(Remember, I write this essay piece not as a German, but as an American observing the trends)
1. When the party 'flipped' in the summer of 2015....the new party chief was Frauke Petry. She lasted for twenty-six months and was then dumped.
Since the fall of 2017, a maturing period has taken place.....some elements are trying to herd the party toward a 'centralist-right' position (if there was one to actually exist).
(Yeah, I consider the Petry period to be a place-holder era....nothing more)
I would suggest that the current top two (Jörg Meuthen and Tino Chrupalla) are marginally holding the party together in this effort to show it being moderate. At any given party meeting....you could have both dumped, and another agenda direction established. That's somewhat of a negative just laying there in anticipation of something happening.
2. The anti-migration or anti-asylum trend topic? It's not in the top three political topics at this point. If I gathered up a hundred working-class Germans....the vast majority probably wouldn't even put the topic in the top ten issues.
Why? After 2017....Merkel's crew (the CDU), along with the SPD and Greens all began to realize that they were losing numbers....so they invented an invisible migration policy. The rules are marginally ever bent or loosen now. They exercise an deportation program that 'occasionally' is shown in some public show. They've convinced the general public that there's only marginal immigrational issues existing.
An illusion? Maybe....but you can sense that there's some fear about trending this into another 2016/2017 mess, and giving more votes back to the AfD Party once again.
3. The AfD Party wasted the past five years not building substantial secondary issues?
There should have been a direct appeal toward 'fixing' the welfare program, and bringing hundreds of thousands of those voters into the camp.
In various states....economics, trade, commerce, and jobs should have been a major topic.
4. The AfD campaign from a couple of years ago for women to re-occupy traditional roles in the home? That probably wasn't a brilliant move.
If you asked the working crowd....it's probably agreed upon in maybe ten-percent of cases, or less.
5. The position of mandatory conscription for Germans into the Army? If you were walking around and trying to find public sentiment on this....it's not a top ten issue....or a top twenty issue....or even a top one-hundred issue.
6. Finally....state by state, the trends lines are different. The weakest points in Germany for AfD? NW (Bremen, NRW, and Hamburg)....at 5-to-7 percent voting.
The chief points of power? Mecklenburg, Brandenburg, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia (all at plus 20-percent).
The trend? Public appeal in the eastern region....public rejection in the western region.
In locations where the economy thrives....there isn't that much appeal. They thrive more in downward economical regions.
Polling now for the September national election? Various polls put them up to around 11-to-12-percent.
7 comments:
imo , if euro and american women dont return to the traditional roles ( or some similarity ) we caucasions are screwed . the MGTOW and red pill movement is snowballing and quite simply -- we men will not partake in relationships with masculine women .
the ( youtube ) MGTOW movement is heavily occupied with black american males . when you listen to enough of their stories about the attitudes of the black females , it doesnt take long to understand why there are too few fathers in the homes .
women will not rule over men . we'll watch it all burn with unbridled glee before that happens .
also germany needs to do something about their energy needs . blowing putin is a recipe for disaster . im with the adf on these items .
Traditional roles 'evolution' has been going on for thousands of years, and it will continue to evolve. Add to the current image that you see that WW I/II each depleted two-million-plus German men from landscape (young men, for the most part). There's around 15-million less people in the population as 1946 comes around. So women took up the roles required in industry, science, medicine, education, and commerce. It will continue to evolve.
As for the energy episode, I kind of suspect that as this 'little' war starts in Ukraine shortly...the Nord Stream II project will cease entirely, and a lot of debate will occur over the natural gas situation. Presently, Russia is the provider of about 35-to-40 percent of Germany's natural gas. They have enough EU partners to supplement this, if required. As for the Russian oligarchs who deal in the gas business...the sudden cash problem would be a disaster for them.
all movement is not forward and all change is not progress .
btw . how is your wife doing ( with the covid ) ?
im putting off my vaccination for now . the media has reached a point where my first inclination is to take every word they say with a truckload of salt driven directly up my butthole .
Covid-wise (on day 8/9) both the wife and I are in the recovering phase. I'd say by Friday you could test either of us and we'd be negative.
On the level of this? I'd call it a decent 3-star to 4-star 'flu-like' situation. Fever came and went...smell/taste suffered....and for me, the cough was the bigger problem.
I'd say if your health is rather decent, no serious bad health habits...you might not suffer that much. It would be helpful if they had a test and determined that the virus would have a mild-effect or serious-effect. Wife's co-worker had to be taken by ambulance to the hospital but ONLY because of dehydration (she wasn't sipping water). After they hydrated her...the next day, they kicked out of the hospital and brought her home.
At the current pace of the priority system...none of us would get the 'invite' (either via the Germans or the US military system) until mid-summer. I'd practice good hygiene, avoid the crowds, and sanitize whenever out in public. I might also stock up on beverages, beer and such....just in case something did happen (getting quarantined isn't pleasant). Your fun-factor is gone by day five.
thanks for the info sir .
a little backstory;
i came out of the us army ( germany ) in 1979 with hepc . like yourself i read a lot . i eventually found one single article that reported on a 17 year global study of the spread of hepc . for the purpose of the study they had to exclude the group of people who had been infected by contaminated vaccines . gee , i wonder who that group was ?
im not a doctor , not a veterinarian either but i know horses*it when i smell it . this covid scare smacks of the wacky tabaccy . the sturgis rally was a near criminal superspreader event yet the Belt Loops Matter peaceful protests and the illegals pouring over our southern border dont seem cause for concern .
also there wasnt one damn vaccine released until cornpop and cameltoe got the white house .
my va doc is going to be pissed about my rejection of the shot but when i turn 65 i intend to switch to medicare and get out of the va anyway . they have too much power over the lives of vets . i appreciate them . they stomped the hepc after 4 hellish treatments over 15 years but i dont want them in charge of my geriatric years . losing self determination is an oldtimers greatest nightmare .
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