I was out today....driving by the village gas station.
E-10 unleaded? 2.24 Euro a liter ($2.40 US a liter)......so figure $10.16 per gallon for fuel.
Yeah, it's hefty and been building up over the past four months....but really increasing in a major way for past five days.
Discount of 32 Euro-cents on gas tax to occur tomorrow (per liter). Hard to say if really slows the rate down.
Welt, the German newspaper, wrote up a suggestive commentary today called 'Dysfunctional State' (by Susanne Gaschke). If you can find today's Welt....might be worth a read.
The focus here? Things don't function at the rate of expectations. It's not just a physical thing.....it goes off into education, medicine, public safety, politics and even the Bahn (train services).
Adding to this frustration....when politicians talk about resolutions or repairs....you get the impression that it's mostly BS, and whatever they attempt.....generally just makes into a totally new and different problem.
So as Gaschke suggests.....this has "bad consequences" for the country.
My gut-feeling, as an outsider?
When I arrived for my original 'tour' in 1978.....I was pretty impressed with landscape of Germany. Trains ran on time and were safe. You could walk around various areas of Hamburg or Frankfurt and feel safe. Watever services you used....worked.
But as each decade passed, you tended to notice that they added to the formula. Things are complicated and where you had a limited number of failures to expect in 1985.....you can triple those potential failures here in 2022.
Trains of today? The windows don't open, so the air conditioning capability is a 'must-work'. You get a hot day with 37-degrees C? About a quarter of all trains have marginal cooling capability and you might be able to handle 30 minute max in a train-car where it's 40 C or above.....before you have to get off for relief.
Stabbing worries? In and around the Frankfurt station, you pay attention to your surroundings, and the idiots who seem hinged. You don't linger.....you go direct from tram to train, and get the hell out of the station.
There's probably a list of a thousand things that I would tell you are more complicated today (in Germany) than it was in 1999.
The older Germans? They recognize this odd change in society and will openly discuss it. As complicated as things have become......people have this belief they ought to perform/work....at the 100-percent point (they can't do that any longer).
Politics? It's funny. You can get minute-by-minute coverage via public TV now (something you couldn't get in 1978). Each evening now, you probably get 20 minutes of public political news, and scratch your head over various arguments....that lead onto more arguments.....that lead onto more promises.
Any of this getting better? No, that's the one thing you can depend upon.
At least twice a week, I go and 'hang-out' at a German fitness center. It is a bit different from Air Force or Army gyms of my 'glory years'. So there's five things I've come to notice:
1. With this place, you have to make a hour-by-hour reservation (the 'boss' won't allow more than 25 people in at one time. So you tend to notice the 4 PM slot is always about fifteen folks there, and the majority are teenies (15 to 20 years old).
If you go at 9 AM (my favorite time)....it's five or six people and everyone is over the age of sixty.
For the teenies, this is a social thing.....buff-up, BS while pumping iron, soccer chatter, showing funny videos while working out. For the retirees, it's no social stuff....just work out and get the hell out of the place at completion.
2. German guys spend almost nothing on work-out clothing. It's not even unusual to see a guy with black socks on, a cheap 15 Euro pair of shorts, and a plain white t-shirt.
German women? They tend to spend big bucks on some fitness outfit that looks 80 to 100 Euro. With them, looks matter while working out. Guys....less so.
3. A entire room is built-up and utilized for stretching. I never see more than one person in the room (size of a normal apartment), and question the necessity of stretching.
4. It amazes me the number of German teenie females and 20s females lifting free-weights and heavily indulging in muscle building.
5. We have this one 'customer' who walks around and wants to offer advice on fitness....while the studio 'boss/crew stand there and shake their head over 90-percent of his advice.
I'm guessing he reads fitness magazines and he thinks that he is an expert off of this.
Finally, I will say this.....in the youth years (military time), I just did X, Y and Z for fitness. I could have written a single index card (3 x 5) with what I'd typically do for fitness and it would have been valid for two decades. Maybe times changed, but if you asked these people at the studio.....they probably have a dozen index cards of fitness habits/exercises, and for some of them....it's like the 'gospel of Luke'.
I sat and watched N-TV's update on Monkeypox this morning.
Generally, you say three things:
1. As of last night....there are 21 cases in Germany.
2. The spread situation? Well....it's mostly a man-to-man situation (sexually)....that you get the pox.
3. No one is suggesting any death situation with this virus (even though in Africa....there was a 1-to-3 percent chance of you dying).
As of this morning, the numbers came out......7.9-percent on inflation. Hefty and it's worrying a lot of Germans.
This is one of those stories rarely told (even in Germany).
On the 11th of June, 1964....a 42-year old early retiree....walked into a local school in Koln Germany, with a home-made flame-thrower and killed 8 kids/2 teachers. Additionally, 20 kids/2 teachers were fairly wounded/burnt.
The guy in question? He ended up committing suicide at the end....swallowing pesticide (at the school).
The rest of the story? Well...this was a guy who'd gone off to WW II, and ended up with TB (held as a prisoner for part of his war years). At some point in 1953, he applied for early retirement, with the idea that the TB came from his years in the war.
Government evaluation? It concludes that he was only 30-percent disabled, and his suggestion of the war years giving him TB....was bogus.
It's safe to say that several years went by in this argument stage, and his relationships with doctors/government officials soured to a great extent.
At some point, German doctors believe he's got paranoid schizophrenia. So he's sent off for an eval.
The eval comes back, and simply determines that he's not dangerous. They don't really say much of the schizophrenia, and one can imagine that he probably was borderline dangerous at this point.
At this stage....he ends up having an argument with his brother. The story told (you have to wonder how much is fact and how is bogus)....the brother says this guy (then living in the parent's basement at early 30s)....wanted to dig down another level in the basement to create a basement under the basement. Why? Well....he explained that he wanted to 'capture' some young people for what seems to be a torture fantasy.
About two years after this....he ends up married. But this happy period of his life kinda ends after the wife dies during childbirth.
Shortly after this.....the guy writes up a 120-page manefesto (yeah, he's one of those folks). Title? 'Matricide - Individual Destiny and Analysis of a System'. In case you were wondering about what 'matricide' meant? Well....the killing of your mother.
He actually sent copies of this to the authorities and some doctors. You'd think that they'd refer it to a judge and have the guy put away. No....nothing was done.
So three years pass, and then the school attack occurs.
Weapon of choice? Home-made flame-thrower, and a 'lance'.
For a number of years, there was discussions in Germany over the acting (or non-acting) of authorities....if they'd just realized his behavior issues and the threat to society that he represented. Eventually, the topic dropped, and German society moved on....waiting for the next nutcase.
This lackadaisical attitude by leadership (not just a German or American problem)....goes mostly to the perception/idea that maybe people aren't that big of a threat, and they'd rather not house the person in a restricted situation. You can try to hold people responsible....but in the end....we all tend to forget about the event, and just move on.
Footnote: some review of his body was done in the weeks after his death, and doctors said that he was not suffering at this point from active TB. Additionally, the leadership of Koln decided to tear down the school, and build a new one. I should note....it was around 15 years later before an actual new structure (not a school) was built on the grounds. Oddly enough, completed in 1983....by 2018, it was deemed in a dangerous situation as a structure, and no one was supposed to use the building.
Well.....it goes this way.
The Bundestag passed a 90-day discount on the gas tax....figure around 32-euro cents off the normal E-10 fuel cost (per liter). Today? Gas runs at 2.10 Euro per liter, for reference. Come Wed, in theory, gas would be 1.78 per liter.
Stations started talking about how they are handling this. They AREN'T ordering more fuel...intending on Wed AM to buy more fuel at the rate from the distribution centers.
So there's some feeling that come Tuesday.....some stations will be out of fuel, and by Wed AM....when the discount should hit....a fair number will be operating with no fuel available until the delivery occurs.
Massive issue for Wed/Thur? In some areas, I suspect so. But the reality should be a functioning system by Thursday afternoon.
1. I sat and read over a social media comment today....which suggested that Putin was in effect....the 'capo' (mafia boss) of the Russian crime/state syndicate.
So yeah.....when you look over the Oligarch crew (inner circle and the outer circle)....it's probably not a false comparison.
But the problem here....European leaders will drag the 'capo' over to the legit lineup and pretend that they can deal with him in the real world (when they can't). So which is worse....the Macon/Scholz crowd, or the 'capo' himself?
2. This week.....on Wednesday.....gas prices are supposed to drop by 32 cents (E10 fuel) because of the 90 day 'recess'. Some chatter going on that the paperwork isn't there yet to ensure at opening time on Wed....the prices drop.
A fair number of Germans have not bought fuel (my wife is one) and is timing her next fill-up for Wed morning. I expect a huge crowd that morning to be making an effort to refuel (wouldn't surprise me if 50-perent of all car-owners are in this chaotic morning effort).
3. Some chatter starting up that the retirement/pension age (set now for 2029....to be age 67)....might have to be raised again in five to ten years....to age 70.
