdown.....even if you are outside after 9 PM, other than walking to get the stress out of you.....or to lessen frustrations because of crappy Covid.....it doesn't matter.

If the bars were open?  Well....it'd be different.

Are people obeying the curfew rules now....where cities or states have pushed them?  The police will tell you that they hand out 'tickets' nightly, and that the bulk of society is obeying the ban-rule.

In roughly six weeks, it'll be daylight till 10 PM, and any enforcement of the curfew business will be a joke at that point.  Making the point that this curfew stuff had an affect?  You can't show data or science to that suggestion.  

Even making the suggestion that closing the bars back in November had an effect?   All you did was shift people to the idea of buying more beer or booze at the supermarket, and then slipping out some backdoor....to drink with five or six of your friends in the woods, or along some riverbank.

Political Poll Story

 ARD (public TV, Channel One) did a survey over the Chancellor issue, between Soder and Laschet.  The results?

Forty-four percent of Germans and seventy-two percent of plain CDU-type voters would select Soder.  

ONLY fifteen-percent of Germans and seventeen-percent of plain CDU-voters would select Laschet.

Ending this whole discussion?  You would think that, but nothing appears to settle the discussion.  The pro-Merkel crowd still sees Laschet as their person to carry things to the next level.

On the Green Party discussion (between Baerbock and Habeck)?  A slightly larger group of Greens want Baerbock, but it's only two points in difference.

If this were to continue on, with Laschet picked as the Chancellor-candidate?  I would suggest it's getting close to a 90-percent chance of a Green Party win. 

E-Car Story

 RBB carried an interesting story this morning....over a vehicle fire.

Yesterday....firemen got called out to a dealership....over a car-fire. What they describe is a E-car dealership.....in Berlin-Köpenick.

One car?  No....in the end....four E-cars were burning.

So the firemen lay out this issue of dealing with a E-car fire....mainly that it could take up to four hours to ensure the fire is out, and the site is safe.....way more than way regular cars required.

But there's other odd part of the story.  They also admit that they had to flip cars over....to get to the batteries.  Basically.....destroying the vehicle.

No one says much, but it would appear to me....in cities like Hamburg or Berlin.....you'd have to enlarge the fire departments in the coming years because of the E-car man-hours to put out a fire.  

Rental Brake Discussion

 Months ago, because of the escalating rental costs in Berlin (the city)....the city leadership (SPD-Greens-Linke Party) determined that they had the 'power' to install a rental cost 'brake'.

This was challenged in court.  This morning....the Constitutional Court stood up and said 'no'.....the control over rental prices of a privately-financed apartment building is not possible.

For around a year, this 'control' has been in place and affecting around 1.5-million apartments in Berlin.

Rents now likely to escalate?  I would imagine that nothing will occur for a couple of months, and then some of these (especially those under renovation)....will slide upwards.

All of this trending toward a top-three political issue?  I would suggest that.  Most everyone who lives in a highly urbanized city of Germany.....will whine over the escalation and how the housing market has crapped-out.  The days when you could find a plain basic apartment (1-bedroom) in Frankfurt for 300 Euro (600 DM)....long gone.