I'm of the belief that we are probably in the last year of decent health for Putin, and at some point by next summer.....he will pass on. So the question....what happens next?
I would suggest four things:
1. The two Oligarch groups (inner circle, and outer circle)....will fight over this chaotic moment. The inner group probably will lose their status and 'toys'....making them extremely angry, and I believe for a two-to-four week period.....a Oligarch 'war' will take place.
Russians will be shocked over the mafia-type war that envelops the country. The economy....as bad as you might think exists now...will grind to a halt for this period.
2. Picking a new 'Putin'? I think the reaction will be.....find some guy around age 65 who is likeable to the remaining Oligarch folks, and just beg for some exit from the Ukraine business. Restoring the western connection to the economy will be his number two job (after funneling more money for military infrastructure for what was lost in the war).
3. The funeral for Putin will be like some North Korean episode, with people falling down in a weeping fit. It'll be like some Jesus-event with people unable to handle the emotions of the moment.
4. Russians will be asked immediately upon replacing Putin.....to accept sacrifice for the great losses of the 'special operation'.....meaning the military budget has to double for a ten-year period, and every government program has to be cut for this sacrifice to work.
I would expect a lot of Russians to stand there and ask why sacrifice is necessary. Then the blunt truth will be laid out that half the tank assets don't exist anymore, and some things were never admitted by Putin.
All of this to lead to a resolved situation and no sanctions? Well....no, not until each Russian soldier is removed from Ukraine, the war-crimes matter is resolved, and some debt is paid on destruction. That is the legacy left by Putin.....probably a twenty-year period of negativity.
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