Yeah, that has freaked a few Germans out who are in their 40s.
The Labor Minister has come out and said 'no'....it's not on his dream list.
Why bring this up? Well....there's chatter of a labor shortage likely to grow, because of the birth rate, and that some folks might be dragged into this longer work situation.
4. German police now under a criminal investigation? Well....this story leads back to the ZDF (public TV, Channel Two) comedy show....'ZDF Magazine Royale'.
The Royale has done some stories that irked various folks, and 'threats' via social media have been made. So the Royale 'boss' (Bohmermann) said 'enough', and took complaints to the police.
The police action? Bohmermann believes they aren't taking him serious and the investigation has been slow-rolled. So, now there's a criminal investigation of police actions.
A case? Hard to say.....but here's one odd twist....this is a comedy show, and the police might be looking at this and asking part of this....is a comedy act itself. It might all be legit on threats.
This week, I spent two hours reading over what was commonly called the 'France-Russia War', or the Russia Campaign, or the 2nd Polish War, or the 2nd Polish Campaign, or the Patriotic War of 1812, and the War of 1812, Yeah, historians really get into this Napoleon episode.
Oddly, it fits into the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war scenario.
So, to briefly introduce you to the war.
Historians say the war started on 24 June 2012. For the most part, they are not accounting for the 'walk/march' from the border of France to the Nemen River (Vilnius, Lithuania). If you eyeball the river....getting from France to that point, it'll take you a minimum of 36 days (figuring you have a willing nature to march 40 km each day). So the march probably started closer to mid-May.
The number of troops involved for Napoleon? Historians will argue over this. The general number is 620k to 690k (assembled from sixteen empires/states).
From the period of 1807 to 1812....there were various political strategies at play by various European countries, and Russia seemed connected to each strategy. At one point....Napoleon hinted that he would marry the sister of Tsar Alexander I. This 'deal' (the arranged marriage) fell through, and Napoleon ended marrying the daughter of the Austrian Emperor instead. You can speculate a lot on this....but the Russian marriage might have dramatically changed history in a major way.
So a few months after that.....things are set to 'liberate' the poor Russians from the evil Tsar Alexander I, which the war officially is noted on the 24th of June.
This march from the Nemen River area to Moscow? About 900 km....figure about 22 days.
A fair number of people talk about this summer march, and that by late July....having arrived on the edge of Moscow...most all of Napoleon Army were worn out. If you count in 40 km's of march per day.....summer heat....limited rest....no thrills except wine or beer, it's not the thing that guys really get hyped up about.
Then as they arrive on the edge of Moscow....with all this chatter of liberating the city and expecting people to welcome you, with parades and kisses.....the Napoleon Army discovers that vast majority of the city have left (arguments differ, but most say a minimum of 80-percent of population left). In some odd way, it does resemble the Ukraine war, where Russians felt they would be welcomed and it'd be a short campaign.
Then the city fire started....burning for days. Most historians will say that three-quarters of the city lay in ashes by the end, with the Napoleon Army standing there in amazement of the landscape. There was not much to ransack, and no one to honor them with a parade.
What you can from the brief period of the Moscow fire.....the supplies that Napoleon brought along was of a limited nature. He really needed the war to conclude quickly in Moscow. In his mind....just showing up was enough for the Russians to give up and sign the peace treaty. He figured wrong.
The battle at Borodino (7 September 1812)? It's not what you'd call a win or lose situation. Napoleon ended up (out of 130k of his troops engaging) with around 30,000 lost. From this point on....there was no advantage for the French.
At some point around 19 October, the retreat started up. You can blame forty-odd things but it came down to three basic problems. First, Napoleon did not have the logistics to support more than 45 days of 'war' at the front. Second, the BS factor of Moscow folks feeling liberated....maxed-out at a '9' (on one to ten). Third, the march situation (the summer spent getting there) had left Napoleon with a tired and run-down Army.
So the retreat started up. The war officially ended by mid-December and if you look over total numbers killed 'in action'....France lost around half of it's start-up numbers....with two-thirds of those alive at that point.....dying on the retreat back across the 2,500 kms.
Curiously, a number of historians point to one key factor about Napoleon....that he was not in the physical/mental condition of the previous decade. He had various tumors to be dealt with, and by 1821....would die of stomach cancer.
If you compare Napoleon and Putin....there's a lot of little factors at work.
1. N-TV news brought up this topic of Ukrainian kids in Germany and the need for additional instructors.
According to them....around 242k Ukrainians juveniles are in Germany presently, and the 'system' says at least 13,000 additional teachers/instructors are needed.....to ensure their education continues.
Where they find find this group of 13k? According to the journalists.....several German states are calling up retired German teachers, and asking to come back for a year.
2. NRW's state trend is leading to a CDU-Green state government (yeah, a shocker for the SPD folks).
3. It's a general mystery, but from this C02 tax going on....the idea is that 'poor' or 'working-class' Germans will get a chunk of money as 'relief' if you make 4,000 Euro or less as gross.
Now, you can argue that the C02 tax is filtering into just about everything (food, hotels, fuel, etc).....so everyone (including the working-class) is throwing money at the C02 tax, and it somehow will flow back into your pocket....to pay more C02 tax.
4. There's a suggestion out there....after 1 June, with the 32-Euro cent discount on each liter of gas (only for June, July and August)....that the fuel rate will continue to move up.
Example, this week for E10 unleaded, cost was around 2.10 Euro per liter. In four days, it'll be discounted to 1.78 Euro per liter. If the suggestion is correct....by early August (while still in the discount era)....you would likely be paying near 1.90. So when September arrives....sticker shock would occur where you'd be paying 2.22 Euro.
I'd expect September to be a pretty miserable economic month in Germany.
I sat and read over a comment that someone made on social media yesterday....that Putin's plan 'A' was a 1-year 'war/special operation' to dismantle the Russian economy to the level of total destruction, then leave the mess for someone to recreate Russia from the 'ashes'.
The thing is...there is so much propaganda going on in Russia...that it wouldn't take much pondering for the average guy to think of this 'logic' and assume that Putin is some brilliant statistician/strategist.
What would 'new' Russia look like? Well....if the war did go 365 days and economic 'hell' did arrive, then I'm pretty sure that 'ashes' business would take a minimum of two decades, and anyone in the thirty-to-forty age right now....would have a fairly harsh view of the era ahead.
If this all were true....how many Russians would exit the door and find life elsewhere? I'd go and suggest that 20-percent would be likely to leave because they don't have interest in some rebuilding stage.
But here's the thing....it's such an illogical concept....this all being intentional and to bring about the destruction of Russia....to reach a 'new' Russia stage....years in the future. So NO, Putin isn't that kind of strategist.
As of two weeks ago, the official number of Ukrainians registered in Germany was near 700,000. I noticed on N24 news this AM....around 80,000 Ukrainians were registered for German language/integration classes (free, paid by the German gov't)
The general belief? Long-term? There's a fair amount of belief (on the German side) that tens of thousands of Ukrainians will not be ever returning to the homeland....mostly because of the amount of war left, and the decades required to rebuild.
Anyone really negative about the Ukrainians in Germany? Well...no.
You might find ethnic-Russians in Germany with a particular attitude but it's nowhere near what existed in the 2013-2016 era.
How big was the ethnic-Ukraine group in Germany, before the war? The government puts the numbers at around 150,000.
But this also begs the question.....aren't a fair number of Russians fed up with the current political landscape, and looking for an exit as well? I read last week that the German government (since the war started) has approved around 400 work-permits for Russians who had job offers, and wanted status in Germany. I would expect more work-visas by the end of the year.
How this all influences Germany in the future? It's an unknown factor.
I sat this week and looked at a battlefield photo in the Ukraine....with a T-62 tank in the landscape.
T-62s....for most of you....were manufactured from 1961 to 1975. There were just over 20,000 of them made in this era, and it was the standard battle tank for the Soviet Union for about twenty years....being pushed out by the mid-70s and replaced by the T-72. A decade later....came the T-80 and that pushed out most of the remaining T-62s. In the past decade, an even newer battle-tank has been rolled out (the T-14).
So, it begs a question....why is the T-62 even being seen in use here in 2022?
My gut feeling? I think tank losses have forced the logistics people to go out to the Russian tank 'bone-yard' and review options. Somewhere out there....there's probably forty-odd T-62s used for Conscript or mechanic training....kept in reasonable decent shape over the past sixty years. They got the call....grease up the 'old lady' and send her off to one final war effort.
A bad sign? Well....if I were a Russian NCO and knew the limits/past history of the T-62....I'd question this matter, and wonder the long-term strategy. Course, I'm just a little 'cog' in this wheel.
The odds of the T-54 appearing shortly? Originally, there were supposed to be around 100,000 manufactured (mostly all in the era shortly after WW II to the mid-1950s). It was a fairly decent tank, without much in terms of luxury (compared to modern tanks). Wouldn't shock me if we arrive at mid-summer in the war, and a dozen T-54s show up for the Russians.
