It's day 76 for the Russia-Ukraine war. It's time to look back.....and to look forward. First, the past 76 days:
1. Whatever plan 'A' or 'B' or 'C' was for Russia, has developed onto a twenty-odd plan list.....none having much success.
2. Sanctions-wise, it's a bit of shock over what has developed. Europe is hurting itself, but the only real income for Russia was coal, natural gas and oil....so for the second half of 2022....it's going to be a noticeable trend how they stumble along.
3. Pentagon admitted this week that various minor events are occurring where conscripts simply refuse to advance to the front or take orders from officers. It's an extremely bad sign over this.
4. Putin's success? He has a fair number of Russians believing in his propaganda, and can enjoy success at home.
5. For what Putin initially planned....realistically, he should have had twice the manpower/equipment. I would imagine if he had been presented that scenario....he would have refused it, and said the job could be done with half the tanks and manpower.
6. Short-changing the Russian military modernization (flipping funds for the Oligarch people).....has a lot to say about the current mess.
7. I've seen a number of video pieces where Russian bombs fell.....but never went off (either built that way or the 'conscript' loading them failed in his job).
8. Logistics-wise, Russia did a pretty crappy job and you could probably write a 700-page book over various failures to bring fuel, ammo, and food to the front.
9. All of this....about Nazis in Ukraine? That's not selling well.
10. It's hard to find any military analyst at this point who thinks Russia can still 'win'.
So, looking at the next 74 days and what the future brings?
1. The arrival of newer military assets for the Ukrainians will change the dynamics of the war. From mid-June to late-summer, this will be a different type of war....one that Russia can't advance upon.
2. Sanctions, particularly upon the insurance/freighter industry....will hasten the downfall of the Russian oil industry by late fall.
3. If Russians don't have money flowing....then China can't market much on their economy, and a stagnant period will start up.
4. At the pace of things, I'd expect another ten-odd Russian generals to meet their end by late-summer.
5. The public in Russia will get hints each week....that to replenish the military assets lost....it'll require ranking expenditures, and education will be facing a harsh cut before the end of the year. Reality will sit in at that point.....with people grasping the real financial cost of the operation.
6. There will continue to be Russians (with job-professions) who pack up and leave Russia. At some point in the next 74 days....they will have to halt/prevent this exodus.
7. At some point, I expect the Russian Conscripts to execute a few officers and stage a rebellion, which starts a Russian unit versus Russian unit 'war'.
8. 15 November becomes an interesting day....both Ukraine and Russia have been invited to the G20 meeting in Bali. Whether Putin is healthy enough for the meeting is an unknown. I expect some type of end-game to be staged where the war just ends.....with no winner/loser. My best guess is that Putin doesn't attend, and the replacement to Putin is the likely character to be brought in.
9. The damage done? Both in terms of destruction and economics? Massive, and some of this will take over twenty years for recovery.
10. Whatever trust Russia had gained since 1945.....has been lost, and Europe's worrying about nuclear weapons now.....will be a major topic for years to come. Belief in NATO? It's doubled now in nature.
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