Schnitzel Republic: Past Review of CDU Voting Trends

Saturday, April 24, 2021

Past Review of CDU Voting Trends

This is a data 'dump' where the CDU Party is laid out alone (without the CSU votes of Bavaria): (Wiki data)

Sept 2017 national election: CDU: 30-percent (14-million votes)

Sept 2013 national election: CDU: 37.2-percent (16.23-million votes)

Sept 2009 national election: CDU: 32-percent (13.85-million votes)

Sept 2005 national election: CDU: 32.6-percent (15.39-million votes)

Sept 2002 national election: CDU: 32.1-percent (15.33-million votes)

Sept 1998 national election: CDU: 32.2-percent (15.85-million votes), last time Kohl ran and lost.

Oct 1994 national election: CDU: 37.2-percent (17.47-million votes)

Dec 1990 national election: CDU: 38.3-percent (17.07-million votes). First united Germany vote.

Jan 1987 West Germany election: CDU: 37.5-percent (14.78-million votes)

Mar 1983 West Germany election: CDU: 41-percent (15.94-milllion votes)

Oct 1980 West Germany election: CDU: 35.6-percent (16.80-million votes)

Oct 1976 West Germany election: CDU: 38.3-percent (14.42-million votes)

Nov 1972 West Germany election: CDU: 35.7-percent (13.30-million votes)

Sep 1969 West Germany election: CDU: 37.1-percent (12.13-million votes)

Sep 1965 West Germany election: CDU: 38.9-percent (12.63-million votes)

Sep 1961 West Germany election: CDU: 36.3-percent (11.62-million votes)

Sep 1957 West Germany election: CDU: 39.7-percent (11.97-million votes)

Sep 1953 West Germany election: CDU: 34.8-percent (9.57-million votes)

Aug 1949 West Germany election: CDU: 25.2-percent (5.97-million votes)

Analysis: You can take three general trends into consideration. First, the CDU alone (without the CSU results)....tend to take 30-percent or more in each election since the 1950s. Second, the peak of national votes for the CDU occurred before Merkel arrived. Third, the CDU generally needs 14-million votes or more....to really ensure any type of 'win'.

Looking at September 2021? It's going to be tough for the CDU to get to the 12-million or more vote level. If the turnout is around 76-percent (like 2017), I'd have my doubts that the CDU can generate more than 20-percent of the national voting trend.

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