Well....it's reached the point that a legal case is proceeding....(RBB reports the basic facts)....to the state Constitutional Court.
General story? A national election occurred in September of 2021. Berlin seemed to have issues.
Statements have been made over the 2,257 polling stations for the city, and the judges will have to evaluate the 'mess'.
Lack of ballots at certain stations? Well....this gets brought up and there were a number of polling stations that simply didn't have the allocation of ballots as you'd think.
Remember, in Germany....as you move from apartment to apartment....you re-register at the city hall....so everyone is in effect....registered to vote. If they say in this one district that there are 3,211 'citizens'.....there should be 3,211 ballots on hand, even if only 60-percent show up.
But they had this other odd problem for the day.....it was also a marathon day in the city....so traffic was tied up in various ways.
The story of some polling sites shut down for two hours because they ran out of ballots? This comes up, and begs questions.
The story of 250-odd polling sites still open after 6:30 PM (mandated time to shut down)? Yeah, this is a major problem that begs questions as well.
Allowing 16-year olds to vote in a federal election? Various cases are noted, and illegal.....you can vote as a 16-year old in local elections....NOT federal elections. This begs questions.
The voting assistants involved? Well.....this gets interesting because they were given status as a volunteer.....getting the Covid shot earlier than regular people. So when the election training stuff came up.....a lot of these workers just said 'no'....they refused to be a voting assistant.
So, what'll happen here with the court? It's possible in several districts that the vote will be thrown out, but this decision won't occur until 18 months after the election.
There are six Berlin neighborhoods in this 'threat' area where the vote might be cancelled on results.
Affecting the national results? I doubt that it matters that much. No one says the numbers but I seriously doubt that it affected more than 10,000 voters. These are people who likely stood there for 90 minutes at a closed station (no ballots) and just gave up....walking over for a beer or heading home. Course, no one has said much on the 16-year old voting problem. There might have been 10,000 of them in the mix as well, and their vote shouldn't count.
The curious thing to me? We are eight months past the election, and just now reaching the court 'path'.
I noticed a short business related story over Russia two days ago. The way it went....a non-European/non-American cellphone tower company had some Russian contact them and asking about spare/used equipment.
The story went to the angle that up until the sanctions business occurred in Russia over the war....they utilized the services/hardware of a number of 'western' companies. Now? They are stuck with whats in use and waiting for serious breakdowns to occur.
What you will start to notice...probably by the end of summer....a couple of towns now report that cellphone coverage is now effective in only 50-percent of the towns, because breakdowns have occurred in other cities, and assets have been 're-deployed' for the more important cities. By late fall....probably 10-percent of Russian towns will report limited to marginal cellphone coverage....with people negative about paying for service that they can't connect to.
This lead me to this moment of pondering. Are there scenarios that would get the attention of the Duma and finally open some 'we-gotta-movie-Putin-out' scenario?
These are my five suggested scenarios:
1. Airport 'X' is expecting a plane to land at 4 PM. The plane doesn't arrive. Calls go out and the question comes up when they last saw them on radar. The airport has to admit that their long-range radar (out to 120 miles) was re-deployed to another more important airport two weeks ago.....so they only had a short-range radar (good out to 20 miles).
An hour passes, and some lumberjack crew calls in to report smoke in some region. Another two hours pass and they finally find the plane. Without the radar maintenance/parts....airline travel is sketchy and more dangerous.
2. A city water reservoir reports issues with their filtering system, and that the water is reaching a contamination stage. The filtering system? Made in France, and the filters aren't arriving to ensure safe water through the system.
3. A series of 500 car accidents occur in a month-long period.....due to driving with faulty brakes (European cars). No replacement parts or cheap Chinese knock-off brakes.
4. Cancer treatment clinics report that various treatment plans in Russia have reached a stage where the drugs needed or the analysis systems used....can't be provided or function.
5. A series of power sub-stations fail in the midst of summer heat, and spare equipment (usually from Europe) isn't readily available. So you have a town of 17k residents who go through nine days of zero power....while a jerry-rigged system is put into place with black-market equipment to bring them back on line.
There are probably a thousand scenarios like this....if you sit and think how connected things were in 2021. Putin or any of his high-level people grasping this? I seriously doubt it.
Well....they are in some dispute between Russia and Finland....for a fairly long period. So lets talk about them.
Aland Islands. If you gaze at a map of the islands...they sit between Turku, Finland (western coast of Finland) and Stockholm, Sweden. From Sweden, you have to go 30 km before you come to the first island, and 5 km from Finland to the first island.
Total number of islands? Experts say around 6,000 islands. Yeah, some are fairly small (100 meters across).
Population? 30,000.....more or less.
In the early 1800s.....a treaty by Russia and Sweden...ended up ceding the islands over to Russia. In the 1830s....the Russians tried to build up a 'fort' to signal regions of intent. That act ended in 1856....with the French and British taking control but 'handing' the region to Finland.
The Civil War of Finland (1917) changed things, with the Swedes establishing control temporary, and later the Germans controlling the region but acknowledging some ownership by Finland.
In 1919, a vote was held....with the vast majority of islanders wanting status with Sweden. Finland said no to the vote but agreed to demilitarize the whole region. Other than police....no military assets.
Currently? Since the Fin discussion started up on NATO status....the Russians have hyped up the Aland Islands. The general chatter? The islands can't be militarized.
Geographically? Does any of this matter? Well....gaze at the map and note that if you leave the harbor of St Petersburg....you will pass about 100 km from the islands. For some reason, Russians feel hyped up about this.
Do the islands have any economic value? Mostly for tourism, fishing, and agriculture.
One might suspect the biggest Russian discussion is that they want to have a say in how the islands fit into the Fin NATO scheme.
So, onto the Saimaa Canal, built in the 1850s. It's a system of 8 locks....which connects Vyborg, Russia to the Gulf of Finland. On paper, it's rented by Finland....so you pay them to travel through it, and they pay Russia for the lease.
Total length? 43 km.
The lease deal? Well....in the early 1960s...the canal needed restoration and Finland wrote up a deal....lease it to 'us' and we'll restore it. A 50-year deal was done.
In 2010, a second lease was accomplished.
How much is paid to Russia for running the canal? Currently, in the range of 1.2-million Euro a year.
Who uses the canal primarily? Well...mostly tourists. It's not exactly a trade-canal.
Various 'comments' have been made in recent weeks....that the canal is Russian property and should be only leased to Russians. How did the Fins work this deal? No one says much....but you get the impression that the Russians didn't have the technology or business nature to operate the canal....at a profit (without corruption and higher fees required).
If you were looking for petty or extremely marginal reasons to get hyped up in Russia over anything.....these two (the islands and the canal) are a joke. But a year ago....suggesting the Ukraine would be invaded over Nazis....would have been considered a joke as well.
In the next couple of months, you might see both regions mentioned and at least understand the value (or lack of value) over the islands and the canal.
Presently, there are only a couple of mandated places where you wear the Covid-mask in Germany: on buses, on trains, at a doctor's office, and while flying.
If you asked me about the in-stores business....I'd tell you that it ranges from 20-percent and 50-percent on people masked up....on their own....in grocery operations. The older the person....the more likely they will be masked up.
There's chatter from yesterday...that the Health Minister (Lauterbach) spoke to the necessity of mandating mask rules again by the fall.....expecting Covid to return.
Masks still being readily sold? If you walk into a pharmacy or grocery operation....there's always a box out with masks listed. No discounted price.....the stores aren't afraid of holding them for long periods. Covid test kits at the grocery stores? Almost never seen now.
I drove by the village Covid test center yesterday. It's still open but I doubt if the 'kid' running it.....has more than five customers per day. Free-testing was halted, and you have to pay 15 Euro for the test....out of your pocket. Closing anytime soon? I think the 'center' (private operation) will stick it out and wait for the fall to arrive, with massive Covid occurring....hoping the government's free test program starts back up.
As for the return of the mask 'period'? I expect the topic to be near the topic by mid-September. Course, we have that Monkey-pox thing to worry about now as well.
The Koln Administrative Court stood up today and said that the AfD Party can be monitored by the Office For the Protection of the Constitution. Totally legal....no issues standing.
What this means?
Well....the funnel of donated money will now be viewed and the phone chats (probably going beyond Germany) will be noted.
It might take a year, but I'd take a reasonable guess that several of the 'big boys' are going to be dragged into a court and asked for statements.
The look and feel that some of the VIPs in the party might be pro-Russian 'players'? This has come up more and more over the past two years. I won't say all of the top twenty members are this way....but there's going to be some cleansing period (probably in 2023), and they will lose voters over this.
Since February, nothing in Russia has been published over the estimate of the Gross Domestic Product, the current unemployment numbers, or the inflation index. NOTHING.
The Central Bank of Russia saying anything? No.
This morning, I noticed the German business community had three odd comments to add to this situation.
First, oil sold/pumped? Nothing.
Second, Russian national debt explained in any detail? Nothing.
Trade, into or out of Russia? Nothing.
