At this point, it's highly likely that the Green Party (with Baerbock as Chancellor candidate) will win, and it'll be in the 29 percent range (my numbers in the guesswork).
To form a coalition, they need to total up to 50-plus percent.
Option A: Some left-left-left situation, with the Green, SPD and Linke Party adding up. Presently, I give this a 20-percent chance of occurring. The Linke Party is showing dismal 7-percent numbers, and the SPD is presently down near 14 percent. That won't get the number needed up to 50-percent.
Option B: The Greens turn to the CDU/CSU group (16 percent/8 percent). Somewhere in this discussion....the CDU wakes up to realize that the CSU won't agree to anything, and part of this dilemma goes to the behavior of Laschet to Soder.
Option C: The Greens then turn to this crazy combo....the Greens, the CSU and the FDP. The CDU starts to go ballistic and suggest an end to their 'friendship'. The CSU responds....'fine'.
At this point, a weird political relationship develops for the next four years. Recovery for the CDU? A lot of people might go suggesting the party is dissolving away.....suggesting the same for the SPD.
No comments:
Post a Comment