If you go back over the past two weeks, and look at the FORSA and INSA polling groups, then consider the three most likely 'contenders' (Scholz of the SPD, Baerbock of the Greens, and Laschet of the CDU).....this is what you see....the majority of people don't like none of the three (this ranges from 39 to 43 percent).
The chief contender? Baerbock, with around 18 to 23 percent.
2nd place? Scholz of the SPD, 17 to 18 percent.
Last place? Laschet of the CDU with 14 to 16 percent.
What can you take out of this unique election? I would suggest three things:
1. Sitting out there with a party percentage of 11-percent is the FDP Party and their party 'boss' Christian Lindner. I think it's entirely likely that Lindner will now draw conservative voters (that typically would vote for the CDU), and you might see them surge by September to around 16 to 17 percent.
2. This becomes more of an election on how the coalition is formed under Baerbock and the Green Party. It's possible that the Greens could get enough....along with the FDP and the SPD....to close the CDU entirely out of the next government.
3. I think the majority of Germans will say by September that they just aren't that enthusiastic about any of the four possible party contenders. You might go through a four-year period of public frustration.
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