What gets me here....you'd usually have a Putin-appointee who'd make up a number out of thin air.....to say things are bad but not that bad. Yes, a plain fake-number.
But in this case? They didn't even crank out a fake-number.
How long can you do this? I would speculate that you could go for a year at this game. As long as you aren't trying to get bonds or bank loans....saying nothing is legit.
Now, if I worked for any of the 350 banks in Russia....I'd kinda of track this information and it'd be of interest to the bank, the business community, and would put the view of the landscape into my mind.
I would suggest these people are sitting there....glossy-eyed, and wondering....just how bad are the six numbers?
Do the Oligarch folks even know the full story? I would imagine each knows one or two of the numbers, and if they socialized enough....they'd all have a good idea of the six key numbers.
Maybe nothing much matters here, and you just continue progressing ahead. But if these are extremely negative...how far can you progress?
Around Germany this morning, you might have noticed if you were out and about....using your EC to pay for bakery goods, or something at the local grocery....the EC card didn't work, and you needed 'bargeld' (cash).
There are around seven operations (major ones, like Netto, DM and Rewe)....that the EC card systems broke down.
Reason? So far, unknown. Terminals simply can't reach the banking system.
Hacker deal? No one says that yet.
Over the past twenty years, I have to admit that a fair number of Germans have gotten away from cash, and probably use their EC card for 90-percent of purchases. I had to get a bus-ticket this morning, and used the EC card for that three-Euro item.
If this was a long-term (three or four days) thing? Well....it'd present a problem in people going to ATM machines, and emptying them out to some extent. It'll be curious how they explain the root cause for this.
If you are viewing German news, or having a conversation with a German, and 'amok' comes up.....it probably takes a moment for you to grasp the comment and how they mean things.
'Amok' translated.....means one of three things: (1)in a frenzy (not in a positive way), (2) plain crazy/loco, or (3) acting in a dangerous irrational way.
At least twice a month, I'll see it used....usually by the police in decribing some criminal bizarre behavior.
Terrorists now in Germany? Most always....the cops use 'amok' in describing out their actions....because the guy/gal showed total disregard for human life....so they have to be loco or irrational.
Judges? They won't assign the 'amok' status until the problem-person has been examined and ID'ed by a doctor as unbalanced....then the person usually gets sent off to a permanent facility.
I sat and watched an hour of the 'show' yesterday....this was some chat over energy transition.
To be honest, I have a fair amount of interest in energy topics these days....so I'm willing to hear people discuss the matter.
The moderator gal (I assume Japanese-UK) asked a question at some point....directed at the audience (I'd guess at least 200 people in the room).
Question: how many of you own E-cars?
Four in the audience held their hands up. Yeah, that was it.
In Germany, if you counted both hybrids and E-cars....toward the end of 2021....there were 1.1-million of such vehicles registered. If you look at the trend line.....it's around 400,000 of the two (together) sold/registered each year now in Germany.
Yeah, it's not bad, but it's not that great either.
The thing is.....all these characters showing up at the WEF, and there just doesn't appear that much enthusiasm for E-cars. Begs a lot of questions.
But the nice thing here.....WEF doesn't go and rattle the audience to find their positions. They just smile and proceed on.
Well....this is an odd story.
Kanamat Botashov was a one-star general and was shot down in his SU-25 in Luhansk about four days ago.
So....here's the thing. Botashov was 63 years old, and retired out of the Russian Air Force in 2013 (he crashed a jet at that time and was pushed out the door....various chats suggest). The one-star general status? Null and void.
Not active duty? No. And there's several rumors to say he was a 'contractor'.
The SU-25? Close air support mission....in other words...a magnet for Stinger missiles.
Yeah, you can talk about age, and the idea that he's probably signed up for some quick cash via his company.
And I'm not that sure you should qualify the guy as a 'general' or 'officer'. Seems more like a contractor to me.
RTL's network news went and did a public standing on the political parties in Germany. Result?
The SPD Party is now at 21-percent nationally....in 3rd place. Greens moved ahead of them into second place at 23-percent. CDU Party at 28-percent, in first place.
Any shock? No.
You can generally say from the September election to now....the SPD hasn't had any success stories. It wouldn't shock me if we reached September, and the SPD folks were around the 16-perent range.
Toward the last quarter of 2020....a survey was done by Staista on Germans and social media.
Most Germans that you might encounter....will have a WhatsApp account. The number given is around 87-percent. I would offer the view that among kids 12-to-18....it's probably 99-percent who use it on a daily basis.
YouTube and Facebook? They come in around the 60-percent level of Germans.
Instagram? It's around the 40-percent range, and I would suggest it's primarily those under the age of thirty who use the media tool.
Finally, we come to Twitter.....being used by only 21-percent of Germans. How many are fake accounts? It's best not to ask that question.
I would offer the opinion that most Germans don't see it as a news media system, and probably half of the journalists will suggest it's more of a propaganda tool.....than a news tool.
I noticed this morning....some organization did a poll with people who'd done 'home-office' over the past two years.....asking how many of them wanted some part of this to continue. 19 out of 20 Germans said 'yes'.
My wife (German in nature) originally grumbled in 2020 as 'home office' started up. Her company was not that prepared for the experience. By the end of 2021....she was enjoying the one week home office.....one week normal office. Today? The company has gone to two days of home office every two weeks, and it appears that it'll stay around for a while.
I think a number of Germans have found that less stress comes out of the home office routine, with some folks sitting on their patio while doing a project for the office.
The chatter from the political side of trying to 'force' more home office? I find it odd that they want to regulate or mandate it in some way.
I noticed this brought up on N-TV news this AM.
So the Conscript crowd being used for the Russian military have contracts, and there's some issues brewing.
While used in the initial invasion to a great degree....a fair number were pulled back about a month into the war, and 'professional' Army members filled in. Those guys....the professionals....are tired and run-down. The odds that the Conscripts will return? If you only had three or four months left on your contract.....the odds are that you aren't thrilled about returning to the war.
Damaging your own hardware? This got brought up in the news piece....there's a fair amount of worry by the leadership of the Russian military that people are now disgruntled enough....to commit to sabotage.
Dead or wounded? Most people now put the dead/wounded total at 50,000-plus for the Russian military, and expect the number to continue rising.
After watching the whole interview/news piece....my thoughts are that Russia needs to reach some completion position by mid-summer (say July).
Last night (Monday), they ran the public forum show on ARD (Channel One, public TV)....Hart Aber Fair.
The topic? The cost of living. Probably one of the more interesting episodes they've done.
So lets start with the business expert who came on....who knows the stock market. She said in a blunt way....there's very likely to be an entire decade of inflation ahead for Germans
The baker who was on the panel? He suggested that bread prices will easily double (some things like cheesebrotchen, have already done that and will probably double again within a year).
The guy with five kids? He's on an extremely budget and there's no thrills or extras left after he fills the tank of his family vehicle....even though he and the wife are pulling in 4,000 Euro a month.
It was an emotional 60-minute forum, and one has to admit that reality has set in....full-blown recession is here, and it'll be around Germany for several years.
I read through a lot of news sources each week. In recent days, you see the name of Nikolai Patrushev a good bit. He's the Russian who is primarily attending meetings that Putin would normally go to....each week.
So, there's some belief that by the end of 2022....Putin won't be around, and Patrushev will be the guy to replace him.
Facts on the guy? He turns 71 this July. He was the director of the KGB (now today called the FSB, from 1999 to 2008). Health-wise? For 71 (presently), he's in decent shape.
Since 2008? He's been on Putin's Security Council.
His comments in early 2022? Well....he made a speech and strongly hinted that Russia had no plan to invade Ukraine. Folks kinda remember that.
If he is selected or agreed-upon? I would suggest that this is merely to get the country to March 2024....the next Presidential election. Someone else will appear at that point (probably someone in their early 50s, and be the party 'love-Russia' candidate.
Patrushev's chief job in this short period? I believe he's the guy who will have to find an exit door to the special operation, and bring some stability to the Russian economy (don't count on much).
It is Patrushev that will attend the G20 Conference in mid-November, and who will write some forty-line cease special operations order....expecting to just control one-third of Ukraine from day-X on.
He'll be unable to cease the special operation because of troops continuing to be in the claimed area, and depletion of manpower/tanks will continue through the end of 2022, and probably throughout 2023.
I'll even go and predict that some special term (NOT military operation) will be 'coined' for this period.....to resemble peaceful operations (with Conscripts killed daily in the name of peace).
Patrushev will be the guy to ensure the legacy....memorial....statue....for Putin, in 2023.
Last night, via the Anne Will public forum show (live) on ARD (Channel One, public TV).....the topic was 'Bigger NATO, more weapons, right solution to Putin's war'.
At some point, a retired German military officer (Roderich Kiesewetter, CDU Party member) made the comment: "I'm afraid the Chancellor doesn't want Ukraine to win this war."
Yeah, it kinda generated some heartburn among the guests on the show.
Over the past month, you can generally say (as a German) that the Chancellor and key members of the SPD Party aren't that hyped up to provide weapons to the Ukraine.
You can divide this among three general political beliefs: (1) no one wants Russia to start a terror war in Germany, (2) there's fear of nuke war, and (3) this is all pretty crazy and unscripted....so no one is sure about a success formula to end the mess.
About three times a day, if you watch public TV news (ZDF or ARD).....there's some expert analyst who hypes up the idea of a peace talks period. Naturally, they will hint that Russia must feel like they 'won' (they never explain what they won). Then the conversation will evolve into the Nazi business....that Russia must feel like the Nazi threat is finished. And finally, maybe giving up territory isn't a bad deal for the Ukraine.
If you asked the general outcome of the hour-long public forum? You can view it yourself here.
I would say that two things came out of the discussion group: (1) lot of talk over 'wait-and-see' attitude in the government (lot of Merkel behavior at play), and (2) it is a serious drain on the economy....triggering five-star recession issues.
As for viewers? Well....I'm not that sure that they had more than three or four million Germans viewing this, or reacting to it.
The mayor of Frankfurt (Feldmann) got himself into a bit more trouble.
Last week, he flew to the big soccer game in Seville, Spain....aboard a load of Frankfurt team fans. For some reason, he got all chatty, and then uttered some stupid commentary that he had been "hormonally incapacitated", based on activity of the ticket folks/flight attendants.
'Hormonally incapacitated'?
I think he meant, and the journalists jumbled it up enough....to mean he was 'horny'. But I won't swear by the meaning or the situation.
All of this has triggered more calls for the guy to resign.
Boozed-up? Well....people drink before they get on planes, and certainly drink during the flight.....so it's possible he just said some silly things while half-drunk.
Usually, the governors/mayors have some aide who ensures they don't go and get all chatty.....saying stupid crap. But maybe in his case.....he'd left the aide behind.
1. Focus says (this AM) that a Putin adviser has come out to note talks might occur shortly between Ukraine and Russia on ending the special operation. When? Left blank.
If I were betting? Some two-week ceasefire deal would be started by both. But one would question how Russia conducts the talks (they need to seem to 'win').
2. Over the weekend at Lüdenscheid (state of North Rhine-Westphalia), they were having a 'fair', and some discussion/argument started up. Then shots were fired.
40-year-old guy hit, and later died. Attack conducted by 'teens'. Cops looking for them.
3. Another weekend political poll done (Focus), with the CDU Party gaining another point (28-percent) and the SPD Party losing another point (21-percent. Lowest public opinion for SPD in 9 months.
4. I noticed off the police blotter for Wiesbaden....a lot of violent acts requiring the police for this past weekend. Some of these getting injuries for the cops.
5. There was a report by N-TV....kinda curious....Russian strategy on developing Mariupol, Ukraine (an industrial city for the past fifty years) into some type of Black Sea beach resort town. Whole area is full of destruction....dead bodies....toxic situation within the ground water. One of the most idiotic strategies I've heard so far.
6. US gave warning to it's citizens in Turkey....a massive demonstration in Ankara to occur, and Americans were told to avoid this....because of expected police violent activity to occur. Apparently, this warning got Erdogan's people disturbed and the US ambassador was called in to explain the action. My personal advice for any American in Turkey....stay as far as possible away from demonstrations of any type. If you want to attend demonstrations....go to Chicago or Minneapolis to attend.
German cops got called in Mannheim.....sometime after midnight....'you' need to come out to a grocery store parking lot.
So the cops show up. Here is a guy with a chainsaw....attempting to cut down one of the landscape trees of the grocery operation (closed for the evening).
45-year old guy.....somewhat drunk (test applied and confirmed).
Journalists say that when asked about the reasoning for the tree coming down....the guy didn't have much of an explanation.
I'll just have to say that it's pretty interesting, as drunk as he was (1.6 per thousand) that he was still safely operating the chainsaw.
The Frankfurt soccer club (Eintracht) won the European Cup (basically crowned the champ of 2021, delayed because of Covid) here in the past couple of days.
So, the plane flew back from Spain....landed in Frankfurt and there was this huge event for the team in the center of town.
Now, I'll describe this as what I saw (HR, our public TV folks, carried the whole thing live). This must have gone on for 4 hours.
I'd describe as the 'circus' arriving in town.
Getting from the airport to the mid-town area? Normally, you'd be talking about 25 minutes in rush-hour traffic. This took about two hours to reach the destination because of tons of people coming out on the roads leading to mid-town.
So they finally get to the city hall area, and then this 'funny' business starts up with the Lord-Mayor (Feldmann, SPD).
I got the impression (watching live), he (the mayor) wanted some orchestrated situation with him in full control. Every 'movement' was crap, and at various times....it felt like some puppet-show.
Walking down the hall with the two key players carrying the trophy.....he (the mayor) wanted them to hand it him....so he could present it to them (it'd already been presented by the Cup organizers). This was some goofy moment, and I kept thinking.....there just needs to be a minute or two of Mayor-speak, and then get out of the way.
The stuff on the balcony? Well....players and the mayor were allowed. Security kept the CEO and the sports director of the team....off the balcony area.
The permission for the parade into town? That went through several negation attempts, with the city just not being agreeable. At some point, the team finally said 'enough'.....we won't do it in the middle of town, it'll be over at the stadium (about halfway between the airport and mid-town).
At that point, the city realized all political-gain from the parade would be lost, and backed off the parade route deal.
Then the issue of convertible cars (being thirty of them) was too many.....so the city dictated only 15 convertibles could be used (why it mattered has never been explained). So there were 15 convertibles and some truck hauling the remaining folks following the convertibles.
Frankfurt being highly politicized? Oh, I'd say for the past decade.....this has been increasing in intensity. A fair number of people will say that the city is a comedy show (long before this parade business occurred).
Just about every element of change/evolution within the city.....has to be negotiated to some degree, with the city political folks getting some plus-up, or being seen as the change-management (nothing could happen without them in the middle).
If you view the Putin-War close up, and look at the entire landscape.....there are five questions left to ponder upon:
1. Where will the national funding for all the tanks, trucks, APCs, artillery lose....come from?
You are looking at a minimum of five years....going up to ten.....to rebuild the military to what it was on day one. Adding to this....they will admit on day one....they were a '75-percent' Army....simply not up to the task required in Ukraine.
2. How to handle the genocide and war crimes business?
Europe is in a pickle because their human rights people will targeting this issue for the next three or four decades. No one will allow it to sit there.
3. Can Russia rebuild its economy back to what it was in 2021?
Without trust? It's hard to gauge this question.
4. What is the legacy of Putin now?
Up until this situation.....he had mild to extreme trust of the general public. I'd say from the under-30 crowd.....it's less than 30-percent at this point in complete trust. His legacy might be marginal.
5. Does the Putin master plan evolve into remaking Russia into some hybrid-Soviet-Russia?
Between the Oligarch folks, the drama at the Duma, Russian social/news media, and the exit door swinging.....there's no stability.
I noticed late yesterday a comment from the Defense Minister of Russia ( Sergei Shoigu).
He says....there will be twelve new military bases established in the western region of Russia.....near Sweden/Finland, and that units would be deployed into this region....by the end of 2022. This to be a countermeasure against NATO's threat to Russia.
This region between St Petersburg and Helsinki....along the Baltic Sea? Well....this is civilized and somewhat urbanized (heavily wooded, lets admit).
Lets also go ahead and admit....it's a bit swampy and would remind folks of Minnesota's lakes region. Yeah.....a lot of mosquitos.
Once you get twenty miles north of St Petersburg? Well....yeah, that's extremely rural, without that many roads, and you start getting the 'boonies' feeling.....being in the middle of nowhere.
The further north you get....the boonie-index doubles up. You will find towns there with a thousand to three-thousand people....but it's mostly small-town life, lumber employment, and a fairly isolated lifestyle.
Putting a dozen military posts out there? My guess is that they've got a list of places along the Fin border which were old USSR bases in the 1970s/1980s, and they intend to drive a couple of trucks up (500 to 1,000 troops each, with a couple of tanks), and put the Russia flag up.....to say base 'X' exists.
They'd show up with paint....some beds....making it a miserable deployment experience.
For Putin's mind, Shoigu has accomplished the job. The reality of this? The conscripts will be happy because they aren't deployed to Ukraine, and whoever gets the officer assignments will be bitter over the isolation, but happy they aren't in the Ukraine.
As winter arrives? This will be a fairly harsh reality to survive.
So onto topic two.....mobilization of Russian men up to age 50.
There's a draft legislation piece in the Duma....which would allow Russian men over the age of forty but under age fifty....to sign up and be a military service 'worker' (it's labeled like an NCO).
The odd thing? No one much talks real basic training or combat training.....you'd mostly be doing common everyday chores.
Passage? No one says much. They are arguing about manpower shortages but all of this is really contingent upon the military operation. If you still have this running by the fall period.....you start to wonder about the national structure and how things will work in 2023.
If you bring in half-a-million 'old' guys.....who will be doing the normal non-military work....to bring in the normal tax revenue....that the government functions upon?
I hate to suggest it....but this sounds like one of the thesis/white papers that I noted Air Force Captains writing for their masters degree program....suggesting something pretty radical without acknowledging consequences or zero-payback.
For reality TV entertainment value....I will give it a '10'.
Well....over the past three months....a fair amount of chatter has started up over two ministers in Chancellor Scholz's cabinet. Defense Minister Lambrecht (SPD) and Minister of the Interior Faeser (SPD).
Some of this chatter is over management style....some over mistakes made.
If you went to the resume of each....looking for some balance or background to fit into the work required.....most people would say that the two are lacking. Maybe if you gave them a full year to 'learn' the job.....things would be different.
A burden here?
This gets interesting. The SPD Party made it a big deal that women occupy prominent positions in the cabinet, and they countered that it ought to be fairly near 50-50 (male/female).
Of the sixteen cabinet jobs.....the SPD controls seven seats.
If they did remove the two from their jobs....from all of the remaining big-wigs of the party (female-wise)....are their any really gifted individuals for the Interior Minister or Defense Minister job? No.
If the two remain in the jobs and the spiral continues? It hurts the voting situation in various state elections (over the remaining elections in 2022, and into 2023).
Elevating men into the two jobs? Well....it'd just trigger journalists to get hyped up about how unfair it is.....women can't have these jobs.
So, it's a lose-lose type dynamic.
Well...back around twenty years ago, the EU had this fantastic idea. They wanted all cars in Europe to be manufactured with an 'alert' system, where if you drove off a cliff into a 'pit'.....you could push a button and this alert would go out. Someone would come to rescue you.
The history to this? Around 1999, some folks met up and discussed a 'problem'. Folks today argue over this, and to be honest....cellphones were reaching a stage where they would have been the perfect answer for the problem. But instead....this group of EU bureaucrats decided that a car alert system had to be the answer.
For about seven years, this idea lingered. You couldn't find anyone much who favored the idea being pursued.
Around 2011, it got picked-up and dusted off. Again, with cellphones suggested as the best solution.....that got pushed back, with the mechanism needing to be a button on the car itself.
So in 2018, the standard was stamped by the EU....if you made a car, you had to have the alert-button/system included (not optional, but mandated).
When the wife and I went in 2019 to pick up the new Audi at the factory....the 'trainer-lady' spent several minutes talking about the button (it's overhead and has a covering over it).
After the whole presentation....I sat there and thought....in 99.9-percent of accidents....this is not necessary. In fact, you'd have to be in some fairly remote region....driving off a cliff....for this mechanism to make sense.
So, back to Ford.
Since 2018, For was required to put the mechanism on their cars. Ford didn't own any patents on the system. The radio chips put on the Ford cars to fulfill the EU regulation? Well....they didn't pay any license fee from the companies that developed/patented the systems.
Ford got dragged into German court. Court finally said this week....'enough'....you need to work a deal up to make the people suing happy, or we halt your production.
There's even text in the court order....that things could get nasty, with cars being seized at dealerships.
What it'll cost here? The numbers suggest 200-plus million Euro.
All of this over a mechanism that is marginally of value? This is the curious part of the story.
To this date, I can't find any data to say in Germany....that someone has activated the button.
Well....if you were a PhD type political science 'wizard'.....you'd have to open up a decent bottle of gin, and figure half of it gone by the 60th minute of conversation.
I doubt if anyone in the Duma really knows the insider situation with Putin, or how change sixteen to the master plan is just around the corner.
At this point, you can reason that Putin isn't a military genius, an expert on economics, or brilliant at statesmanship. You might say that he believes his own created propaganda (Nazis around every fencepost), that he still longs for the old Soviet Union (even if he were a bitter failure), and that he has no idea what the true capability of the Russian army is....at present.
There's fairly good odds that he's sick, and somewhat medicated. Some folks think he's dying.
He'd like to be remembered as the master of Russian destiny as he passes....with thirty-meter statues built around the corner to honor his legacy.
Over the next decade, I'll predict at least three-hundred books written of the invasion and the master strategy of Putin.....most will be trashed because nothing will make sense.
People sitting in universities and trying to get insight about this era? I doubt that you can really assemble the data in any logical, coherent, or understandable fashion....other than saying it didn't make sense when it happened and five years later.....it still makes no sense.
So settle....this is simply a moment of reality TV....in the extreme version.
Well....it's not a 'shooting' per say, as you would imagine. Some of this story....since yesterday, has changed.
An armed guy (age 21) came into the Lloyd Gymnasium, and ended up attacking an employee (female).....who is presently in still serious condition.
The guy attempted entry at 9AM....with a crossbow.
Because of testing underway, the building was not at normal levels of kids in the school.
Cops say (at least presently)....that guy seems to have 'some' mental issues (but they aren't detailing what).
Other weapons? All that's said is that he had two knives and some type of pistol (this isn't clear about it being a real gun).
Reason for the attack? No one has figured much of anything out. It does not appear that the guy has any connection to the woman, the school, or the community. So, I'd call it another 'nutcase-attack'.
License or law to prevent cross-bow ownership in Germany? NO.
There is a law to define them as weapons, and a juvenile (minor) can't operate one, without an adult in company.
1. The German Bundestag voted last night and agreed to drop for 3 months (June, July and August) the gas tax (will drop if you figure VAT into it as well.....35.20 Euro cents). Diesel will be less so.....only going down (with VAT figured) by 16.7 Euro cents.
How bad is the fuel price currently? Yesterday, I drove by the station, and it was 2.10 for E-10 fuel.....per liter.
What'll happen after 1 September? I suspect people will be shocked at the retreat effect. My advice.....enjoy it while you can.
2. The 9-Euro Bahn ticket? That was passed, but it has to pass the Landtag situation and the gov't only put 2.5-billion Euro into the pot to cover 'losses'. The Bahn and states have said it's not enough (careful not to say what it should be....I'm guessing they want a minimum of another billion Euro).
On making use of the ticket? You can't use it for inter-city/ICE fast travel....it's designed for local or regional travel. I would strongly recommend against trying to use it for weekend travel, because of the massive crowds expected.
3. Weather shift? Several storm fronts passed through Germany yesterday, and the prediction for today....with heat mixed in.....a perfect situation for tornados to form.
4. Monkeypox reported in five European countries. Pretty good odds it'll be reported in Germany by early next week.
5. I noticed Mercedes making a statement that the end is coming for the A and B class series of vehicles. They were typically cars made for the working-class folks. Where they go next? More luxury-class vehicles.
6. Some hint of weapons delay for Ukraine by Chancellor Scholz? Some political chatter is going on....that Scholz is dragging his feet and wants delays built into the system. This is triggering some ill-will with his partner party....the FDP. It's also drawing negative CDU attention.
7. What the German Constitutional Court said about the mandated Covid vaccination requirements for those in the health field? Basically, they said that the Bundestag is within their 'power'. They aren't saying the shots make sense. Based on the Constitution....they can be mandated. How many folks in the medical field still are not vax'ed up? There is no number to trust, but I would estimate it to be near 10-percent. How they make up for the manpower losses if those are let go? It's best not to ask that question.
For those wondering if the Monkeypox shot is next? I would imagine by January of 2023....it'll be hyped-up and folks getting lined up for it.
8. Interesting new German comedy coming to the kinos/theaters....entitled: 'Stasikomodie'. Might be worth seeing....comedy over old DDR (East Germany) and how the Stasi was corrupted to a great degree. You can see the trailer here.
I sat down this week and analyzed the 9-Euro Bahn (rail ticket) deal....starting 1 June, and running for 90 days (basically each month....costing you 9 Euro for 2nd class travel...anywhere in Germany).
So here's the crappy part of the deal.....you are in Wiesbaden and want to travel to Berlin. Normally, without and discount, it's around 75 Euro. You could do this ticket....leaving at 6:30 AM and getting to Berlin at 16:30 PM. Remember, you can't use it for intercity/ICE (speedy trains).
But there's this other catch....for me, I'd have to change trains 7 times. I could do this with just four changes, but you'd have add two hours onto the trip.
The odds of a break-down or late arrival and missing the connection? Oh, with Bahn? It's a 99-percent chance that something will get screwed up.
As hyped-up as Germans are and thinking of this great 9-Euro deal for an entire month....you have to limit yourself to things within two to three hours....maybe changing trains three times at the most.
Using the ticket to get you up to the Dutch border? Yes, you could reach the last possible German station, and buy the Dutch ticket for a quarter of the price. That makes sense. Same with a ticket getting you to Lucerne or Vienna.
On face value....all this hype about the three months that this ticket will exist (9 Euro per month) is one thing. Reality is a totally different thing. Without ICE or intercity trains.....this becomes a rough deal for long-distance travel.
For about 3 years, I owned a Smart car. That ended around December 2009. For every positive thing I could say over the car.....there must have been three negatives.
It was a great car on gas mileage, but you had gently pull it along....to get the 41 miles per gallon. I usually averaged 28 mpg.
It was great to park in the city.
It maxed out at 130 kph (80 mph).
On the autobahn with a wind? You could feel any abrupt change in the wind, and any speed above 110 kph was dangerous.
I burned oil from day one on....usually half a quart every six weeks.
In snow and ice, it was crap. I reached a point where on the second winter....I bought a hundred pounds of sand, and place it on the passenger feet area.
The glass roof? In July and August....the temperature made the interior impossible when I got off work. I'd have to lower the windows and wait six to eight minutes for the interior to cool off.
The gas tank held 22 liters (5.8 gallons). I typically filled it up every three and a half days.
The AC unit was crap. It maxed out on power (top use power) at 34 C. Any outdoor temperature above that....give up, lower the windows and just suck air.
Headlight burn out? You needed a kid (about age 7) to reach in to yank out the old bulb and insert the new one in. Otherwise, you paid a mechanic for a full hour....to take the whole front-end off the car....to put the bulb in).
It was surprisingly easy to enter/exit the car. In fact, even if you were 450 pounds....the car was simple to enter.
There was no exit on the bottom of the car for oil to drain. My mechanic explained this to me....saying you needed a suck-up particular system to suck the oil out (which he didn't have). So I had to use professional high-grade mechanics for the stupid oil change.
The speaker for the radio (only FM) was cheapest you could possibly imagine.
After selling it.....I regarded this car as one of the most dangerous vehicles I've ever owned in my life.
I was watching German news last night, and some Ukraine-Russia war topic came.
So the way that this story goes.....Colonel X of a Russian unit got himself killed around ten days ago. We don't know.....maybe the Ukrainians did him in....maybe his own Conscripts did it.
Two days ago.....Colonel Y arrives (the replacement guy). Somewhere in the first six hours or so, after dropping his bags off and settling into the job.....he got whacked dead. You are left to wonder....did the Ukrainians do him in, or did his own Conscripts do it?
War works that way. On the positive side....both gentlemen got a medal of courage, and it opens up the system for a third Colonel to step in (and maybe a 4th guy as well).
1. What's the stance by Erdogan of Turkey on halting Finland/Sweden getting NATO status?
Basically, he says the Kurds in the two countries are a problem. Sweden has around 75k and Finland has around 15k.
The suggestion is....they influence the two governments. To be honest though.....Kurds make up almost 20-percent of Turkey's society, and you could make the argument that they also influence the government of Turkey.
Anyone's guess how this will work out.
2. The 9-Euro Bahn ticket vote today?
Yes, and the deal revolves the German federal government giving 2.5-billion Euro to Bahn to make this 3-month deal work.
Crapped-up? Some travel associations are projecting massive use, and massive failure of the Bahn. I would strongly recommend against using the Bahn/railway in June, July and August for weekend trips.
3. Natural gas exploration in the Black Sea?
Some reports say Romania is approving the process, and might be a major producer in the next five years.
I sat and watched N-TV news this AM, and there's talk that the Bundestag has finally decided....yes, thee should be a limit on members to the German parliament.
After the last federal election, the membership grew to 736.
The SPD-Green-FDP majority has established that it's 'bloated' and their new number? It'll be 598.
Agreeable and easy to pass? No one is saying that.
You would think it'd be set to the Landkreis (districts)....which come to 401.
Saving money? Well....each single member makes....per month, 10,012 Euro. So it adds up to a bundle to have 736 members.
I noticed this morning....German breweries are putting out a warning.
There is a national shortage of beer bottles brewing in Germany. Yes, shocking.
What they say.....two elements at play. First, to produce bottles requires energy (natural gas) and the prices are going up all the time. Second, there is a shortage of truck drivers in Germany.
What they say about production of more beer bottles? Well....cost has risen 80-percent in a year.
So there's a strong suggestion by the beer companies to people.....once you finish up a custon of beer.....drive over to the drink shop and turn it in. Don't sit there in the garage and build up a dozen custons.
Worry about beer pricing? I looked at the local listing from drink shop in my neighborhood.....without any doubt.....beer prices from 2021 and today....are about a 20-percent difference on pricing.
So, there's around seven cases of Monkeypox reported now in the UK. Normally, it'd be a African disease, and it's never occurred in Europe.
Similar to regular smallpox? Yes.
Symptoms? Day one: a headache, some fever, aching muscles, and exhaustion. Around day three...increased fever, rashes, and then some bumps (usually on the face).
Bad-off status? Well....in Africa, around 10-percent don't survive it, but that's in regions without normal western medical care.
Vaccine for it? None.
Treatment? You basically get some fever reducing things, and you use the typical smallpox logic.
Now....where it came from? Anyone's guess.
Yeah, if you got over the worry about Covid.....this is probably the next thing on your worry list.
UPDATE: RKI says Monkeypox is probably going to end up in Germany.
One thing you tend to notice....when police reports go around to violent acts in Germany....the chief weapon is a knife (not a gun).
Some brawl started up yesterday in Wiesbaden....oddly at 3:30 in the afternoon. Cops were called and when they got there....about a hundred people were standing there in some hyped way.
The police report?
The arriving team called for back-up.
A few minutes later....here's the wounded guy (mid-40s).....knife wound on his arm (bad, but not serious).
What he says....attackers came out of nowhere....with pepper-spray, and knifed him.
Reason? Left out of the report.
Yeah, on the west-end of town....which has a reputation now.
There's hardly a week that goes by in town where you don't hear at least different stories on violence and knives.
1. On the irrational scale, I'd put Putin currently (one to ten)....at a 9.5. Blame? I put it on three issues: Covid era where he didn't socialize with much of anyone, this continual propaganda crap with Nazis believed to be everywhere, and his 'disease'.
You can argue about the health report, but if you gaze at your TV.....he's all puffy in the face, and seems fairly chilled when it's a moderate spring day.
2. Putin was never a 'rocket-scientist', economist, or logical guy. He was simply picked because the insiders (the first Oligarch crowd) felt he was 'safe' and would allow them to continue their scheme.
3. Putin does not care about what other countries think about him or Russia....period.
4. Putin still believes in the two country super-power system, and Russia gets the automatic ticket to the two-country club.
Now, with all this said.....I think the guy is settled into dying (maybe a year left) and he thought this legacy of bringing Ukraine back into the Russia union was a super-positive thing.
The legacy? That's really the question to ask.
RTL (commercial German TV) ran a one-hour 'talk-to-the-Chancellor' segment last night....instead of journalists, it was regular Germans.
I'll just say that it was a rough experience for Scholz but he did OK.
But then came that one odd question.....'what if Putin goes nuts, what's supposed to happen then'?
I sat there and kinda wanted to hit 'pause' because it begs a lot of questions, and Scholz is not the person to give a legit answer to this.
If you asked around with regular Germans....probably 40-percent would say that Putin is acting irrational and is unsafe to be some national leader. Course, the same group would say that over Biden, and Trump.
Scholz stumbled his way through that answer.
1. I sat and looked at overhead imagery of the river-crossing 'massacre' that occurred three days ago....with the Russians trying to run a pontoon-bridge situation. Just analyzing this with my past intel background.
This area requiring the pontoon-bridge? I'd say at best....it's maybe 200 ft. I would question the depth of this, or if the status is 'river' or should be called a 'creek'. Maybe it was 20 feet.
What the experts say is that 450-odd Russians died there in some miserably-conceived crossing scheme. I don't think the Conscript guys had done this much, and the expert or two they had around....probably had always done these in exercises with no opposing forces in the local area.
If you'd made it to the other side alive.....then what, when the battle started up and pontoon-bridge got blasted? How did these idiots get back across the stream?
2. Some report via Focus this AM....buildings on fire in Russia (Kursk, about 50 mile from the Ukraine border). Ukraine isn't saying they are responsible. Pretty odd deal....maybe pro-Ukraine Russians involved? Based on the description....I'd say it was a M-95 situation (mortar can handle 8.3 miles range).
Course, this could be Russian contracted troops who were told to blast Russian sites to ensure fear continues.
3. Brit Guardian paper says (BS-factor of '5')....that Putin is currently managing the war himself....making decisions that typically would be a Colonel or 1-star General would make. Sounds a lot like Hitler's method in 1940s.
4. Last night on Russian state TV.....analyst went into a strong blunt negative commentary about the special operation. He kinda hints that all this effort by the Ukrainian has been successful, and there's no real payback on dead Conscripts. It may be that they are preparing the public for the replacement of Putin.
5. Germans admit a unusual problem for granting 'welfare' payment to Ukrainians in Germany. These 'payment' slips are made on special paper, and there is a national shortage of the particular paper. Why they can't go digital? Well....it'd be interesting to hear this answer.
North Rhine Westphalia election results? No shocker, went along with expected polling.
CDU: 35.7-percent.
SPD: 26.7-percent
Greens: 18.2-percent.
FDP: 5.9-percent.
Linke Party: 2.1-percent
AfD Party: 5.4-percent.
Big gainers? Greens. Big losers? SPD.
The basic territory of the Ukraine? You can say about sixty-percent of the country existed prior to 1917.
From 1922 on? About forty-percent of the country was 'added'.
Yeah, it's a map in continual evolution.
That western 'chunk' added in 1939-1945? That was formerly Slovakia-Austria-Hungarian territory.
I essayed a piece on the knife attack aboard a Aachen region train from Friday AM, so this is the end results.
The Iraqi guy (31 years old) had been on a review list in 2017. There was some suspicion of him being an extremist. At some point, the point could not be proven and he was lifted off the suspicion list.
Based on investigation efforts on Friday and Saturday....the judge has put the guy into a mental-holding facility. He is considered full-up mentally ill.
Yes, charges are still on the list (dangerous bodily harm and attempted murder).
So far, they haven't found any grounds to say the guy is a religious fanatic or Islamic terrorist.
It would appear, if you glance at various journalist's commentary and social media....the guy is a plain up-and-up paranoid schizophrenic type. I would imagine for the whole of the past five years.....he probably was in a state of being messed-up and no one really wanted to deal with it.
On the positive side....he didn't kill anyone. He probably did freak out 200-plus passengers, and some will have fears for the rest of their life over this guy's behavior.
Now? More or less....the Germans are stuck with a guy who needs to be in a secure mental facility with 24-hour care/attention. Yes, soaking up more tax revenue and requiring baby-sitting until he passes on. This is one of the big negatives of the open-door policy and how things get negative public attention.
I suspect the court will still hear the murder/bodily harm charges (probably before the end of 2022), and quickly will some expert mental health experts step up to say he's just not sane. At that point, the judge will sign the paperwork to send him off to a secure facility (permanently).
Something I worry about? If you walk around Wiesbaden on any given summer day.....you probably will come across a couple of questionable folks (certainly not terrorists) who seem a bit bothered (maybe too many butterflies in the air....maybe too many people wearing yellow shirts....maybe you sat on their favorite bench....maybe you were eating chocolate ice cream), and then you get a dose of their mental issue.
I would suggest that 95-percent of them carry no weapon, and it's just a verbal confrontation. The ones who feel continual threats to their safety? Oh, they probably are carrying a knife and that's what you have to worry about.
NO.
To lay this out....as part of some 'get-over-Covid' situation, the German government wants to offer a local/regional Bahn card (monthly card) for 9 Euro (for entire month), for June/July/August. Yes, 27 Euro buys you a go-anywhere situation.
Note, it's not for use on ICE train (high-speed) and it's second class only.
The chief problem at this point? While the fed folks planned this out....the cost factor is laid at the state level, meaning they lose money.
Presently, the CSU Party is saying 'NO', and the deal must be approved by the Federal Council (the sixteen state assembly).
I have mixed feelings over the deal.
The rail cars will be overflowing for summer travelers, and the only way you'd survive this as a regular traveler....is to go by first class.
It's only for local or regional travel. So if you were in Frankfurt and wanted a day trip to Koln or Heidelberg.....the ticket makes sense. If you were thinking of going from Frankfurt to Paderborn? Regional train? That would be a four-hour trip, one-way (avoiding ICE).
If you had a whole week and just wanted to hit five German cities in the south (one day each), then the ticket makes sense.
1. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov spoke up and described the war as a 'hybrid war'. Meaning? He didn't go into a lot of words over this...other than saying the west is clearly getting deeper into the war itself.
Generally, the meaning is....you start to include cyber-warfare, irregular warfare, and different political tones...to reach a state of war which isn't your regular typical situation.
2. Problems getting Sweden and Finland into NATO? So far, the Turks have raised a slight fuss....mostly over the Kurd community in both countries (total count, by my estimate, around 95,000 in the two Nordic countries). Erdogan wants some kind of promise that the Kurd community will not get any 'power' out of this NATO deal.
3. Ukrainian military intelligence suggests that the war will end by the close of 2022.
I would say this....at the rate of removing tanks and conscripts....Russia can't continue the current pace, without national mobilization and bringing in every last tank in their inventory.
4. European Song Contest (ESC) was last night.....Ukraine won (no shocker).
5. When is the next Russian Presidential election? 17 Mar 2024.
6. Ukraine is holding several hundred Russian Conscript bodies in refrigerator trains....no one from Moscow is calling or dealing with the release.
Back in mid-March....the federal government 'law' took place, where if you work for a medical establishment (including retiree home).....you must be Covid-vaxed.
Well....to be honest....the rule said you'd be fired or let to, if you could not prove your vax-situation.
Our regional public TV news (HR) brought this topic up. It seems that the government has mailed out letters to the 'bad boys/girls' who haven't proven their vax-status.
For Hessen, around 10,000 letters went out. Surprise.....few, responses have occurred.
Healthcare HR had to mid-April to clear up their situation, and that seems to have not gone well.
The layoff wave predicted in March? Well....it didn't occur. But the threat still remains.
My humble guess? The state mechanism will play along until the fall period arrives with more Covid showing up. Then I suspect a forced layoff rule will come down.
The general problem here.....already before Covid came along....they had a manpower problem. So just hinting a layoff, in the middle of a healthcare manpower crisis....isn't that smart.
One of the top ten things I grumble about over Germany....are bicyclists. Maybe in the 1980s/1990s.....they were few in number. Over the past decade, you can't maneuver in any urban area (walking or driving a car) without encountering them.
So last evening in Wiesbaden, we had that rare event occur....where one bicyclist ran into another bicyclist. One was a retired guy (70s).....the other in his 30s.
It appears they simply missed seeing each other, and a pretty hefty accident occurred. Yeah, the ambulance was called, and for the older guy.....it's a pretty serious accident (note: he was not wearing a helmet).
The thing I find curious here.....this street was closed off for two hours while the accident investigation (over two bikes) was conducted.
1. N-TV had a interview with the German SPD Party Chairman. He had the view that all of this war business....has put Russia and it's economy behind....probably for decades. "Prosperity, jobs, and life prospects" have been gambled away.
2. Ukraine is discussing what they see as a turning point in August.....where a new offensive occurs, and Russians are forced into a heavily lose-lose position.
3. Ukraine apparently has 41 Russians lined up for war crimes activity.
4. Russia halted supply of electricity to Finland, over that NATO thing. Sweden bumped up its production and made up for the loss. How much was Russia supplying for the Fin grid? It appears around 15-to-20 percent.
5. Germany says 700,000-plus Ukrainian refugees now in the country.
The sixteen state environmental ministers met today, and among the topics discussed.....the speed limit on autobahns came up again.
So, they believe that a temp-speed limit ought to occur (130 kilometers per hour on autobahns).
Any movement yet by the federal government? No.....other than talks.
Speculation? I'd give it a 80-percent chance that some speed limit deal will occur by late summer. It'll likely be a one-year situation.
Public acceptance? Well.....I think most Germans already drive 100 to 130 kph on the autobahns (say over two-thirds of people).
Me personally? If I'm on a open and very uncrowded autobahn.....I will usually go 130 to 160 kph. But I'll admit within the 30 kilometer range of Frankfurt....there's just no uncrowded autobahns to fit that profile.
What happens in 12 months? I personally think the temp deal, will extend to another one-year period.
At the end of that period.....it'll be permanent (my humble feeling). Probably 20-percent of Germans will grumble about this and try some legal ways to challenge the stance.
What the cops say.....out of Aachen (NW Germany):
1. 31-year old Muslim guy on a train.....went crazy and stabbed a couple of folks (6 total).
2. Nationality of the guy? Unknown, but the authorities admit he's been around for five-plus years.
3. Halting the attack? Well....there was a policeman (older guy, 60 years old) onboard, and came upon the attack. With a few passengers, he was able to subdue the guy.
4. No one seriously wounded.
5. This occurred around 7:45 AM on a regional train.
Well....here in Germany, the chat started up.
Qatar says 'no' to gay homosexuals showing up and having hotel rooms with other 'guys'. This has of course....infuriated FIFA.
Now, I could have told you this problem six years ago, but no one seemed to really think about the issue then.
Could you just show up with your buddy....both of you married and straight, and just ask for a 2-bed type room? Maybe.
But this just begs the next question....what if you showed up with some gal, who was not your wife....just your trampy-gal....would the Qatar folks get bothered by that as well?
Since day one of the war, via dozens of news sites....I've probably seen at least 300 different situations/images where unexploded ordnance has occurred. The rocket/missile/bomb just sits there....impacted into the ground.
In my Air Force era, this was always some part of the exercise, and areas would be marked off, with warning signs.....until Sarge showed up to dismantle the bomb.
My general question is....in real world situations....just how often does this occur?
Even if you had forty different crews running around Ukraine.....to handle this, I'd suspect they've got enough work for several years.
It just seems like a lot of the explosives....were of such poor quality....that it was just a demonstration of incompetence.
